在1月31日的饭局结束后，黄仁勋在饭店门口接受媒体采访表 示 ， 2026 年 将 是 行 业 " 极 度 吃 紧 " 的 一 年 ， 对 高 带 宽 内 存 （HBM）和先进封装的需求将大幅爆发。算力，在2026年或 许依然会是资本市场的"热词"。 作者：郑晨烨 封图：视觉中国 2026年1月31日晚，一张合影开始在社交平台流传。 照片的背景是中国台湾省台北市的砖窑古早味怀旧餐厅，画面中，英伟达CEO黄仁勋与台积电董 事长魏哲家、鸿海董事长刘扬伟等多位AI供应链高管面对镜头，集体竖起了大拇指。 在这张合影中，黄仁勋坐在第一排正中央，他的身边是台积电董事长魏哲家、联发科执行长蔡力 行、广达电脑董事长林百里，纬创资通董事长林宪铭。在黄仁勋身后的，还有鸿海精密董事长刘扬 伟 、 和 硕 联 合 科 技 董 事 长 童 子 贤 、 工 业 富 联 （ 601138.SH ） 董 事 长 郑 弘 孟 、 胜 宏 科 技 （300476.SZ）董事长陈涛。全球绝大多数的AI服务器，都要在这些人的工厂里完成组装。 当天晚上，黄仁勋在台北市宴请了40多位供应链高管，根据社交平台流传的菜单，这顿饭的菜色 包括豆酥鳕鱼、芋头米 ...

Core Insights - The dinner hosted by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang in Taipei included key executives from major companies in the AI supply chain, highlighting the importance of collaboration in the industry [2][3] - Huang emphasized the challenges in the production of NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip, Blackwell, and indicated that the supply chain will be "extremely tight" in 2026 [3][12] - The event showcased the significant market value of the participating companies, collectively exceeding $5 trillion [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - TSMC's chairman, Wei Zhejia, confirmed that TSMC needs to work hard to meet NVIDIA's demand for wafers and CoWoS packaging capacity, with NVIDIA accounting for over 60% of TSMC's CoWoS demand in 2025 [3][4] - Major Taiwanese manufacturers like Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, and Wistron are responsible for assembling NVIDIA's AI supercomputing systems, indicating a clear division of labor within the supply chain [5] - The introduction of liquid cooling solutions by companies like Qihong Technology reflects the increasing power demands of new chips, necessitating advanced thermal management [5][6] Financial Performance - Victory Technology, a PCB manufacturer, anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of 260.35% to 295.00% year-on-year, driven by high-value product orders related to AI computing [6][7] - Industrial Fulian, a subsidiary of Hon Hai, expects a net profit increase of 51% to 54% for 2025, with a notable growth in cloud service server revenue [7][8] - Companies in the optical module sector, such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, are also experiencing substantial growth, with projected net profits increasing by up to 128.17% [8][9] Emerging Competitors - Domestic chip companies like Cambrian are achieving significant revenue growth, with projections indicating a 410.87% to 496.02% increase in 2025, marking their first annual profit [10][11] - The rise of domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Moer Technology and Tianxu Zhixin, reflects a shift towards local alternatives in the computing power market, driven by capital market support [11][12] - Huang's comments on the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging solutions suggest ongoing opportunities in the semiconductor sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - Shenghong Technology is accelerating its expansion with a capital expenditure of 36.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 380.16%, the highest among leading PCB manufacturers [1][34]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Financials - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shenghong Technology's capital expenditure reached 36.54 billion yuan, a significant increase of 380.16% year-on-year, leading the industry [2][34]. - The company's asset-liability ratio has exceeded 50%, with only 32 billion yuan in cash against 44 billion yuan in interest-bearing liabilities [3][36]. - Shenghong Technology achieved revenue of 141.17 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 83.39%, and net profit of 32.45 billion yuan, up 324.38% [14][47]. Group 2: Industry Context and Demand Drivers - The PCB industry is experiencing a pivotal moment due to the rapid growth of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles, which are driving demand for PCBs [5][38]. - The performance requirements for PCBs are increasing, particularly for AI servers, which now typically have 28 to 46 layers and thicknesses ranging from 2mm to over 3mm [6][39]. - The global PCB market is projected to grow from 73.57 billion USD in 2024 to 94.66 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% [7][40]. Group 3: Product and Technological Advancements - Multi-layer boards and HDI (High-Density Interconnect) are expected to be core growth components, with the multi-layer board market projected to reach 34.87 billion USD by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% [9][42]. - Shenghong Technology has established a strong position in high-end PCB production, having invested 26.5 billion yuan in R&D from 2017 to the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining a research expense ratio above 4% [9][42]. - The company has achieved significant technological advancements, including the ability to manufacture high multi-layer boards with over 100 layers and large-scale production of advanced HDI products [12][45]. Group 4: Strategic Expansion and Future Plans - Shenghong Technology is making substantial investments in machinery and equipment to expand production capacity, with 7 billion yuan allocated to machinery in the first half of 2025 [21][56]. - The company is also constructing "future" factories as part of its global strategy, with significant investments in Southeast Asia to enhance high-end PCB production capabilities [25][59]. - The company's overseas revenue has doubled from 3.24 billion yuan in 2020 to 6.53 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a high overseas revenue ratio of around 60% [27][62].