来源：伍戈经济笔记 核心观点： 1.不只是时间。即将过去的2025年，对于世界经济和全球市场而言，或是值得回味的一年，宏观基本面 和诸多资产价格之间呈现少有的异步。究其原因，供给面的冲击显著超越需求面的波动。新年能否线性 外推，延续宏大供给叙事之下的需求故事？ 2.关税冲击已递减，但其对美国经济的"滞胀"影响还将持续，加之移民政策的扰动，美联储在失业率和 通胀之间的权衡依然纠结，降息路径难言平坦。这些都使得美元未必像今年前三季度那么显著地单边贬 值，新兴市场的风险偏好或将更趋双向波动。 3.AI科技发展仍是长期宏大叙事，目前各国货币环境及产业政策都对其形成支撑。但与过往三年不同， 美国头部科技企业已面临现金流和投资回报率的权衡，资本开支虽维持扩张但增速趋于波动。此前市场 对科技企业盈利的较高预期开始向现实收敛。 4.展望未来，年初我国经济同比增速面临高基数等掣肘，逆周期政策有望逐步加码。国际经验看，超常 规举措往往与信贷等风险暴露关联，数值上我国暂不显著。鉴于低基数效应，整体物价降幅或收窄，但 市场资产定价更关注以环比为代表的真实动能。 正文： AI科技发展仍是长期宏大叙事，目前各国货币环境及产业政策都对其形 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has reported a significant increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by product upgrades and strong demand from global brand clients, despite facing challenges from a complex macroeconomic environment [4][5]. Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of surface materials for disposable hygiene products, with a focus on innovative materials [3]. - The main products include 3D perforated non-woven fabric and PE perforated film, primarily used in women's hygiene products and baby diapers [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 843.22 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.71% [4]. - The revenue from the hot air non-woven fabric series increased by 58.37%, while the perforated non-woven fabric series and PE perforated film products saw growths of 15.64% and 6.31%, respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The disposable hygiene products market in China is projected to grow steadily, with the market size for absorbent hygiene products estimated at 132.13 billion yuan, a 13.8% increase from 2023 [3]. - The women's hygiene products market is expected to reach 86.71 billion yuan, growing by 23.27%, while the baby hygiene products market is forecasted to decline slightly by 1.7% [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its global supply chain capabilities and expanding its market presence in North America and Europe [13][14]. - The company aims to strengthen its product offerings by developing high-performance and functional products to meet the needs of key clients [5]. Operational Efficiency - The company is optimizing internal management and production processes to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs [6]. - Despite a 7.14% decline in net profit to approximately 25.84 million yuan, the company is taking strategic measures to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and supply chain uncertainties [6].