Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Supply-side reform in China is evolving, focusing on mid-to-downstream sectors rather than solely on upstream sectors as in previous reforms [2] - The current reform approach is more nuanced and balanced, addressing advanced capacity rather than outdated capacity [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025 due to diminishing export momentum and fiscal easing [11] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform is characterized as "new wine in an old bottle," emphasizing the importance of demand for economic reflation [2] - The targeted sectors have shifted from SOE-dominated to POE-dominated firms, indicating a change in ownership dynamics [2] Economic Growth - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline to less than 4.5% in the latter half of 2025, influenced by fading export growth and fiscal easing measures [11] - The economy is expected to remain on a slow reflation path, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving robust growth [11] Housing Market - The housing market continues to face challenges, with elevated inventory levels in lower-tier cities and a persistent decline in housing prices [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering expanding funding channels to address housing inventory issues, which may depend on various factors including funding size and developer selection [22] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal space in China is becoming more constrained, with major tax revenues and land sales underperforming against budget expectations [38][43] - The report suggests that China needs not only new stimulus measures but also a reformed growth algorithm to address structural issues in the economy [44] Reflation Strategy - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy, which includes measures such as expanding fiscal deficits, monetary easing, and social welfare spending to stimulate consumption [47] - The strategy aims for a gradual and uneven progress towards economic recovery, with various policy measures expected to be implemented by the end of 2025 [47]

4月17日晚间，芳源股份公告称，由于市场环境和公司经营发展战略变化，公司决定终止投资不超过30亿元的"电池级碳酸锂生产及废旧磷酸 铁锂电池综合利用项目"。 谈及投资项目终止的原因，公司表示，自该项目启动以来，市场环境和公司经营发展战略均发生了显著变化。 今日（4月18日），公司董秘办人士表示，目前公司主营业务仍重点集中于三元正极材料及电池级碳酸锂领域；上述"废旧磷酸铁锂电池综合 利用项目"原计划布局磷酸锂铁领域，但受近期市场竞争激烈等影响，公司决定终止相关项目建设。 回溯上述整个项目布局，早在2023年2月，芳源股份披露，计划投资不超过20亿元，分两期建设年报废30万吨磷酸铁锂电池回收、年产8万 吨磷酸铁锂正极材料项目。2023年5月，芳源股份设立了全资子公司芳源锂业作为本次投资项目的实施主体。 时隔一个月，2023年6月，芳源股份又发布《关于变更投资项目的公告》，将前述投资项目变更为"电池级碳酸锂生产及废旧磷酸铁锂电池综 合利用项目"，总投资金额不超过30亿元。2023年7月，芳源锂业通过公开竞拍的方式竞得项目建设用地并取得了不动产权证书。 芳源股份主要从事锂电池三元正极材料前驱体和镍电池正极材料的研发、生 ...

2025锂电行业持续回暖，细分领域大单频现。 比如三元正极材料领域，龙头企业当升科技3月3日与SK On签订1.7万吨高镍及中镍等多型号锂 电正极材料采购订单；设备领域，京山轻机2月28日宣布全资子公司三协精密与锂电某龙头企 业全资子公司签署了日常采购订单协议，总金额约达到人民币10.20亿元（含税）。 此后，电解液领域又迎来大额订单，规模达到10万吨级别！ 3月5日， 石大胜华发布公告显示，其控股子公司胜华新材料科技（连江）有限公司（以下简 称：胜华连江）与宁德时代签订了《战略合作框架协议》。 客户方面，目前与宁德时代、 中创新航、厦门海辰等头部企业保持合作。 协议约定，自本协议生效之日起至2025年12月31日， 宁德时代向胜华连江采购电解液的需求 预计10万吨。 具体产品名称、规格型号、单价、数量、技术标准等以双方书面确认的订单或其 他书面文件为准。 资料显示，石大胜华成立于2002年，坚持围绕碳酸酯类产品，聚焦新能源、新材料领域，打造 立体化完整产业链，纵向延伸精细化工品业务，横向开拓锂电新材料产品，形成了锂电池溶 剂、电解液、高端新材料三大业务板块。 在锂电板块，石大胜华大力推进锂电材料产业链布局， ...