来源：伍戈经济笔记 核心观点： 1.不只是时间。即将过去的2025年，对于世界经济和全球市场而言，或是值得回味的一年，宏观基本面 和诸多资产价格之间呈现少有的异步。究其原因，供给面的冲击显著超越需求面的波动。新年能否线性 外推，延续宏大供给叙事之下的需求故事？ 2.关税冲击已递减，但其对美国经济的"滞胀"影响还将持续，加之移民政策的扰动，美联储在失业率和 通胀之间的权衡依然纠结，降息路径难言平坦。这些都使得美元未必像今年前三季度那么显著地单边贬 值，新兴市场的风险偏好或将更趋双向波动。 3.AI科技发展仍是长期宏大叙事，目前各国货币环境及产业政策都对其形成支撑。但与过往三年不同， 美国头部科技企业已面临现金流和投资回报率的权衡，资本开支虽维持扩张但增速趋于波动。此前市场 对科技企业盈利的较高预期开始向现实收敛。 4.展望未来，年初我国经济同比增速面临高基数等掣肘，逆周期政策有望逐步加码。国际经验看，超常 规举措往往与信贷等风险暴露关联，数值上我国暂不显著。鉴于低基数效应，整体物价降幅或收窄，但 市场资产定价更关注以环比为代表的真实动能。 正文： AI科技发展仍是长期宏大叙事，目前各国货币环境及产业政策都对其形 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a significant rise in global markets, including U.S. stocks, with a 93.3% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra expressed optimism about a potential 50 basis points rate cut during the Fed's September meeting, contributing to the bullish sentiment in the markets [1] - The expectation of 2-3 rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to influence other markets, including China, particularly benefiting sectors like technology and cyclical stocks [1] Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a significant rebound, briefly surpassing the 3700-point mark, but ultimately closed lower at 3666 points, indicating a mixed market performance with a notable increase in trading volume [3] - The market showed a clear divergence, with larger market capitalization stocks performing better while smaller, speculative stocks faced declines, highlighting a shift in investor preference [3][5] - The A-share indices collectively retreated after a seven-day rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing 0.46% by the end of the trading day [7] Group 3 - The market is currently experiencing a correction phase, with the potential for a small top formation, suggesting that the overall market may not adjust significantly [6] - Key support levels are identified at 3640 points, with expectations for a brief adjustment period over the next few days, indicating a cautious outlook for the near term [6]