1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Awaiting steel mill复产, the ore price rebounds from a low level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke: The first round of price cuts has started, with wide - range fluctuations; coking coal: Wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Steam coal: Lack of upward support, short - term price with narrow - range fluctuations [2][20]. - Logs: A game between expectations and reality, with small - scale fluctuations [2][23]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of I2605 was 752.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (- 0.20%); the open interest decreased by 7,288 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most varieties declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on the afternoon of March 4; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26 [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,071 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,212 yuan/ton, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the prices in some regions decreased slightly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee discussed the draft outline of the 14th Five - Year Plan and the government work report on February 27; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26; steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data showed changes in late February [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of silicon - iron contracts increased, and the trading volume and open interest were at certain levels. Spot prices of some varieties increased. There were changes in various price spreads [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon - iron and silicomanganese in some regions increased; the manganese ore quotes for April 2026 from multiple mines increased; the silicon - iron electricity prices in some regions changed; the manganese ore freight rates increased; South Africa's manganese ore export volume in January 2026 increased [12][13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 increased, and the open interest decreased. Most spot prices remained stable, with a small decline in some varieties. There were changes in various price spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased on March 4; the coking coal online auction on March 4 had a 28% non - successful bid rate, with prices rising and falling [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [18]. Steam Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and at different calorific values showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year. The long - term agreement prices in February decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 4, the sentiment in the northern port market was average, with low trading volume. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. Indonesia set its 2026 domestic coal supply target and preliminary production target [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity based on the northern port steam coal spot price is 0 [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts showed different changes. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with small increases in some [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on March 4; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [26].

Group 1 - The commodity market has cooled down significantly after a surge, with various products experiencing substantial corrections, indicating a shift from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1][4] - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit margin for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton, as rebar prices fell from 3400 yuan/ton to 3100 yuan/ton [1][2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to insufficient destocking, with prices dropping from a peak of 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton within two weeks [4][5] Group 2 - The black series futures have seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with rebar prices dropping over 300 yuan/ton from their July 30 high of 3439 yuan/ton [2][3] - The average cost of steel billets in Tangshan increased by 8 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the current ex-factory price is 2950 yuan/ton, leading to a loss for steel mills [2][3] - The lithium carbonate production in August reached a record high of over 85,000 tons, marking a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by spodumene [4][5] Group 3 - The market sentiment has deteriorated, with expectations for destocking during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to short-term price corrections [5] - The overall supply capacity in the lithium industry has improved, although some flexible production lines have shifted to lithium carbonate production, contributing to increased output [4][5] - Future market dynamics may find a balance between policy expectations and fundamental constraints, with potential short-term recovery in market sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market has recently cooled down after a surge, with various products experiencing significant corrections as the market shifts from emotional speculation back to fundamentals [1] Group 1: Black Metal Futures - On September 3, Tangshan's average profit for steel mills turned negative for the first time in six months, with an average loss of 21 yuan/ton [2][4] - Rebar prices fell from 3,400 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, while coke prices dropped from around 1,850 yuan/ton to approximately 1,560 yuan/ton [4] - The steel market remains weak, with Tangshan's steel billet price decreasing by 60 yuan to 2,950 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient terminal demand [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The black metal market has seen a rapid price decline due to increasing supply and weak demand, with the cost of steel production rising while prices fall [4] - Despite the weak demand for rebar, there are expectations of marginal improvement in demand during September, although overall steel inventory is increasing [5] - The coking coal market is also experiencing inventory accumulation, with a significant drop in auction prices and a high flow rate of unsold products [5] Group 3: Lithium Market Trends - The lithium carbonate futures market has seen a significant decline, with prices dropping from 90,000 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton in just two weeks [7] - The production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of over 85,000 tons in August, driven by increased output from spodumene sources [8] - Market sentiment remains poor, with expectations for inventory reduction during the "golden September and silver October" period not meeting prior expectations, leading to continued price corrections [8]

Core Insights - The black commodities market is experiencing a divergence, with iron ore prices declining while coking coal and coke prices are rising, indicating varied trading dynamics in the market [1] Group 1 - Iron ore prices are on a downward trend, reflecting a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the market [1] - Coking coal and coke prices are increasing, suggesting strong demand or supply constraints in these segments [1] - The contrasting movements in these commodities highlight the complexities and shifting dynamics within the black commodities sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The black metal sector has experienced a significant rebound in multiple varieties since June 3, with various contracts showing substantial percentage increases in their prices [1] Price Rebounds Summary - Silicon iron 2509 contract rebounded from a low of 5014 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 6166 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 22.97% [1] - Manganese silicon 2509 contract increased from a low of 5312 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 6414 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 20.74% [1] - Coking coal 2509 contract rose from a low of 709 CNY/ton on June 4 to a high of 1259 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 77.56% [1] - Glass 2509 contract increased from a low of 952 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 1370 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 43.91% [1] - Coking 2509 contract rose from a low of 1280.5 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 1774.5 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 38.58% [1] - Rebar 2510 contract increased from a low of 2912 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 3346 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 14.89% [1] - Hot rolled coil 2509 contract rose from a low of 3026 CNY/ton on June 3 to a high of 3496 CNY/ton, a cumulative rebound of 15.53% [1]