Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues of $5.3 billion for the September quarter, a 3% increase from the June quarter [5][18] - Gross margin reached 50.6%, and operating margin was 35%, both record levels for the company [5][18] - Deferred revenue balance at quarter end was $2.77 billion, slightly up from the June quarter [18] - Diluted earnings per share were $1.26, above the midpoint of the guidance range [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Foundry accounted for 60% of systems revenue, up from 52% in the June quarter, marking the third consecutive record quarter [19] - Memory contributed 34% of systems revenue, down from 41% in the prior quarter, with non-volatile memory at 18% [19] - DRAM increased to 16% of systems revenue from 14%, driven by strong investments in high-bandwidth memory [19][20] - The Customer Support Business Group generated approximately $1.8 billion in revenue, slightly higher sequentially and year over year [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - China represented 43% of total revenue, up from 35% in the prior quarter, with domestic customers growing significantly [21] - Taiwan accounted for 19% of revenue, flat sequentially, while Korea decreased to 15% from 22% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company anticipates a $200 million revenue impact from the new 50% affiliate rule affecting shipments to certain domestic China customers [6] - AI-related demand is expected to support sustained strength in leading-edge foundry logic and DRAM, with a robust setup for equipment spending in 2026 [7][8] - The company is investing in advanced packaging opportunities, anticipating a shift to panel-level packaging to meet the demand for larger chips [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects the China region to represent less than 30% of overall revenues in 2026 due to the impact of the new regulations [7] - The company sees a strong demand for NAND upgrades and anticipates over $40 billion in spending for upgrades over the next several years [9][20] - Management expressed confidence in outperforming the wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market in the long term due to technology trends in semiconductor manufacturing [38] Other Important Information - The company plans to provide a detailed 2026 WFE spending outlook in January [8] - Capital expenditures for the September quarter were $185 million, focused on lab investments and manufacturing site expansions [27] - The company remains committed to returning at least 85% of free cash flow to shareholders over time [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on customer conversations regarding AI infrastructure spending - Management noted that while recent announcements indicate future demand, current equipment needs are focused on enterprise SSDs and NAND upgrades [32][34] Question: Drivers for relative outperformance in 2026 - Management highlighted that Lam's markets in etch and deposition are expected to outgrow WFE due to ongoing technology transitions [36][38] Question: Clarification on December revenue guidance - Management indicated that the stronger-than-expected WFE and high-bandwidth memory investments contributed to the revised guidance [41][42] Question: Expectations for China revenue in 2026 - Management expressed confidence that China revenue would decline due to the anticipated restrictions, despite previous growth trends [43][45] Question: WFE intensity in AI data centers - Management clarified that the $8 billion of WFE for every $100 billion in data center investment reflects the growing opportunity for Lam in AI applications [49][52] Question: NAND market outlook and growth drivers - Management indicated that NAND growth would primarily be driven by upgrades, with potential for new tools if demand remains high [68][69]

Lam Research (NasdaqGS:LRCX) Q1 2026 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsBrian Chin - Director of Semiconductor Capital EquipmentMelissa Weathers - VP of Equity ResearchRam Ganesh - Head of Investor RelationsTim Archer - President and CEODoug Bettinger - EVP and CFOCJ Muse - Senior Managing DirectorTim Arcuri - Managing DirectorConference Call ParticipantsVivek Arya - Managing Director and Senior Equity Research AnalystBlayne Curtis - Managing Director and Equity Research AnalystJ ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the **Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, particularly insights gathered from meetings at **SEMICON West** [1][2]. Core Insights - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The tone from industry management teams was generally constructive, with expectations for **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** growth in the upcoming year [1]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors have become more optimistic, particularly regarding a potential recovery in the memory sector, especially in **DRAM** [2]. - **Memory Market Dynamics**: Evidence of recovery is more apparent in **DRAM**, while **NAND** capacity orders remain uncertain, although upgrade spending continues [2]. Company-Specific Insights Lam Research (LRCX) - **Outlook**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **$105**. Management indicated strong revenues from China in the upcoming quarter and sees a **$40 billion** NAND upgrade opportunity over several years [9]. - **Market Position**: Lam is well-positioned in NAND and DRAM, with expectations of benefiting from memory upgrades and HBM investments [9]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: The company believes that U.S. tariff impacts are manageable and that local competition in China is growing but still prioritizes tool quality [9]. Applied Materials (AMAT) - **Outlook**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **$195**. Management acknowledged a misjudgment in customer ramp plans but remains confident in future growth [10]. - **Market Dynamics**: DRAM wafer starts are expected to increase, while NAND upgrades are anticipated to drive growth without new fabs [10]. Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) - **Outlook**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **¥31,100**. Management sees potential upside in DRAM revenues but remains cautious about NAND investments [11][12]. Soitec SA - **Outlook**: Rated **Outperform** with a price target of **€74**. The company is undergoing a leadership transition and expects inventory corrections in RF SOI to stabilize by the end of 2026 [19][20]. - **Market Position**: Soitec anticipates a **5-10%** growth trajectory for RF SOI post-correction, driven by 5G and new use cases [21]. Entegris (ENTG) - **Overview**: Entegris provides specialized electronic materials and solutions, with a business mix of **70% Logic** and **30% Memory** [29]. - **Market Outlook**: Management expects average performance this year due to market asynchronicity but sees growth opportunities in Logic, DRAM, and NAND [29]. Onto Innovation Inc - **Overview**: Focused on process control and metrology tools, with advanced packaging being a significant revenue driver [32]. - **Market Dynamics**: The company is working to regain market share lost to KLA and is diversifying its manufacturing footprint to mitigate geopolitical risks [32]. Nova Limited (NVMI) - **Overview**: A leading provider of metrology equipment, with a focus on increasing metrology intensity in semiconductor manufacturing [36]. - **Market Position**: Management sees significant growth opportunities in advanced packaging and gate-all-around technologies [36]. Form Factor (FORM) - **Overview**: Specializes in probe cards and measurement equipment, with a focus on HBM growth driven by engagements with major customers [40]. - **Market Dynamics**: The company is undergoing operational changes to improve gross margins and has seen a significant drop in revenues from China due to export controls [40]. Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) - **Overview**: A key supplier of precision power equipment for the semiconductor industry, with half of its revenue derived from this market [42]. - **Market Outlook**: Management sees strong long-term growth potential across various end markets, including semiconductors and data centers [43]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Companies are navigating challenges posed by local competition in China and U.S. export controls, which have impacted revenues and market strategies [9][32][40]. - **Technological Innovations**: There is a focus on advanced packaging and new materials, which are expected to drive future growth across various segments of the semiconductor industry [36][40]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the overall market sentiment, company-specific insights, and additional important factors influencing the semiconductor capital equipment industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Capital Equipment - **Key Focus**: Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) and its role in supporting AI and high-performance computing (HPC) demand, alongside memory market dynamics and reshoring trends [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Optimistic Multi-Year Outlook**: The semiconductor capital equipment sector is expected to benefit significantly from large data center deployments, with a projected long-term industry spend of $150 billion in WFE supporting over $1 trillion in semiconductor sales by 2030 [1] - **Memory Upcycle**: There is growing optimism regarding a memory upcycle, with expectations of strong upward revisions in earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 and 2027 due to improving visibility and demand [1][2] - **WFE Estimates**: Revised estimates for WFE in 2025 and 2026 are $117.8 billion (+12% YoY) and $128 billion (+9% YoY), respectively, driven by leading-edge foundry and logic growth, as well as NAND upgrade activities [3] - **Investment in AI**: Semiconductor capital equipment is viewed as a high-quality, lower-volatility investment opportunity due to the increasing complexity and demand for advanced AI chips [4] Company-Specific Insights Applied Materials (AMAT) - **Rating Upgrade**: AMAT's rating was upgraded to Buy with a price objective (PO) raised to $250, driven by expectations of WFE outgrowth in 2026 due to robust DRAM investments [2][10] - **China Revenue Impact**: New export controls are expected to reduce AMAT's China revenue by $110 million in Q4 and $600 million in FY26, but the company remains optimistic about its market share and future revenue [10][33] - **DRAM and NAND Outlook**: AMAT anticipates a strong year for DRAM WFE in 2026, with potential share gains in both DRAM and leading-edge logic markets [10][33] Camtek (CAMT) - **Rating Upgrade**: CAMT's rating was upgraded to Buy with a PO raised to $135, reflecting improved HBM demand and potential sales growth [2][17] - **HBM Demand**: The company is positioned to benefit from a major investment cycle in memory, particularly in HBM, with expectations of increased wafer inspection demand as technology advances [41] - **Tool Development**: CAMT's new tools, Hawk and G5, are expected to significantly contribute to revenue, with a focus on high-end HBM and chiplet applications [41] Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) - **Rating Downgrade**: ACLS was downgraded to Underperform with a new PO of $90, citing limited near-term catalysts and challenges in key markets [2][22] - **Merger with Veeco**: The proposed merger with Veeco is seen as beneficial in the long term, but the immediate outlook remains cautious due to competition and market dynamics [22][39] Other Companies - **LRCX, KLAC, NVMI, AEIS, MKSI**: Price objectives for these companies were raised based on strong market positions and growth prospects in NAND and foundry/logic segments [2][26][27][28][29][30] Additional Important Insights - **Valuation Trends**: Semiconductor capital equipment valuations have increased, with large-cap forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratios re-rating significantly year-to-date [4] - **Risks**: Potential risks include competition from domestic Chinese suppliers, export controls, and the impact of trailing-edge WFE sales on overall performance [15][21][33] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the optimistic outlook for the semiconductor capital equipment industry, specific company insights, and potential risks that investors should consider.

Group 1 - Rewey Asset Management's "RAM Smid Composite" reported a 10.70% increase in the third quarter of 2025, outperforming the benchmark Russell 2500 Value Total Return Index, which gained 8.17% [1] - Year-to-date, the composite returned 9.29%, matching the benchmark's performance [1] - Smaller market cap indices in the Russell family outperformed larger counterparts during the third quarter [1] Group 2 - Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UCTT) is highlighted as a key stock, with a one-month return of 6.40% but a 52-week loss of 25.72% [2] - As of October 13, 2025, Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. had a market capitalization of $1.26 billion, with shares closing at $27.78 [2] - The company focuses on gas delivery systems and cleaning services for the semiconductor capital equipment industry, with Lam Research and Applied Materials as its largest customers [3] Group 3 - RAM Smid Composite continued to build its position in Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. during price weakness early in the quarter [3] - UCTT shares ended the quarter at $27.29, significantly below their 52-week high of $41.84, attributed to weak semiconductor capital equipment spending [3] - The investment outlook for UCTT is considered compelling, with expectations of a positive inflection in the semiconductor capital expenditure cycle not yet reflected in revenue and earnings estimates [3]

Core Insights - Heartland Mid Cap Value Fund's portfolio increased by 1.63% in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell Midcap® Value Index, which gained 6.18% [1] - Stock selection was identified as the main factor contributing to the fund's underperformance, as the market favored large- and mid-cap growth stocks driven by optimism around AI and rising electricity demand [1] - The focus on valuations during this period was noted to be potentially detrimental to performance [1] Company Highlights - Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) was highlighted as a significant holding in the Heartland Mid Cap Value Fund, with a one-month return of 10.20% and a 52-week gain of 53.29% [2] - As of October 10, 2025, Lam Research's stock closed at $131.37 per share, with a market capitalization of $165.662 billion [2] - Lam Research is recognized as a leading supplier of semiconductor capital equipment, crucial for producing advanced integrated circuits in the chip industry [3]

