Core Insights - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) has a market capitalization of $32.4 billion and is involved in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities and ingredients [1] Performance Overview - ADM shares have outperformed the broader market, gaining 41.8% over the past year compared to a 14% increase in the S&P 500 Index [2] - Year-to-date (YTD) performance shows ADM stock up 17.1%, exceeding the S&P 500's marginal rise [2] - Compared to the VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO), which gained 20.2% over the past year, ADM's YTD returns also surpass the ETF's 13.6% gains [3] Financial Results - In Q4, ADM reported an adjusted EPS of $0.87, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $0.83, but its revenue of $18.6 billion fell short of the forecasted $22.3 billion [5] - For the full fiscal year, ADM expects adjusted EPS to be in the range of $3.60 to $4.25 [5] Earnings Expectations - Analysts project ADM's EPS to grow by 17.5% to $4.03 on a diluted basis for the current fiscal year ending in December [6] - ADM has a strong earnings surprise history, beating consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters [6] Analyst Ratings - Among 11 analysts covering ADM, the consensus rating is a "Hold," with one "Strong Buy," six "Holds," two "Moderate Sells," and two "Strong Sells" [6] - Recent analysis indicates a less bearish outlook compared to a month ago, with three analysts suggesting a "Strong Sell" [8] Price Targets - ADM currently trades above its mean price target of $57.30, with a Street-high price target of $70 indicating a potential upside of 4% [9]

Q4 2025 Earnings Results Review February 4, 2026 Forward-Looking Statements • Today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current views with respect to future events, financial performance and industry conditions. • These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Bunge has provided additional information in its reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially ...

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call February 3, 2026 Proprietary business information of ADM. 2 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. All statements, other than statements of historical fact included in this release, are forward-looking statements. You can identify forward-looking statements ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月1日 本周宏观情绪偏强，带动油粕上行，周末随着情绪回吐以及澳菜籽成功入榨，油粕出现分化，菜粕回吐 较多。随着菜籽供应恢复兑现，后期油厂压榨将逐步增加，需要关注榨利兑现情况以及后期菜籽进口买 船装运节奏。 中国陆续采购加菜籽，ICE菜籽震荡 中加经贸缓和以来，市场陆续出现加菜籽进口成交，成交数量至少在10船以上，部分乐观预期或达15船 以上，平均来看3-5月月均进口可能在5船左右，折合30万吨以上。尽管如此，本周ICE菜籽反弹相对有 限，主力合约徘徊在650加元/吨左右。目前加菜籽累计出口仍同比偏低35%以上，暗示着外盘仍有潜在 供应压力。 首批澳菜籽顺利入榨，关注新船装运情况 本周首批澳菜籽成功通关入榨，菜粕基差报价环比走强，后期油粕交投氛围有望改善。由于中加菜籽贸 易缓和，澳菜籽进口预期有一定恶化，但在前期已经累计采购较多澳菜籽的前提下，后期仍需关注新一 轮澳菜籽装运情况。总的来看，3月以前油厂菜籽供应仍主要取决于澳菜籽，而年 ...

Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which could result in nearly $150 billion in refunds to importers if deemed illegal [1][2] Group 2: Companies Challenging Tariffs - Major corporations such as Costco, Revlon, EssilorLuxottica, Bumble Bee Foods, Yokohama Tire, and Kawasaki Motors have filed lawsuits against the U.S. government, contesting the IEEPA-based tariffs and seeking refunds [2] Group 3: Tariff Categories - The tariffs under the IEEPA fall into three categories: 1. Fentanyl-linked tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada 2. Broad "reciprocal" tariffs aimed at reducing trade deficits 3. Punitive levies against countries for non-trade political reasons [2] Group 4: Industries Exempt from Tariffs - Pharmaceuticals, energy, agricultural commodities, services, and aircraft/aerospace industries are largely exempt from U.S. tariffs due to their critical nature and potential impact on public health and international commerce [3] Group 5: Countries and Industries Affected by Tariffs - **China and Hong Kong**: Consumer electronics, machinery, medical devices, chemicals, toys with a tariff rate of 10% [4] - **Taiwan**: Semiconductors and chipmakers with a tariff rate of 20% [4] - **Mexico**: Autos and auto parts with no tariff for USMCA-compliant goods, but 25% for non-USMCA goods [4] - **Canada**: Metals and energy products with no tariff for USMCA-compliant goods, but 25% for non-USMCA goods [4] - **European Union and UK**: Autos and machinery with a tariff rate of 15% on most EU goods, and 10%-25% on UK goods depending on the product [4] - **Japan and South Korea**: Autos and machinery with reduced tariffs to about 15% [4] - **Southeast Asia**: Apparel and footwear with tariffs ranging from 19% to 20% [4]

