【博时市场点评9月24日】两市震荡上涨，创业板涨2.28% 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数上涨，创业板涨超2.2%，电力设备、电子行业涨幅领先，两市成交缩量至2.3万亿。 昨日两融余额小幅缩量，节前资金情绪或趋于谨慎。近年来国内政策在逆周期和跨周期调节之间平衡， 经济更加注重实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。近期经济增长动能有所减弱，但全年经济增长目标完 成难度不大，政策或仍以托底为主，在落实前期政策等待效果的同时，针对需求不足的核心问题精准施 策，一方面美联储降息后我国货币政策空间打开，另一方面前期"以旧换新"政策效果边际减弱，促进服 务性消费等提振需求的政策或将延续，10月中下旬或是重要的时间窗口。 消息面 国家能源局发布数据显示，8月全社会用电量达到10154亿千瓦时，同比增长5%。7、8月份连续两个月 全社会用电量超万亿千瓦时，这在全球也是首次。当月全国制造业用电量同比增长5.5%，为今年以来 最高。高技术及装备制造业用电量同比增长9.1%，增速显著高于制造业平均水平。 简评：用电量是反映经济活力的"晴雨表"。连续两个月破万亿千瓦时，且制造业特别是高技术制造业用 电增速领先，表明在"两新""两重"等政策拉动 ...

And right now we are 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick Bostic here with Matt Miller taking you through to that closing bell with a global simulcast Carol Massar. And Tim Stenovec, join us from the radio booth.Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, including our partnership with YouTube right across the screen. Carol Massar though that was a bit of a change from what we saw just a few hours ago. Yeah, not a new record, right.We've talked about you know, ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.02% and 0.16% respectively, with sectors like hyperbaric oxygen chambers, DRG concepts, and liquid-cooled servers leading the gains [1] - In the US market, the Dow Jones Index slightly decreased by 1.11 points to 42,761.76 points, while the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, marking its first close above 6000 points since February 21. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points, achieving a new closing high since late February [2] Export and Import Trends - According to CITIC Securities, China's export growth rate slightly declined by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% in May, influenced by a drop in April export orders and a high base from the previous year. Exports to non-US markets remained strong, indicating ongoing "transshipment" activities among foreign trade enterprises [3] - The report highlights that the semiconductor, automotive, and machinery sectors significantly contributed to export growth. However, imports saw a larger decline, particularly from the US and major bulk commodities [3] AI Application Insights - Huatai Securities notes that the commercialization of AI agents is accelerating, particularly in sectors where data processes are standardized and ROI can be quantified. The ToC (business-to-consumer) scenarios are advancing faster due to simpler demands, while ToB (business-to-business) applications in marketing and sales are transitioning from exploration to large-scale application [4] Banking Sector Outlook - Galaxy Securities indicates that positive factors are accumulating in the banking sector, with the central bank injecting liquidity of 1 trillion yuan through reverse repos. This is expected to help banks manage the pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit and lower deposit rates [5] - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a performance turnaround, supported by improved liquidity transparency and structural financial policies [5] Power Equipment Sector Analysis - CITIC Jiantou emphasizes that the power equipment sector maintains a favorable outlook, driven by strong domestic and overseas demand. It forecasts that domestic grid investment will exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, with continued growth potential [6] - The report also highlights the global trend of large-scale data center construction, which is expected to significantly boost the demand for supporting electrical equipment [6]

Group 1 - The global capital market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices surpassing $3200 per ounce, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and instability in the digital currency system [1] - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold are showing signs of weakness, as evidenced by a nearly 2% drop in gold ETFs following positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, indicating vulnerability to policy shifts [1] - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves for 17 consecutive months reflects structural anxiety regarding the credibility of the US dollar system, suggesting that gold may only serve as a temporary solution in a shifting order [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin is emerging as a new safe-haven asset, demonstrating resilience during the US dollar depreciation cycle, attracting institutional funds due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature, despite its volatility [2] - Chinese core assets are gaining attention as safe-haven investments, with foreign capital increasingly allocating to undervalued sectors such as banking, power equipment, and biopharmaceuticals, particularly benefiting from high dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment [2] - The safe-haven logic of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc is evolving, with the yen's exchange rate becoming more correlated with the VIX index following the Bank of Japan's policy changes, while the Swiss franc remains a refuge for European capital due to its high gold reserve ratio [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's impending shift in monetary policy is expected to impact various commodities, with historical data indicating that industrial precious metals like copper and silver typically see average gains of 18% within three months of the first rate cut, outpacing gold's 7% [3] - The potential resolution of US-China trade agreements may create new investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electric vehicles, cross-border payments, and biotechnology, which could replicate the explosive growth seen in the 2024 Hongmeng Zhixing industry chain [3] - There are hidden opportunities in "asymmetric risks," where investing in volatility index (VIX) derivatives could serve as insurance against unexpected market movements when the market collectively bets on interest rate cuts [3] Group 4 - As the allure of gold as a safe haven diminishes, capital is seeking more aggressive safety margins, requiring investors to build dynamic portfolios that hedge recession risks with US Treasuries, capture benefits from digital currency transitions, and share in the growth of core Asian assets [4] - Historical events such as the Great Depression and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system have shown that the disintegration of old orders often paves the way for the emergence of new investment opportunities and market leaders [4]