Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market has different reactions to various asset classes due to this rate cut and other factors such as supply - demand fundamentals and policy expectations [1][12][16]. - The prices of most commodities and financial products are in an oscillatory state, and the future trends are affected by multiple factors including macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations [3][4][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the gold price fell from its high. The short - term upside momentum of gold is lacking, and there is a risk of callback [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's September rate cut of 25bp was in line with expectations, and the dollar index oscillated. It is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [14][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's rate cut of 25bp supported market risk appetite. It is recommended to take a bullish approach, but be aware of market fluctuations caused by economic data changes [18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to be cautious and not chase the market [19][20]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International coal prices followed the upward trend. The coal price is expected to continue oscillating in the short term, with limited space for movement [21][22]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price continued to oscillate. The fundamentals are supportive, but the upside is restricted by finished products. Be vigilant about the demand decline after October [23]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Ukraine imposed a 10% export tariff on soybeans. The soybean meal price was affected by Sino - US negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the short - term price may be weak [24][25]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production decreased in September, but the price increase was limited. The soybean oil price was affected by Sino - US relations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to positive spreads for some varieties [26][27]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price was stable. The consumption was weak during the pre - holiday season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [28][29]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price continued to oscillate. The demand was weak, but the cost support and anti - involution policy expectations provided support. It is recommended to use an oscillatory trading strategy [30][33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction prices in Lvliang fluctuated. The supply increased, and the price is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [35][36]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The pig production capacity control meeting was held. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the reverse spread [37][38]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Fed's rate cut had a neutral impact on copper. The macro factors' support for copper weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [40][41][42]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon price may rise slightly. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the anti - spread opportunity [44][45][46]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Sichuan silicon plants plan to cut production. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to interval trading opportunities [47]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The demand for lead improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term and consider buying on dips for the medium term [48][49]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price had a large uncertainty in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity, and maintain the positive spread idea for internal and external trading [50][51][52]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium carbonate price may decline after the demand peak. It is recommended to take a bearish approach, be cautious in the short term, and pay attention to the anti - spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price is expected to oscillate in the short term [57][59]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The crude oil price oscillated and declined. Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the price in the short term [60][61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price oscillated. It is recommended to try positive spreads between November and January [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA price oscillated in the short term [65][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene port inventory pressure eased marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and pay attention to the post - peak season inventory problem and oil price fluctuations [68][69]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price may decline, but the downward space is limited [70][72]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market oscillated weakly [73][74]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price had a limited rebound. The fundamentals are weak, and the future may continue to be weak [75]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip demand is entering the off - season. The price is under pressure, and further production cuts may not improve the processing fee [76][77]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price oscillated. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [78][79]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread trading opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [80][81]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container freight rate may continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [83].

Core Insights - The National Taxation Administration of China is monitoring national enterprise sales revenue using value-added tax invoice data, reflecting the macroeconomic situation [1] Group 1: Sales Revenue Growth - In April, the sales revenue growth rate of national enterprises accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, continuing the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year [2] - Domestic sales revenue of enterprises engaged in exports to the U.S. increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with the proportion of domestic sales in total sales rising by 2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among 31 manufacturing categories, 21 industries saw an increase in the proportion of domestic sales for enterprises exporting to the U.S. compared to the same period last year, with notable increases in the leather and footwear industry (10 percentage points) and in computer communication equipment, black metals, furniture, and food industries (over 5 percentage points) [4] - The sales revenue of industrial enterprises showed significant growth in April, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.7%, and manufacturing sales revenue increased by 4.4%, driven by policies such as "two new" [4] Group 3: Regional Performance - Economic provinces like Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing experienced strong growth in sales revenue in April, with year-on-year increases of 7.3%, 6.6%, and 5.4% respectively, significantly outpacing the national average [4] - The growth in these regions is particularly driven by innovative industries such as artificial intelligence, leading to accelerated development in equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries [4]