Here's a quiz question for you. Which S&P 500 company delivered the highest stock gains, percentage- wise, in 2025? The correct answer isn't NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), believe it or not. In actuality, the winner is a company that most investors don't think about very often. At the same time, it's a technology hardware firm that's benefiting from a wave of interest in memory chip stocks. So now, it's time to reveal last year's S&P 500 top performer. Along with that, we'll consider whether this stock could stage a ...

Meta says it can't keep its latest AI glasses on shelves. The Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses, which came out in the fall of last year, have waitlists that extend well into 2026, the company said in a blog post on Tuesday. Due to the "unprecedented" demand for the specs, Meta said it would be pausing its planned expansion to the UK, France, Italy, and Canada, which was originally scheduled for early 2026."The demand has been much higher than we anticipated," Meta's chief technology officer, Andrew Bosworth, s ...

Alex Wang, CFA +852 2123 2613 alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA +852 2123 2660 shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Ethan Xu +852 2123 2634 ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com As 2025 comes to a close, we've highlighted 10 notes from this year that stood out for their depth and perspective - and that we believe remain relevant as we head into 2026. To our readers: Thank you for the support and the many engaging discussions throughout the year. Happy holidays, and see you in 2026! See the Disclosure Appendix of this ...

Accessible version Last month, long-only funds' largest share purchases globally were TSMC, Rocket Companies, Apple, Tencent, and Robinhood Markets. In contrast, funds selling was for Meta, Naspers, NVIDIA, SanDisk, and JPMorgan Chase. The most well held stocks globally by long-only funds are TSMC (91%), SRM (88%), Microsoft (84%), NVIDIA (73%), Amazon (73%), and Tencent (72%). Crowded Positives and Crowded Negatives Analysis shows "Crowded Positives" (high ownership + positive Triple Momentum) tend to outp ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase is launching a $1.5 trillion investment initiative aimed at enhancing national security and reducing reliance on foreign suppliers over the next decade [1][4] - The initiative is supported by a high-profile advisory panel including tech billionaires and former government officials, which will guide investment decisions [2][6] - Jamie Dimon has emphasized the importance of national resilience and the risks posed by foreign dependencies, particularly from China [3] Investment Strategy - The $1.5 trillion investment will encompass loans, underwriting, and various investments over the next ten years [4] - A new $10 billion fund will be established to support companies focused on sensitive technologies, including advanced chips, AI, and critical minerals [2] Advisory Panel Composition - The advisory panel is chaired by Jamie Dimon and includes notable figures such as Jeff Bezos, Condoleezza Rice, Michael Dell, and Robert Gates [2][6] - The panel will meet periodically to provide insights on investment strategies, although it holds no formal authority [5] Previous Initiatives - Dimon has previously set ambitious targets, including a $2.5 trillion climate-finance pledge, which has seen limited progress [5] - JPMorgan has already made an investment in Perpetua Resources, a mining firm focused on antimony production, highlighting the bank's commitment to securing critical resources [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The financial industry in Hong Kong is experiencing significant growth, being the largest economic sector in the region. This growth is expected to be supported by lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, potentially leading to a new reflationary cycle [5][2][3]. Market Outlook - The year-end target for MSCI HK (US$) for 2026 is set at 12,300, based on a forward P/E of 15.0x and an estimated EPS growth of 9% per annum for 2026 and 2027 [5][4]. - The upside scenario projects an index level of 13,700, while the downside scenario estimates a level of 9,800 [4]. Preferred Stocks - **Most Preferred Stocks**: - AIA Group: Market Cap of US$111 billion, current price of 82.1, target price of 88.0, rated as Buy with a potential upside of 7% [6]. - Futu: Market Cap of US$24 billion, current price of 169.6, target price of 231.0, rated as Buy with a potential upside of 36% [6]. - Galaxy Entertainment: Market Cap of US$22 billion, current price of 39.7, target price of 46.9, rated as Buy with a potential upside of 18% [6]. - **Least Preferred Stocks**: - MTRCL: Market Cap of US$25 billion, current price of 31.3, target price of 24.0, rated as Sell with a potential downside of 23% [6]. Performance Metrics - The MSCI HK index has shown a year-to-date return of 79%, with significant contributions from major players like HKEX and AIA [9][14]. - The performance of various sectors indicates that diversified financials, insurance, and banks are expected to benefit from increased exchange turnover and growing demands in asset and wealth management products [5][12]. Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of increased southbound flows into Hong Kong equities, indicating a growing interest from international investors [24][25]. - The financial sector's performance is expected to improve leasing demand for office spaces, benefiting landlords [5]. Valuation Insights - The current valuation multiples suggest a forward P/E of 15.0x for the MSCI HK, with an earnings yield of 6.7% and an assumed equity risk premium (ERP) of 2.7% [4][5]. - The analysis indicates that the financial sector is trading at a premium compared to other sectors, reflecting investor confidence in its growth potential [43][44]. Conclusion - The outlook for Hong Kong's financial sector remains positive, driven by macroeconomic factors and strong performance from key companies. Investors are encouraged to consider the preferred stocks listed, as they are positioned to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the industry [5][6][12].

