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油脂油料早报-20260401
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents comprehensive information on the overnight market of oilseeds and oils, including data on soybean inventory, planting area, export volume, and palm - oil related policies and export data [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 US Soybean Data - The US 2026 March 1st quarterly soybean inventory was 2.104803 billion bushels, higher than the analyst estimate of 2.067 billion bushels and the 2025 March 1st inventory of 1.910924 billion bushels. Farm - inside inventory was 900 million bushels, and farm - outside inventory was 1.204803 billion bushels [1] - The US 2026 soybean planting area was estimated at 84.7 million acres, lower than the market expectation of 85.549 million acres, but higher than the 2025 actual planting area of 81.215 million acres [1] - Analysts predicted that the US soybean processors' February 2026 soybean crush might reach 214.3 million bushels. If the average prediction was accurate, it would be a 5.9% decrease from January and a 13.1% increase from February 2025. The average daily crush in February would reach 7.654 million bushels, a record high [1] - Based on the average prediction of five analysts, the US soybean oil inventory as of February 28, 2026, was expected to be 2.626 billion pounds, a 8.0% increase from the end of January and a 36.5% increase from the end of February 2025 [1] 3.2 Brazilian Soybean Data - Anec data showed that Brazil's March 2026 soybean export volume was estimated at 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than the previous week's prediction. The March 2026 soybean meal export volume was estimated at 2.24 million tons, also lower than the previous week's prediction [1] 3.3 Malaysian Palm - Oil Data - AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's March 1 - 31, 2026, palm - oil product export volume was 1,607,065 tons, a 56.7% increase from the previous month [1] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's March 2026 palm - oil product export volume was 1,658,021 tons, a 44.3% increase from the previous month [1] 3.4 Indonesian Palm - Oil Data - Indonesia will increase the mandatory blending ratio of palm - oil - based biodiesel from 40% to 50% (B50) starting from July 1, 2026, which is part of a broader plan to deal with the Iran war risk and will reduce fossil - fuel use by 4 million kiloliters per year [1] - Indonesia set the April 2026 crude palm - oil reference price at $989.63 per ton, higher than the March price. The March export tax will be raised to $148 per ton, and an additional 10% special export tax is imposed [1] 3.5 Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 25 to March 31, 2026 [5] 3.6 Other Information - The report also mentions the precipitation in major producing countries, the import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, and the import profit of oils, as well as the basis of oils and protein meals, and the price spread of oilseeds and oils on the futures market. However, specific data is not provided [1][7][9]
油脂油料早报-20260323
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 01:28
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - Brazilian 2025/26 soybean harvest rate reaches 65.79%, lags behind last year's 73.84% but is close to the five - year average of 66.96%. Rainfall in central Brazil is a concern, but overall situation is positive, and Mato Grosso leads with a 99.1% harvest rate [1] - Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 20 increase by 49.6% (AmSpec) and 38.1% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [1] - China's January 2026 palm oil imports decrease by 5.94% month - on - month, and February imports decrease by 1.61% month - on - month. January rapeseed imports increase by 117.54% month - on - month, and February imports decrease by 42.39% month - on - month. January rapeseed meal imports increase by 11.26% month - on - month, and February imports decrease by 31.14% month - on - month [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazilian soybean harvest rate, palm oil export data from Malaysia, and China's palm oil, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal import data are presented [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 16 - 20, 2026 are provided [2] Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - Only the headings are given, no specific content [3] Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads - Only the heading is given, no specific content [5] Main Producing Country Precipitation Conditions - Only the heading is given, no specific content [1] Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit - Only the heading is given, no specific content [1] Oil Import Profit - Only the heading is given, no specific content [1]
油脂油料早报-20260313
