除供需基本面良好外，全球供应链安全致使主要铜消费国纷纷宣布增加铜储备。尤其是美国对铜发起"232调查"，2025年在COMEX铜的高溢价下虹吸全球铜 资源流入美国本土，提升铜资源风险溢价。2025年以来，美国通过对外加征进口关税、签订贸易协定等方式推动制造业回流本土，使得地缘政治冲突事件接 连爆发，严重影响有色金属等商品资源供应的稳定性。2026年1月，美军对委内瑞拉发动突袭、伊朗宣布进入最高战备状态以及特朗普要求与欧洲达成格陵 兰岛的相关安排等多项地缘政治冲突接连爆发，标志着关键矿产等商品的供应链安全已与地缘政治挂钩，全球资源品的定价中已隐含地缘政治动荡因素。在 此背景下，中国、美国和欧盟等消费国纷纷增加关键矿产资源的战略性储备，以减少对外依赖。在供应冲击和战略需求储备的双重作用下，铜等金属价格易 涨难跌。 春节假期期间，国际铜价先抑后扬，整体震荡运行。其中，LME铜价主要运行区间在12500～13100美元/吨。短期来看，铜价震荡调整主要受国内春节假期 需求疲软、LME库存持续累积以及CL溢价（COMEX铜较LME铜溢价）未再走扩等多重因素影响。中长期来看，铜基本面变化有限，供应端结构性问题仍 存，AI预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the production launch of the Mirador Copper Mine Phase II project is primarily due to the unsigned mining contract, which is affected by political instability in Ecuador [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Mirador Copper Mine Phase II project was planned in 2022, with an original completion target of June 2025 and production expected to start in early 2026 [2]. - The project has progressed efficiently, with the main construction starting in August 2023 and expected to be completed by May 2025, taking 22 months, which is considered high efficiency for similar overseas projects [2]. Group 2: Contract Signing Issues - The signing of the mining contract has been delayed due to political changes in Ecuador, including early elections and changes in government leadership, which have disrupted the continuity and efficiency of administrative processes [3]. - The main operating entity, ECSA, received the environmental certificate for the project in August 2022 and was in the process of finalizing the contract with the Ecuadorian government [3]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The Mirador Copper Mine Phase II is crucial for the company to extend upstream and hedge against market risks, especially as copper processing fees have been declining, putting pressure on profitability [4][5]. - The first phase of the Mirador Copper Mine has already become a stable profit pillar for the company, with a designed annual processing capacity of 20 million tons and an annual copper output of approximately 96,000 tons [6]. Group 4: Financial Impact - The first phase of the project has contributed significantly to the company's profits, with net profits of 1.487 billion yuan in 2024 and 1.430 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [7]. - The uncertainty regarding the start of Phase II will impact the company's operating performance in 2026 [8].