油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/10 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 农业部长：B50生物柴油计划将额外产生530万吨毛棕榈油需求 印尼农业部长称，该国的B50生物柴油计划将额外产生530万吨毛棕榈油需求。 USDA报告前瞻：截至10月2日当周美国2025/26年度大豆出口销售料净增60-160万吨 美国农业部（USDA）正常于北京时间每周四20:30公布周度出口销售报告。由于美国联邦政府停摆，美国农业部暂 停了该报告的发布，尽管美国农业部的一份规划文件称，其海外农业服务局将继续"处理出口销售信息"。 在以往的政府停摆事件中，缺失的出口销售数据在联邦资金恢复后公布。 一项针对行业分析师的调査结果显示，截至10月2日当周，美国2025/26年度大豆出口销售料净增60-160万吨。美国 豆粕出口销售料净增15-35万吨。其中2024/25年度料净增0吨，2025/26年度料净增15-35万吨。美国豆油出口销售料净 增0-2.5万吨。其中2024/25年度料净增0吨，2025/26年度料净增0-2.5万吨。 大豆市场年度始于9月1日，豆粕和豆油始于10月1日。 StoneX预计巴西2026年豆油需求增 ...

| 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | 2025/09/24 | 2880 | 2490 | 8330 | 9050 | 10120 | | 2025/09/25 | 2890 | 2520 | 8330 | 9140 | 10330 | | 2025/09/26 | 2880 | 2500 | 8430 | 9160 | 10400 | | 2025/09/29 | 2880 | 2500 | 8390 | 9150 | 10340 | | 2025/09/30 | 2890 | 2520 | 8340 | 9150 | 10260 | | 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： | | | | | | | 油 脂 基 差 ： | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： | | | | | | | 免责声明: | 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公 ...

| 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/26 | | --- | | 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： | | 9月18日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增72.45万吨，符合预期 | | 9月18日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增72.45万吨，市场预估为净增60-160万吨。当周，美国下一年 | | 度大豆出口销售净增0万吨。 | | 当周，美国大豆出口装船51.24万吨。 | | 9月18日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增22.62万吨，符合预期 | | 9月18日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净增7.96万吨，较之前一周增加156%，较前四周均值增加196%。 | | 市场预估为净增0-5万吨。当周，美国下一年度豆粕出口销售净增14.66万吨。市场预估为净增15-40万吨。 | | 当周，美国豆粕出口装船22.85万吨。较之前一周减少3%，较前四周均值减少8%。 | | 当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕新销售10.69万吨，下一市场年度豆粕新销售23.5万吨。 | | 阿根廷大豆出口创七年高位，受出口税暂停刺激 | | 阿根廷大豆出口创下至少七年新高。政府数据显示，在该国暂停谷物出口税近三天后，2024/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, international supply - demand, trading volume, macro news, and fund flows. It details the price movements of various commodities, the impact of weather on crops, international trade policies, and macro - economic events that may influence the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 & 02 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented. For example, BMD palm oil 12 closed at 4424.00 with a - 0.23% decline [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices and basis for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For instance, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China has a spot price of 9450 and a basis of 100 [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes for the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are provided. The US dollar index is at 97.64 with a 0.29% increase [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions**: In the US, soybean - producing states will have generally high temperatures and above - median precipitation from September 24 - 28. The Midwest will have continuous showers, and the west may experience heavy rain, which may affect crop maturity and harvest [3][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysia has raised its October CPO reference price to 4268.68 ringgit/ton, keeping the export tariff at 10%. As of September 16, CBOT soybean long - positions increased by 13,986 to 167,351. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 0.7%, higher than previous years. Argentina's 2025/26 grain exports may reach a record 105.1 million tons [7][8]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, risking a government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the last two Fed meetings [16]. - **Domestic News**: On September 19, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1128, up 43 points. The PBOC conducted 3543 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 1243 billion yuan on that day and 5623 billion yuan for the week [18]. 05 Fund Flows On September 19, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.463 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 5.599 billion yuan, including 250 million yuan in agricultural products, 1.083 billion yuan in chemicals, 1.118 billion yuan in black - series, and 3.149 billion yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 13.884 billion yuan, and bond futures had a net outflow of 188 million yuan [21]. 06 Trading Volume - On September 19, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 5500 tons, a 74% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 99,100 tons, an increase of 41,400 tons from the previous day [13]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills from September 13 - 19 was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. It is expected to decrease slightly in the 39th week [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil exported 9,338,292.80 tons of soybeans in August 2025, a 16% year - on - year increase, with a daily average export volume of 444,680.61 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production in August 2025 increased by 2.07% compared to the previous month, with production in the Malay Peninsula down 1.26% and in East Malaysia up 7.56% (Sabah up 7.36% and Sarawak up 8.14%) [1]. - Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 5.9 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous forecast, due to good weather conditions [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's soybean export data in August 2025 shows significant year - on - year growth [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in August 2025 has a mixed performance in different regions [1]. - Australia's rapeseed production is expected to increase due to favorable weather [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 29 to September 4, 2025, are presented [2]. Protein Meal Basis No detailed information provided. Oil Basis No detailed information provided. Oil and Oilseed Futures Spreads No detailed information provided. Main Producer Precipitation Conditions No detailed information provided. Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit No detailed information provided. Oil Import Profit No detailed information provided.