Corn Market - The corn market showed a slight increase early Thursday, with the March contract (ZCH26) trading volume under 10,000 contracts and sitting 1.25 cents lower [1] - The National Corn Index ($CNCI) was reported at $4.10, with the national average basis at 36.75 cents under March futures, a slight improvement from 37.25 cents under March the previous Friday [1] - Export demand for US corn remains strong, but projections indicate a decrease in shipment pace [1] Soybean Market - The soybean market opened lower, with the March contract (ZSH26) down 3.5 cents after a drop of 5.5 cents, with 16,000 contracts traded [3] - Concerns over Brazilian weather may be influencing market sentiment, as Brazil is a major producer of both soybeans and coffee [3] - The March-May soybean futures spread covered 42.5% of the full commercial carry, indicating a stable outlook for Brazil's 2026 production potential [3] Wheat Market - The wheat sub-sector displayed mixed results, with HRW showing a small loss, HRS a small gain, and SRW mostly unchanged on light trading volume [4] - The March HRW contract was down 1.0 cent, while HRS was up 3.75 cents, indicating low trading activity [4] - National Cash Indexes for winter wheat have gained approximately 10.0 cents but remain below the previous five-year low prices, suggesting bearish market fundamentals [4] Global Trade and Defense Spending - The US president proposed a 50% increase in defense spending to $1.5 trillion, which may lead to a government shutdown [2] - International trade is expected to continue growing, but the US is becoming a slower-growing trade hub, with uncertain impacts on GDP [2] - The US Supreme Court may rule on the constitutionality of tariffs imposed by the president, but no immediate changes in trade policy are anticipated [2]

Corn Market - The corn market is experiencing mixed conditions with light trade volume, and the National Corn Index is calculated near $4.0775, indicating a bearish outlook on real supply and demand [1] - The average basis is at 36.75 cents under March futures, slightly improved from last week's 37.25 cents under, but still above the previous 5-year low of 30.25 cents under [1] - Noncommercial positions show a net-long futures position of 53,190 contracts, a decrease of 11,680 contracts as of December 30, indicating a reduction in speculative interest [1] Soybean Market - The soybean market is showing positive movement with the March issue gaining 16.25 cents, attributed to solid commercial buying interest [3] - Total sales of US soybeans to China were reported at 6.624 million metric tons, down 60% from the same week the previous year, suggesting a shift in purchasing strategies amid geopolitical tensions [3] - China is likely diversifying its supply sources while waiting for Brazil to rebuild its stocks, indicating strategic market behavior [3] Wheat Market - The wheat sub-sector is starting lower, reflecting ongoing bearish fundamentals despite a higher close on Monday [4] - The National Cash Indexes for wheat are below previous 5-year and 10-year lows, confirming that US supplies are exceeding demand [4] - Weekly export sales for US wheat showed a 26% increase in shipments compared to the previous year, indicating strong export activity despite weaker cash markets [4]