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 00:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean production in the 2026/27 season is expected to increase, with the baseline output estimated to be 4.49 billion bushels or 122.3 million tons, a 5.4% increase from the previous year, due to an expected 5.6% increase in planting area to 85.8 million acres, driven by the reduction in corn area and the growth of domestic crushing/biological fuel demand [1]. - Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, despite low producer profit margins, as some marginal areas may be abandoned while others expand. Global oilseed demand is still growing, and any potential drought in major producing countries could lead to supply disruptions [1]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 26.54% compared to the same period of the previous month. The reference price of Malaysian crude palm oil in April 2025 was raised, and the export tariff was adjusted to 9.5% [1]. - Indonesia's crude palm oil production in 2025 increased by 7.3% year - on - year to 51.66 million tons. Producers are aiming to increase production in 2026, but weather challenges and regulatory issues may limit the growth to 1% - 2%. The supply constraints may also hinder the plan to re - introduce mandatory B50 palm - based biofuels later in the year [1]. - India's palm oil imports in February 2025 increased by 11% month - on - month to the highest level in six months, due to the large price discount compared to competing oils. However, the imports may decline in March due to the narrowing price discount. The total vegetable oil imports in February decreased by 2% month - on - month due to a significant drop in sunflower oil purchases [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 U.S. Soybean and Bean Meal Export Sales - For the week ending March 5, U.S. soybean export sales net increased by 46.62 million tons. The current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 45.67 million tons, a 19% increase from the previous week and a 2% decrease from the four - week average. The market had expected a net increase between 25.0 million tons and 80.0 million tons. The export shipment was 99.53 million tons, an 11% decrease from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the four - week average. The new sales of the current - market - year soybean were 47.09 million tons, and the new sales of the next - market - year soybean were 0.95 million tons [1]. - For the week ending March 5, U.S. bean meal export sales net increased by 16.62 million tons. The current - market - year bean meal export sales net increased by 16.60 million tons, a 35% decrease from the previous week and a 51% decrease from the four - week average. The market had expected a net increase between 15.0 million tons and 35.0 million tons. The export shipment was 36.06 million tons, a 38% increase from the previous week and a 1% decrease from the four - week average. The new sales of the current - market - year bean meal were 18.26 million tons, and the new sales of the next - market - year bean meal were 0.02 million tons [1]. 3.2 Brazil and U.S. Soybean Planting Outlook - SLCAgricola's CEO believes that Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season is expected to remain stable or increase slightly. Some marginal areas may be abandoned, while others will expand. Global oilseed demand is growing, and any drought in major producing countries could cause supply disruptions. U.S. farmers in the 2026/27 season may expand soybean planting and reduce corn planting due to the high cost of nitrogen fertilizers for grains, which is affected by the Middle - East conflict [1]. - Industry analysts predict that the U.S. soybean baseline output in the 2026/27 season will increase by 5.4% to 4.49 billion bushels or 122.3 million tons. The planting area is expected to increase by 5.6% to 85.8 million acres, mainly due to the reduction in corn area and the growth of domestic crushing/biological fuel demand. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates the planting area and output to be 85.0 million acres and 4.45 billion bushels respectively, with a planting intention report to be released on March 31 [1]. 3.3 Malaysian and Indonesian Palm Oil - SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from March 1 - 10, 2025, were 346,061 tons, a 26.54% increase from the same period of the previous month. Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil for April 2025 to 3,935.19 Malaysian ringgit per ton, and the export tariff was adjusted to 9.5% [1]. - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) reported that Indonesia's crude palm oil production in 2025 increased by 7.3% year - on - year to 51.66 million tons. The inventory at the end of 2025 was 2.07 million tons, a 25% decrease from the previous month. Producers aim to increase production in 2026, but weather challenges may limit the growth to 1% - 2%. The supply constraints may also affect the plan to re - introduce mandatory B50 palm - based biofuels [1]. 3.4 Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - A trade organization reported that India's palm oil imports in February 2025 increased by about 11% month - on - month to 847,689 tons, the highest level in six months, due to the large price discount compared to competing oils. However, the imports may decline to about 800,000 tons in March due to the narrowing price discount. The total vegetable oil imports in February decreased by 2% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, mainly due to a 45% decrease in sunflower oil purchases [1]. 3.5 Price and Basis Data - The report provides spot prices of various oilseeds and oils, including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 6 - 12, 2026 [4]. - There are also multiple charts showing the basis and price spreads of different oilseeds and oils over different time periods and contract months, such as the basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, and the price spreads between different contracts of these products [5][9][10].
