钴金属 - 2026 年开门红金属巡礼 20260107 摘要 2026-2027 年全球钴供应预计存在缺口，为钴价提供支撑。刚果金出 口政策延期及配额制度导致出口缓慢，预计 1-3 月原料供应短缺，或推 动钴价上涨。 下游企业为应对"金三银四"生产高峰期，一二月份将增加备货需求， 消费电子领域对高价接受度较高，可能进一步推高钴价。地缘政治风险 也可能导致钴价快速上涨。 刚果金政策变化显著影响钴供应预期。配额制度出台后引发涨价，但审 批流程延迟导致运输推迟，首批货物预计 3-4 月抵达中国。需关注 2025 年四季度配额延期至 2026 年一季度使用的处理方式。 钢铁企业应积极申请去年四季度与今年一季度联动的配额，避免配额作 废。密切关注刚果政府与摩科瑞合作后的分销安排及嘉能可等大型贸易 商的供货意向。 欧洲市场数据显示，中国建谷生产厂商持续向欧美贸易商出售货物，但 多存入保税库，等待行情发酵。终端厂商补货将推动需求增加，进一步 推高价格。 Q&A 前尚未开始发运。尤其是 12 月初售股方要求 48 小时内支付 10%的特许使用 费，以及宣布将 2025 年第四季度出口配额延期至 2026 年第一季度使用，这 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the dramatic increase in cobalt prices, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and rising demand from the AI and renewable energy sectors [1][2][3] - Cobalt prices surged from 159,000 CNY/ton to 272,500 CNY/ton within a year, marking an increase of over 60% [1] - On September 29, the price of 1 cobalt reached 337,000 CNY/ton, representing the largest single-day increase of the year [1] Group 2 - The DRC's government imposed a four-month ban on cobalt exports starting February 22, which was later extended by three months, significantly impacting global supply [2][3] - The DRC accounts for a substantial portion of global cobalt production, and its export ban led to a drastic reduction in imports of cobalt intermediates in China, dropping from 19,000 tons in June to just 5,200 tons in August [2] - If the DRC's ban lasts for seven months, global cobalt supply could decrease from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons, a reduction of 34% [3] Group 3 - Cobalt is essential in various industries, particularly in batteries, where 66% of global cobalt is utilized, and in China, this figure rises to 87% [4] - In the battery sector, cobalt enhances the lifespan and stability of lithium-ion batteries, making it crucial for high-end electric vehicles [4] - Cobalt also plays a vital role in high-temperature alloys for aerospace, surgical tools, and chemical catalysts, indicating its broad industrial significance [4][5] Group 4 - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that cobalt prices may continue to rise, with a projected increase in demand of 5.06% in 2025, reaching 210,900 tons [7] - The DRC's export quotas are expected to remain tight, with only 18,000 tons available, leading to a potential supply shortage in the market [7][8] - Emerging industries such as drones, robotics, and AI chip production are expected to further drive long-term demand for cobalt, reinforcing its market position [8] Group 5 - Companies with cobalt mining operations, like Luoyang Molybdenum, have reported significant profit increases, with net profits rising by 60% in the first half of the year [1][8] - The cobalt market has shifted from being undervalued to highly sought after, with companies that stockpiled raw materials benefiting from high profit margins [8] - Investors need to closely monitor DRC policies, downstream demand, and individual company metrics to effectively capitalize on opportunities in the cobalt market [8]