Group 1: Hot News - "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the internal division in the Fed has cast a shadow over the rate - cut path, with such a degree of division having few precedents in Fed Chair Powell's nearly eight - year tenure [2] - China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice - Chairman Li Ming stated that on the investment side, efforts will be made to continuously improve the market ecosystem for long - term investment, promote the implementation of the plan to boost the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, strengthen strategic force reserves and market - stabilizing mechanism construction, enhance the internal stability of the capital market, and prevent sharp market fluctuations [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement on the 12th, clarifying that "all the rumors on the Internet are false information" and vowing to fight against malicious short - selling of the photovoltaic industry [2] - Malaysian trade and industry officials said Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons [2] - Citi expects copper prices to continue to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 ($14,000 per ton in a bullish scenario), and to trade at around $11,000 per ton for the rest of this year [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are low - sulfur fuel oil, soda ash, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a night - session increase of 3.32%, precious metals 29.95%, oilseeds 9.49%, non - ferrous metals and soft commodities 2.66% and 23.18% respectively, coal, coke, and steel ore 12.44%, energy 2.91%, chemicals 10.95%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.90% [3] Group 4: Asset Performance Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.07%, a monthly increase of 1.15%, and a yearly increase of 19.34%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 0.32%, a monthly increase of 1.09%, and a yearly increase of 13.39%; the CSI 300 had a daily decline of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.11%, and a yearly increase of 18.07%; the CSI 500 had a daily decline of 0.66%, a monthly decline of 1.20%, and a yearly increase of 26.50%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly increase of 0.16%, and a yearly increase of 16.48%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly increase of 3.92%, and a yearly increase of 34.21%; the German DAX had a daily increase of 1.22%, a monthly increase of 1.77%, and a yearly increase of 22.46%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 0.43%, a monthly decline of 2.57%, and a yearly increase of 28.00%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.12%, a monthly increase of 2.00%, and a yearly increase of 21.27% [5] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.02%, a monthly decline of 0.15%, and a yearly decline of 0.37%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%, a monthly decline of 0.09%, and a yearly decline of 0.54%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.01%, a monthly decline of 0.07%, and a yearly decline of 0.49% [5] Commodity - The CRB Commodity Index had a daily decline of 1.43%, a monthly increase of 0.04%, and a yearly increase of 2.00%; WTI crude oil had a daily decline of 4.10%, a monthly decline of 3.83%, and a yearly decline of 18.60%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 1.68%, a monthly increase of 4.79%, and a yearly increase of 59.85%; LME copper had a daily increase of 0.65%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, and a yearly increase of 24.09%; the Wind Commodity Index had a daily increase of 0.37%, a monthly increase of 1.50%, and a yearly increase of 32.59% [5] Other - The US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.00%, a monthly decline of 0.25%, and a yearly decline of 8.30%; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily change of 0.00%, a monthly decline of 0.92%, and a yearly decline of 0.40% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian palm oil industry has shown strong growth in the first eight months of the year, with both production and export values increasing significantly [1] Production and Export Performance - From January to August, the cumulative production of crude palm oil and palm kernel oil reached 39.04 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 13% compared to 34.52 million tons in the same period last year [1] - The growth in production is attributed to improved plantation efficiency, strong demand for biodiesel, and robust export performance [1] Domestic Consumption and Export Trends - In August, domestic palm oil consumption rose to 2.1 million tons, with the energy sector making a significant contribution; biodiesel consumption increased by 5.71% year-on-year, reaching 1.11 million tons [1] - Although palm oil exports in August slightly decreased by 1.81% from July to 3.47 million tons, the export value increased by 3.5% month-on-month to $3.82 billion, with an average export price of $1,204 per ton [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August, Indonesia's palm oil export value reached $24.78 billion, a substantial year-on-year increase of nearly 43% [1] Future Outlook - GAPKI anticipates that with the continued recovery in global demand and sustained high prices, the Indonesian palm oil industry is expected to maintain a steady growth momentum, with annual export value potentially exceeding $30 billion [1]

