Core Viewpoint - The return of inflation is one of the macro themes in China for 2026, driven by three main factors: the marginal demand for commodities like copper due to artificial intelligence, the decline of the US dollar index since 2025 enhancing the financial properties of commodities, and resource populism increasing global investor concerns about commodity supply [1][2]. Group 1: PPI Trends and Influences - Insufficient domestic demand is the primary drag on PPI from 2022 to 2025, with real estate investment being the decisive factor contributing over 60% to the decline [3][4]. - The PPI's low performance and the divergence between nominal GDP and real GDP highlight the negative impact of price declines on economic perception, with PPI being negative for 39 consecutive months by the end of 2025 [3][4]. - The contribution of various factors to PPI changes shows that demand factors, particularly in real estate, have the most significant impact, while supply and oil price factors contribute less [4][10]. Group 2: Industry Contributions to PPI - Since 2022, key industries such as oil and coal processing, chemical manufacturing, and non-ferrous metallurgy have significantly increased their contribution to PPI, shifting the pricing power from traditional real estate to energy, resources, and high-end manufacturing [10][11]. - The eight major industries contributing to PPI include oil and coal processing, chemical manufacturing, and electrical machinery, accounting for approximately 70% of the overall PPI changes [10][11]. Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market has entered a significant upward cycle since the second half of 2025, supported by a depreciating dollar and global credit expansion, which improves the financial environment for commodities [2][24]. - Industrial metals have seen substantial price increases, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 18.51% and 45.78% respectively since early 2025, driven by structural demand and supply constraints [17][26]. - Energy and chemical sectors are currently lagging in price recovery but are expected to gain momentum as geopolitical tensions and domestic economic recovery support demand [21][22]. Group 4: Future PPI Projections - The PPI is likely to turn positive in the second half of 2026, with key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and copper expected to drive this change, showing a strong correlation with PPI movements [2][36]. - The analysis indicates that the PPI's upward movement will be influenced by the ongoing price increases in major commodities, with a potential earlier turnaround in PPI if commodity prices rise significantly [39][40].

Group 1: PPI Trends and Influences - Domestic PPI has been in a downward trend from 2022 to 2025, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand, with real estate investment contributing over 60% to the decline[6] - The core logic behind the PPI decline is not merely supply imbalance but rather weak domestic demand, particularly in the real estate sector[6] - The PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 2026, with significant contributions from rising commodity prices, particularly iron ore, crude oil, coal, copper, silicon, and lithium carbonate[51] Group 2: Commodity Price Dynamics - Since the second half of 2025, international and domestic commodity prices have begun a significant upward trend, driven by a depreciating dollar and increased structural demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy[2] - Key industrial metals such as copper and aluminum have seen price increases of 18.51% and 45.78% respectively since early 2025, while lithium carbonate prices surged by 93%[27] - The financial environment for commodities has improved due to a weakening dollar, which historically correlates with rising commodity prices[34] Group 3: Sector Contributions to PPI - The contribution of various sectors to PPI has shifted, with energy, resources, and high-end manufacturing gaining pricing power, while traditional real estate has diminished[1] - Eight key industries, including non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical manufacturing, now account for approximately 70% of the overall PPI pricing influence[14] - In the latter half of 2025, the month-on-month PPI growth was driven significantly by non-ferrous metallurgy, contributing 15.40% to the increase[15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on February 10, 2026, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from February 3 to February 9, 2026, shows values ranging from - 109 to - 104 yuan/ton. The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are provided, with basis values such as 178.39, 190.88, etc. and the ratio values like 0.1361, 0.1368, etc [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: Inter - month spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, as well as inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol. Basis data for these chemical commodities from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are also presented [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, along with inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil. Basis data for these black metals from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are also shown [19][20] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are presented, with values like - 340, - 120, etc [28] - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on February 9, 2026, are provided [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are given. Inter - month spreads for multiple agricultural products and inter - commodity spreads for some agricultural products are also presented [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are provided, along with inter - month spreads for these stock indices [52][54]

