资讯早班车-2026-03-02 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.2 | 0.4 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M2 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/03/02 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 分析师预计美国1月大豆压榨量为2.263亿蒲式耳据 分析师预测，美国大豆加工商1月份大豆压榨量或达678.9万短吨，即2.263亿蒲式耳。若7位分析师预测均值兑现， 当月压榨量将较12月的2.298亿蒲式耳下降1.5%，但较2025年1月的2.125亿蒲式耳增长6.5%。这也将是史上最高的1月压 榨量，以及有记录以来单月第三高压榨量。压榨量预估区间为2.259亿~2.270亿蒲式耳，中位数为2.262亿蒲式耳。 据4位分析师平均预估，截至1月31日，美国豆油库存预计为24.18亿磅，预估区间23.00亿~25.00亿磅，中位数 24.35亿磅。该预估较12月底的21.79亿磅增长11.0%，较2025年1月底的18.17亿磅大幅增长33.1%。 Safras调降巴西大豆产量预估，而荷兰合作银行则上调预估 受南里约格兰德州的不利天气影响，农业咨询机构Safras&Mercado周五下调巴西2025/26年度大豆产量预估，但荷 兰合作银行的分析师则是上调这一预估，理由是单产整体有利。 Safras表示，预计巴西本年度将生产1.77 ...

油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/26 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 截至2月19日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增40-110万吨 USDA报告公布之前，分析师预估显示，截至2月19日当周，美豆出口销售料净增40-110万吨，其中2025/26市场年度 料净增40-100万吨，2026/27市场年度料净增0-10万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增25-50万吨，其中当前市场年度料净增25-50万吨，下一市场年度料净增0万吨。美国豆油 出口销售料净减1万吨至净增1.6万吨，其中当前市场年度料净减1万吨至净增1.6万吨，下一市场年度料净增0万吨。 美国环保署：美国生物燃料混合规定将于3月最终确定 美国环境保护署助理署长AaronSzabo周三表示，美国环境保护署将于周三向白宫提交新的生物燃料混合量授权提 案，该规则可能会在3月底前最终确定。 MPOA：马来西亚2月1-20日毛棕榈油产量环比下降12.29% MPOA公布的数据显示，马来西亚2月1-20日毛棕榈油产量较前一个月同期下降12.29%。其中，马来半岛产量下降 10.74%，沙巴产量减少15.23%，沙捞越产量减少11.2%，婆 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - From January 22 - 29, US soybean export sales net increase was 43.74 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 138.77 million tons, up 9% from the previous week and 4% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 44.46 million tons, and 0.04 million tons for the next market year [1] - From January 22 - 29, US soybean meal export sales net increase was 38.03 million tons, in line with expectations; export shipments were 30.78 million tons, down 7% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average; new sales for the current market year were 42.35 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1] - Anec forecasts Brazil's soybean exports in February to be 11.42 billion tons, a significant increase from 9.73 billion tons in the same period last year; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.63 billion tons, compared to 1.5 billion tons last year [1] - Secex data shows Brazil exported 1,876,531.75 tons of soybeans in January, a 75.51% increase year - on - year [1] - MPOA data indicates Malaysia's crude palm oil production in January decreased 14.03% month - on - month to 1.57 billion tons [1] - Analysts estimate Canada's rapeseed inventory as of December 31, 2025, to be 15.758 billion tons, up from 13.223 billion tons at the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 30 to February 5, 2026, are presented in a table [2] Group 3: Others - There are mentions of protein meal basis, grease basis, and grease and oil futures price spreads, but no specific data is provided [2][5][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week of January 30, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 24.97% of the sown area, much higher than 12.20% in the same period last year and also exceeding the five - year average. The single - week harvest progress advanced 11.09 percentage points, and the harvest in all regions of the state is accelerating [1]. - Consulting firm Expana raised the forecast of the EU's 2026/27 rapeseed production from the initial estimate of 20.8 million tons at the end of November 2025 to 20.9 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. It is 2% higher than the 20.5 million tons in the previous year due to a significant increase in the sown area [1]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in February at $918.47 per ton, higher than $915.64 per ton in January. The export tariff of crude palm oil in February remains at $74 per ton, and an additional 10% special export tax is also levied [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **Soybean Harvest in Mato Grosso**: As of January 30, the 2025/26 soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 24.97% of the sown area, with a single - week progress of 11.09 percentage points. The fastest - harvesting regions are the north - central (35.41%) and western (36.70%) parts of the state [1]. - **EU Rapeseed Production Forecast**: Expana raised the EU's 2026/27 rapeseed production forecast to 20.9 million tons. The sown area is expected to increase by 6.6% to 6.5 million hectares, while the yield per hectare is expected to decrease by 5.9% to 3.2 tons per hectare [1]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Indonesia raised the February reference price of crude palm oil to $918.47 per ton, with an export tariff of $74 per ton and an additional 10% special export tax [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 26 to January 30, 2026 [2]. Protein Meal Basis No detailed information provided [3]. Fat Basis No detailed information provided [6]. Fat and Oil Futures Spread No detailed information provided [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial and commodity markets, important domestic and foreign macro - economic news, and the latest developments in various industries, offering a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market landscape [3][7][26] 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.48% to $4836.