油脂油料早报 合1+ 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/25 隔夜市场信息： 100 ■点资讯 MPOA:马来西亚12月1-20日毛棕榈油产量环比下降7.44% ● MPOA公布的数据显示，马来西亚12月1-20日毛棕榈油产量较上月同期下降7.44%。其中，马来半岛产量下降 11.66%，婆罗洲产量下降1.73%，沙巴产量减少2.12%，沙捞越产量减少0.75%。 产 国 降 水 情 况 Brazil Soybeans Precipitation Brazil Soybeans Precipitation Observed Precipitation Compared to Normal (mm) Forecast Precipitation Compared to Normal (mm) Production-Weighted Area Average Production-Weighted Area Average 60 days ending 20 December 2025 15-Day Forecast Beginning 21 December 2025 250 Accumulated Prec ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information, export - sales data, import data, and production - inventory data of major countries in the oilseeds and oils market, as well as price data [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 114,000 tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year to unknown destinations [1] US Export Sales Data - For the week ending November 27, US soybean export sales net increased by 1.106 million tons, down 52% from the previous week and 7% from the four - week average, with net sales of 2.142 million tons to the Chinese mainland; export shipments were 803,500 tons, up 5% from the previous week and down 25% from the four - week average. New sales were 1.2148 million tons for the current market year and 10,000 tons for the next market year [1] - For the week ending November 27, US soybean meal export sales net increased by 436,000 tons, up 189% from the previous week and 112% from the four - week average; export shipments were 367,400 tons, up 9% from the previous week and 22% from the four - week average. New sales were 487,600 tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1] China's Import Data - In November 2025, China's edible oil imports were 1.03 million tons, up 42.9% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 9.03 million tons, up 5.9% year - on - year. Soybean oil imports were 50,000 tons, up 827.2% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 340,000 tons, up 23.8% year - on - year. Palm oil imports were 330,000 tons, up 97.8% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 2.29 million tons, down 7.6% year - on - year. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 170,000 tons, down 16.8% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to November were 1.91 million tons, up 14.5% year - on - year [1] Indonesia's Production and Export Data - In October, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 10% to 2.33 million tons compared to the previous month, despite increased production. Domestic consumption increased by 8.5% to 2.22 million tons. Crude palm oil production was 4.35 million tons, higher than 3.93 million tons in September. The 1 - 10 month crude palm oil production increased by nearly 10%. Palm oil product exports were 2.8 million tons, down about 3% from the previous year [1] Canada's Rapeseed Data - AAFC raised the forecast for Canada's rapeseed ending stocks in the 2025/2026 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons in its December 17 report, higher than 1.597 million tons in the 2024/2025 season. Rapeseed export forecast was raised from 7 million tons in November to 8 million tons, but still 1.3 million tons lower year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed use forecast reached a record high of 12 million tons [1] Price Data - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 12 to December 18, 2025 [1]

Group 1: Report Core Views - The soybean export sales of the United States from November 13th are expected to increase, with the 2025 - 26 annual soybean export sales expected to net increase by 60 - 140 million tons, the 2025 - 26 annual soybean meal export sales expected to net increase by 5 - 45 million tons, and the 2025 - 26 annual soybean oil export sales expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] - The soybean crushing volume in the United States in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons, and the soybean oil production was 2.83 billion pounds, which increased by 18% compared to September 2025 and 11% compared to October 2024 [1] - Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of November reached the highest level in more than six and a half years, with a 13% increase to 2.84 million tons due to increased production and weak export demand [1] - Australia's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to increase to 7.2 million tons, and Canada's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to increase to 21.8 million tons [1] Group 2: Key Data U.S. Data - The U.S. soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons (237 million bushels), the September 2025 crushing volume was 6.15 million short tons (205 million bushels), and the October 2024 crushing volume was 6.47 million short tons (216 million bushels) [1] - The U.S. soybean oil production in October 2025 was 2.83 billion pounds, a 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024 [1] Malaysia Data - Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13% to 2.84 million tons, the November production decreased by 5.3% to 1.94 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 28.13% to 1.21 million tons [1] - From December 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm - oil export volume decreased by 15% according to ITS and 10.31% according to AmSpec [1] Rapeseed Data - Australia's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to be 7.2 million tons, and Canada's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to be 21.8 million tons [1] Spot Price Data | Date | Bean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | | 2025/12/09 | 3000 | 2460 | 8450 | 8570 | 9630 | | 2025/12/10 | 3030 | 2490 | 8500 | 8510 | 9680 | [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents overnight market information on the export sales and shipments of US soybeans and soybean meal, the expected export volumes of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil, along with the spot prices of related products [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending October 9, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 78.64 million tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased 78.5 million tons, down 15% from the previous week and 9% from the four - week average, with next - market - year sales net increasing 0.14 million tons. Export shipments were 69.28 million tons, down 4% from the previous week but up 3% from the four - week average. New sales for the current market year were 84.78 million tons, and 0.14 million tons for the next market year [1]. - For the week ending October 9, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 35.55 million tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased 35.84 million tons, up 6% from the previous week and 517% from the four - week average, while next - market - year sales had a net decrease of 0.29 million tons. Export shipments were 20.42 million tons, down 36% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average. New sales for the current market year were 37.50 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1]. - ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in November would be 4.4 billion tons (down from last week's forecast of 4.71 billion tons), and soybean meal exports would be 2.5 billion tons (down from last week's forecast of 2.68 billion tons) [1]. - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from November 1 - 25 decreased 18.8% compared to the same period last month, with exports of 1,041,935 tons. AmSpec Agri data showed a 16.4% decrease, with exports of 987,978 tons compared to the same period in October [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products (including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from November 19 - 25, 2025 were presented in a table [2].

Market Overview - The USDA's November supply and demand report indicates that the expected soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is 81.1 million acres, with a harvest area of 80.3 million acres and a yield of 53 bushels per acre, leading to an estimated production of 4.253 billion bushels, a decrease from the previous month's estimate of 4.301 billion bushels [1] - NOPA's monthly report predicts that U.S. soybean processing in October will reach 209.522 million bushels, a 5.9% increase from September and a 4.8% increase from October 2024, potentially setting a new monthly record [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of November are reported to have decreased significantly, with AmSpec reporting a 10% drop and SGS reporting a 44.9% decrease compared to the previous month [2][3] Production and Export Forecasts - Industry analyst Thomas Mielke forecasts Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 to be 49 million tons, slightly down from 49.4 million tons in 2025, while Malaysia's production is expected to decrease from 19.86 million tons in 2025 to 19.5 million tons in 2026 [3] - Dorab Mistry anticipates a global palm oil production increase of 1.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with total vegetable oil supply rising by 4.2 million tons and demand increasing by 6 million tons [3] - Canada's canola seed exports have decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons as of November 9, with a year-on-year decline of 54.10% [3] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Malaysia has set the reference price for palm oil at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton for December, with an export tax rate of 10% [3] - The market for soybean oil remains strong, driven by the performance of canola oil and high import costs, which support soybean oil prices despite a pullback in soybean prices [6]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest information on the supply and demand of major oilseeds and oils in the 2025/26 period, including data on soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, as well as the expected trend of U.S. soybean crushing volume and inventory [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual U.S. Soybean Information - The estimated production for the 2025/26 U.S. soybean season is 4.253 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 4.301 billion bushels - The estimated planting area is 81.1 million acres, the same as the September estimate - The estimated harvested area is 80.3 million acres, consistent with the September estimate - The estimated yield per acre is 53 bushels, down from the September estimate of 53.5 bushels - The estimated export volume is 1.635 billion bushels, down from the September estimate of 1.685 billion bushels - The estimated ending stocks are 290 million bushels, down from the