中信证券发布研报称，展望2025Q3，今年重卡会出现"淡季不淡"现象。国四"以旧换新"地方政策在 2025Q2集中到位是其最重要原因：约占"国四"存量67%的省份政策集中于4月中旬到6月初发布。预测 2025Q3/Q4重卡行业销量为27万、24万台，同比增速+51%、+10%。此外，出口依然为行业贡献高盈利 和增量空间。今年上半年重卡出口结构发生了较大变化，出口至东南亚、中东和非洲的销量比例大幅提 升，非俄区域增速超30%。 中长期来看，对于中国重卡的出口前景无需悲观。且根据海关总署数据，2025H1中国重卡出口海关价 格仅小幅下滑，盈利能力无需过多担忧。具体到行业格局而言，虽然新能源化势不可挡，但重卡行业集 中度反而提升至91%，重卡行业格局稳定度超市场预期，有望实现行业内的高质量发展。 中信证券主要观点如下： 地方政策集中在25Q2到位，预计是重卡25Q3"淡季不淡"的重要原因 根据各省交通运输厅文件以及卡车之家的数据，河北、四川、湖北等地约占"国四"重卡存量41%，其政 策在4月中到5月初期间发布政策；而山东、广西、海南等地约占26%，其在5月中到6月初才发布政策。 随着各省份政策的落地，3-6月份重卡 ...

证券代码：000951 证券简称：中国重汽 中国重汽集团济南卡车股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20250604 | 投资者关系活动 | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称 | 华创证券李昊岚 蔡依林 | | 及人员姓名 | 工银瑞信基金 万力实 郭照阳 | | 时 间 | 2025 年 6 月 4 日 13:30-14:30 | | 地 点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司 | 董事会秘书助理兼证券事务代表 张欣 | | 接待人员姓名 | 投关专员 胡啸 | | | 公司董事会秘书助理兼证券事务代表张欣女士简要介绍 | | | 了公司情况，并就投资者关心的问题进行了沟通和交流。主 | | | 要内容如下： | | 投资者关系活动 | 1、请介绍下公司近期的生产经营情况。 | | | 根据第一商用车网数据，2025 年 1-5 月我国重卡市场累 | | 主要内容介绍 | 计销量约为 43.55 万辆，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 results, showing revenue growth and profitability, indicating a positive outlook for the future [2][4]. Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.80, meeting expectations [4]. - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks in China were 265,000 units, down 2.71% year-on-year but up 20.99% quarter-on-quarter, with the company's sales of 74,200 units, down 3.17% year-on-year but up 32.34% quarter-on-quarter, indicating the company's revenue growth outperformed the industry [4]. Profitability Analysis - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.26% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 43.13%, attributed to seasonal effects [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 7.05%, down 0.82 percentage points year-on-year and 4.49 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, due to changes in export business proportion and product structure [4]. - The net profit margin was 3.33%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.12 percentage points despite the decline in gross margin, indicating effective cost control measures [4]. Cost Management - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs in Q1 2025 were 0.72%, 0.60%, 1.54%, and -0.47%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline across the board, reflecting successful cost reduction and efficiency improvement efforts [4]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports in Q1 2025 showed both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, with a total export volume of 74,100 units, up 0.10% year-on-year and 7.51% quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong demand in the overseas market [5][6]. - The group’s export volume was 33,000 units, down 2.98% year-on-year but up 12.33% quarter-on-quarter, outperforming industry growth rates [6]. Policy Impact - The recent expansion of the old-for-new vehicle replacement policy is expected to boost domestic demand, with the inclusion of natural gas heavy trucks in the subsidy program, benefiting the company as a leading player in the heavy truck industry [7]. Investment Outlook - The industry demand is recovering, and the company is expected to benefit from high export demand. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 56.16 billion, 64.02 billion, and 71.71 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.77 billion, 2.03 billion, and 2.34 billion yuan, respectively [8].