Core Insights - December is historically a strong month for the S&P 500, averaging a 1.4% gain since 1950, with a 73% chance of finishing higher [1][2] Seasonal Performance of Stocks - Carnival Corp. has an average December gain of 5.4% over the last 30 years, with a 67% winning rate, peaking in 1998 with a 39.1% increase [4] - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. averages a 4.4% gain in December, with a 57% winning rate, and its best performance was a 46% jump in 2008 [5] - Western Digital Corp. shows a 4.66% average gain in December, with a 67% winning rate, and its standout year was 2001 with a 33.1% surge [6] - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC has an average December gain of 4.2% since 2002, with a 64% winning rate, and its best December was in 2012 with a 21.2% gain [7] - Mohawk Industries Inc. enjoys a 4.1% average gain in December, with a 60% winning rate, and its best December was in 2008 with a 39.79% rally [8] - Eli Lilly & Co. averages a 3.1% gain in December, ranking as its third-best month, with a peak of 17.9% in 2008 [9] - Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has a 3% average December gain since 1999, with its best performance in 2000 at 30.2% [10] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. posts a 2.5% average gain in December, with a 57% winning rate, and its best run was a 23.2% jump in 2000 [11] Summary Table of Key Stocks | Stock Name | December Average Gain | Winning Rate | YTD Gain/Loss (Dec. 1, 2025) | |---------------------------|-----------------------|--------------|-------------------------------| | Carnival Corp. | 5.4% | 67% | +2.39% | | Western Digital Corp. | 4.66% | 67% | +251.7% | | Royal Caribbean Cruises | 4.4% | 57% | +16.2% | | Seagate Technology | 4.2% | 64% | +215% | | Mohawk Industries | 4.1% | 60% | -0.3% | | Eli Lilly | 3.1% | 57% | +35.8% | | Goldman Sachs Group | 3% | 62% | +41% | | JPMorgan Chase | 2.5% | 57% | +28.8% | [12]

