Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

Core Insights - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing a resurgence, with China's soybean purchases exceeding 1 million tons since early October, following a trade truce between the U.S. and China [1][2][9] - The recent data indicates a significant recovery opportunity for U.S. agricultural companies, particularly those involved in soybean production, as optimism grows for agricultural exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [2][9][10] U.S. Agricultural Sector's Dependence on China - China has historically been the largest buyer of U.S. farm goods, particularly soybeans, but has recently reduced its reliance on U.S. imports due to increased tariffs and competitive pricing from other suppliers [4][5][7] - The U.S. agricultural trade deficit reached $19.7 billion from January to April 2025, marking the largest deficit for that period [6][7] - The soybean industry has been significantly impacted, with exports to China dropping to nearly zero after tariffs were raised to 34% in April 2025 [7][8] Relevance of the Recent Data - The resumption of large-scale soybean purchases by China signals a vital recovery for the U.S. agricultural sector, with state-owned Cofco Group booking nearly 20 cargoes for delivery in December and January [9][10] - The trade truce includes a commitment from China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, providing stability for the agricultural ecosystem [10] Agricultural ETFs to Watch - The improving trade outlook suggests potential recovery for agricultural equities, with specific ETFs poised to benefit from the positive trade momentum [11] - Invesco Agriculture Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBA) has a net asset value of $34.69 per share and provides exposure to various agricultural commodities, though it has lost 2.1% year to date [12] - Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB) has total net assets of $51.74 million and has gained 9.3% year to date, indicating strong performance [13] - Teucrium Agricultural Strategy No K-1 ETF (TILL) focuses on futures contracts of agricultural commodities and has a net asset value of $5.56 million, despite a year-to-date loss of 4.3% [14]

China has lifted its suspension on soybean purchases from three American suppliers, further easing tensions over agricultural trade between between Beijing and Washington https://t.co/RGIJXUh1qg ...

Trade Deal with China - President Trump declared a trade deal with China a "12 out of 10" success, leading to a surge in global indices, including a 3.2% increase in Shanghai and a 2.8% rise in Nikkei [2][3] - The deal included a rollback of US tariffs on Chinese imports from 57% to 47% and a reduction of tariffs on fentanyl-related goods from 20% to 10% [4] - China committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of US soybeans immediately for 2025, followed by 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years, initially boosting soybean futures [4] Market Reactions - Despite initial enthusiasm, analysts described the deal as a "fragile truce," with unresolved structural issues in the US-China economic rivalry [3] - US-listed Chinese tech stocks like Bilibili, Alibaba, and Baidu experienced declines in premarket trading, indicating investor skepticism [3] - Soybean futures saw a paradoxical drop of 1.32% on the same day the deal was announced, attributed to disappointment over the lack of concrete details [4] Canadian Trade Relations - President Trump announced a 10% increase in tariffs on Canadian goods, exacerbating economic challenges for Canada, which contracted by 1.6% in Q2 2025 [5] - Over 70% of Canadian small and medium-sized businesses reported negative impacts from existing tariffs, particularly in wholesale trade, transportation, and manufacturing [5] - The US Senate's symbolic vote to block Trump's tariffs on Canada is unlikely to change policy, as it is non-binding [5] Truck Tariffs - New 25% tariffs on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks took effect on November 1, 2025, benefiting domestic manufacturers like Paccar and Daimler Truck North America [6] - Paccar's CEO expressed optimism about the tariffs reducing costs for customers, while Ford's outlook improved due to the competitive landscape changing in their favor [6] Global Tariff Landscape - India's products faced a 25% tariff, pushing total duties to approximately 50%, which negatively impacted the Indian stock market and key export sectors [7] - A 100% tariff on foreign films was announced, raising concerns about potential underperformance in media and entertainment stocks due to retaliatory measures [8] Conclusion on Market Dynamics - The events of November 1, 2025, exemplified the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration's impact on global markets, characterized by contradictory policy announcements and a constant state of flux [9] - The market's response to trade deals and tariffs reflects a broader uncertainty, necessitating close monitoring of news cycles for investors [9]

Trade War & Negotiations - The US initiated an unprecedented tariff war and tech war against China, leading to retaliatory measures from China [9][10] - China views the trade tensions as necessary struggles for economic strengthening and is prepared to fight to the end [2] - The US may have overestimated its leverage and underestimated China's capacity for counteraction and strategic composure [4] - A potential meeting between the two presidents is desired by both sides, but requires improved conditions to be fruitful [6][7] - China expects the US to show good faith by scaling back the new rule implemented on September 29th [13][14] - China is prepared to walk away from negotiations if no agreement can be reached [31][32] Leverage & Retaliation - China's export control policy on rare earths is mainly a retaliation to recent US moves [20] - The soybean issue is part of China's leverage in dealing with US tariffs, and reconsideration of US agricultural product purchases is possible if tariff issues are addressed [23] US Policy & Internal Divisions - The US administration is divided between pragmatists seeking improved relations and those pushing for strategic decoupling [11][12] - The US side understands the limits of tariff control, as tariffs have been counterproductive and contributed to inflation [28][29] Future Outlook - Another extension of trade talks is expected as a minimum, with the hope of resolving the tariff issue entirely [26][27] - The business community desires a clear message from both sides to reduce uncertainty [28]

Core Insights - The US soybean industry is significantly impacted by the ongoing trade war with China, leading to unfavorable market conditions [1] Global Soybean Market Update - China is projected to import 112.0 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans during the 2025-2026 marketing year, unchanged from the previous month and an increase of 5.5 mmt from 2024-2025 [2] - Brazil's soybean exports for the 2025-2026 marketing year are also estimated at 112.0 mmt, unchanged from last month and up 9.9 mmt from 2024-2025, which would surpass Brazil's previous record of 104.17 mmt from 2023-2024 [2] - The USDA estimates US soybean exports at 45.86 mmt for 2025-2026, a decrease of 0.54 mmt from last month and down 5.17 mmt from 2024-2025, marking the lowest export figure since 2019-2020 [2] Historical Context - In the 2014-2015 marketing year, Brazil and the US were nearly even in exports, with Brazil at 50.61 mmt and the US at 50.14 mmt, while China imported 78.35 mmt [3] - The following year, Brazil's exports increased to 54.38 mmt, while US exports fell to 52.86 mmt, as China's imports rose to 83.23 mmt [3] - The trade dynamics shifted significantly after the US presidential election in 2016, with Brazil's exports rising to 63.14 mmt and US exports dropping to 52.86 mmt, as China's imports increased to 93.5 mmt [3] - The trade war initiated in January 2018 led to a further decline in US exports to 58.07 mmt during the 2017-2018 marketing year, while Brazil's exports surged to 76.18 mmt and China's imports reached a record high of 94.1 mmt [3]