低基数效应、反内卷上游行业毛利率改善、个别行业投资收益确认是利润高增的主因。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 8月规模以上工业企业利润同比大幅回升21个百分点至19.8%， 低基数效应、反内卷上游行业毛利率改善、酒饮料茶行业投资收益确认， 是推动利润同比大幅走高的三个主要原因。 8月利润同比高增的第一大贡献是反内卷带来上游制造业利润率（暂时性）改善。 8月工业企业利润总额6726亿元，同比多增1114亿元，其中上游制造业利润总额同比多增555.6亿元，贡献了49.9%的利润增长。 上游工业企业利润的大幅好转主要来自于黑色金属和有色金属， 8月两个行业利润总额分别为193、339亿元，同比多增336、128亿元。 行业利润增加主要是因为在反内卷驱动下，行业毛利率上行。8月黑色金属加工业的毛利率为7%，去年同期为2%（年内最低），因此在相 同营业收入下，毛利润多增329亿元。有色金属加工业的毛利润同比多增113亿元。 8月利润同比高增的第二大贡献是个别行业的投资收益确认发生变化。 8月投资收益同比多增502亿元（同比增长66.6%），贡献了45%的利润增长，剔除掉投资收益之后，8月工业企业利润同比增长13%，环 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Growth - In August, industrial enterprises' profit growth rebounded to 20.4% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 21.9 percentage points[3] - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year[7] - Revenue growth in August was 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0 percentage points[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profit and Revenue - The increase in profit growth is primarily attributed to the release of profits from state-owned enterprises, which saw a 56.8 percentage point increase to 50.0% in August[3] - The "anti-involution" effect contributed positively to profit growth in sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery, adding 3.9 percentage points[3] - Export chains and the "anti-involution" sectors remain crucial supports for overall revenue growth, with upstream manufacturing revenue growth rising by 4.7 percentage points to 5.0%[3] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Pressure - As of the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory fell by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%[3] - The average turnover days for finished goods inventory remained stable at 20.5 days, indicating persistent operational pressure on enterprises[3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, reflecting ongoing challenges in cash flow management[3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Future observations on industrial enterprise profitability will focus on the sustainability of revenue growth in the fourth quarter, especially against last year's high base[3] - Potential limitations on volume growth may reduce the space for profit growth driven by price increases through "anti-involution" strategies[3] - External economic volatility and uncertain policy responses pose risks to future economic stability[34]