Summary of TMT Overview and Key Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Global Technology and Communication Services (TMT) sectors, highlighting their performance and outlook for 2026 [2][5][20]. Core Insights 1. **Performance Metrics**: - Both Global Technology and Global Communication Services sectors have increased by 20% over the past year, outperforming all other global sectors [5][20]. - CFROI (Cash Flow Return on Investment) and Economic Profit for both sectors are projected to reach all-time highs, with nearly 15% for Technology and 8% for Communication Services in 2026 [20][21]. 2. **Valuation Levels**: - Technology sector valuations are considered elevated, while Communication Services present more attractive valuation levels [4][13]. - Global Technology is trading at a lower market implied yield compared to the overall market, indicating a more expensive valuation [13][16]. 3. **Sector-Specific Trends**: - **Hyperscalers**: Significant increases in CapEx (Capital Expenditures) and R&D (Research and Development) spending are expected, with CapEx forecasted to double over the next two years and R&D spending to increase by 40% [35]. - **AI Landscape**: The AI Winners basket has risen by approximately 45% this year, while the AI Risk basket has declined by around 30%, leading to a decade-high valuation premium for AI Winners [52][71]. - **Semiconductors**: The sector is expected to achieve a CFROI of 25% in 2026, driven by higher margins and demand from the AI revolution [78][87]. 4. **Economic Profit**: - Economic Profit for hyperscalers is forecasted to reach an all-time high of $400 billion in 2026, primarily driven by growth [48][50]. 5. **Market Implied Sales Growth**: - AI Winners are priced for double-digit sales growth over the next decade, contrasting with low-single digit growth for many AI Risk firms [73][100]. Additional Important Insights - **Tech Hardware**: The industry has maintained a stable CFROI of around 8% and is expected to improve to 10% in 2026, despite trading at a discount to the broader tech sector [122]. - **Software Sector**: The median 10-year sales growth CAGR for high-quality software companies is priced at 11%, with some firms like PLTR priced for growth as high as 27% [109][110]. - **Valuation vs Momentum**: A matrix contextualizes valuation and momentum, indicating firms in the top right offer both attractive valuations and strong momentum profiles [104]. This comprehensive overview highlights the robust performance and evolving dynamics within the TMT sectors, emphasizing the potential investment opportunities and risks associated with these industries.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the **China & Hong Kong equity market** with a specific outlook for **2026** and investment strategies for **1Q26** [2][5]. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Constructive Stance on MXCN/CSI300**: The report maintains a positive outlook on MXCN and CSI300, predicting further rallies in 2026 with targets set at **100** for MXCN, **5,200** for CSI300, and **16,000** for MXHK, based on consensus EPS estimates [2][7][9]. 2. **Investment Themes for 2026**: - **Anti-involution**: Expected to accelerate post-March NPC, improving margins and ROE for MXCN/CSI300 [5]. - **AI Infrastructure Growth**: Strong global capex in AI is anticipated to boost demand for computing power and localization plays in China [5]. - **Global Macro Support**: Positive macroeconomic conditions, including easing fiscal and monetary policies in developed markets, are expected to enhance overseas sales [5]. - **K-shaped Recovery in Consumption**: This will favor food & beverage and premium luxury sectors while negatively impacting mid-tier consumption [5]. 3. **Risks Identified**: - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Ongoing tensions between the US and China, particularly ahead of the US mid-term elections, and rising tensions with Japan [5]. - **Consensus EPS Growth Concerns**: Potential downward revisions in consensus EPS growth for MXCN from approximately **15%** to **9%** due to intense competition in quick commerce platforms [5]. - **Property Market Weakness**: Reports of declining luxury sales and price drops in mainland China may trigger policy changes [5]. Sector Recommendations and Top Picks 1. **Under-owned China Equity**: The report suggests that China equity is under-owned both domestically and internationally, indicating potential for increased allocation [6]. 2. **Sector Preferences**: - **Overweight (OW)**: Communication Services, IT, Materials, and Staples. - **Underweight (UW)**: Energy and Utilities [6][12]. 3. **Top Picks for 1Q26**: - **China**: Baidu, NetEase, Midea, MIXUE, PDD, Pop Mart, Trip.com, Tingyi, Futu, Innovent, CATL, COLI. - **Hong Kong**: AIA, HKEX, Futu, Galaxy, MGM China, Techtronic, Link REITs, MTR, China State Construction International [6][13][15]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Valuation Normalization**: Since September 2024, MXCN/CSI300 has shown a return of **29%/30%** in USD terms, indicating a shift from a valuation discount to a more favorable investment narrative [20]. - **EPS Recovery**: The report highlights a broadening recovery in earnings across various sectors despite weak headline EPS growth, with significant recoveries noted in Healthcare, IT, and Communication Services [41][42]. - **Quantitative Macro Indicator (QMI)**: The JPM China QMI indicates an expansion phase, suggesting positive momentum in the market [47]. Conclusion The report presents a comprehensive outlook for the China and Hong Kong equity markets, emphasizing potential growth areas, sector preferences, and the importance of monitoring geopolitical risks and market dynamics as 2026 approaches.

Group 1: Market Overview - The holiday season has positively impacted market gains, with the market advancing for a third consecutive day on November 26, 2025 [1] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is significantly low at 17, down 27% over the last week, indicating reduced investor anxiety [2] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, driven by a notable increase in Robinhood's stock, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also recorded gains of 0.8% and 0.7% respectively [8] Group 2: Robinhood's Market Activity - Robinhood's stock has surged by 244% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest [3] - The company has acquired a 90% stake in MIAX, a financial exchanges platform, in partnership with Susquehanna, enhancing its position in the predictions market [4] - Following the acquisition news, Robinhood's stock rose by 11%, contributing to its overall 245% year-to-date rally [5] Group 3: Predictions Market Insights - The predictions market, which gained traction during the 2024 Presidential elections, now constitutes approximately 3-8% of the US sports betting market, with Kalshi being the leading player [5] - The overall sports betting market could exceed $1 trillion, presenting significant growth opportunities for Robinhood amid regulatory considerations [6] - Robinhood is actively exploring future partnership opportunities to develop products tailored to its customers' needs [6]