2025年金属圈最火的段子，非"年初囤了钴，年底换路虎"莫属。这话放在年初，大概率会被当成玩笑 ——那会儿钴价还趴在15.9万元/吨的历史低点，谁能想到，短短一年时间，它能一路飙到27.25万元/ 吨，涨幅超60%？更疯狂的是9月29日那天，长江现货1#钴均价单日暴涨2.9万元，直接冲到33.7万元/ 吨，创下今年最大单日涨幅，把同期震荡的A股远远甩在身后。 很多人觉得钴涨价只是"炒稀缺"，但其实它的用处远比想象中重要——没有钴，不光新能源车跑不动， 连AI芯片、火箭都得"歇菜"。 先说最贴近我们的电池领域。全球66%的钴都用在电池里，中国更夸张，87%的钴全扎进了电池行业。 其中43%去了新能源汽车电池，30%进了手机、电脑这些消费电子。换句话说，每两辆新能源车、三部 智能手机里，就有钴的身影。而且钴在电池里不是可有可无的：三元锂电池加了钴，循环寿命能提升 30%，稳定性也更靠谱，这就是为什么高端电动车都爱用含钴电池的原因。光2024年中国卖的700万辆 新能源车，就消耗了210吨钴，相当于30头成年大象的重量。 再看高端制造，钴就是"隐形冠军"。航空航天的高温合金里，得加8%的钴才能扛住几千度的高温；医 ...

钴作为金属材料有哪些主要用途？ 钴被称为"工业味精"，其主要用途包括消费电子电池（如电脑、手机中的钴 酸锂电池）、高温合金、化工领域以及磁性材料等。此外，在一些装饰品如花 瓶上的蓝色花纹中也会添加少量钴。自 2018 年新能源汽车兴起后，动力电池 需求大幅增加，推动了钴价上涨。 钴价格在过去几年经历了哪些变化？ 2018 年新能源汽车爆发后，动力电池需求增加，使得当时钴价达到高峰，每 吨最高达到 80 万元。然而随后价格暴跌，到 2019 年 8 月最低降至 22 万元左 右。此后由于 5G 手机和大容量电池普及，以及动力电池市场复苏，需求有所 回升，使得价格有所反弹。在 2022 年的俄乌冲突期间，钴价曾涨至 50 多万 元，但之后因三元市场被磷酸铁锂挤压、高镍低钴趋势等因素影响，再次下跌。 华友钴业 20250905 摘要 华友钴业 2025 年业绩预计接近 60 亿元，对应估值约 14 倍，2026 年 业绩预期 70-80 亿元，对应估值约 10 倍，仍具投资价值。 刚果金钴禁运政策显著影响全球钴供应链，导致国内电钴价格从 16 万 元迅速反弹至 23-25 万元区间，并在 6 月延长禁令后再次拉升至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cobalt industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Viewpoints - The cobalt market is expected to enter an upward price cycle from 2025 to 2027, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and increasing demand from the lithium battery sector [11][12]. - The DRC government has implemented temporary export bans and may introduce export quotas, which could significantly reduce cobalt supply and lead to a supply-demand imbalance [11][30]. - The report forecasts that cobalt prices could stabilize at over 350,000 RMB per ton during the 2026-2027 period due to these supply constraints and robust demand growth [5][12]. Supply Summary - The DRC, which accounts for over 75% of global cobalt supply, has announced a temporary export ban that is expected to reduce its cobalt output by approximately 34% in 2025, resulting in a global supply decrease of 22.3% [2][33]. - If the DRC implements export quotas, global cobalt supply is projected to be 266,000 tons and 289,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.1% and 8.7% [33][34]. - The DRC's supply reduction policies are anticipated to lead to a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance, with a projected shortage of 0.7 million tons in 2025 [4][60]. Demand Summary - Global cobalt demand is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 248,000 tons, 283,000 tons, and 329,000 tons for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 14.0%, and 16.3% [55][56]. - The demand for cobalt is primarily driven by the lithium battery sector, particularly the ternary lithium batteries, which are expected to see a recovery in penetration rates in the domestic market [3][38]. - The consumer electronics sector is also anticipated to recover, contributing to stable demand for cobalt [47]. Balance Summary - The report indicates that the supply-demand relationship for cobalt is expected to improve significantly, with a shift from an oversupply of 83,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 7,000 tons in 2025 [4][60]. - Long-term projections suggest that the cobalt market will remain in a tight balance, with shortages of 17,000 tons and 41,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][60]. Price Outlook - Short-term cobalt prices are expected to remain strong, with a likelihood of maintaining high levels until the end of 2025 due to ongoing supply constraints [5][65]. - The long-term price center for cobalt is projected to exceed 350,000 RMB per ton, driven by supply-side policies and sustained demand growth from the battery sector [5][12].