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 1.78% to $92.95 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil and Brent oil futures both rose, with U.S. oil up 0.51% to $60.67 per barrel and Brent oil up 0.61% to $64.58 per barrel [5] - Most London base metals rose, such as LME tin up 3.81% to $51295.0 per ton and LME nickel up 2.05% to $17975.0 per ton [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to U.S. trade negotiation intentions, emphasizing the implementation of the consensus between the two heads of state [8] - China's Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to stabilize the real estate market and support reasonable housing needs [8] - U.S. President Trump stated non - use of force for Greenland and reached a cooperation framework with NATO on Greenland, withdrawing tariff threats to 8 European countries [8] - The U.S. Supreme Court showed caution on Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor, worrying about the impact on the Fed's independence and financial markets [9] Energy and Chemical Futures - The IEA raised the forecast of global oil demand growth but warned of supply exceeding demand, with demand increasing from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day [12] - UAE's Fujairah Port's refined oil inventory increased to 21.357 million barrels in the week ending January 19, 2026 [12] - Japan's commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased, and the refinery's average operating rate dropped to 89.7% [13] Metal Futures - In January, multiple leading polysilicon companies plan to cut production, and the market is expected to be in a weak - balance stalemate [15] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo submitted a short - list of state - owned mineral assets to the U.S. for investment evaluation [16] - Rio Tinto's bauxite production in Q4 2025 was stable, with annual production reaching 62.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year increase [18] - In November 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus, and Rio Tinto will cut 40% of the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in 2026 [18][19] Black - Series Futures - As of the week ending January 21, national production of black - series futures decreased, social inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [21] - BHP's iron ore production in Q4 2025 increased seasonally, with annual output in Western Australia reaching 292 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [21] - Handan will launch a Level Ⅱ emergency response for heavy pollution weather starting from January 22 [23] Agricultural Product Futures - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects February's crude palm oil price to fluctuate between 4000 - 4300 ringgit per ton [25] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% compared to the same period last month [25] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of December 2025 decreased by 14.93% year - on - year, while ethanol production increased by 14.91% [25] Financial Markets Finance - A - shares fluctuated higher on Wednesday, with gold stocks surging, and the market turnover decreased to 2.62 trillion yuan [27] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.37%, and southbound funds had a net purchase of 13.93 billion Hong Kong dollars [27] - The number of Hong Kong IPO - queuing companies exceeded 350 [28] - Many equity funds in 2025 had their scales doubled, and fund managers are optimistic about the 2026 A - share market [28] - "Top - flow" fund managers adjusted their positions in Q4 2025, with different buying and selling operations [28] - "Guotou Silver LOF" will be suspended on January 22, and further measures may be taken if the premium does not decline [30] - Cheung Kong responded to the spin - off rumor, stating that no decision has been made [30] Industry - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform will be put into use around February 5 [31] - In 2025, China's commercial space industry developed rapidly, with 50 launches and 311 satellites put into orbit [31] - In 2025, China's AI core industry scale is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, and the 6G second - stage technology test has been launched [31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised two review requirements for road motor vehicles [31] - By the end of December 2025, China's electric vehicle charging facilities exceeded 20 million [32] - The national electronic pricing scale intelligent measurement supervision platform has started trial operation [34] - China's 35,000 - ton heavy - haul train completed the world's first automatic formation driving test [35] - 20 cities in Guangdong adjusted the commercial housing mortgage policy, with the minimum down - payment ratio set at 30% [36] - Goldman Sachs expects the PCB and CCL industries to enter a super - cycle in 2026, with market growth of 113% and 142% respectively [36] Overseas - Russian President Putin will meet with a U.S. presidential envoy on January 22 and responded to Trump's remarks on Greenland [37] - Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may cut rates at least twice later this year [37] - In December 2025, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan decreased by 45.3% year - on - year, and Japan may see a 3% decline in inbound tourists in 2026 [39] - Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet emphasized the importance of cracking down on online fraud [39] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 1.21%, the S&P 500 up 1.16%, and the Nasdaq up 1.18% [40] - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX down 0.51% and the French CAC40 up 0.08% [41] - Most Asia - Pacific stocks closed lower, except for the South Korean Composite Index, which reached a record high [41] - SpaceX is accelerating its listing preparation to deploy AI data centers in space [41] - Berkshire may "fully" reduce its stake in Kraft Heinz [41] Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold rising and silver falling [43] - U.S. and Brent oil futures rose due to supply concerns and increased demand expectations [43] - Most London base metals rose, with tin and nickel leading the gains [43] Bonds - China's bond market was strong, with long - term bond yields falling and bond futures rising [44] - Vanke's 1.1 - billion - yuan bond "21 Vanke 02" was successfully extended [44] - The U.S. national debt increased rapidly, and the yields of U.S. bonds fell across the board [44][46] - Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group focused on Japanese bonds, and Japanese long - term bond yields fell [46] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciated, and the U.S. dollar index rose [47] - South Korea's President expects the won to appreciate in the next month, but the exchange rate is affected by the yen [47] Upcoming Data and Events - Multiple important economic data from various countries will be released, including GDP, trade balance, and unemployment rate [49] - There are various events such as central bank meetings, press