大马投资 银行分析师Gan Huey Ling在一份报告中表示，马来西亚种植板块的前景可能会保持乐观，因 为该板块为抵御市场不确定性提供了防御性缓冲。她预计，受印尼将于下半年推出的B50生物柴油政策 提振棕榈油需求的支撑，2026年毛棕榈油价格将从去年的每吨4,332马来西亚林吉特升至平均每吨4,400 马来西亚林吉特。她补充说，虽然B50政策的影响预计从2027年起会更有意义，但有关其实施的消息流 应有助于支撑价格。Gan Huey Ling表示，鉴于炼油和油脂 化工产品的前景疲软，她更青睐上游业务敞 口较大的公司。大马投资银行维持对马来西亚种植板块的增持评级，并将SD Guthrie和Johor Plantations 列为首选股。 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 1、印度尼西亚贸易部表示，印尼已将1月份毛棕榈油参考价格定为每吨915.64美元，低于12月份的每吨 926.14美元。新的参考价格意味着1月份毛棕榈油的出口税将维持在每吨74美元。此外，印尼还对毛棕 榈油单独征收10%的出口专项税。 2、欧佩克+在声明中表示，欧佩克+同意在2026年第一季度维持石油产量稳定。周日的欧佩克+会议召 开之际，由于市场对供应过剩的担忧加剧，2025年油价已下跌超过18%，创下自2020年以来最大年度跌 幅。该组织在去年11月已同意在今年1月、2月和3月暂停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。 据ITS数据显示，马来西亚12月1-25日棕榈油出口量为1058112吨，较上月同期出口的1041935吨增加 1.6%。 ②据AmSpec数据显示，马来西亚12月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1197434吨，较上月同期出口的1263298吨 减少5.21%。 据AmSpec数据显示，马来西亚12月1-25日棕榈油出口量为1017897吨，较上月同期出口的987978吨增加 3%。 ③据SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚2025年12月 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 1、印度尼西亚贸易部表示，印尼已将1月份毛棕榈油参考价格定为每吨915.64美元，低于12月份的每吨 926.14美元。新的参考价格意味着1月份毛棕榈油的出口税将维持在每吨74美元。此外，印尼还对毛棕 榈油单独征收10%的出口专项税。 2、据SPPOMA数据显示，：2025年12月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少8.49%，出油率环 比上月同期减少0.12%，产量环比上月同期减少9.12%。 注：其他关于大豆与豆粕资讯可看公众号第一篇《豆粕晚评》 二、【每日豆油现货报价】 | 市场 | 品名 | 等级 | 包装方式 | 价格 | 演 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 治州 | 成品大豆油 | 国际-级 | 前装 | 8270 | -10 | | 天津 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 散装 | 8250 | -10 | | 北京 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 散转 | 8220 | -10 | | 郑州 | 成品大豆油 | 国际-级 | 散装 | 8370 | -10 | | 图 | 成品 ...

油脂油料早报 合1+ 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/25 隔夜市场信息： 100 ■点资讯 MPOA:马来西亚12月1-20日毛棕榈油产量环比下降7.44% ● MPOA公布的数据显示，马来西亚12月1-20日毛棕榈油产量较上月同期下降7.44%。其中，马来半岛产量下降 11.66%，婆罗洲产量下降1.73%，沙巴产量减少2.12%，沙捞越产量减少0.75%。 产 国 降 水 情 况 Brazil Soybeans Precipitation Brazil Soybeans Precipitation Observed Precipitation Compared to Normal (mm) Forecast Precipitation Compared to Normal (mm) Production-Weighted Area Average Production-Weighted Area Average 60 days ending 20 December 2025 15-Day Forecast Beginning 21 December 2025 250 Accumulated Prec ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall operation of China's commodity market in 2025 was stable, with obvious characteristics of new and old kinetic energy conversion. The average value of the China Commodity Price Index was expected to be 112.1 points, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [4]. - The Chinese bond market showed a positive trend, with the yields of interest - rate bonds declining. The year - end bond market might continue to fluctuate, and the market was cautious about the overall space of the bond market next year [26]. - A - share market entered a critical window for cross - year layout, and structural opportunities would focus on the tracks where policy orientation and industrial prosperity resonated, with the subsequent spring market worth looking forward to [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year's 4.6% [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a certain decline [1]. - Social financing scale in November 2025 increased compared to the same period last year, and M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of lithium carbonate futures contracts [2]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures [2]. - Shanghai International Energy Trading Center planned to revise the standard contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a final review investigation on anti - dumping measures for imported ethylene - propylene - diene monomer rubber from the US, South Korea, and the EU [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Platinum prices soared in 2025, with a year - to - date increase of over 110%, far exceeding that of gold [6]. - Gold and silver prices rose under the new round of interest - rate cuts, with silver prices