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 saw significant growth across various sectors, with the top ten sectors experiencing substantial annual increases driven by factors such as AI demand, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors in 2025 included: - Optical communication modules with a growth of 156.02% - F5G concept rising by 128.33% - CPO concept increasing by 124.50% - Space station concept up by 115.95% - PCB sector growing by 112.11% - Foxconn rising by 111.69% - Nvidia concept increasing by 104.45% - Gold concept up by 97.35% - Robotics sector growing by 86.54% - New industrialization rising by 83.86% [1][2]. Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The surge in optical communication modules and CPO concepts was primarily driven by: - Explosive demand for AI computing power - Accelerated technological iterations - Domestic substitution and policy funding support [1]. - The PCB, Foxconn, and Nvidia concepts also benefited from: - Explosive growth in AI computing demand - Increased production and sales of high-end products due to AI servers - Resonance from the demand in new energy vehicles and consumer electronics, leading to historic high industry performance [1]. - The significant rise in the gold sector was attributed to: - The onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which lowered real interest rates and weakened the dollar - Escalating global geopolitical conflicts - Central banks' continued gold purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, driving safe-haven and asset allocation demand [1]. Group 3: Robotics Sector Insights - The robotics sector's growth was fueled by: - Deep integration of embodied intelligence and AI large models, leading to rapid breakthroughs in humanoid robot technology - Progress in Tesla's Optimus V3 adaptation for mass production - Acceleration of commercialization by domestic complete machine and core component enterprises - The establishment of offline stores for Yush Robot and the catalyzing effect of robot marathon events on industry enthusiasm [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 saw significant growth across various sectors, with the top ten sectors experiencing substantial annual increases driven by factors such as AI demand, technological advancements, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 1: Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors in 2025 included: - Optical Communication Modules with a growth of 156.02% - F5G Concept with a growth of 128.33% - CPO Concept with a growth of 124.50% - Space Station Concept with a growth of 115.95% - PCB with a growth of 112.11% - Foxconn with a growth of 111.69% - Nvidia Concept with a growth of 104.45% - Gold Concept with a growth of 97.35% - Robotics with a growth of 86.54% - New Industrialization with a growth of 83.86% [1][2] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The surge in Optical Communication Modules and CPO Concept was primarily driven by: - Explosive demand for AI computing power - Accelerated technological iterations - Domestic substitution and policy funding support [1] - The growth in PCB, Foxconn, and Nvidia Concept was attributed to: - Explosive growth in AI computing demand - Increased production and sales of high-end products due to AI servers - Resonance with demand from new energy vehicles and consumer electronics, leading to record-high industry performance [1] - The significant rise in the Gold Concept was driven by: - The onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which lowered real interest rates and weakened the dollar - Escalating global geopolitical conflicts and ongoing central bank gold purchases, alongside a trend towards de-dollarization, creating a demand for safe-haven assets [1]

Core Insights - ByteDance and ZTE are collaborating to launch the Doubao AI phone in December, marking ByteDance's first foray into the smartphone market, which is seen as a revolutionary AI smart entry rather than a simple smartphone upgrade [1] - The Doubao phone is expected to create significant growth opportunities in the consumer electronics sector, akin to the "Seres" model in the automotive industry [1] Group 1: Product and Technology - ByteDance is implementing a "big model + super application + hardware" closed-loop strategy, leveraging its self-developed large model capabilities, its own super app ecosystem, and a vast global user base [2] - The Doubao phone will feature deep AI integration, allowing it to perform complex tasks through voice commands, such as booking flights and organizing meeting notes, thus acting as a personal intelligent assistant [2][3] - The device aims to create a seamless ecosystem across various devices, breaking down barriers between smartphones, wearables, tablets, and smart home devices [2] Group 2: Market Impact and Partnerships - ZTE is positioned to benefit significantly from this collaboration, potentially revitalizing its smartphone brand by integrating ByteDance's AI ambitions into the Doubao phone [4] - Kexiang Co., Ltd. is also a major beneficiary, deeply integrated into ByteDance's ecosystem through its supply chain partnerships with ZTE and other key players [5] - Kexiang is positioned to meet the increasing demand for high-density, high-frequency, and lightweight PCB solutions driven by the AI phone's requirements [7]