Market Overview - US stocks experienced fluctuations as Wall Street concluded a volatile trading year with significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all losing around 0.1% in early trading [1][6] - The S&P 500 is up over 17% for the year, marking its sixth year of 15%-plus gains in the last seven years, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen over 20% and the Dow is up over 13% [2] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 fell to 199,000 from a revised 215,000, surprising economists who had predicted an increase to 218,000 [7][8] - Continuing claims also decreased to 1.86 million from 1.91 million, contrary to expectations of a smaller decline to 1.90 million [9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy remains a focal point, with 85% of bets indicating that rates will remain steady in January [5][10] - The central bank's decision-making process is influenced by labor market conditions rather than inflation data, as indicated by the close call in the December meeting [10] Commodity Market - Sugar prices are on track for their largest annual decline since 2017, dropping approximately 21% due to oversupply [12] - Other agricultural commodities like cocoa and rice have also seen significant price drops, with futures contracts falling by 48% and 32% respectively [14] Currency Performance - The US dollar is set to finish its weakest year since 2017, declining over 9% year-to-date, influenced by economic concerns and a dovish Federal Reserve [15] - In contrast, the euro and pound have gained 13% and 7% respectively, marking their largest yearly gains in eight years [16]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has maintained its soybean export forecast while increasing its corn export forecast due to stronger-than-expected sales [1][2] Soybean Exports - The USDA projected soybean exports for the 2025/26 season at 1.635 billion bushels, with ending stocks remaining unchanged at 290 million bushels [2] Corn Exports - U.S. corn exports are now forecasted to reach a record 3.200 billion bushels, an increase from the previous estimate of 3.075 billion bushels [2] - End-of-season supplies for corn are estimated at 2.029 billion bushels, down from the prior month's forecast of 2.154 billion bushels [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural markets are expected to be influenced by three main themes in 2026: robust supply, subdued demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][8] - The resolution of the US-China trade dispute is crucial for US-origin demand, particularly for soybeans, as a trade deal could significantly increase Chinese purchases [1][2] - The ongoing Ukraine war complicates the situation, especially with recent attacks on Russian oil facilities impacting grain exports [1][2] Market Dynamics - **Soy Oil**: The market for soybean oil is projected to be bullish due to strong demand and constrained supply, with prices expected to average 58 cents per pound in 2026, up from 51 cents currently [3][6][114] - **Wheat and Soymeal**: A bearish outlook is maintained for wheat and soymeal, with prices expected to hover around $5 per bushel in 2026 due to strong supply and flat import demand from major buyers [3][6][24][28] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to strong US exports and potential USDA downgrades to US yields, but a reversal towards $4 per bushel could occur in the second half of 2026 [3][6][63] Geopolitical and Weather Factors - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations and the Ukraine conflict, continues to add uncertainty to agricultural markets [1][2][8] - Weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly La Niña effects, are being closely monitored, with early signs of dryness in Argentina and Brazil [2][19] Price Forecasts - **Wheat**: Expected to finish strong with a 30 million ton increase year-over-year across the top seven export nations, but prices are projected to remain depressed [6][24] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to stabilize around $4.5 per bushel in the next six months, with a potential drop to $4 per bushel in the latter half of 2026 [6][63] - **Soybeans**: Prices are anticipated to trade within the $11-$11.5 per bushel range into Q1 2026, driven primarily by Chinese demand [6][91] Additional Insights - The sugar market is expected to recover, moving from a 4 million ton deficit in 2024/25 to a 1.9 million ton surplus in 2025/26, with prices stabilizing around $15-$15.5 cents per pound [6][120] - The soybean meal market appears oversupplied, with prices expected to average $280 per ton in 2026, down from current forward prices of $331 per ton [6][120] - The biofuel industry is anticipated to compete intensely for soybean oil, potentially diverting it from food use, which could lead to higher prices [114][119][120] Conclusion - The agricultural sector is facing a complex interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors that will shape market dynamics in 2026. The bullish outlook for soybean oil contrasts with bearish trends in wheat and soymeal, while corn prices remain contingent on export performance and weather conditions.