花旗发布研报称，审视过近期经销商及行业数据后，仍然相信今年中国重型卡车需求可能保持稳定增 长，将潍柴动力（000338）(02338)目标价从21.3港元上调至34港元，评级由"中性"上调至"买入"，相信 去年对于Kion的减值仅会带来一次性影响，未来则会受惠于相关成本削减措施。 考虑到AI数据中心对固体氧化物燃料电池、主动及被动能源供应有着强劲需求，该行相信潍柴动力可 能会采取战略举措，逐步将更多资源从机械领域转为投放至能源供应领域，为集团的长期增长带来一定 支持。该行上调潍柴2025至2027年大型发动机及用于数据中心的发动机销量预测，并将其将净利润预测 上调1%至4%。 ...

Group 1 - The heavy truck market in China experienced a significant slowdown in year-on-year growth in December 2025, with sales around 95,000 units, a decrease of approximately 16% month-on-month, but an increase of about 13% compared to the same month last year [1][3] - The overall heavy truck market achieved nine consecutive months of growth from April to December 2025, with an average growth rate of 41% throughout the year [1][3] - The total sales volume for the heavy truck market in 2025 reached a record high of 1.137 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 26% [4] Group 2 - The slowdown in December's sales growth is attributed to a high sales base from the previous year, which was influenced by the old truck replacement policy in the fourth quarter of 2024 [3] - The heavy truck export market also showed robust growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of nearly 20% in December 2025, and total exports for the year projected at around 330,000 units, marking a historical high [3] - Some mainstream heavy truck manufacturers engaged in "hiding sales" in December, deferring a portion of wholesale sales to the first quarter of 2026 to ensure a strong start to the new year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (02338) is experiencing a positive market response, with a nearly 3% increase in stock price, driven by strong demand in the heavy truck sector and a favorable outlook for its LNG engine market position [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Weichai Power's stock price rose by 1.98% to HKD 20.04, with a trading volume of HKD 2.81 billion [1] - The company is viewed as a top pick in the industrial sector by Morgan Stanley, particularly for its LNG heavy truck engine market leadership [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Heavy truck demand in China remains robust, particularly in November, indicating that demand is concentrated in the second half of the year [1] - The sales of LNG trucks are significantly increasing, which bodes well for Weichai Power's market position [1] Group 3: Competitive Position - Weichai Power maintains a market share of over 60% in the LNG heavy truck engine market, with a core market share exceeding 50% from January to April 2025 [2] - In the high-power gas engine market (above 500 horsepower), Weichai holds a 42% market share, outperforming competitors like Cummins and Yuchai Group [2] - The company supplies 70%-90% of the core power for the top three heavy truck brands in domestic natural gas sales, solidifying its position as a key supplier [2]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338) is viewed as a top pick in the industrial sector for 2026 by Morgan Stanley, highlighting its strong market position and leadership continuity despite management changes [1] Group 1: Management and Leadership - Concerns regarding a potential strategic disconnect between Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951) due to the retirement of founder and former chairman Tan Xuguang in August 2024 have been alleviated with the appointment of former executive Wang Zhijian as chairman of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, the parent company of both [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Performance - Heavy truck demand in China remains robust as of November, indicating a concentrated demand in the second half of the year, with significant growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) truck sales [1] - Weichai Power holds a leading position in the LNG heavy-duty truck engine market, with a long-term market share exceeding 60%, and a core market share of over 50% from January to April 2025 [1] Group 3: Competitive Position - In the high-power gas engine market (over 500 horsepower), Weichai Power commands a 42% market share, significantly outperforming competitors such as Cummins, FAW Jiefang, and Yuchai Group [1] - Weichai Power supplies 70%-90% of the core power for the top three heavy truck brands in the domestic natural gas sales ranking, solidifying its position as a key supplier for leading heavy truck manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley identifies Weichai Power (02338) as one of the top industrial stocks for 2026, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 31 [1] Group 1: Leadership and Strategic Continuity - Concerns regarding potential strategic disconnection between Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808) due to the retirement of founder and former chairman Tan Xuguang in August 2024 have been alleviated [1] - The appointment of former senior executive Wang Zhijian as chairman of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, the parent company of both Weichai and China National Heavy Duty Truck, is expected to enhance strategic continuity [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Potential - Heavy truck demand in China remains robust as of November, indicating that demand has been concentrated in the second half of the year [1] - There is significant growth in sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks, with Weichai Power expected to maintain a leading position in the LNG heavy truck engine market [1] - The company is viewed as having potential for a revaluation based on its market position and growth prospects [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that demand for heavy trucks in China remains very strong in November, confirming that demand has been concentrated in the second half of the year [1] - The report indicates significant growth in sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks, suggesting a positive trend in this segment [1] - The company Weichai is viewed favorably in the LNG heavy truck engine market, with potential for a re-rating of its valuation [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on Weichai, setting a target price of 31 Hong Kong dollars [1] - Weichai is considered one of the top picks in the industrial sector for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has identified Weichai Power (000338)(02338) as one of the top picks in the industrial sector for 2026, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 31 [1] Group 1: Leadership and Strategic Continuity - Concerns regarding potential strategic disconnection between Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951)(03808) due to the retirement of founder and former chairman Tan Xuguang in August 2024 have been alleviated [1] - The appointment of former senior executive Wang Zhijian as chairman of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, the parent company of both Weichai and China National Heavy Duty Truck, is expected to enhance strategic continuity [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Growth Potential - Demand for heavy trucks in China remains very strong as of November, indicating that demand has been concentrated in the second half of the year [1] - There is significant growth in sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks, with Weichai Power expected to maintain a leading position in the LNG heavy truck engine market [1] - The company is seen as having potential for a re-rating in valuation due to its strong market position [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Daiwa indicates that the demand for heavy trucks in China is expected to remain sustainable due to the replacement cycle and potentially extended vehicle replacement subsidy policies, with strong demand also observed in emerging markets [1] Group 1: Market Forecast - The forecast predicts that the demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) heavy trucks will increase, with total heavy truck sales in China expected to grow by 19% year-on-year to 1.07 million units this year [1] - Total sales are projected to rise to 1.12 million units next year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - Daiwa has identified Weichai Power as the preferred stock in the industry, upgrading its target price from HKD 18 to HKD 20.5, citing expectations of benefiting from the recovery of LNG truck demand and growth in high-power engine demand next year [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group has been given an "outperform" rating, with its target price raised from HKD 21.7 to HKD 29.4 [1]