牵一发而动全身。 起点锂电获悉，近日由于全球钴矿重要生产国刚果（金）改变政策，该国钴矿暂停出口，引发 电池行业地震。 受此影响，多家国内公司也发布公告进行响应，例如网传新余赣锋电子发出一封客户告知函提 及"因为钴价大涨，所有正极材料供应商停止报价，短期内无法下单采购，即日起所有新订单 均需重新确认价格。"目前赣锋锂业暂未回复此事。 同样，在宣布禁止出口政策第二天，国内钴矿相关上市公司寒锐/腾远/利源/永茂泰/华友纷纷股 价上涨。钴价格也迎来逆袭， 截至3月10日，国内钴(1#)平均价达到22.3万元/吨，较2月24日 低点累计上涨40.25%。昔日的"钴奶奶"大势重聚。 01 暂停出口原因： 利润过低 相关人士表示，刚果（金）已不是第一次做出此类行为，暂停进口均是在价格底部的时候出禁 令。 随着消费电子以及新能源汽车的流行，对于电池的需求增多导致钴矿开采规模扩大，让刚果 （金）获得了不少利润，但供需关系反转之时，刚果（金）为保持利润均衡，做出过数次暂停 出口行为。 2002年刚果（金）政府为允许私营资本进入矿产资源领域，中国民营企业进入刚果（金）矿业 市场，以华友钴业、寒锐钴业为代表，为中国钴产业应用奠定基础 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Cobalt and Nonferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The nonferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, particularly during market adjustments, ranking first among 31 industries in January 2025 and again in the following week, indicating a preference for nonferrous metals due to solid fundamentals and the arrival of peak downstream demand [2][3] - The traditional demand peak for industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and steel occurs during the "golden March and silver April" period, which is expected to drive demand [2] Key Insights and Arguments - **Aluminum Sector**: - Yun Aluminum Co. is highlighted as a "gold stock" with a nearly 40% increase since the beginning of 2025. The drop in alumina prices has reduced costs, while primary aluminum prices still have room for a 20%-30% increase. Electrolytic aluminum companies maintain high profitability at around 3,500 yuan per ton, with imported ore prices decreasing to 95 USD per ton [2][4] - **Steel Sector**: - The steel sector has performed well, ranking seventh among 31 industries. Current inventory levels are the lowest since 2020, and a reduction in crude steel production by 50 million tons is expected. The "golden March and silver April" period is anticipated to support iron and steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for companies like Hualin Steel, New Steel, and Nanshan Steel [5] - **Congo (DRC) Export Ban**: - The DRC's export ban, effective February 24, 2025, has led to significant price increases for related mineral products, with prices rebounding from 149,500 yuan to 180,000 yuan. This ban is expected to create supply shortages, reducing supply by over 70,000 tons and alleviating previous oversupply issues [6][7] Potential Risks and Opportunities - **Cobalt Price Increase**: - Rising cobalt prices benefit smelting companies and those with mineral resources, allowing for increased processing fees and profits. The cost increase for lithium cobalt batteries in the consumer electronics sector is limited, with downstream acceptance remaining high [8][9] - **Company Performance Expectations**: - Huayou Cobalt is expected to perform well with an annual production of 40,000 tons, benefiting from price increases and a projected value increase of 1 billion yuan from its own inventory. The nickel project is also expected to enhance performance elasticity [10] - Nomu Company, with an annual output of 110,000 tons, stands to gain significantly if cobalt prices remain high, although there are concerns about potential price suppression from oversupply [11] - Tengyuan and Hanrui companies are also expected to see profit increases due to their existing inventories benefiting from price rises [12] Future Outlook - The cobalt industry is anticipated to stabilize with government measures potentially supporting prices between 200,000 to 250,000 yuan in the coming years. This presents a favorable evaluation opportunity for the industry, with many companies, including Huayou Cobalt, still undervalued [13]