increasing by over 130% this year [6]. - There was an obvious surplus of refined copper in the first ten months of 2025 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures [2][9]. - China's steel consumption in 2025 was expected to be 8.08 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%, and the global steel consumption was expected to be 17.19 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9]. - Indonesia proposed to significantly reduce nickel ore production in 2026 [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative production of oil and gas equivalent in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, reaching a record high [12]. - China's energy key projects in 2025 were expected to complete an investment of 3.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11% [12]. - The price of polysilicon increased, but there was a situation of "high price but no market" [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Manzhouli Port achieved a "zero breakthrough" in importing Russian agricultural products [15]. - The Philippines extended the import ban on sugar until December 2026 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market were due, along with 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits and 3000 billion yuan of MLF [16]. - On December 19, the central bank conducted 562 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchases, with a net investment of 357 billion yuan on that day [16][17]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - The market generally expected that the LPR in December would remain stable [18]. - The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference [18]. - The General Administration of Market Regulation revised the "Regulations on Prohibiting Monopoly Agreements" [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of interest - rate bonds in the Chinese bond market declined, and the 30 - year active bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 06" performed prominently [26]. - Most of Vanke's bonds rose in the exchange bond market [26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.041 on December 22, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [30]. - The US dollar index rose 0.28% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believed that the factors driving the RMB appreciation were increasing, and investors should adapt to asset allocation in a RMB - appreciating environment [32]. - CITIC Securities thought that Japan's benign inflation cycle was stable, and the Bank of Japan was about to raise interest rates again [32]. - CITIC Construction Investment considered that the concentrated release of pessimistic sentiment at the end of the year brought potential space for financial bonds [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - A - share market was in a high - level oscillation state near the end of the year, and the Shanghai Composite Index turned positive last week [36]. - As of December 19, the net inflow of subscription and redemption funds of CSI A500 exceeded that of CSI 300 in December, with the net inflow scale exceeding 46 billion yuan [36]. - By December 18, more than 454 listed companies had received institutional research in December, and the hard - tech track became the main focus [37].

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/08 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售462,000吨大豆 USDA网站12月5日消息，民间出口商报告向中国出口销售462,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 USDA：美国2026/27年度料扩大大豆种植面积 USDA发布的一项预估数据显示，在下一市场年度，美国农民预计将扩大大豆种植面积。 美国农业部预计，大豆种植面积将从8,110万英亩扩大至8,500万英亩。美国农业部的初步"基线"预测是基于其在 11月14日的月度供需报告，该预测通常被用于预算编制。 美国农业部预测，2026/27年度美国大豆期末库存为3.14亿蒲式耳。 截至11月6日当周，美国2025/26年度大豆出口销售料净增45-160万吨 USDA将在北京时间21:30发布截至11月6日当周出口销售报告。分析师预估，截至11月6日当周，美国大豆出口销售 料净增450,000-1,600,000吨。其中2025/26年度料净增450,000-1,600,000吨，2026/27年度料净增0吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增50,000-400,000吨。其中2025- ...

