Group 1 - The commodity market has cooled down significantly after a surge, with various products experiencing substantial corrections, indicating a shift from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1][4] - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit margin for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton, as rebar prices fell from 3400 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton [1][2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to insufficient destocking, with prices dropping from a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton within two weeks [4][5] Group 2 - The black series futures have seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with rebar prices dropping over 300 yuan/ton from their July 30 high of 3439 yuan/ton [2][3] - The average cost of steel billets in Tangshan increased by 8 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the current ex-factory price is 2950 yuan/ton, leading to a loss for steel mills [2][3] - The lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of over 85,000 tons, marking a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by spodumene [4][5] Group 3 - The market sentiment has deteriorated, with expectations for destocking during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to short-term price corrections [5] - The overall supply capacity in the lithium industry has improved, although some flexible production lines have shifted to lithium carbonate production, contributing to increased output [4][5] - Future market dynamics may find a balance between policy expectations and fundamental constraints, with potential short-term recovery in market sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market has recently cooled down after a surge, with various products experiencing significant corrections as the market shifts from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1] Group 1: Black Metal Futures - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton [2][4] - Rebar prices fell from 3,400 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, while coke prices dropped from around 1,850 yuan/ton to approximately 1,560 yuan/ton [4] - The steel market remains weak, with Tangshan's steel billet price decreasing by 60 yuan to 2,950 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient terminal demand [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The black metal market has seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with the cost of steel production rising while prices fall [4] - Despite the weak demand for rebar, there are expectations of marginal improvement in demand during September, although overall steel inventory is increasing [5] - The coking coal market is also experiencing inventory accumulation, with a significant drop in auction prices and a high flow rate of unsold products [5] Group 3: Lithium Market Trends - The lithium carbonate futures market has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping from 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton in just two weeks [7] - The production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of over 85,000 tons in August, driven by increased output from spodumene sources [8] - Market sentiment remains poor, with expectations for inventory reduction during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to continued price corrections [8]

Core Insights - The black commodities market is experiencing a divergence, with iron ore prices declining while coking coal and coke prices are rising, indicating varied trading dynamics in the market [1] Group 1 - Iron ore prices are on a downward trend, reflecting a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the market [1] - Coking coal and coke prices are increasing, suggesting strong demand or supply constraints in these segments [1] - The contrasting movements in these commodities highlight the complexities and shifting dynamics within the black commodities sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The black metal sector has experienced a significant rebound in multiple varieties since June 3, with various contracts showing substantial percentage increases in their prices [1] Price Rebounds Summary - Silicon iron 2509 contract rebounded from a low of 5014 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 6166 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 22.97% [1] - Manganese silicon 2509 contract increased from a low of 5312 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 6414 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 20.74% [1] - Coking coal 2509 contract rose from a low of 709 CNY/ton on June 4 to a high of 1259 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 77.56% [1] - Glass 2509 contract increased from a low of 952 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 1370 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 43.91% [1] - Coking 2509 contract rose from a low of 1280.5 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 1774.5 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 38.58% [1] - Rebar 2510 contract increased from a low of 2912 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 3346 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 14.89% [1] - Hot rolled coil 2509 contract rose from a low of 3026 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 3496 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 15.53% [1]