人民财讯1月16日电，中信证券研报称，近期电子行业多个细分板块相关公司发布涨价通知，涉及存 储、CCL、BT载板、晶圆代工、封测等多细分领域，其背景是2025年以来因上游金属成本大幅提升， 叠加AI高景气对整体需求的拉动。考虑到本轮涨价周期的背景是AI超高景气，消费电子、汽车电子等 需求阶段性承压，建议关注存储、CCL、BT载板、晶圆代工、封装等在涨价趋势中受益确定性最高的 环节。 ...

Flash | 28 Dec 2025 18:52:53 ET │ 14 pages China CCL Sector KBL's Second Price Inflation This Month CITI'S TAKE KBL unveiled another round of price inflation this month with ASP up by 10% on copperclad laminate (CCL) with effective date of 26 Dec. We expect KBL's stock will rise positively on the next trading day on 29 Dec given the HK holiday on 26 Dec. Note other major A-share comps Shengyi Tech (600183.SS) rallied by 5% and Nanya New Material (688519.SS, NR) rose by 13%. We believe the ASP inflation shou ...

今天A股早盘快收盘的时候突发大跳水，创业板指从一度涨近1%到跌超0.4%，上下振幅差超过1%，但午盘大盘又小幅走强，三大指数均收涨，沪指八连 阳，波动放大下市场成交额也大幅放量至2.18万亿，创下11月以来新高，要知道今天可没有北向资金。 至于跳水的原因，除了近两周连续上涨积累的获利盘压力外，还有两个捕风捉影的消息：人民币汇率和A500ETF。近期A股走强和人民币汇率升值预期有一 定的关系，昨天离岸人民币一度升破7关口，人民币升值对出口不利，升值没问题但不能形成单边升值预期，如果管理层干预，确实对情绪有一定的影响。 另外，昨天和大家分享过，近期A股走强和A500ETF强劲的资金流入也有很大的关系，今天早盘跳水的时候，A500ETF再次集体大放量，资金的交易活跃度 提升，现在就是不知道近期A500ETF资金流入是短期行为还是长期配置。 自从A股平均成交额跌破2万亿后，我的一个经验是，缩量到极致往往是机会，而大放量一般都是短期顶部，道理很简单，因为机构普遍对短期内站稳4000 点没有底气，那就只能做波段，涨多了就会卖。我觉得年底市场抢跑的有点厉害，做多情绪有些一致，目前沪指已经八连阳了，如果出现大放量冲高回落就 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry, expecting it to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The electronic industry experienced rapid growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 2.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.86%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,003.33 billion yuan, up 33.41% year-on-year [28][32]. - The strong performance is attributed to robust demand from AI data centers, which boosted the demand for PCB/CCL components and server/switch hardware. Additionally, the recovery in traditional consumer electronics such as smartphones and PCs, along with emerging fields like AI glasses, AR/VR, and robotics, contributed to this growth [28][29]. - The industry's gross margin for the first three quarters was 13.36%, a slight decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 0.54 percentage points to 4.08% [28]. Summary by Sections Market Review and Valuation - The Shenwan electronic sector rose by 4.29% over the past two weeks (10/24-11/06), outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.40 percentage points, ranking third among Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the sector has increased by 49.97%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 30.69 percentage points [9][10]. Industry News - Major companies reported strong earnings: - Apple reported Q4 revenue of $102.47 billion, a 7.9% year-on-year increase, with expectations of 10%-12% growth in Q1 2026 [18]. - Amazon's AWS revenue grew by 20% year-on-year to $33.01 billion, marking the largest increase since 2022 [18]. - Alphabet's Q3 revenue was $102.35 billion, up 16% year-on-year, with Google Cloud revenue reaching $15.16 billion [18]. - Microsoft's Q1 revenue was $77.67 billion, an 18% increase year-on-year [18]. Industry Data - Global smartphone shipments in Q3 2025 reached 323 million units, a 2.57% year-on-year increase. In China, shipments were 21.64 million units, up 2.59% [20]. - The prices of LCD panels in October 2025 showed a slight decline, with 32-inch panels priced at $35, down $1 from the previous month [23]. Weekly Perspective - The report highlights the strong performance of various segments within the electronic industry: - PCB segment revenue grew by 24.61%, with net profit increasing by 61.41% [29]. - CCL segment revenue rose by 33.81%, with net profit up by 86.47% [29]. - Consumer electronics revenue increased by 27.56%, with net profit growing by 32.05% [29]. - Panel manufacturing revenue grew by 8.90%, with net profit increasing by 58.18% [32]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on specific companies due to their strong performance: - Huadian Technology reported a revenue of 13.51 billion yuan, up 49.96% year-on-year [33]. - Lixun Precision reported a revenue of 220.91 billion yuan, a 24.69% increase [33]. - Shenghong Technology's revenue surged by 83.40% to 14.12 billion yuan [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - The electronics industry continues to show strong performance in the first half of 2025, driven by the recovery in demand for smart terminals and the increasing need for AI computing power, with revenue and profit maintaining double-digit growth [2][89] - Each sub-sector has experienced rapid growth, particularly in AI-related segments such as PCB and CCL, which have shown remarkable performance and significant improvements in profitability [2][89] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview for H1 2025 - The total revenue for the electronics industry reached CNY 1,499.979 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.17% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 577.88 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 28.95%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 490.27 billion, up 32.31% year-on-year - The industry's gross margin was 13.15%, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved by 0.30 percentage points to 3.76% [12][11] 2. Sub-sector Performance PCB Sector - PCB sector revenue for H1 2025 was CNY 112.217 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 25.32% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 10.805 billion, up 61.03% year-on-year - The gross margin reached 22.25%, an increase of 2.24 percentage points, while the net margin improved to 9.56%, up 2.13 percentage points [22][33] CCL Sector - CCL sector revenue totaled CNY 19.130 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.23% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.627 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 52.37% - The gross margin was 21.16%, up 3.76 percentage points, and the net margin was 9.56%, an increase of 2.21 percentage points [38][49] Consumer Electronics Sector - Revenue in the consumer electronics sector reached CNY 811.048 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.28% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 290.43 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 25.67% - The gross margin was 9.96%, a decrease of 0.61 percentage points, while the net margin remained stable at 3.69% [57][72] Panel Manufacturing Sector - The panel manufacturing sector reported revenue of CNY 186.838 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.62% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 51.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 56.45% - The gross margin was 13.95%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points, while the net margin improved to 1.64%, up 0.89 percentage points [73][85] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: AI computing power and AI terminals - The demand for computing power is expected to increase due to the training and application of large AI models, with significant capital expenditure from overseas tech giants and domestic support for local computing applications - The second focus is on AI terminals, with expectations for a surge in new product releases in the consumer electronics sector in the second half of the year, particularly in the Apple supply chain and AI glasses industry [2][89]