Core Insights - The futures market shows a balanced distribution of bullish and bearish forces, with 43 contracts rising and 34 contracts falling, indicating a diverse allocation of funds and trading activities across different commodities [2] Futures Market Overview - The main contracts with the highest gains include the shipping index (European line) at 2512 (+5.10%), the CSI 2512 (+2.08%), and Shanghai gold 2512 (+2.02%), significantly influenced by supply and demand dynamics [5] - The most significant inflows of funds were seen in the CSI 500 2512 (2.453 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.412 billion), and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 2512 (1.179 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [7] - Conversely, the largest outflows were from coking coal 2601 (-735 million), Shanghai silver 2512 (-288 million), and styrene 2511 (-244 million), suggesting notable capital withdrawal from these commodities [7] Position Changes - Significant increases in open interest were observed in timber 2601 (+9.40%), shipping index (European line) 2512 (+8.94%), and asphalt 2601 (+8.54%), indicating potential new capital inflows and high trading activity [10] - Conversely, notable decreases in open interest were recorded in apple 2601 (-8.09%), Shanghai lead 2511 (-12.15%), and Shanghai tin 2511 (-13.31%), suggesting potential capital withdrawal and warranting attention for future performance [10] Commodity-Specific Insights - BHP reported a total iron ore production of 70.246 million tons for Q3 2025, a decrease of 9.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.9% year-on-year, with total sales of 70.592 million tons, reflecting similar trends [11] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a total import quota of 257 million tons for non-state trade crude oil in 2026, outlining the application conditions and procedures [12] - South32 reported a significant increase in manganese ore sales to 854,000 wet tons for Q3 2025, up 83% quarter-on-quarter, driven by successful operational recovery plans [16] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) forecasts crude palm oil prices to stabilize above 4,400 ringgit per ton in 2026, supported by biodiesel demand and uncertainties in export inventories [16] Market Dynamics - The natural rubber market is experiencing a short-term recovery in sentiment, with prices rising by 1.92% to 15,150 yuan per ton, despite supply pressures and weak demand [23] - The shipping index (European line) saw a significant rise of 5.10%, with market expectations for price increases due to supply pressures and demand dynamics [25] - The glass market is facing downward pressure, with prices dropping by 1.90% to 1,087 yuan per ton, driven by high inventory levels and weak demand [27]

Core Insights - The Indonesian government is considering implementing a Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) policy for palm oil companies, requiring them to prioritize domestic crude palm oil supply before exporting the remainder to support the upcoming B50 biodiesel program [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) - The DMO policy mandates that companies must meet domestic market demand before exporting products, which will redirect some crude palm oil originally intended for export to the domestic market [1] - The B50 biodiesel plan involves a blend of 50% palm oil-based biodiesel and 50% petro-diesel, with the current mandatory blending ratio being 40% (B40) [1] - The implementation of B50 is expected to require 19 million tons of crude palm oil, an increase of approximately 4 million tons compared to the B40 phase, while palm oil exports will be reduced by 5.3 million tons [1] Group 2: B50 Biodiesel Program - The Indonesian government has completed trials for the application of B50 in various transportation modes, including trains, ships, heavy equipment, and vehicles [1] - The official rollout of the B50 program is planned for the second half of 2026, pending confirmation of its cleanliness and environmental benefits [1] Group 3: Additional Measures - In addition to the DMO, the government is evaluating two other measures to ensure the supply of biodiesel raw materials: strengthening oil palm cultivation management and establishing new oil palm plantations [2]

Report Overview - No industry investment rating is provided [1] - The core view of the report is to present overnight market information, price data, and some forecasts in the oilseeds and fats industry [1] Overnight Market Information - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan will generate an additional demand of 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil [1] - As of the week ending October 2, 2025, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 60 - 1.6 million tons, the net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be 15 - 35 thousand tons, and the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be 0 - 25 thousand tons [1] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's biodiesel demand will increase by 6.3% in 2026 to 10.5 billion liters, and the consumption of soybean oil, the main raw material for biodiesel production, will increase by 6.3% to 8.4 million tons [1] Price Data - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 25 to October 9, 2025 [2] Other Information - The report also mentions the precipitation in major producing countries, the import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, the