油脂油料早报-20260227
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 01:43
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core Viewpoints - The export sales and shipment data of US soybeans and soybean meal in the week ending February 19th showed certain changes compared to previous weeks and four - week averages, with export sales of US soybeans and soybean meal decreasing in most cases, while the export shipment of US soybean meal increased [1] - The palm oil production in Malaysia from February 1st to 25th, 2026 decreased by 16.25% compared to the previous period, along with a decrease in鲜果串单产 and an increase in oil extraction rate [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Soybeans**: In the week ending February 19th, the net increase in export sales of US soybeans in the current market year was 40.71 million tons, a 49% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the four - week average. The market expected a net increase of 40.0 - 100.0 million tons. The export shipment was 81.15 million tons, a 37% decrease from the previous week and a 36% decrease from the four - week average. The new sales in the current market year were 51.06 million tons, and 0 million tons in the next market year [1] - **US Soybean Meal**: In the week ending February 19th, the net increase in export sales of US soybean meal in the current market year was 26.96 million tons, a 44% decrease from the previous week and a 36% decrease from the four - week average. The market expected a net increase of 25.0 - 50.0 million tons. The export shipment was 46.53 million tons, a 14% increase from the previous week and a 36% increase from the four - week average. The new sales in the current market year were 32.08 million tons, and 3.00 million tons in the next market year [1] - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From February 1st to 25th, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 16.25% compared to the previous period, with a 16.78% decrease in鲜果串单产 and a 0.10% increase in oil extraction rate [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from February 12th to 26th, 2026 are provided, showing price fluctuations during this period [3]
油脂油料早报-20260121
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 01:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents various data on the oilseeds and oils industry, including US soybean export inspection, Brazilian soybean export forecasts, Malaysian palm oil exports, and China's imports of soybeans, palm oil, rapeseed, etc. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - From January 1 - 15, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,336,684 tons, meeting market expectations (previous estimate: 1,000,000 - 1,400,000 tons). The export inspection volume to China was 611,983 tons, accounting for 45.78% of the total. The cumulative export inspection volume for the current crop - year is 19,335,069 tons, compared to 32,314,423 tons in the same period last year. [1] - A private exporter reported a 190,000 - ton soybean meal export sale to the Philippines in the 2025/2026 market year. [1] - Anec slightly increased the forecast of Brazilian soybean exports in January 2026 to 3.79 million tons (previously 3.73 million tons), and the forecast of soybean meal exports remained at 1.82 million tons. [1] - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20, 2026, increased by 11.4% month - on - month to 947,939 tons. According to AmSpec, the exports increased by 8.64% month - on - month to 892,428 tons. [1] - In 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 111.83 million tons, a 6.5% year - on - year increase. Brazil supplied 82.32 million tons (up 10.3% year - on - year), Argentina supplied 7.89 million tons (up 92.4% year - on - year), while the US supply decreased by 24% to 16.82 million tons, accounting for only 15% of China's total imports (down from 21% in the previous year). [1] - In December 2025, China's palm oil imports were 277,162.70 tons, a 17.03% month - on - month decrease and a 12.96% year - on - year decrease. The imports from Indonesia were 247,735.25 tons (down 5.73% month - on - month, up 1.25% year - on - year), and from Malaysia were 25,361.92 tons (down 62.29% month - on - month, down 65.60% year - on - year). [1] - In December 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 55,553.17 tons, a 2680.03% month - on - month increase and a 90.79% year - on - year decrease. The imports from Canada were 48,348.72 tons (down 91.78% year - on - year), and from Kazakhstan were 3,995.10 tons (up 130.72% month - on - month). [1] - In December 2025, China's rapeseed meal imports were 238,210.15 tons, a 10.93% month - on - month increase and a 22.59% year - on - year decrease. The imports from the UAE were 61,608.03 tons (up 24.63% month - on - month, up 11.97% year - on - year), and from Russia were 60,415.10 tons (down 32.18% month - on - month, up 414.67% year - on - year). [1] - In December 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 219,519.16 tons, a 32.99% month - on - month increase and a 2.89% year - on - year increase. The imports from Russia were 160,012.15 tons (up 46.49% month - on - month, up 2.97% year - on - year), and from Belarus were 23,241.41 tons (up 53.27% month - on - month, down 13.25% year - on - year). [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 14 - 20, 2026, are presented in a tabular format, showing price fluctuations during this period. [4] Protein Meal Basis - No specific content provided Oils Basis - No specific content provided Oils and Oilseeds Futures Price Spreads - No specific content provided
油脂油料早报-20251225
