Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year. The market has different reactions to various asset classes due to this rate cut and other factors such as supply - demand fundamentals and policy expectations [1][12][16]. - The prices of most commodities and financial products are in an oscillatory state, and the future trends are affected by multiple factors including macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations [3][4][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the gold price fell from its high. The short - term upside momentum of gold is lacking, and there is a risk of callback [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's September rate cut of 25bp was in line with expectations, and the dollar index oscillated. It is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [14][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's rate cut of 25bp supported market risk appetite. It is recommended to take a bullish approach, but be aware of market fluctuations caused by economic data changes [18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to be cautious and not chase the market [19][20]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International coal prices followed the upward trend. The coal price is expected to continue oscillating in the short term, with limited space for movement [21][22]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price continued to oscillate. The fundamentals are supportive, but the upside is restricted by finished products. Be vigilant about the demand decline after October [23]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Ukraine imposed a 10% export tariff on soybeans. The soybean meal price was affected by Sino - US negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the short - term price may be weak [24][25]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production decreased in September, but the price increase was limited. The soybean oil price was affected by Sino - US relations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to positive spreads for some varieties [26][27]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price was stable. The consumption was weak during the pre - holiday season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [28][29]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price continued to oscillate. The demand was weak, but the cost support and anti - involution policy expectations provided support. It is recommended to use an oscillatory trading strategy [30][33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction prices in Lvliang fluctuated. The supply increased, and the price is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [35][36]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The pig production capacity control meeting was held. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the reverse spread [37][38]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Fed's rate cut had a neutral impact on copper. The macro factors' support for copper weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [40][41][42]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon price may rise slightly. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the anti - spread opportunity [44][45][46]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Sichuan silicon plants plan to cut production. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to interval trading opportunities [47]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The demand for lead improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term and consider buying on dips for the medium term [48][49]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price had a large uncertainty in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity, and maintain the positive spread idea for internal and external trading [50][51][52]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium carbonate price may decline after the demand peak. It is recommended to take a bearish approach, be cautious in the short term, and pay attention to the anti - spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price is expected to oscillate in the short term [57][59]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The crude oil price oscillated and declined. Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the price in the short term [60][61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price oscillated. It is recommended to try positive spreads between November and January [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA price oscillated in the short term [65][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene port inventory pressure eased marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and pay attention to the post - peak season inventory problem and oil price fluctuations [68][69]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price may decline, but the downward space is limited [70][72]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market oscillated weakly [73][74]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price had a limited rebound. The fundamentals are weak, and the future may continue to be weak [75]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip demand is entering the off - season. The price is under pressure, and further production cuts may not improve the processing fee [76][77]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price oscillated. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [78][79]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread trading opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [80][81]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container freight rate may continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price is volatile, and attention should be paid to correction risks [14] - US Dollar Index: Short - term volatility [18] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term weak and volatile [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [24] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [28] - Thermal Coal: Price may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] - Iron Ore: Short - term weak and volatile [31] - Edible Oils: Expected to be volatile under the influence of US biofuel policies [35] - Coking Coal/Coke: Weak in the medium - and long - term [36] - Sugar: Second consecutive year of production increase brings little pressure to the market [41] - Corn Starch: CS07 - C07 may remain in low - level oscillation [43] - Cotton: Cautiously optimistic about the future, but short - term may be volatile due to insufficient demand [47] - Corn: Spot and futures prices are expected to rise [48] - Live Pigs: Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [50] - Soybean Meal: Futures prices are temporarily volatile [54] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: Short - term single - side light - position waiting and see, spot hedging on rebounds [59] - Alumina: Suggest waiting and seeing [62] - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term bearish, but short - term decline space is limited [64] - Polysilicon: Uncertain, pay attention to supply - side changes [68] - Industrial Silicon: Spot price may bottom out, but short - side risks exist for futures [70] - Nickel: Short - term range - bound operation, consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term [73] - Lead: Short - term waiting and seeing, start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [75] - Zinc: Short - term shorting on rebounds, consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [77] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term volatility [79] - Crude Oil: Weak short - term rebound drivers [83] - Bottle Chips: Processing fees are expected to remain low, pay attention to supply - side changes [85] - Soda Ash: Short - term support from maintenance, medium - term shorting on rebounds [86] - Float Glass: Prices will remain low, pay attention to real - estate policy changes [88] Core Views - Tariff issues between the US and the EU have a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has triggered market risk - aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar, and stock index futures. The postponement of tariffs has also changed market sentiment and expectations [12][13][17] - The supply and demand situation in the commodity market is complex. In the coal market, over - supply persists, and prices are under pressure. In the agricultural product market, factors such as production, inventory, and consumption seasons affect prices. In the metal market, factors like production capacity, inventory, and policy adjustments play important roles [29][39][64] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU and 25% tariffs on Apple, which triggered market risk - aversion and pushed up gold prices. Then he postponed the EU tariff deadline to July 9. Short - term gold prices are volatile, and the next wave of increase needs a catalyst [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump postponed the EU tariff deadline, indicating that the US and the EU have entered a negotiation window. The short - term market risk preference has increased, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US - EU tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the risk of tariff hikes still exists. The market sentiment has weakened, and US stocks are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 1425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market lacks a clear trading theme, and the bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Bank deposit and large - scale certificate of deposit interest rates have been lowered. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has put pressure on global risk assets, and domestic stock index futures suggest balanced allocation [25][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - South Korea's coal imports in April decreased by 20.16% year - on - year. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high - cost imported coal has been squeezed out. Coal prices may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in May, but it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices are in an oscillating market, and are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [31] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased in May, and export data varied. The US biofuel policy affects soybean oil prices. The edible oil market is expected to be volatile [34][35] 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is weakly stable. Coking coal prices are falling, and the supply - demand structure is difficult to change without significant supply - side cuts. Coal and coke are expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 24/25 sugar - making season in the country has ended. Yunnan's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. Although the national sugar production has increased, the pressure on the market is not large due to the fast sales progress [39] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start - up rate of starch sugar has increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of starch is expected to improve. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in low - level oscillation [42][43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - EU clothing imports increased in March, mainly due to price increases. China's cotton exports increased in April. US cotton new - crop signing is sluggish. Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile in the short - term, and the future is cautiously optimistic [44][45][47] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn warehouse receipts reached a high, and the basis turned positive. The new wheat crop may have a reduced yield. Corn supply and demand gap has not been filled, and prices are expected to rise [48] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market supply of live pigs will continue to be excessive in the future. It is recommended to short on rebounds [50] 2.10 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The drought area in the US soybean - producing area has decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal will gradually increase. Futures prices are temporarily volatile [51][53] 2.11 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The use of special bonds to acquire land has accelerated. Steel production and inventory data show that steel prices are under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be oscillating [55][59] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Alumina) - National alumina inventory decreased. Prices increased slightly. Alumina production capacity is expected to gradually recover [60][61] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The EU has postponed two matters of the battery bill, giving Chinese lithium - battery enterprises a buffer. The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but the short - term decline space is limited [63][64] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic enterprise plans to invest in Indonesia. Polysilicon prices are slightly falling. The supply - demand situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [65][66] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon technical transformation project has started. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is not improving. Spot prices lack the impetus to rebound [69] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased. The supply - demand situation of nickel is complex, with limited upward and downward space. Short - term range - bound operation and medium - term shorting on rebounds are recommended [71][73] 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply - demand situation of lead is weak in the short - term, but medium - term long opportunities are emerging [74] 2.18 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. Zinc mine processing fees are increasing, and supply is expected to be loose. Short - term shorting on rebounds and medium - term long - short spreads are recommended [76][77] 2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are oscillating. Future temperature and wind power generation in Europe will affect carbon prices [78] 2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran - US nuclear negotiations are progressing. US oil drilling rigs have decreased. Short - term crude oil price rebound drivers are weak [80][81] 2.21 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, with partial slight decreases. Supply pressure is increasing, and processing fees are expected to remain low [84][85] 2.22 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are falling. Supply is slightly adjusted, and demand is average. Short - term maintenance may support prices, and medium - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [86] 2.23 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are falling. The spot market is stable in some areas and weak in others. Glass prices are expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]