conferences, and corporate earnings reports [51]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for Malaysia's plantation sector remains optimistic, providing a defensive buffer against market uncertainties due to the anticipated increase in palm oil demand from Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy set to launch in the second half of the year [1] Summary by Category Market Outlook - The average crude palm oil price is expected to rise from 4,332 Malaysian Ringgit per ton last year to 4,400 Malaysian Ringgit per ton by 2026, supported by the B50 biodiesel policy [1] Policy Impact - Although the significant impact of the B50 policy is expected to be more pronounced from 2027, the news surrounding its implementation is likely to support prices in the interim [1] Company Preferences - Given the weak outlook for refining and oleochemical products, the company favors upstream businesses with larger exposure [1] - Malaysia Investment Bank maintains an "overweight" rating on the plantation sector, identifying SD Guthrie and Johor Plantations as preferred stocks [1]

Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining an export tax of $74 per ton and an additional 10% export levy [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain stable oil production through the first quarter of 2026, with oil prices dropping over 18% in 2025 due to concerns of oversupply, marking the largest annual decline since 2020 [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are reported at 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from the previous month, while exports for December 1-25 increased by 1.6% to 1,058,112 tons [1] - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are estimated at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from the previous month [1] Inventory and Demand - Reuters reports that Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to nearly a seven-year high, with a 4.7% month-on-month increase to 2.97 million tons, while production is expected to decline by 9% to 1.76 million tons [2] - India's palm oil imports fell to an eight-month low in December, estimated at 507,000 tons, a decrease of 20% month-on-month, which may increase inventories in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia [3] Market Sentiment - The expectation of high palm oil inventories is putting downward pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures, leading to a bearish market sentiment [5] - Seasonal declines in production are anticipated in the coming months, which may influence market dynamics [5]

Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining the export tax at $74 per ton and imposing an additional 10% export levy on crude palm oil [1] - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield for December 1-25, 2025, decreased by 8.49% month-on-month, with an oil extraction rate down by 0.12% and total production down by 9.12% compared to the same period last month [1] Palm Oil Export Data Update - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 were 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from 1,316,455 tons in the previous month. For December 1-25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, an increase of 1.6% from 1,041,935 tons [2] - AmSpec reported Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from 1,263,298 tons, while for December 1-25, exports were 1,017,897 tons, up 3% from 987,978 tons [2] - SGS projected Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-25 at 824,276 tons, an increase of 41.25% compared to the previous month [2] Daily Soybean Oil Spot Prices - Various regions in China reported soybean oil prices, with prices ranging from 8,170 to 8,610 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 10 to 20 yuan across different locations [4] Market Review - As of December 31, multiple institutions reported a month-on-month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports, putting pressure on palm oil futures. However, the potential for a reduction in export reference prices and taxes at the end of the month may incentivize delaying shipments to the next month for profit [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Information - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from December 1 - 20, 2025, decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month, with a 11.66% drop in Peninsular Malaysia, 1.73% in Borneo, 2.12% in Sabah, and 0.75% in Sarawak [1]. 3.2 Production - Country Precipitation - Information about Brazil's soybean precipitation is provided, including observed and forecast precipitation compared to normal, with a total precipitation of 268 mm and a deficit of 110 mm in the 60 - day period ending December 20, 2025, and a 15 - day forecast starting December 21, 2025 [1]. 3.3 Imported Soybean Crushing Profit - Graphs show the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for July and August from 2016 - 2025 [1]. 3.4 Oil Import Profit - Graphs display the import profit of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil for July and August from 2016 - 2025 [1]. 3.5 Spot Prices - Spot prices of palm oil in Guangzhou, soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 18 - 24, 2025, are provided [2]. 3.6 Protein Meal and Oil Basis - Graphs show the basis of soybean meal (January, May, September in Jiangsu), rapeseed meal (January, May, September in Guangdong), soybean oil (January, May, September in Zhangjiagang), palm oil (January, May, September in Guangzhou), and rapeseed oil (January, May, September in East China) for different years and time periods [3][10][12]. 3.7 Oil and Oilseed Futures Spread - Graphs present the seasonal spreads of soybean meal (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), rapeseed meal (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), soybean oil (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), palm oil (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), rapeseed oil (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), soybean - rapeseed meal (January, May, September), soybean - palm oil (January, May, September), and rapeseed - soybean oil (January, May, September) for different years and time periods [10].