Core Insights - In 2025, Jiyuan's total import and export value exceeded 50 billion yuan, reaching 52.77 billion yuan, ranking second in the province for import and export scale, with the highest export growth rate in the province [1] - The significant growth in Jiyuan's foreign trade, nearly 10 billion yuan increase from 2024, reflects the resilience and vitality of local industrial development amid global supply-demand fluctuations and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Traditional Industry Upgrades - Jiyuan's foreign trade growth is supported by the upgrade of traditional industries, with companies like Henan Jinli Jin Lead Group enhancing supply chain resilience through diversified raw material sourcing and innovative smelting technologies [2] - In 2025, Jiyuan's silver exports reached 14.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, making it the top exporter in the country, with high-purity refined silver accounting for 30% of national exports [2] Group 2: Structural Optimization - The entry of new energy special vehicles from Desai Automotive (Jiyuan) into international markets has injected new momentum into Jiyuan's foreign trade, with exports totaling 885,000 USD in just six months [3] - Jiyuan has achieved significant milestones in various sectors, including being the top exporter of planting seeds in the province for five consecutive years and making breakthroughs in rabbit meat and complete vehicle exports to Europe and the U.S. [3] Group 3: Policy Support - Jiyuan has implemented over 17 million yuan in various foreign trade support funds to help enterprises stabilize orders and expand markets, with tailored support plans for large and small enterprises [4] - The number of enterprises with import and export performance reached 116, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, and the trade network expanded with 14 new trading partners [4]

政府工作报告安排2026年重点做好十个方面工作，第一项就是纵深推进融入和服务全国统一大市场。与 会代表委员结合实践与研究，为河南把握战略机遇、破除发展壁垒、激发市场活力建言献策，凝聚起以 统一大市场建设推动高质量发展的共识。 "全国统一大市场建设为我们传统制造企业打开了全新发展空间。其本质是打破区域壁垒，推动资金、 技术、人才等要素向更高效、更先进的领域集聚。这对万洋集团而言，是突破自我、重塑竞争力必须把 握的战略机遇。"省人大代表、万洋集团董事长卢一明深有感触。 责任编辑： 秦臻 省政协委员、郑州航空工业管理学院经济学院院长郝爱民则更关注区域联动与市场活力。他认为，河南 应充分利用自身的枢纽、市场等比较优势，更好地融入和服务全国统一大市场。"高水平区域联动，是 河南整合区域资源融入全国统一大市场的核心路径。"他说，这一联动不仅包括交通设施的联动，还涵 盖产业协同联动、要素市场联动、自贸试验区联动、科技人才联动等方面，为高质量融入和服务全国统 一大市场提供支撑。 "全国统一大市场，不仅在于大，还在于活力。"在郝爱民看来，河南的市场已经足够大，应进一步提升 市场活力。而提升活力，需要在营商环境、创新等方面下功夫 ...

Report Investment Ratings Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [6] - Rebar: Range trading [7] - Glass: Hold off [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Hold off or hold long positions lightly and roll [9] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [11] - Nickel: Hold off [12] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [13] - Gold: Range trading [15] - Silver: Bullish [15] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [17] - Caustic soda: Hold off [19] - Soda ash: Hold off [26] - Styrene: Range trading [19] - Rubber: Range trading [21] - Urea: Range trading [23] - Methanol: Range trading [25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [26] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [28] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short on rebounds [30] - Eggs: Avoid shorting in the short term [32] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound [41] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their respective market fundamentals, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international situations. It also analyzes short - term and long - term trends and risks of each product to help investors make decisions. Summary by Category Macroeconomics and Finance - Index: Affected by international trade policies, central bank policies, and market sentiment, it may range - bound in the short term but is long - term bullish [5] - Treasury bonds: Without significant negative factors, they may range - bound in a narrow range as there is limited impetus for further interest rate declines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Due to weak fundamentals, demand is sluggish, and supply disturbances may limit the downside. Short - term trading is recommended [6] - Rebar: With a slight over - valuation in price, weak short - term supply - demand contradictions, and a policy vacuum period, range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: With stable supply, weakening speculative demand, and limited downstream inventory digestion, it may range - bound around 1050 - 1070. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Supported by macro factors but with weak fundamentals, it may range - bound at high levels. Be cautious of pre - holiday profit - taking [9] - Aluminum: With stable supply, weakening demand, and cooling of market sentiment, it may adjust at high levels [11] - Nickel: Although stimulated by policy, fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold off [12] - Tin: With tight supply and stable demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and demand recovery [13] - Gold and silver: Driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's policy expectations, they are bullish. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is recommended for range trading [15] - Lithium carbonate: With supply disturbances and strong demand, it may range - bound [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, it may have a bottom. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [17] - Caustic soda: With high supply pressure and weak demand, it may range - bound at low levels. Attention should be paid to supply - side adjustments [19] - Styrene: With high valuation after a rebound, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. Attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber: With supply contraction but high inventory pressure, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21] - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to supply - side changes and demand trends [23] - Methanol: With weak domestic demand and strong local prices, it may range - bound. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and port arrivals [25] - Polyolefins: With increasing supply and weakening demand, they may range - bound weakly. Attention should be paid to cost and demand [25] - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and cost support, it is recommended to hold off [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: With a decrease in global cotton output and an increase in consumption, long - term expectations are optimistic, but short - term caution is needed [26] - Apples: With slow sales in the main production areas and slightly improved sales in some secondary areas, they may range - bound weakly [28] - Jujubes: With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions, they may range - bound weakly [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short term, prices may range - bound due to supply - demand games. In the long term, be cautious about the upside. Range - bound trading and hedging are recommended [30] - Eggs: With high valuation and supply pressure in the medium - long term, hedging of post - holiday contracts is recommended [32] - Corn: With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term loose supply - demand, be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [34] - Soybean meal: With short - term support and long - term pressure, short - term range trading and long - term bearishness are recommended [35] - Fats and oils: Bullishly range - bound. Hold previous long positions and exit previous spread - narrowing strategies [41]

每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into trend short, oscillating short, oscillating, oscillating long, and trend long. Based on quantitative indicators, they are divided into short - biased, oscillating, and long - biased [5][9] - Macroeconomic policies in 2026 focus on strengthening the domestic economic cycle and expanding domestic demand. Fiscal deficits, debt, and expenditures will remain at necessary levels [11][12] - Different sectors of the futures market, such as macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical, show different trends and investment opportunities [15][19][25][34][45] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental and Quantitative Analysis - **Fundamental Analysis**: Futures varieties like coke, coking coal, and CSI 1000 index futures are in a trend short or oscillating short state; varieties like lithium carbonate and 30 - year bonds are oscillating; and some varieties have an oscillating long or trend long outlook [5] - **Quantitative Analysis**: Varieties like silver futures and soybean No. 2 are short - biased; iron ore and asphalt are oscillating; and manganese silicon and methanol are long - biased [9] 2. Macroeconomic News - A series of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand are introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan private investment special guarantee plan and loan discount policies for small and medium - sized enterprises [11] - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns trigger a global bond market sell - off, with significant yield increases in Japanese and US long - term bonds [12] - The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remain unchanged in January, marking eight consecutive months of no change since May 2025 [13] 3. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term operations should focus on volume and price, and consider profit - taking. The A - share market shows a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors, and the stock index may enter an adjustment phase if there is no further increase in volume [15] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to a decline in risk appetite. The yield curve of bonds remains steep, and there is a long - term expectation of monetary policy easing [16] 4. Black Commodities - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Macro policies have limited short - term impact on demand. Steel is in a de - stocking state, but downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and short - term steel may oscillate, while iron ore is relatively weak [19][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may oscillate and decline in the short term. Coal mine production and downstream procurement need to be monitored. The supply - demand situation may improve during the Spring Festival [21] - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron has a small supply gap, and it is recommended to go long on dips. For manganese silicon, it is advisable to hold short positions from previous highs and wait and see [22][23] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply is at a high level, and new capacity is expected. Glass has复产 expectations, and the supply - demand pattern may improve if production cuts are implemented smoothly [24] 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc inventories are increasing. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions can be held [26] - **Lead**: Lead inventories are rising, and prices are falling. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions can be held [27] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Demand is improving, and supply disruptions are emerging. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [30] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and should be shorted on rallies. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for policy guidance [31] 6. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: There is short - term supply relaxation, but long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is recommended for short - term trading [35] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar is in a season of high supply and demand. It is recommended for short - term trading in the low - price range [37] - **Eggs**: The pre - holiday egg spot price may weaken. It is recommended to treat the 02 - 03 contracts as oscillating [39] - **Apples**: The futures price may be strong. The market is in a game between supply support and demand constraints [40] - **Corn**: The futures price shows large differences. It is recommended for short - term trading or to consider the 5/9 reverse spread [42] - **Red Dates**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance in the consumption peak season [43] - **Hogs**: The market sentiment has peaked, and it is advisable to short near - month contracts on rallies [44] 7. Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East support prices, but supply is in surplus. Prices may weaken as the market returns to fundamentals [47] - **Fuel Oil**: Prices follow crude oil, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical factors [48] - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have high supply pressure. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation mindset [49] - **Rubber**: Affected by falling overseas raw material prices and rising inventories, it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [49] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It may rebound in the short term. Be cautious when chasing the rise [50] - **Methanol**: The supply - demand situation is improving. It is advisable to wait for a pullback and then consider a long position in the far - month contracts [52] - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated with a short - biased mindset due to high production and inventory [53] - **Asphalt**: Prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and the winter storage is in a stable period [54] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The market is strong in the short term, but demand is expected to weaken. Consider the 5 - 9 positive spread for PX and PTA [55] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Short - term prices are supported by high costs and demand, but it is advisable to short lightly in the long term [56] - **Paper Pulp**: The market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to international and macro factors [57] - **Logs**: The market is expected to be in a weak - balance state and oscillate [58] - **Urea**: The futures may rebound after a pullback as the market expects stronger demand [59]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing increased volatility, leading to renewed interest in cash flow strategies, with expectations for the Chinese stock market to challenge a ten-year high by 2026 due to economic transformation and capital market reforms [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, 2026, the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index (932365) rose by 0.68%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Xinhua Department Store (up 10.03%), Debon Logistics (up 9.97%), and Zhuhai Smelter Group (up 6.23%) [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) increased by 0.64%, with the latest price reported at 1.26 yuan [1] Group 2: Key Stocks and Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index (932365) include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Gree Electric Appliances, and others, collectively accounting for 53.78% of the index [2] - The Free Cash Flow ETF closely tracks the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index, which selects 100 listed companies with high free cash flow rates to reflect the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [1]

Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, the CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0%, the lowest level since 2009, while the PPI decreased by 2.6%[3] - December 2025 CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, matching expectations, while core CPI also rose by 1.2%[1] - The PPI for December 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, slightly better than the expected 2.0%[1] Core Insights - CPI has risen for four consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2023, with core CPI also maintaining above 1% for four months[2] - The PPI has increased month-on-month for three consecutive months, driven by the non-involution sectors, while oil and petrochemical prices continue to decline[2] - For 2026, CPI is projected to rise to around 0.7%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and a narrowing decline in rental prices[2][5] Price Trends - In 2025, food prices fell by 1.5% year-on-year, marking a 25-year low, with energy prices down by 3.9%[3] - Core CPI saw a modest increase of 0.7% in 2025, with significant contributions from household appliances and communication tools, which rose by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively[3] - The international gold price surge led to a more than 40% increase in jewelry prices, significantly impacting the CPI[3] PPI Analysis - The PPI for 2025 averaged -2.6%, the second-lowest since 2016, with both production and living materials prices declining[3] - The decline in PPI was exacerbated by weak demand and excess capacity in sectors like real estate and infrastructure[3] - In 2026, PPI is expected to stabilize around -0.4%, influenced by rising prices in coal, steel, and lithium due to increased demand[5]