Core Insights - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) achieved the highest global sales volume of heavy-duty trucks in collaboration with global partners since 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the period of January to September, CNHTC reported a total revenue of $22.89 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [1] - The total vehicle sales reached 335,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [1] Export Performance - Heavy-duty truck export sales amounted to 111,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.5% [1] - In September, CNHTC's heavy-duty truck exports exceeded 15,000 units for the first time in a single month, setting a new record for the Chinese heavy-duty truck industry [1] - The company anticipates that the total heavy-duty truck export volume for the year will surpass 150,000 units, further solidifying its leading position in the Chinese heavy-duty truck export sector [1]

Group 1 - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) is being held in Guangzhou from October 15 to November 4, featuring a record number of 408 booths from Jinan's trading group, benefiting 218 foreign trade enterprises [1] - The fair focuses on "advanced manufacturing," "quality life," and "smart technology," covering a total exhibition area of 1.55 million square meters with 74,600 booths and over 32,000 participating companies, all of which are historical highs [1] - More than 1 million new products will be showcased, including 353,000 smart products and nearly 1.1 million products with independent intellectual property rights, along with 800,000 products making their debut at the fair [1] Group 2 - Jinan's exhibiting companies, such as Jinan Kingway Laser, have seen increased interest from foreign buyers, with expectations of significantly higher transaction volumes compared to previous years [1] - The Design Innovation Award (CF Award) was announced, with Jinan's Joyoung Co., Ltd. winning silver awards for its smart automatic wall-breaking robot Y8 and the non-venting electric pressure cooker Y-50H500S [2] - Jinan's foreign trade has shown rapid growth, with a total import and export value of 178.03 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, the highest growth rate among sub-provincial cities [2]