Global Commodities Research 12 November 2025 2026/27 Agricultural Commodities Fundamentals Update: Volatility to return off compressed levels in 2026 as global agri availability continues to slide November 2025 Tracey Allen (44-20) 7134 6732 tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. Agenda | Agricultural Commodities Fundamentals Update | Page No. | | --- | --- | | Agri commodity inventory, STU and price ...

Company Performance - OneConstruction Group Limited (NASDAQ:ONEG) experienced a stock price decline of 57.16%, dropping to $4.39 from a year-high of $13.5, with a revenue decrease of 16.2% to $53.2 million from $63.5 million [2][8] - Nuvve Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:NVVE) saw a 43.46% drop in stock price to $0.26, prompting the company to initiate a strategic financing initiative to strengthen its equity position [3][8] - TSS, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSSI) faced a 43.08% decline in stock price to $8.68, despite enhancing its AI and high-performance computing strategy by appointing a new board member with extensive experience [4][8] - Republic Power Group Limited (NASDAQ:RPGL) witnessed a 42.96% decline in stock price to $0.84, raising investor concerns about its market position, although it successfully closed an initial public offering of 2,120,000 Class A ordinary shares at $4.00 each [5][8] - Davis Commodities Limited (NASDAQ:DTCK) saw its stock price fall by 41.59% to $0.64, reflecting market reactions to global trade dynamics, while exploring a new vertical in the specialty food ingredients market projected to reach approximately $97.3 billion by 2025 [6][8] Market Sentiment - The significant price movements of these companies underscore the volatility and risks inherent in the stock market, influenced by company-specific developments, sectoral trends, and broader economic factors [7]

King Corn was one of the market’s that stormed to new session highs shortly before the close. There is a lot going on with December corn (ZCZ25) these days. Recall from Tuesday’s Commentary when I mentioned how technical analysis was largely a myth. The Dec25 corn contract is a good example. Sunday night through Monday morning saw Dec25 open lower before taking out Friday’s low of $4.2675, as well as the previous low of $4.2650 from October 31, on its way to a low of $4.2625. However, this did not trigger t ...

Core Insights - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) has a market cap of $27 billion and operates in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities globally [1] Performance Overview - ADM stock has underperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 12.3% and a 52-week gain of 6.5%, compared to the S&P 500 Index's gains of 14.3% in 2025 and 13.4% over the past year [2] - The stock has outperformed the Vaneck Agribusiness ETF (MOO), which saw an 8.4% increase year-to-date and a 2.2% decline over the past 52 weeks [3] Q3 Financial Results - In Q3, ADM reported a 2.2% year-over-year increase in revenue to $20.4 billion, missing expectations by 1.4% [4] - Adjusted EPS decreased from $1.09 to $0.92 but exceeded consensus estimates by 3.4% [4] Guidance and Analyst Ratings - The company revised its full-year EPS guidance down from $4.00 to a range of $3.25 - $3.50 [5] - Analysts expect an adjusted EPS of $3.45 for fiscal 2025, reflecting a 27.2% year-over-year decline [6] - The consensus rating among 11 analysts is a "Hold," with one "Strong Buy," seven "Holds," two "Moderate Sells," and one "Strong Sell" [6] Recent Downgrade - On November 5, JP Morgan downgraded ADM from "Equal-Weight" to "Underweight" and lowered the price target from $61 to $59 [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil market lacks driving forces, and short - term support levels should be monitored. The soybean oil market is experiencing low - level fluctuations due to the adjustment of US soybeans [1]. - The Malaysian palm oil inventory in October reached a two - year high, with production hitting a seven - year high, and the growth rate of inventory exceeded export demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,616 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.55%, and (night session) was 8,654 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44%. Trading volume was 556,601 lots, an increase of 92 lots, and open interest was 405,977 lots, an increase of 14,740 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,108 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02%, and (night session) was 8,116 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.10%. Trading volume was 282,360 lots, an increase of 21,372 lots, and open interest was 480,655 lots, a decrease of 2,668 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,443 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%, and (night session) was 9,453 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.11%. Trading volume was 163,529 lots, a decrease of 176,426 lots, and open interest was 213,040 lots, a decrease of 85 lots [1]. - **Spot Data**: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was - 46 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 412 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 427 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread was 827 yuan/ton, compared to 806 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread was - 508 yuan/ton, compared to - 554 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was expected to soar 3.5% to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023. The estimated production of crude palm oil in October was 1.94 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous month, reaching the highest level for that month since October 2018. Exports in October were expected to increase 3.8% to 1.48 million tons, the second consecutive monthly increase and the highest in nearly a year [2][4]. - **US Soybeans**: StoneX lowered its estimate of the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.9 bushels on October 1st to 53.6 bushels, and expected the 2025 US soybean production to be 4.303 billion bushels, lower than the previous forecast of 4.326 billion bushels. S&P Global Commodity Insights predicted the 2025 US soybean average yield per acre to be 53.0 bushels, consistent with the October forecast, and the production estimate was 4.260 billion bushels, previously 4.261 billion bushels [4]. - **Brazilian Crops**: StoneX's estimates of the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean and summer corn harvests remained largely unchanged. The November estimate of the 2025/26 soybean crop was 0.1% higher than the October estimate, expected to reach 178.9 million tons, mainly due to an increase in the estimated planting area in Goiás state. Irregular rainfall caused delayed sowing in several areas, and some plots needed replanting. Long - term forecasts indicated favorable weather for the harvest [5]. - **Regional Data**: In Mato Grosso state, the soybean crushing profit from October 27th - 31st was 502.44 reais/ton, up from 467.42 reais/ton the previous week. In Paraná state, the 2025/26 soybean planting area had reached 79% of the expected area, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good growth condition [5]. - **EU Imports**: As of November 2nd, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 960,000 tons, compared to 1.19 million tons last year; soybean imports were 3.81 million tons, compared to 4.59 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 6.11 million tons, compared to 6.24 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 1.26 million tons, compared to 2.19 million tons last year [6]. - **Kazakhstan Exports**: In September 2025, Kazakhstan's feed meal exports reached a record high of 305,000 tons, 2.5 times that of the same period last year and 14.5 times that of September 2023 [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil was 0, and that of soybean oil was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7].