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 00:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Information - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from December 1 - 20, 2025, decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month, with a 11.66% drop in Peninsular Malaysia, 1.73% in Borneo, 2.12% in Sabah, and 0.75% in Sarawak [1]. 3.2 Production - Country Precipitation - Information about Brazil's soybean precipitation is provided, including observed and forecast precipitation compared to normal, with a total precipitation of 268 mm and a deficit of 110 mm in the 60 - day period ending December 20, 2025, and a 15 - day forecast starting December 21, 2025 [1]. 3.3 Imported Soybean Crushing Profit - Graphs show the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for July and August from 2016 - 2025 [1]. 3.4 Oil Import Profit - Graphs display the import profit of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil for July and August from 2016 - 2025 [1]. 3.5 Spot Prices - Spot prices of palm oil in Guangzhou, soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 18 - 24, 2025, are provided [2]. 3.6 Protein Meal and Oil Basis - Graphs show the basis of soybean meal (January, May, September in Jiangsu), rapeseed meal (January, May, September in Guangdong), soybean oil (January, May, September in Zhangjiagang), palm oil (January, May, September in Guangzhou), and rapeseed oil (January, May, September in East China) for different years and time periods [3][10][12]. 3.7 Oil and Oilseed Futures Spread - Graphs present the seasonal spreads of soybean meal (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), rapeseed meal (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), soybean oil (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), palm oil (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), rapeseed oil (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), soybean - rapeseed meal (January, May, September), soybean - palm oil (January, May, September), and rapeseed - soybean oil (January, May, September) for different years and time periods [10].
油脂油料早报-20251219
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 00:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information, export - sales data, import data, and production - inventory data of major countries in the oilseeds and oils market, as well as price data [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 114,000 tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year to unknown destinations [1] US Export Sales Data - For the week ending November 27, US soybean export sales net increased by 1.106 million tons, down 52% from the previous week and 7% from the four - week average, with net sales of 2.142 million tons to the Chinese mainland; export shipments were 803,500 tons, up 5% from the previous week and down 25% from the four - week average. New sales were 1.2148 million tons for the current market year and 10,000 tons for the next market year [1] - For the week ending November 27, US soybean meal export sales net increased by 436,000 tons, up 189% from the previous week and 112% from the four - week average; export shipments were 367,400 tons, up 9% from the previous week and 22% from the four - week average. New sales were 487,600 tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1] China's Import Data - In November 2025, China's edible oil imports were 1.03 million tons, up 42.9% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 9.03 million tons, up 5.9% year - on - year. Soybean oil imports were 50,000 tons, up 827.2% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 340,000 tons, up 23.8% year - on - year. Palm oil imports were 330,000 tons, up 97.8% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 2.29 million tons, down 7.6% year - on - year. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 170,000 tons, down 16.8% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 1.91 million tons, up 14.5% year - on - year [1] Indonesia's Production and Export Data - In October, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 10% to 2.33 million tons compared to the previous month, despite increased production. Domestic consumption increased by 8.5% to 2.22 million tons. Crude palm oil production was 4.35 million tons, higher than 3.93 million tons in September. The 1 - 10 month crude palm oil production increased by nearly 10%. Palm oil product exports were 2.8 million tons, down about 3% from the previous year [1] Canada's Rapeseed Data - AAFC raised the forecast for Canada's rapeseed ending stocks in the 2025/2026 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons in its December 17 report, higher than 1.597 million tons in the 2024/2025 season. Rapeseed export forecast was raised from 7 million tons in November to 8 million tons, but still 1.3 million tons lower year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed use forecast reached a record high of 12 million tons [1] Price Data - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [1]
油脂油料早报-20251211
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 01:42
