报告导读： 变化的沃什的政策倾向，不变的美联储独立性困境。美债建议防御优先、久期 中性、控制波动。 1. 聚焦美联储换届：货币政策与美债市场前瞻 1.1 美联 储换届 前后的历史规律回顾：货币政策和债市行情变化 从历史经验来看，美联储主席换届对债券市场的影响主要体现在收益率波动加剧、曲线形态调整以及风险溢价重估三个维度。 换届前后6- 12个月通常是政策不确定性最高的时期，市场对新任主席的政策立场、沟通风格和独立性存在疑虑，这种不确定性直接转化为债券市场波 动率上升和流动性溢价扩大。 从收益率走势来看，换届期间债市表现呈现明显的"情景依赖"特征。 2006年格林斯潘-伯南克交接时，10年期美债收益率在交接前后三个 月内波动区间仅30个基点，政策延续性强；2014年伯南克-耶伦交接正值QE退出初期，10年期收益率从交接前的2.7%升至年底3.0%，反 映市场对政策正常化路径的重新定价。2018年耶伦-鲍威尔交接时经济强劲、通胀回升，10年期收益率从2.4%快速攀升至3.2%，曲线平 坦化趋势加速，市场担忧新主席延续渐进加息导致曲线倒挂。 曲线形态方面，换届往往触发期限利差的结构性调整。 历史数据显示，若新任主席 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Nasdaq reaching a record closing high, driven by signals of a tight labor market and controlled inflation, suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 273.78 points (0.59%) to 45834.22, while the Nasdaq rose by 98.03 points (0.44%) to 22141.10, and the S&P 500 decreased by 3.18 points (0.05%) to 6584.29 [1] - All three major indices recorded weekly gains, with the Dow up 0.95%, Nasdaq up 2.03%, and S&P 500 up 1.59%, marking the best weekly performance for the S&P 500 since early August [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, but the year-over-year increase of 2.9% met expectations [1][2] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly surged to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, significantly above the expected 235,000 [2][3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent labor market data strengthens the case for a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a rate cut of 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting [2][3] - Market pricing indicates a 93% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with a 7% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut [5] - Some economists predict that the Federal Reserve may implement a total of 125 basis points in cuts over the next five meetings, with expectations of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts [5][6] Company-Specific News - Adobe reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings and raised its full-year revenue guidance [7] - Goldman Sachs downgraded Novartis to a "sell" rating [8] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) began bulk deliveries of NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra systems [9] - Microsoft signed a non-binding agreement with OpenAI to reshape their partnership [10] - Xpeng Motors unveiled its first range-extended SUV [11]