import profit of oils, the protein meal basis, the oils basis, and the price spread of oils and oilseeds, but no specific data is provided [1][3][5][7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents the latest data on the production, export, and prices of major oilseeds and oils, including soybeans, rapeseed, and palm oil, which can help investors understand the current market situation and trends [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **Brazilian Soybean Planting**: As of the week ending October 4, 2025, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 8.2%, up from 3.5% the previous week, compared to 5.1% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 9.4% [1]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection**: For the week ending October 2, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 768,117 tons, at the high end of the market's estimated range of 600,000 - 800,000 tons. The previous week's volume was revised to 610,633 tons. Since the start of the market year on September 1, the cumulative export inspection volume is 3,030,898 tons, compared to 3,555,417 tons in the same period last year [1]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Export**: For the week ending September 28, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 68.6% to 88,200 tons from 52,300 tons the previous week. From August 1 to September 28, 2025, the export volume was 715,600 tons, a 59.4% decrease from the same period last year. As of September 28, the commercial inventory was 1,122,500 tons [1]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September 1 - 30, 2025, crude palm oil production decreased by 2.35% compared to the previous month. Shipments data from SGS showed a 13.41% month - on - month decrease in September exports to 1,013,140 tons, while ITS reported a 9.6% increase to 1,558,247 tons [1]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in October 2025 at $963.61 per ton, up from $954.71 in September. The export tax will remain at $124 per ton, and a 10% special tax is also levied [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 24 to September 30, 2025 [4].

Group 1: Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales net increase was 72.45 million tons in the week ended September 18, in line with expectations. The current - market - year sales net increase was 72.45 million tons, and the next - year sales net increase was 0 tons. The export shipment was 51.24 million tons [1] - US soybean meal export sales net increase was 22.62 million tons in the week ended September 18, in line with expectations. The current - market - year sales net increase was 7.96 million tons, up 156% from the previous week and 196% from the four - week average. The next - year sales net increase was 14.66 million tons. The export shipment was 22.85 million tons, down 3% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average. The current - market - year new sales were 10.69 million tons, and the next - market - year new sales were 23.5 million tons [1] - Argentina's soybean exports reached a seven - year high due to the suspension of export taxes. The 2024/25 export sales declarations exceeded 1,010 million tons, the highest since 2017/18 [1] - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's September 1 - 20 crude palm oil production decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month. The yield in the Malay Peninsula declined by 8.23%, while that in East Malaysia increased by 2.64%, with Sabah up 0.73% and Sarawak up 7.63% [1] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's September 1 - 25 palm oil exports increased by 11.3% month - on - month, reaching 1,185,422 tons [1] - ITS reported that Malaysia's September 1 - 25 palm oil exports increased by 12.9% month - on - month, reaching 1,288,462 tons [1] - Argentina re - imposed export withholding taxes on grains, beef, and poultry after reaching a $7 billion sales cap [1] - India purchased 30 million tons of soybean oil from Argentina from Tuesday to Wednesday, a record - high single - purchase volume. The oil will be delivered from October to March next year at a price of $1100 - 1120 per ton (CIF) [1] - The EU Commission raised the EU's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 1,990 million tons from 1,880 million tons, while keeping the import forecast at 580 million tons [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of various agricultural products in different regions from September 19 - 25, 2025 are presented, including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, international supply - demand, trading volume, macro news, and fund flows. It details the price movements of various commodities, the impact of weather on crops, international trade policies, and macro - economic events that may influence the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 & 02 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented. For example, BMD palm oil 12 closed at 4424.00 with a - 0.23% decline [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices and basis for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For instance, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China has a spot price of 9450 and a basis of 100 [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes for the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are provided. The US dollar index is at 97.64 with a 0.29% increase [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions**: In the US, soybean - producing states will have generally high temperatures and above - median precipitation from September 24 - 28. The Midwest will have continuous showers, and the west may experience heavy rain, which may affect crop maturity and harvest [3][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysia has raised its October CPO reference price to 4268.68 ringgit/ton, keeping the export tariff at 10%. As of September 16, CBOT soybean long - positions increased by 13,986 to 167,351. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 0.7%, higher than previous years. Argentina's 2025/26 grain exports may reach a record 105.1 million tons [7][8]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, risking a government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the last two Fed meetings [16]. - **Domestic News**: On September 19, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1128, up 43 points. The PBOC conducted 3543 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 1243 billion yuan on that day and 5623 billion yuan for the week [18]. 05 Fund Flows On September 19, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.463 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 5.599 billion yuan, including 250 million yuan in agricultural products, 1.083 billion yuan in chemicals, 1.118 billion yuan in black - series, and 3.149 billion yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 13.884 billion yuan, and bond futures had a net outflow of 188 million yuan [21]. 06 Trading Volume - On September 19, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 5500 tons, a 74% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 99,100 tons, an increase of 41,400 tons from the previous day [13]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills from September 13 - 19 was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. It is expected to decrease slightly in the 39th week [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Brazil exported 9,338,292.80 tons of soybeans in August 2025, a 16% year - on - year increase, with a daily average export volume of 444,680.61 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [1]. - Malaysia's crude palm oil production in August 2025 increased by 2.07% compared to the previous month, with production in the Malay Peninsula down 1.26% and in East Malaysia up 7.56% (Sabah up 7.36% and Sarawak up 8.14%) [1]. - Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 5.9 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous forecast, due to good weather conditions [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Brazil's soybean export data in August 2025 shows significant year - on - year growth [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in August 2025 has a mixed performance in different regions [1]. - Australia's rapeseed production is expected to increase due to favorable weather [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 29 to September 4, 2025, are presented [2]. Protein Meal Basis No detailed information provided. Oil Basis No detailed information provided. Oil and Oilseed Futures Spreads No detailed information provided. Main Producer Precipitation Conditions No detailed information provided. Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit No detailed information provided. Oil Import Profit No detailed information provided.

Core Insights - Indonesia is experiencing a wave of protests, but the stock market is at a near five-year high, indicating underlying economic resilience despite short-term challenges such as currency depreciation and weak consumer demand [1][4]. Economic Challenges - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated by 0.17% in the past month and 6.42% over the past year, with the current exchange rate at 16,414.5 IDR per USD [2]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight decrease of 0.08% month-on-month, with an annual inflation rate of 2.31%, reflecting weakened consumer purchasing power [2]. - Domestic travel during the Ramadan period saw a decrease of approximately 47 million people compared to 2024, indicating reduced consumer spending [2]. Trade Performance - Indonesia's imports fell by 5.86% year-on-year in July, marking the largest decline since May 2024, while the country maintained a trade surplus of $4.17 billion for 63 consecutive months, driven by coal, palm oil, and steel exports [3]. - The trade outlook may face uncertainties due to potential impacts from the US-Indonesia tariff agreement and declining coal prices [3]. Stock Market Dynamics - The Jakarta Composite Index closed at 7,885.86 points on September 3, reflecting a 20.96% increase over the past six months, indicating strong market performance despite recent protests [4]. - Economic fundamentals, proactive monetary policy, and valuation recovery are driving the stock market's upward trend [4]. - The stock market is considered undervalued based on the original Buffett indicator, with an expected annual return of +10.9% over the next eight years [5]. Long-term Outlook - Indonesia's large market size and significant role in global commodity trade enhance its resilience against external risks, with food self-sufficiency being a highlight of the economy this year [6]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from ongoing upgrades, supported by demographic advantages and deepening cooperation with major economies like China [5][6].