Group 1 - Smithfield Foods is rated with a buy rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability in the coming years [1] - The company is focused on increasing its revenues, although specific targets or strategies are not detailed in the provided text [1] Group 2 - Daniel Mellado, an economist with a Master's Degree in Statistics, has experience in analyzing agricultural commodities and managing trading and data analysis teams [1] - Mellado's expertise includes developing strategies for algorithmic trading and analyzing financial statements, regulations, and macroeconomic variables to generate investment recommendations [1]

Company Overview - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) is involved in the production of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa, and other agricultural commodities [1] - ADM is one of the four major companies dominating the global grain market, alongside Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, and Bunge [1] Investment Analysis Approach - The company specializes in analyzing US bonds and commodities, with a focus on medium to long-term investment horizons while also considering short-term price movements [1] - The typical research process includes identifying undervalued or overvalued assets, reviewing fundamentals, and assessing technical and economic signals if the fundamentals yield meaningful results [1] - The analysis is primarily value-driven and contrarian, focusing on mispriced assets [1]

Core Insights - Egypt's wheat import volume is expected to decrease significantly, which may reduce its reliance on the international market and impact the global wheat supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1 - The potential reduction in Egypt's wheat imports could lead to changes in global wheat pricing and availability [1] - A decrease in imports may prompt Egypt to enhance domestic production capabilities, affecting international suppliers [1] - The shift in Egypt's import strategy could influence other countries' wheat export decisions and market strategies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The supply of spot goods is tight, and the customs clearance time in some regions has been extended to over 20 days. There are expectations of a huge arrival of Brazilian soybeans in May and June in China. The planting area of new - crop US soybeans is expected to decrease. The USDA April supply - demand report has a neutral impact. On the demand side, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before August, the inventory of meat and egg poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year. The downstream transaction and pick - up of goods have improved. Domestic soybean inventories are increasing but currently low, and soybean meal inventories have dropped significantly to a low level. Based on import cost support, it is recommended to consider buying on dips for far - month contracts [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian on April 17 was 650, down 161; in Tianjin, it was 670, down 121; in Rizhao, it was 400, down 221. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 350, down 111; in Dongguan, it was 270, down 41; in Zhanjiang, it was 310, down 21; in Fangcheng, it was 320, down 41. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 46, down 12 [6] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 580, down 10; the spread on the main contract was 640, up 26 [7] International Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.2502, down 2. The soybean CNF premium was 215.00 cents per bushel [7] Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventories are increasing but currently low, and soybean meal inventories have dropped significantly to a low level. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7][8] Supply - Demand Situation - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, and customs clearance time in some regions has been extended. There are expectations of a huge arrival of Brazilian soybeans in May and June in China. As of April 1, the purchase progress for May was 85.2%, June was 53.9%, July was 21.9%, and August was 4.9%. The USDA planting intention report in March lowered the planting area of new - crop US soybeans to 83.495 million acres, and it is expected to further decrease under the trade war. The USDA April supply - demand report has a neutral impact. Demand side: From the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before August; the inventory of meat poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and the inventory of egg poultry is expected to remain high before April. As the spot price drops, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal increases. In some regions, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The downstream transaction and pick - up of goods have improved [7][8]