一是产能持续扩张，竞争压力不断加大。近年来，我国酚酮行业呈现一体化、规模化和多元化发展态 势，产能持续增长。据卓创资讯统计，截至2024年年底，我国苯酚产能近十年的复合增长率达 13.65%，近五年增速为16.01%。尤其在2023年，7套新建装置与1套扩建装置集中投产，推动年度产能 增长率飙升至51%。当前酚酮产能扩张势头仍未止步，2025年苯酚总产能预计将突破735万吨。尽管苯 酚需求总量也在增长，但供应增速仍显著高于需求，市场正逐步转向供过于求格局，行业内部竞争压力 持续加剧。 二是市场价格承压走低，盈利空间难以提升。供过于求直接导致苯酚价格体系脆弱性增强，产品价格与 原料纯苯的联动性显著提升。今年以来，苯酚市场基本跟随纯苯价格震荡运行，在纯苯价格大幅走低的 背景下，苯酚现货价格一度跌破6500元/吨，创近两年新低。即便进入传统消费旺季"金九"，苯酚价格 仅较8月上涨217元/吨，同比跌幅近2000元/吨。行业开工率同样承压，上半年苯酚平均开工率仅为 72%，同比下滑5个百分点;自第二季度起，多数生产企业陷入持续亏损。尽管部分工厂尝试挺价维稳， 但在供需失衡的大环境下，价格缺乏突破动力。从后期趋势看，原 ...

近期，商务部发布公告，决定对原产于美国、欧盟、韩国、日本和泰国的进口苯酚继续征收反倾销税， 实施期限为5年。这为我国苯酚产业赢得又一阶段的政策保护窗口，有助于缓解外部低价进口产品对国 内市场的冲击。 然而，在外部屏障得以巩固的同时，国内市场的结构性矛盾与竞争压力正日益凸显，"稳内贸"的任务也 愈发艰巨。 自2019年我国对进口苯酚实施反倾销以来，进口依存度已从28.5%下降至2024年的16.8%。此次反倾销 税延续征收5年，将为国内企业争取更多应对调整时间。但行业需认识到，政策保护并不能从根本上解 决行业结构性问题。从中长期来看，酚酮行业将经历深刻的供给侧结构性改革。这一过程可能伴随部分 中小产能退出、行业兼并重组推进，以及企业向高附加值、差异化、精细化产品方向转型。只有通过持 续的产能优化、技术升级与市场出清，苯酚产业才能在反倾销保护期结束后，真正具备与国际厂商同台 竞争的能力，实现从"规模扩张"到"质量竞争"的战略转变。 一是产能持续扩张，竞争压力不断加大。近年来，我国酚酮行业呈现一体化、规模化和多元化发展态 势，产能持续增长。据卓创资讯（301299）统计，截至2024年年底，我国苯酚产能近十年的复合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The phenol ketone industry is expected to recover from losses as the supply-demand balance improves after a peak in production capacity expansion [1][5]. Supply Side Analysis - Since 2007, domestic phenol ketone capacity has consistently increased, with effective capacity rising from 1.039 million tons to 1.126 million tons by July 2025 [2]. - Major expansions occurred in 2012, 2015, and 2023, with a net increase of 7.87 million tons over the past decade [2]. - The trend towards larger and integrated production facilities has been noted, with significant projects like Zhejiang Petrochemical's 650,000-ton facility becoming the largest single-unit capacity in the country [3]. - The period from 2022 to 2023 saw a rapid development phase for phenol ketone facilities, reaching a peak in 2023 [4]. - Capacity growth is expected to slow down in 2024, with only 130,000 tons of new capacity projected [5]. - The supply side is anticipated to improve due to the slowdown in planned capacity expansions and the shutdown of older facilities [6][12]. Demand Side Analysis - The demand for phenol ketone's downstream products, particularly polycarbonate (PC) and bisphenol A, is expected to grow steadily, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.95% for PC from 2019 to 2024 [14]. - Bisphenol A is positioned as a critical link in the phenol ketone supply chain, with a projected CAGR of 28.93% during the same period [14]. - Despite the anticipated growth in demand, the bisphenol A sector faces challenges due to intense competition, which may lead to project delays or cancellations [14]. Industry Outlook - The industry is transitioning into a phase of supply-demand structure optimization following years of rapid capacity expansion [14]. - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to further eliminate outdated capacities and enhance the industry's profit margins [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The phenol ketone industry is expected to recover from losses as supply and demand dynamics improve after a peak in production capacity [1] Supply Dynamics - Since 2007, domestic phenol ketone capacity has consistently increased, growing from 1.039 million tons to 11.26 million tons by July 2025 [2] - Significant expansions occurred in 2012, 2015, and 2023, with a net increase of 7.87 million tons over the past decade [2] - The trend is shifting towards larger and more integrated production facilities, with major projects launched by companies like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Wanhua Chemical [3] - Capacity growth is expected to slow down in 2024, with only 130,000 tons of new capacity projected [3][4] - The supply side is anticipated to improve due to the planned reduction of outdated production lines and the closure of some overseas facilities [4][5] Policy Direction - The industry has faced challenges due to an oversupply situation, leading to a shift from high profitability to losses [4] - The Chinese government has introduced policies to combat "involution" in various industries, including phenol ketone, to stabilize market conditions [4][6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on structural adjustments, eliminating outdated capacity, and promoting new growth points [4] Demand Trends - Demand for phenol ketone remains robust, particularly driven by the steady growth of polycarbonate (PC) and bisphenol A (BPA) [7] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for PC demand is projected at 17.95% from 2019 to 2024, supported by trends in consumer electronics and automotive lightweighting [7] - BPA, a critical link in the phenol ketone supply chain, is expected to see a CAGR of 28.93% during the same period, although competition may lead to project delays [7] - Overall, the industry is entering a phase of supply-demand optimization, with potential for profit recovery driven by policy support and steady demand growth [7]