Core Viewpoint - The PCB/CCL industry is experiencing a positive demand trend driven by AI computing power, with high utilization rates and expectations for continued growth in the second quarter of 2025. The overall demand is expected to remain strong due to advancements in AI applications and the increasing need for high-end products in the market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The industry is in an expansion phase, with downstream AI innovations driving demand upward. The overall demand for consumer electronics, automotive, and server upgrades is expected to improve [3][16]. - PCB manufacturers are operating at a capacity utilization rate of 90-95% in Q1 2025, with expectations for continued upward trends in Q2. The industry is entering a new capacity expansion phase, focusing on high-end HDI and multilayer boards [3][24][23]. - The global PCB market is projected to grow by 6.8% in 2025, with significant contributions from AI-related applications [33][35]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - AI computing power is driving rapid growth in high-end HDI and multilayer demand, with a tight supply-demand relationship expected to persist [4][43]. - The demand for CCL materials is increasing, particularly for high-frequency and high-speed applications, with leading domestic manufacturers poised to benefit significantly [5][29]. - The automotive sector is also seeing a trend towards smart technology, which is expected to drive demand for upgraded PCB specifications [6][20]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in the PCB supply chain, particularly in high-end boards, CCL, and domestic replacements. The ongoing AI-driven technological innovation cycle is expected to create broader market demand [8][9]. - Companies involved in high-end PCB production, such as those focusing on AI server applications, are recommended for investment due to the anticipated growth in this segment [8][9]. - The domestic PCB industry is expanding its high-end capacity and increasing its overseas presence, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] Core Insights - The electronics industry is expected to perform well in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by the recovery in terminal demand and innovations in AI [2][6] - Key segments such as consumer electronics, PCB/CCL, and panel manufacturing are showing strong performance [2][6] - The report highlights the importance of AI-driven hardware in sustaining growth, particularly in the PCB/CCL sector [2][6] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The electronics industry is projected to achieve a total revenue of CNY 28,036.40 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.04% [6][15] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 957.03 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 24.10% [6][15] - For Q1 2025, the industry anticipates a revenue of CNY 6,949.32 billion, reflecting an 18.47% year-on-year growth [6][23] Segment Performance Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is forecasted to grow by 21.32% in revenue to CNY 15,050.67 billion in 2024 [42] - Net profit for this segment is expected to increase by 15.60% [42] PCB Sector - The PCB sector is projected to see a revenue increase of 17.56% to CNY 2,015.90 billion in 2024 [97] - Net profit is expected to grow by 19.68% [97] CCL Sector - The CCL sector anticipates a revenue growth of 19.48% to CNY 316.63 billion in 2024 [122] - Net profit is expected to surge by 106.98% [122] Panel Manufacturing - The panel manufacturing sector is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 3,632.03 billion in 2024, marking a 4.10% increase [142] - Net profit is projected to grow significantly by 44.62% [142]

Core Viewpoint - The market's perception of valuation levels for the PCB and CCL industries has become more rational, with fundamental changes becoming more critical drivers of stock prices rather than valuation and earnings growth [1][2]. PCB Industry - The PCB industry has shown significant improvement in fundamentals, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 24% and a net profit growth of 52% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The average gross margin for PCB companies has risen to 20.2%, and the net profit margin has increased to 6.1% [3]. - Export quantities for PCB remained stable, with a notable year-on-year growth of 14% in February, although March showed no significant increase due to high base effects [3]. CCL Industry - The CCL industry has also seen improvements, with all major manufacturers achieving profitability in Q1 2025, and average gross and net profit margins rising to 15% and 3%, respectively [4]. - CCL manufacturers experienced a year-on-year price increase of 17%, 23%, and 14% from January to March, indicating strong market demand [4][5]. - The monthly revenue growth for Taiwanese CCL manufacturers was 22%, 60%, and 34% from January to March, reflecting a strengthening market sentiment [5]. Investment Strategy - The PCB industry is expected to continue its growth momentum into 2025, with a confirmed upward trend in demand recovery [6]. - Despite concerns over long-term demand due to trade tensions, the current stock prices and valuations in the sector are believed to reflect the worst expectations, presenting opportunities for strong alpha companies [6].