Group 1: Report Core Views - The soybean export sales of the United States from November 13th are expected to increase, with the 2025 - 26 annual soybean export sales expected to net increase by 60 - 140 million tons, the 2025 - 26 annual soybean meal export sales expected to net increase by 5 - 45 million tons, and the 2025 - 26 annual soybean oil export sales expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] - The soybean crushing volume in the United States in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons, and the soybean oil production was 2.83 billion pounds, which increased by 18% compared to September 2025 and 11% compared to October 2024 [1] - Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of November reached the highest level in more than six and a half years, with a 13% increase to 2.84 million tons due to increased production and weak export demand [1] - Australia's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to increase to 7.2 million tons, and Canada's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to increase to 21.8 million tons [1] Group 2: Key Data U.S. Data - The U.S. soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons (237 million bushels), the September 2025 crushing volume was 6.15 million short tons (205 million bushels), and the October 2024 crushing volume was 6.47 million short tons (216 million bushels) [1] - The U.S. soybean oil production in October 2025 was 2.83 billion pounds, a 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024 [1] Malaysia Data - Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13% to 2.84 million tons, the November production decreased by 5.3% to 1.94 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 28.13% to 1.21 million tons [1] - From December 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm - oil export volume decreased by 15% according to ITS and 10.31% according to AmSpec [1] Rapeseed Data - Australia's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to be 7.2 million tons, and Canada's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to be 21.8 million tons [1] Spot Price Data | Date | Bean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | | 2025/12/09 | 3000 | 2460 | 8450 | 8570 | 9630 | | 2025/12/10 | 3030 | 2490 | 8500 | 8510 | 9680 | [5]
油脂油料早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents overnight market information on the export sales and shipments of US soybeans and soybean meal, the expected export volumes of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil, along with the spot prices of related products [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending October 9, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 78.64 million tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased 78.5 million tons, down 15% from the previous week and 9% from the four - week average, with next - market - year sales net increasing 0.14 million tons. Export shipments were 69.28 million tons, down 4% from the previous week but up 3% from the four - week average. New sales for the current market year were 84.78 million tons, and 0.14 million tons for the next market year [1]. - For the week ending October 9, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 35.55 million tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased 35.84 million tons, up 6% from the previous week and 517% from the four - week average, while next - market - year sales had a net decrease of 0.29 million tons. Export shipments were 20.42 million tons, down 36% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average. New sales for the current market year were 37.50 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1]. - ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in November would be 4.4 billion tons (down from last week's forecast of 4.71 billion tons), and soybean meal exports would be 2.5 billion tons (down from last week's forecast of 2.68 billion tons) [1]. - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from November 1 - 25 decreased 18.8% compared to the same period last month, with exports of 1,041,935 tons. AmSpec Agri data showed a 16.4% decrease, with exports of 987,978 tons compared to the same period in October [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products (including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from November 19 - 25, 2025 were presented in a table [2].
Mhy20251117油脂晚评:豆油为何相对坚挺?油粕比进一步走强
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 10:42
Market Overview - The USDA's November supply and demand report indicates that the expected soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is 81.1 million acres, with a harvest area of 80.3 million acres and a yield of 53 bushels per acre, leading to an estimated production of 4.253 billion bushels, a decrease from the previous month's estimate of 4.301 billion bushels [1] - NOPA's monthly report predicts that U.S. soybean processing in October will reach 209.522 million bushels, a 5.9% increase from September and a 4.8% increase from October 2024, potentially setting a new monthly record [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of November are reported to have decreased significantly, with AmSpec reporting a 10% drop and SGS reporting a 44.9% decrease compared to the previous month [2][3] Production and Export Forecasts - Industry analyst Thomas Mielke forecasts Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 to be 49 million tons, slightly down from 49.4 million tons in 2025, while Malaysia's production is expected to decrease from 19.86 million tons in 2025 to 19.5 million tons in 2026 [3] - Dorab Mistry anticipates a global palm oil production increase of 1.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with total vegetable oil supply rising by 4.2 million tons and demand increasing by 6 million tons [3] - Canada's canola seed exports have decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons as of November 9, with a year-on-year decline of 54.10% [3] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Malaysia has set the reference price for palm oil at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton for December, with an export tax rate of 10% [3] - The market for soybean oil remains strong, driven by the performance of canola oil and high import costs, which support soybean oil prices despite a pullback in soybean prices [6]