【国富期货早间看点】印尼12月毛棕榈油参考价926.14美元/吨 USDA美豆当周出口合计净增110.80万吨 20251201 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月1日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4114.00 | 0. 61 | | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 32 | -0.95 | -1.02 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 58. 48 | -0. 12 | -1.25 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1137.25 | 0. 44 | 0. 13 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 318. 60 | -0. 65 | -0. 03 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 52.08 | 2.02 | 0. 85 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (美分/浦式耳) | | (美元/吨) | | 进口大豆报价 | 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities analysts indicate that palm oil prices may rise this week due to market concerns over declining production in Malaysia and rising prices of other edible oils [1] Group 1: Supply Concerns - Adverse weather conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to negatively impact palm oil supply [1] - Malaysian authorities have confirmed that certain regions are experiencing flooding and landslides due to monsoon rains [1] Group 2: Price Movements - In the week ending November 27, crude palm oil prices fell by over 2%, influenced by a stronger Malaysian ringgit and concerns over declining exports [1] - Recent crude palm oil prices are reported at 4,114 Malaysian ringgit per ton according to the London Stock Exchange Group [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the soybean, soybean meal, and palm oil industries, including export sales, planting progress, and price - setting data [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported selling 312,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - For the week ending October 16, US soybean export sales net increased by 1.108 million tons, up 41% from the previous week and 34% from the four - week average, with exports loading at 1.7301 million tons, up 150% from the previous week and 173% from the four - week average [1]. - For the week ending October 16, US soybean meal export sales net increased by 543,100 tons, up 52% from the previous week and 288% from the four - week average, with exports loading at 380,400 tons, up 86% from the previous week and 46% from the four - week average [1]. - Patria Agronegocios reported that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86.97%, lower than 89.54% in the same period last year but higher than the five - year average of 85.13%, and most areas may have lower yields than the 2024/25 season [1]. - The EIA reported that US soybean oil used for biofuel production in September rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in December at $926.14 per ton, lower than $963.75 in November, and the export tariff will drop to $74 from $124 in the previous month [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 24 to November 28, 2025 are presented [2].

Group 1: Hot News - "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the internal division in the Fed has cast a shadow over the rate - cut path, with such a degree of division having few precedents in Fed Chair Powell's nearly eight - year tenure [2] - China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice - Chairman Li Ming stated that on the investment side, efforts will be made to continuously improve the market ecosystem for long - term investment, promote the implementation of the plan to boost the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, strengthen strategic force reserves and market - stabilizing mechanism construction, enhance the internal stability of the capital market, and prevent sharp market fluctuations [2] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement on the 12th, clarifying that "all the rumors on the Internet are false information" and vowing to fight against malicious short - selling of the photovoltaic industry [2] - Malaysian trade and industry officials said Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons [2] - Citi expects copper prices to continue to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 ($14,000 per ton in a bullish scenario), and to trade at around $11,000 per ton for the rest of this year [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are low - sulfur fuel oil, soda ash, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a night - session increase of 3.32%, precious metals 29.95%, oilseeds 9.49%, non - ferrous metals and soft commodities 2.66% and 23.18% respectively, coal, coke, and steel ore 12.44%, energy 2.91%, chemicals 10.95%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.90% [3] Group 4: Asset Performance Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.07%, a monthly increase of 1.15%, and a yearly increase of 19.34%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 0.32%, a monthly increase of 1.09%, and a yearly increase of 13.39%; the CSI 300 had a daily decline of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.11%, and a yearly increase of 18.07%; the CSI 500 had a daily decline of 0.66%, a monthly decline of 1.20%, and a yearly increase of 26.50%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly increase of 0.16%, and a yearly increase of 16.48%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly increase of 3.92%, and a yearly increase of 34.21%; the German DAX had a daily increase of 1.22%, a monthly increase of 1.77%, and a yearly increase of 22.46%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 0.43%, a monthly decline of 2.57%, and a yearly increase of 28.00%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.12%, a monthly increase of 2.00%, and a yearly increase of 21.27% [5] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.02%, a monthly decline of 0.15%, and a yearly decline of 0.37%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%, a monthly decline of 0.09%, and a yearly decline of 0.54%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.01%, a monthly decline of 0.07%, and a yearly decline of 0.49% [5] Commodity - The CRB Commodity Index had a daily decline of 1.43%, a monthly increase of 0.04%, and a yearly increase of 2.00%; WTI crude oil had a daily decline of 4.10%, a monthly decline of 3.83%, and a yearly decline of 18.60%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 1.68%, a monthly increase of 4.79%, and a yearly increase of 59.85%; LME copper had a daily increase of 0.65%, a monthly increase of 0.05%, and a yearly increase of 24.09%; the Wind Commodity Index had a daily increase of 0.37%, a monthly increase of 1.50%, and a yearly increase of 32.59% [5] Other - The US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.00%, a monthly decline of 0.25%, and a yearly decline of 8.30%; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily change of 0.00%, a monthly decline of 0.92%, and a yearly decline of 0.40% [5]