September estimate of 300 million bushels [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Soybean Information - Brazil's estimated soybean production is 175 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 112.5 million tons, up from the September estimate of 112 million tons - Argentina's estimated soybean production is 48.5 million tons, the same as the September estimate, and the estimated export volume is 8.25 million tons, up from the September estimate of 6 million tons - China's estimated soybean imports are 112 million tons, the same as the September estimate - Global estimated soybean production is 421.75 million tons, down from the September estimate of 425.87 million tons, and the estimated ending stocks are 121.99 million tons, down from the September estimate of 123.99 million tons [1] U.S. October Soybean Crushing Volume - The estimated U.S. soybean crushing volume in October is 209.522 million bushels, an increase of 5.9% from September's 197.863 million bushels and 4.8% from October 2024's 199.943 million bushels, setting a new record high [1] U.S. October Soybean Oil Inventory - The estimated U.S. soybean oil inventory in October is 1.257 billion pounds, an increase of 1.1% from the end - of - September inventory of 1.243 billion pounds and 17.0% from October 2024's 1.074 billion pounds [1] 2025/26 Annual Global Rapeseed Information - Global estimated rapeseed production is 92.273 million tons, an increase of 6.274 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 11.336 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed oil production is 35.009 million tons, an increase of 0.873 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 3.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons year - on - year - Global estimated rapeseed meal production is 50.005 million tons, an increase of 0.949 million tons year - on - year, and the estimated ending stocks are 1.541 million tons, an increase of 0.153 million tons year - on - year - Canada's estimated rapeseed export volume is 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.631 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed oil export volume is 3.375 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons year - on - year; the estimated rapeseed meal export volume is 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.299 million tons year - on - year [1] Malaysia Palm Oil Export - Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from November 1 - 15 is 728,995 tons, a decrease of 15.5% compared to the same period last month [1] Indonesia Palm Oil Production - Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to increase by 3 - 4%, lower than this year's estimated growth rate of 4 - 7%, and the 2025 palm oil export is expected to increase by 6 - 7% [1] Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 10 - 14, 2025 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. After short - term consolidation, there is a need to rebound to 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit. However, beware of the risk of a technical decline due to concerns about slow exports and high seasonal production, with a possible second dip to 4,000 ringgit for support [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in an oscillatory rebound. Driven by the continuous rebound of soybean and rapeseed oils, it may follow the upward trend and test the annual - line resistance at 8,900 yuan, and may briefly break through to fill the gap around 8,950 yuan. But it may also follow the decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan if Malaysian palm oil has a second dip to 4,000 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil: Due to the swelling of soybean meal warehouses, the recent factory operating rate has decreased, resulting in reduced soybean oil output and inventory. The recent rebound of soybean oil and the "buy - on - rising" psychology of some traders have boosted the futures market. However, the limited fluctuations of international related varieties have restricted the increase of Dalian soybean oil. The upper pressure of the CBOT soybean oil January contract is around 8,350 yuan on the daily upper - track. If the USDA monthly report fails to boost CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, CBOT soybeans may回调, dragging down Dalian soybean oil [4]. Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - Futures: Although China has made moderate purchases of US soybeans, the continuous poor crushing profit of oil mills has led to less than 50% of the ship - buying progress from December to February. The low crushing profit provides bottom support for prices, but the continuous increase of short positions by COFCO restricts the upward space. It is expected that Dalian soybean meal will remain oscillating in the range of 3,030 - 3,070 yuan in the short term [13]. - Spot: The fixed - price of oil mills remains stable, and the near - month basis has been partially reduced by 10 yuan. The news of Cofco's reserve rotation has affected market sentiment, and the downstream purchasing rhythm is slow. Some make moderate replenishments before the release of the US agricultural report. The short - term spot price is expected to be sorted out in the range of 3,000 - 3,250 yuan/ton [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - Fat Price and Spread - **Month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. have different price changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is - 84 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 18 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 532 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 70 yuan [5]. - **Palm oil prices**: Palm oil 01 is 8,744 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.3%, BMD palm oil main contract is 4,123 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.34%, etc [5]. - **Soybean oil prices**: Soybean oil 01 is 8,288 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.16%, CBOT soybean oil main contract is 51.04 cents/pound with an increase of 1.01%, etc [9]. Oilseed Price and Spread - **Futures prices**: For example, the closing price of bean粕01 is 3,059 with an increase of 5 and a rise - rate of 0.16%, and the closing price of菜粕01 is 2,494 with a decrease of 6 and a decline - rate of - 0.24% [14]. - **Price spreads**: M01 - 05 is 218 with a daily decrease of 16, RM01 - 05 is 79 with a daily decrease of 20, etc [15].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed significant gains on November 6, with the main soybean futures rising nearly 2% [1] - The main contracts for various oilseed products experienced mixed performance, with some increasing while others, like peanuts, saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Soybean oil futures opened at 8138.00 and closed at 8120.00, while palm oil opened at 8582.00 and closed at 8618.00 [2] - The main contracts for canola meal and soybean meal also showed upward trends, with canola meal rising to 2547.00 and soybean meal to 3073.00 [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of November 5, the number of warehouse receipts for canola oil decreased by 702 to 8738, while palm oil receipts increased by 650 to 650 [3] - Soybean meal receipts decreased by 210 to 42122, and soybean oil receipts decreased by 200 to 27444 [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis for canola oil was reported at 302, with a basis rate of 3.10%, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Other products like soybean and palm oil also showed positive basis values, reflecting a similar trend in the market [4]

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils showed a positive trend on November 3, with the main contract for rapeseed meal rising over 4% [1] - The main contracts for palm oil and soybean meal also experienced increases, while soybean oil saw a slight decline [1] Price Movements - Rapeseed meal main contract rose by 4.14% to 2489.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil main contract increased by 1.41% to 8676.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal main contract went up by 1.60% to 3053.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil main contract decreased by 0.56% to 8106.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Data - As of October 31, the warehouse receipts for soybean oil remained stable at 27,644 lots - The warehouse receipts for soybean one increased by 48 lots to 7,238 lots - The warehouse receipts for soybean meal remained unchanged at 42,332 lots [3] Basis Data - The phenomenon of "backwardation" was observed in several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices - For example, the basis for rapeseed oil was 284 CNY with a basis rate of 2.91% - The basis for rapeseed meal was 103 CNY with a basis rate of 4.13% [3]

Core Insights - The domestic oilseed and oil futures market showed mixed performance on September 5, with canola and palm oil prices rising over 1% while soybean meal experienced a slight decline [1][2] Price Movements - Canola futures rose by 1.57% to 5225.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures increased by 1.34% to 9502.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal futures decreased by 0.10% to 3060.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures rose by 0.84% to 8418.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on September 5 were as follows: - Soybean oil: Opened at 8340.00 CNY, closed at 8348.00 CNY - Palm oil: Opened at 9382.00 CNY, closed at 9376.00 CNY - Canola oil: Opened at 9725.00 CNY, closed at 9713.00 CNY - Soybean meal: Opened at 3043.00 CNY, closed at 3063.00 CNY - Canola meal: Opened at 2514.00 CNY, closed at 2524.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of September 4, warehouse receipts showed the following changes: - Soybean oil: Increased by 1284 contracts to 16344 contracts - Palm oil: Increased by 200 contracts to 639 contracts - Canola oil: Increased by 235 contracts to 6879 contracts - Soybean meal: Increased by 3750 contracts to 19375 contracts - Canola meal: Decreased by 210 contracts to 4846 contracts [3] Basis Data - The basis data as of September 4 indicated a phenomenon of "inverted futures" for several contracts, where spot prices exceeded futures prices: - Canola oil: Spot price 9858.33 CNY, futures price 9713 CNY, basis 145 CNY - Canola meal: Spot price 2631.67 CNY, futures price 2524 CNY, basis 107 CNY - Palm oil: Spot price 9400 CNY, futures price 9376 CNY, basis 24 CNY - Soybean one: Spot price 4305 CNY, futures price 3966 CNY, basis 339 CNY - Soybean meal: Spot price 3084 CNY, futures price 3063 CNY, basis 21 CNY - Soybean oil: Spot price 8428 CNY, futures price 8348 CNY, basis 80 CNY [4]