【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕12月前20日产量环比减7.44% 阿根廷当周销售25.66万吨24/25大豆 20251225 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月25日 07:53 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油03(BMD) | 4035.00 | -0. 02 | | | 布伦特03(ICE) | 61. 84 | -0. 13 | -0.23 | | 美原油02(NYMEX) | 58. 40 | -0. 12 | -0. 29 | | 美豆O3 (CBOT) | 1075. 75 | 1.20 | 0. 61 | | 美豆粕03(CBOT) | 308.00 | 1.32 | 0. 82 | | 美豆油03(CBOT) | 49.51 | 1.52 | 0. 84 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 97.95 | 0. 01 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0471 | - ...

Core Insights - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing a resurgence, with China's soybean purchases exceeding 1 million tons since early October, following a trade truce between the U.S. and China [1][2][9] - The recent data indicates a significant recovery opportunity for U.S. agricultural companies, particularly those involved in soybean production, as optimism grows for agricultural exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [2][9][10] U.S. Agricultural Sector's Dependence on China - China has historically been the largest buyer of U.S. farm goods, particularly soybeans, but has recently reduced its reliance on U.S. imports due to increased tariffs and competitive pricing from other suppliers [4][5][7] - The U.S. agricultural trade deficit reached $19.7 billion from January to April 2025, marking the largest deficit for that period [6][7] - The soybean industry has been significantly impacted, with exports to China dropping to nearly zero after tariffs were raised to 34% in April 2025 [7][8] Relevance of the Recent Data - The resumption of large-scale soybean purchases by China signals a vital recovery for the U.S. agricultural sector, with state-owned Cofco Group booking nearly 20 cargoes for delivery in December and January [9][10] - The trade truce includes a commitment from China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, providing stability for the agricultural ecosystem [10] Agricultural ETFs to Watch - The improving trade outlook suggests potential recovery for agricultural equities, with specific ETFs poised to benefit from the positive trade momentum [11] - Invesco Agriculture Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBA) has a net asset value of $34.69 per share and provides exposure to various agricultural commodities, though it has lost 2.1% year to date [12] - Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB) has total net assets of $51.74 million and has gained 9.3% year to date, indicating strong performance [13] - Teucrium Agricultural Strategy No K-1 ETF (TILL) focuses on futures contracts of agricultural commodities and has a net asset value of $5.56 million, despite a year-to-date loss of 4.3% [14]

China has lifted its suspension on soybean purchases from three American suppliers, further easing tensions over agricultural trade between between Beijing and Washington https://t.co/RGIJXUh1qg ...

Trade Deal with China - President Trump declared a trade deal with China a "12 out of 10" success, leading to a surge in global indices, including a 3.2% increase in Shanghai and a 2.8% rise in Nikkei [2][3] - The deal included a rollback of US tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47% and a reduction of tariffs on fentanyl-related goods from 20% to 10% [4] - China committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of US soybeans immediately for 2025, followed by 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years, initially boosting soybean futures [4] Market Reactions - Despite initial enthusiasm, analysts described the deal as a "fragile truce," with unresolved structural issues in the US-China economic rivalry [3] - US-listed Chinese tech stocks like Bilibili, Alibaba, and Baidu experienced declines in premarket trading, indicating investor skepticism [3] - Soybean futures saw a paradoxical drop of 1.32% on the same day the deal was announced, attributed to disappointment over the lack of concrete details [4] Canadian Trade Relations - President Trump announced a 10% increase in tariffs on Canadian goods, exacerbating economic challenges for Canada, which contracted by 1.6% in Q2 2025 [5] - Over 70% of Canadian small and medium-sized businesses reported negative impacts from existing tariffs, particularly in wholesale trade, transportation, and manufacturing [5] - The US Senate's symbolic vote to block Trump's tariffs on Canada is unlikely to change policy, as it is non-binding [5] Truck Tariffs - New 25% tariffs on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks took effect on November 1, 2025, benefiting domestic manufacturers like Paccar and Daimler Truck North America [6] - Paccar's CEO expressed optimism about the tariffs reducing costs for customers, while Ford's outlook improved due to the competitive landscape changing in their favor [6] Global Tariff Landscape - India's products faced a 25% tariff, pushing total duties to approximately 50%, which negatively impacted the Indian stock market and key export sectors [7] - A 100% tariff on foreign films was announced, raising concerns about potential underperformance in media and entertainment stocks due to retaliatory measures [8] Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The events of November 1, 2025, exemplified the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's impact on global markets, characterized by contradictory policy announcements and a constant state of flux [9] - The market's response to trade deals and tariffs reflects a broader uncertainty, necessitating close monitoring of news cycles for investors [9]

Trade War & Negotiations - The US initiated an unprecedented tariff war and tech war against China, leading to retaliatory measures from China [9][10] - China views the trade tensions as necessary struggles for economic strengthening and is prepared to fight to the end [2] - The US may have overestimated its leverage and underestimated China's capacity for counteraction and strategic composure [4] - A potential meeting between the two presidents is desired by both sides, but requires improved conditions to be fruitful [6][7] - China expects the US to show good faith by scaling back the new rule implemented on September 29th [13][14] - China is prepared to walk away from negotiations if no agreement can be reached [31][32] Leverage & Retaliation - China's export control policy on rare earths is mainly a retaliation to recent US moves [20] - The soybean issue is part of China's leverage in dealing with US tariffs, and reconsideration of US agricultural product purchases is possible if tariff issues are addressed [23] US Policy & Internal Divisions - The US administration is divided between pragmatists seeking improved relations and those pushing for strategic decoupling [11][12] - The US side understands the limits of tariff control, as tariffs have been counterproductive and contributed to inflation [28][29] Future Outlook - Another extension of trade talks is expected as a minimum, with the hope of resolving the tariff issue entirely [26][27] - The business community desires a clear message from both sides to reduce uncertainty [28]

Core Insights - The US soybean industry is significantly impacted by the ongoing trade war with China, leading to unfavorable market conditions [1] Global Soybean Market Update - China is projected to import 112.0 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans during the 2025-2026 marketing year, unchanged from the previous month and an increase of 5.5 mmt from 2024-2025 [2] - Brazil's soybean exports for the 2025-2026 marketing year are also estimated at 112.0 mmt, unchanged from last month and up 9.9 mmt from 2024-2025, which would surpass Brazil's previous record of 104.17 mmt from 2023-2024 [2] - The USDA estimates US soybean exports at 45.86 mmt for 2025-2026, a decrease of 0.54 mmt from last month and down 5.17 mmt from 2024-2025, marking the lowest export figure since 2019-2020 [2] Historical Context - In the 2014-2015 marketing year, Brazil and the US were nearly even in exports, with Brazil at 50.61 mmt and the US at 50.14 mmt, while China imported 78.35 mmt [3] - The following year, Brazil's exports increased to 54.38 mmt, while US exports fell to 52.86 mmt, as China's imports rose to 83.23 mmt [3] - The trade dynamics shifted significantly after the US presidential election in 2016, with Brazil's exports rising to 63.14 mmt and US exports dropping to 52.86 mmt, as China's imports increased to 93.5 mmt [3] - The trade war initiated in January 2018 led to a further decline in US exports to 58.07 mmt during the 2017-2018 marketing year, while Brazil's exports surged to 76.18 mmt and China's imports reached a record high of 94.1 mmt [3]