Core Insights - Indonesia is experiencing a wave of protests, but the stock market is at a near five-year high, indicating underlying economic resilience despite short-term challenges such as currency depreciation and weak consumer demand [1][4]. Economic Challenges - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by 0.17% in the past month and 6.42% over the past year, with the current exchange rate at 16,414.5 IDR per USD [2]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight decrease of 0.08% month-on-month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.31%, reflecting weakened consumer purchasing power [2]. - Domestic travel during the Ramadan period saw a decrease of approximately 47 million people compared to 2024, indicating reduced consumer spending [2]. Trade Performance - Indonesia's imports fell by 5.86% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since May 2024, while the country maintained a trade surplus of $4.17 billion for 63 consecutive months, driven by coal, palm oil, and steel exports [3]. - The trade outlook may face uncertainties due to potential impacts from the US-Indonesia tariff agreement and declining coal prices [3]. Stock Market Dynamics - The Jakarta Composite Index closed at 7,885.86 points on September 3, reflecting a 20.96% increase over the past six months, indicating strong market performance despite recent protests [4]. - Economic fundamentals, proactive monetary policy, and valuation recovery are driving the stock market's upward trend [4]. - The stock market is considered undervalued based on the original Buffett indicator, with an expected annual return of +10.9% over the next eight years [5]. Long-term Outlook - Indonesia's large market size and significant role in global commodity trade enhance its resilience against external risks, with food self-sufficiency being a highlight of the economy this year [6]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from ongoing upgrades, supported by demographic advantages and deepening cooperation with major economies like China [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Indonesia's significant growth in palm oil exports, with a total export volume of 13.64 million tons from January to July, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.95%, and an export value of $14.02 billion, up 32.92% year-on-year [1] - Indonesia is the world's largest palm oil exporter, and there are expectations for the acceleration of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the European Union, which could greatly enhance the export trade of palm oil and other major products [1] - However, there are concerns that domestic biodiesel policies and government price controls may lead to a decline in palm oil product exports [1] Group 2 - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association projects that the country's crude palm oil production will reach 52 million tons in 2024, with domestic consumption at 23.8 million tons, and a slight increase in production to 53.6 million tons this year, while exports are expected to decrease to 27.5 million tons [1] - Driven by coal, crude palm oil, refined palm oil, and steel, Indonesia's non-oil and gas export value reached $152.2 billion from January to July, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, with a trade surplus of $4.17 billion in July, maintaining a surplus for 63 consecutive months [1] - In August, the S&P Global Indonesia Manufacturing PMI index rose from 49.2 in July to 51.5, the highest level since March, indicating improved international market confidence with the fastest growth in overseas demand since September 2023 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - AgResource forecasts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 176.5 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, with a 2% growth in planting area to 48.7 million hectares [1]. - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, with varying growth rates in different regions [1]. - The US EPA approved 63, rejected 28, and partially approved 77 applications from small refineries for biofuel exemptions, with a total exemption quota of about 5.34 billion RINS, and only 13 pending applications remain [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to increase, and planting usually starts around September [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in early - August increased compared to the previous month [1]. - The US EPA dealt with small refinery biofuel exemption applications, and will soon collect public opinions on large refineries' compensation for exemption quotas [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from August 18 - 22 are presented, showing price fluctuations during this period [1].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia plans to increase crude palm oil (CPO) production from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 in response to rising demand in food, biofuels, and oleochemical sectors [1] Group 1: Production Goals and Challenges - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) indicates that due to aging plantations, CPO and palm kernel oil (PKO) production is expected to see a modest increase of 1.7% to 53.6 million tons by 2025 [1] - Aging palm oil plantations are causing stagnation in CPO production growth, which is gradually pushing prices higher [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent increases in palm oil prices have drawn market attention, with the Indonesian President announcing a crackdown on illegal resource extraction [1] - Government investigations have revealed the seizure of 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations, contributing to supply tightening and concerns over export restrictions, which support the strengthening of international palm oil prices [1]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed crop output is expected to be 5.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, with the forecast range between 5.4 - 6.3 million tons. The near - normal temperatures by October will support crop growth, but the cooling forecast from August 25 - 31 is worth attention due to possible light frost in some areas [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% compared to the same period last month, reaching 929,051 tons [1] - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil annual output from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 to meet the growing demand. To achieve this goal, BPDP has implemented human resource improvement plans and the government has launched a plantation revival plan [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 14 - 20, 2025 are provided, showing price fluctuations during this period [1][8]