Summary of SEMICON West Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Capital Equipment - **Event**: SEMICON West Conference held in Arizona from October 7-9, 2025 - **General Sentiment**: The conference highlighted excitement about competition driving industry growth in Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) and testing, but also a cautious outlook for December quarter earnings [1][2] Key Takeaways 1. **Memory Pricing vs Capex**: - Increased bullishness on memory WFE due to better pricing and stronger bit demand - Industry participants expressed skepticism about overly positive memory WFE outlook - Micron's FY26 capex guidance and Kioxia's Kitakami Fab2 operation start were cited as validations [2][2][2] 2. **Market Share Dynamics**: - Each company presented its own market share gain narrative, with notable mentions including TEL, SCREEN, AMAT, and Veeco/Axcelis - Anticipation of competition driving the industry forward [2][2] 3. **China Market Dynamics**: - New Chinese customers were significant for WFE in 2023-2024, but orders have slowed, particularly in mature logic - Leading-edge Chinese customers still show strength, with fierce competition noted in trailing-edge segments [2][2] 4. **Test Intensity**: - Teradyne and Advantest are competing for memory market share, with increased test insertions driven by a focus on yield and time to market - Expansion beyond mobile testing into new areas like HBM testing [2][2] 5. **Broader Growth Drivers**: - MKS and AEIS highlighted growth in segments outside semiconductors, particularly in PCB chemistry and data centers, benefiting from AI-related demand [2][2] Company-Specific Insights - **AEIS**: - Moderated WFE outlook due to softer trailing-edge logic demand but expects strong DRAM WFE market growth [6][6] - **Advantest**: - Focused on expanding offerings across the test value chain, leveraging AI for optimization [7][7] - **AMAT**: - Addressed concerns regarding China and GAA market share, emphasizing a timing issue for the $500 million miss in guidance [8][8] - **AMKR**: - Ground-breaking announcement for a new facility in Arizona with a $7 billion investment, aligned with TSMC [9][9] - **Lasertec**: - Noted growth in memory customers and increased inquiries from Chinese customers amid tighter restrictions [11][11] - **MKS**: - No indications of a significant ramp in memory demand, but optimistic about tool demand continuing to drive growth [12][12] - **SCREEN**: - Observed increasing cleaning intensity and cautious optimism for medium-term growth [13][13] - **Teradyne**: - Highlighted the importance of test coverage and announced new products to meet growing networking demands [14][15] - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: - Cautioned against over-optimism regarding memory prices and emphasized a focus on leading-edge customers [16][16] - **Veeco**: - Discussed the strategic merger with Axcelis to tackle AI-driven market demands [17][17] Additional Insights - **General Market Sentiment**: The conference underscored a cautious optimism regarding the semiconductor market, with varying dynamics in different segments and regions, particularly concerning China [2][2][2]

Levi Strauss - Levi Strauss reported better-than-expected earnings, with adjusted EPS of 34 cents per share and revenue exceeding $1.5 billion [2][3] - The company anticipates a 3% decline in fourth-quarter revenue compared to last year, citing concerns over tariffs impacting demand [2][4] - For the fiscal year, Levi Strauss expects a sales increase of 3%, up from a prior forecast of 1-2%, and adjusted EPS guidance has been raised to between $1.27 and $1.32 [4][5] Oracle - Oracle received positive adjustments from analysts, with Ever ISI raising its price target to $350 and Citigroup boosting it to $415, maintaining a buy rating [6][7] - Analysts view recent pullbacks in Oracle's stock as a buying opportunity, driven by growth in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and expected clarity on capital expenditures and profitability from AI projects [7][8] - An upcoming AI world event in Las Vegas is anticipated to serve as a catalyst for Oracle's stock [9] Applied Materials - Applied Materials saw a price target increase from B Riley to $265, up from $200, with a buy rating maintained [10] - The stock has risen over 30% year-to-date, driven by expectations of significant order growth in semiconductor capital equipment [11][12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment - **Focus**: Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) imports to China Core Insights and Arguments - **August 2025 WFE Imports**: Total imports reached USD 3,010 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 12% but a month-over-month decrease of 20% [2][25] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Year-to-date imports are up 3% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential flat year overall [2][25] - **Lithography Segment Growth**: Lithography imports grew by 55% year-over-year in August, while other segments remained mostly flat [3] - **Vendor Performance**: U.S. vendors (including Malaysia and Singapore) captured approximately 38% of the market share, up from 33% in 2024, driven by Malaysia's increased share [3] - **Japan's Market Share**: Japan's share of WFE imports remains weak at 24% year-to-date, down from an average of 26% last year, due to unfavorable foreign exchange conditions and delayed purchases [3] Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Estimated China lithography imports for Q3 at EUR 2.17 billion, a 44% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 22% decrease year-over-year. China sales are expected to represent 38% of overall system revenue, up from 27% in Q2 [4][66] - **LRCX (Lam Research)**: Predicted a 14% increase in China revenues for Q3, with China exposure expected to be around 40% of total revenues [5][79] - **AMAT (Applied Materials)**: Anticipated a 12% decrease in China revenues for Q4, with China exposure around 33% of total revenues [6][88] - **TEL (Tokyo Electron)**: Expected a 12% year-over-year increase and a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase in China revenue [8] - **Kokusai**: Projected a significant increase in China revenue, up 58% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter [9] - **Screen**: Expected a decline in China revenue, down 11% year-over-year but up 16% quarter-over-quarter [10] - **Advantest**: Anticipated a further decline in China revenue, down 41% year-over-year and 35% quarter-over-quarter [11] Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 450.00, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution in China [13] - **AMEC**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, recognized for its technology and market position [14] - **Piotech**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, noted for product innovation and market share gains [15] - **AMAT**: Positive outlook on WFE growth, driven by market expansion and capital returns [18] - **LRCX**: Supportive commentary for CY25, indicating a potential NAND upgrade cycle [19] - **ASML**: Cautious stance on growth, with revenue forecasts aligning with lower guidance [20] Additional Important Insights - **China's Role in WFE Market**: China is increasingly significant in the global WFE market, with global vendors capturing about 84% of the market share in 2024 [21] - **Import Trends**: The data indicates a shift in production for U.S. vendors, with increased imports from Singapore and Malaysia [38][46] - **Lithography Imports**: The share of lithography imports from the Netherlands has increased significantly since 2023, reflecting changes in supply chain dynamics [60][62] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the semiconductor capital equipment industry, company-specific forecasts, and broader market trends.

Summary of Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, particularly in **North America**. - The **2026 Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market forecast has been revised from a growth of **5%** to **10%**, with the new forecast set at **$128 billion** compared to the previous **$122 billion** [1][4]. Key Companies Discussed 1. **Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)** - Upgraded to **Overweight (OW)** with a new price target of **$209** from **$172**. - CY26 EPS forecast raised from **$9.58** to **$10.45**. - AMAT is expected to benefit significantly from DRAM growth, with a **3:1 bull:bear skew** in its favor [3][24][28]. 2. **Lam Research Corp (LAM)** - Upgraded to **Equal-weight (EW)** with a new price target of **$125** from **$92**. - CY26 EPS forecast increased from **$5.12** to **$5.43**. - Despite a positive outlook, LAM is expected to underperform WFE growth slightly [3][25][35]. 3. **KLA Corp (KLA)** - Downgraded to **Equal-weight (EW)** with a new price target of **$1,093** from **$928**. - CY26 EPS forecast raised from **$37.11** to **$39.03**. - KLA's valuation is at a **30% premium** compared to AMAT and LAM, making further premium expansion difficult [3][26][40]. Core Insights - **Memory Market Dynamics**: - The **memory WFE** forecast has been adjusted, with DRAM expected to reach **$34.9 billion** in 2026, reflecting an **18%** increase year-over-year, and NAND projected at **$13.8 billion**, a **35%** increase [9][13]. - Improved pricing conditions in both DRAM and NAND have been noted, with significant orders from hyperscalers driving demand [10][11]. - **Investment Trends**: - There is a shift in capital expenditure (capex) priorities towards DRAM, which may delay NAND capex improvements [2][17]. - The overall sentiment in the semiconductor capital equipment sector is cautiously optimistic, with risks skewed to the upside if major players like Intel and Samsung accelerate their foundry investments [2][11]. Additional Important Points - **Market Forecasts**: - The WFE revenue is expected to grow from **$117.171 billion** in 2025 to **$128.304 billion** in 2026, with a projected growth rate of **10%** [6]. - The semiconductor revenue is forecasted to increase from **$736.304 billion** in 2025 to **$809.193 billion** in 2026 [6]. - **Regional Insights**: - North America is projected to contribute **$12.830 billion** to the WFE market in 2026, maintaining a steady growth trajectory [8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - AMAT currently trades at **18x CY26 MSe**, while LAM and KLA trade at **23x** and **27x**, respectively, indicating a valuation discount for AMAT that is expected to narrow as DRAM growth accelerates [28][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the revised forecasts, company-specific insights, and broader industry trends.