Core Insights - The AI application market is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like Google, Alibaba, and ByteDance competing in the AI agent sector [1][3] - ByteDance is projected to exceed 160 billion yuan in AI capital expenditure by 2025, positioning itself as a leading enterprise in the AI agent space [3] - Kaixiang Co., a leading PCB manufacturer, is strategically embedded in the supply chains of major companies like ByteDance and ZTE, capitalizing on the growth of AI terminals [4][5] Industry Developments - ByteDance's AI strategy focuses on "full-stack self-research + scenario explosion," leading to significant advancements in AI agent technologies [3] - The company’s AI products, such as the Doubao model and Seedance video generation model, are leading the industry, with consumer products like AI toys and headphones gaining traction [3] - The demand for AI terminals is expected to surge, with predictions indicating that AI smartphones will account for over half of shipments by 2028 [6] Company Positioning - Kaixiang Co. has established a strong foothold in the supply chain for AI hardware through partnerships with ODM manufacturers like Huaqin Technology and Wingtech Technology [5][6] - The company’s high-frequency and high-speed PCB products are well-suited to meet the increasing demands of AI model training and data center upgrades [5] - Kaixiang Co. has developed a product matrix that includes high-end PCBs for AI servers, storage chips, and consumer electronics, positioning itself for significant growth as AI agents move from concept to mass production [7]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer electronics industry is entering a new AI-driven iteration cycle, with mobile phones and smart wearables becoming the best entry points for AI applications. Canalys predicts that by 2028, the shipment proportion of AI smartphones will exceed 50%, driving a surge in demand for high-end PCBs due to increased terminal integration [1]. Group 1: Company Positioning and Strategy - The company, Kexiang Co., is a leading PCB manufacturer in China, with nearly 20% of its revenue coming from consumer electronics. It has established deep integration into the supply chains of major brands like ZTE and Xiaomi through a dual strategy of direct partnerships and ODM indirect channels, positioning itself to benefit from the industry's super cycle [1][2]. - Kexiang Co. has a high sales proportion of high-end consumer electronics PCBs, particularly for smartphones, and has formed partnerships with several well-known ODM manufacturers, making it a significant supplier in the smartphone PCB industry [2][3]. - The company has been collaborating with ZTE since 2020, and starting in 2024, it will upgrade its product orders to focus on mid-to-high-end PCBs for mobile phones and communication devices, with steadily increasing unit prices [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Product Offerings - Kexiang Co. is leveraging its advanced technology to meet the high-density integration demands of AI smartphones, capable of mass-producing 14-16 layer HDI boards with a minimum line width/spacing of 0.05mm, suitable for multi-chip collaborative computing [5]. - The company's high-frequency and high-speed boards utilize low-loss dielectric materials, ensuring signal transmission stability that meets the standards of major clients like Huawei and ZTE, making them suitable for high-speed data processing scenarios in AI terminals [5]. - Kexiang Co. has entered the supply chains of AR glasses manufacturers like Meta and Rokid with its ePOP storage products, positioning itself in the emerging virtual and augmented reality terminal market. The company has accumulated over 300 authorized patents and plans to invest 6% of its R&D budget in 2024, particularly in high-end fields like MiniLED packaging substrates [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Growth Potential - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of AI terminals, which will drive demand for high-end PCBs. Its strong customer matrix and technological reserves create synergistic advantages, positioning it to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and profit during the industry's super cycle [6]. - In the short term, the improving consumer electronics market is likely to release incremental orders for Kexiang Co. from collaborations with clients like ZTE, Xiaomi, Samsung, and DJI [6].

Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.27% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 314 million yuan, up 19.58% year-on-year; in Q3 2025, net profit was 92 million yuan, showing a significant growth of 252.87% [2] Strategies for Profitability Improvement - Focus on high-value customers and orders, optimizing sales structure by managing loss-making orders and increasing high-value orders [3] - Strengthen the sales team by expanding and optimizing the overseas sales force, implementing performance evaluation mechanisms [3] - Enhance cost management through standardized cost management practices to reduce unit product costs [4] - Improve order delivery and customer service by enhancing internal communication and optimizing production scheduling [4] Raw Material Cost Management - The company is facing rising raw material costs, particularly for copper and other key materials, which have seen significant price increases since June 2024 [5] - Measures to mitigate cost pressures include dynamic monitoring of costs, improving material utilization, and implementing price adjustment strategies [6] Capacity Utilization and Expansion Plans - Current overall capacity utilization is approximately 85% [7] - The company is accelerating capacity expansion in various plants to meet market demand, including the construction of a new HDI factory [7] Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary, San De Guan, has turned profitable in Q3 2025, despite challenges in the flexible printed circuit board (FPC) sector [8] Future Growth Drivers - Anticipated growth in 2026 will be driven by increased demand in mobile, server, and communication sectors, with a focus on high-layer boards and IC substrates [9][10] - The company plans to enhance its competitive advantages in product quality, cost control, and pricing strategies while developing new key customers [10]

Core Insights - The PCB supply chain is facing significant shortages of upstream materials, particularly affecting high-end substrates like ABF and BT boards, with expectations of shortages lasting for another year [2] - The demand for PCBs is projected to remain strong over the next 2-3 years, with a peak expected in Q4, despite the ongoing material shortages [2][3] - The shortage is attributed to a surge in demand from the recovering global electronics industry and the vulnerabilities in the supply chain [2][5] Industry Overview - The global demand for AI servers is driving a substantial increase in capital expenditures among major cloud service providers, with a forecasted total exceeding $420 billion by 2025, representing a 61% increase from previous years [3][4] - The price of PCBs for AI training servers can exceed $200,000, significantly higher than traditional server PCBs, which range from $3,000 to $15,000 [3][4] - The supply shortage is affecting the entire PCB industry, particularly in core materials like copper foil, which has a projected demand of 850 tons per month by 2025 against a current production capacity of only 700 tons [4][5] Financial Performance - Leading PCB manufacturers are experiencing substantial revenue growth, with companies like Huadian achieving a 39.92% increase in revenue to 5.019 billion yuan and a 46.25% rise in net profit to 1.035 billion yuan in Q3 [6] - Willgo reported a 41.33% increase in revenue to 407 million yuan and a remarkable 175.75% increase in net profit [6] Market Trends - The global PCB market is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with a projected market value of $73.565 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year growth [7] - By 2029, the global PCB market value is anticipated to reach $94.661 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.2% from 2024 to 2029 [7] Capacity Expansion - At least 11 PCB companies have announced expansion plans, with significant investments aimed at increasing high-end production capacity to meet rising demand [9] - Companies like Jingwang Electronics and Shengyi Technology are investing heavily in expanding their production capabilities, with plans to invest 5 billion yuan and 1.9 billion yuan, respectively [9] Strategic Insights - While leading companies are expanding capacity to capture AI market opportunities, there is a risk of overcapacity if demand growth slows down post-2026 [10] - Smaller manufacturers are advised to focus on niche markets and technological differentiation to avoid direct competition with larger firms and mitigate risks associated with overcapacity [10][11]