21 November 2025 | 11:26PM HKT Portfolio Strategy Research CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART Markets dropped 4-5% on global risk off; We introduced 15th Five-Year Plan Portfolio MXCN/CSI300 dropped 5.5%/3.8% this week amid selloff in global equities. Offshore Internet underperformed (HSTECH -7.2%). Premier Li met with Russian President Putin in Moscow on Nov 18. China warned its citizens against Japan travel as the bilateral diplomatic tension escalated. The US FOMC minutes showed "strong differing views" about the Co ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese equity market, particularly aligned with the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) [3][40]. Core Insights - The 15th FYP emphasizes high-quality, secure, and balanced growth, with a focus on technology, innovation, and improving people's livelihoods as key priorities for 2026-2030 [1][12]. - Historical analysis shows that aligning investment strategies with the FYP can yield significant alpha, with a potential 13% annualized alpha if portfolios are aligned with policy trends [2][18]. - The report identifies a universe of 35 GICS3 Industries that are expected to benefit from policy support, representing a total market cap of US$13 trillion, which is 66% of the full universe [3][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Performance and Policy Alignment - MSCI China and CSI300 have delivered 8-10% total return CAGR since the 10th FYP, trailing nominal GDP growth of 11% [2][18]. - The report highlights that specific sectors mentioned in the 14th FYP significantly outperformed the benchmark, with average returns of 41% compared to -3% for the CSI300 [24][25]. 2. 15th FYP Portfolio Construction - The report screens for 50 mid-cap stocks across 21 sub-sectors, which have returned 68% in the past year, outperforming MSCI China by 33 percentage points [4][54]. - These stocks are expected to deliver a 30% EPS CAGR over the next two years, compared to 15% for MSCI China, indicating strong growth potential [4][54]. 3. Key Themes and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment themes, including the return of private-owned enterprises (POEs), Going Global, AI, Anti-Involution, and Shareholder Returns, which are expected to outperform in a slower market [3][40]. - Emerging technologies such as 6G, bio-manufacturing, and hydrogen/nuclear fusion are highlighted as new areas of focus in the 15th FYP [12][15]. 4. Sectoral Analysis - The selected industries predominantly reside in Technology, Consumer, and Materials sectors, with a strong emphasis on tech-related industries expected to receive policy support [40][41]. - The report notes that the 15th FYP universe is expected to grow faster than the broader market, with higher profitability and growth capex intensity [40][39].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has issued downgrades for Dell, HP, and HP Enterprise due to rising memory costs and weakening demand for non-hardware products, while maintaining a bullish outlook on the memory sector [1][3][5]. Summary by Category Market Reaction - Dell, HP, and HPE stocks are down between 3% and 7% following the downgrades from Morgan Stanley [1][2]. - Dell experienced a double downgrade, leading to a decline of over 7% in its stock price [6]. Downgrade Details - Dell's price target was reduced from $144 to $110, with concerns over increased memory costs and a shift towards AI servers impacting margins [6][7]. - HP's rating was downgraded from equal weight to underweight, with a price target decrease from $26 to $24, citing potential margin compression despite a possible PC refresh cycle [7][8]. - HPE's rating was adjusted from overweight to equal weight, with a price target reduction from $28 to $25, acknowledging rising component costs as a profitability constraint [8][9]. Industry Trends - The memory sector is experiencing a "super cycle," with ND and DRAM spot prices increasing by 50% to 300% over the past six months, which is expected to impact hardware companies' earnings in 2026 [3][4]. - Historically, hardware OEMs face gross margin compression 6 to 12 months after memory costs rise, with expectations for this trend to affect earnings in 2026, contrary to previous forecasts of slight expansion [4][5].

Group 1 - Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) reported its Q1 FY26 results, leading to a significant decline in stock price from approximately $50.60 per share to $41.30 per share during intra-trading [2] - The decline in SMCI's stock price indicates a negative market reaction to the earnings report, which may suggest underlying issues or disappointing performance [2] - Tech Stock Pros, a team of former technology sector engineers, provides institutional-level company research to individual investors, focusing on demystifying technology sector investments [2] Group 2 - Tech Contrarians, an investing group, has achieved a realized return of 65.8% on closed positions since inception, offering exclusive insights and portfolio consultations [1] - The group utilizes a live portfolio with quarterly updates and bi-weekly newsletters to keep investors informed about high-focus stocks [1] - The services provided by Tech Contrarians aim to enhance individual investors' understanding and engagement in the technology sector [1]

Core Insights - Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $3.88 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.75, marking an 11.2% increase from $3.49 per share in the same quarter last year [1][9] - Total revenues reached $1.32 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.31 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 5.2% driven by strong performance in the Enterprise Visibility & Mobility and Asset Intelligence & Tracking segments [2][9] Financial Performance - Revenues from the Asset Intelligence & Tracking segment increased by 11% year over year to $455 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $426 million, with organic net sales rising by 10.6% [3] - The Enterprise Visibility & Mobility segment reported revenues of $865 million, a 2.4% increase year over year, though it fell short of the consensus estimate of $887 million, with organic net sales growing by 2% [4] Margin and Expenses - Zebra Technologies' cost of sales for the third quarter was $686 million, up 6.9% year over year, while total operating expenses also increased by 6.9% to $451 million [5] - The company reported a net income of $101 million, down from $137 million in the same period last year [5] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - At the end of the third quarter, Zebra Technologies had cash and cash equivalents of $1,053 million, an increase from $901 million at the end of December 2024, while long-term debt rose to $2.11 billion from $2.09 billion [6] - In the first nine months of 2025, the company generated net cash of $560 million from operating activities, down from $707 million in the previous year, with free cash flow amounting to $504 million compared to $666 million in the year-ago period [7] Guidance - For the fourth quarter of 2025, Zebra Technologies expects net sales to increase between 8-11% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA margin anticipated at approximately 22% and adjusted earnings per share projected in the range of $4.20-$4.40 [8] - For the full year 2025, the company has raised its adjusted earnings outlook to $15.80 per share from the previous range of $15.25-$15.75, with an expected net sales growth of 8% year over year [9][10]

Key Takeaways Zebra Technologies will release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, before market open.Growth in Enterprise Visibility and Asset Intelligence segments likely boosted Q3 revenues.Higher raw material costs and a strong dollar may have pressured ZBRA's bottom line.Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA) is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 29, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.31 billion, which indicates growth of 4.4% from the year- ...

Market Overview - Asian stocks experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, influenced by disappointing earnings from major tech companies and renewed geopolitical concerns due to U.S. sanctions against Russia and potential export controls on China [1][2][3] - The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell by 0.4%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.5% [1] Geopolitical Impact - U.S. sanctions targeting Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil led to a 3% surge in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $64.41 per barrel [1][5] - The sanctions are expected to negatively impact Asian economies, which are primarily net energy importers, potentially inhibiting growth and contributing to inflation [6] Sector Performance - Chinese stocks fell by as much as 1.1% amid concerns over potential U.S. software export restrictions to China, which are seen as a retaliation against China's rare earth export limitations [2][3] - South Korean stocks declined by 0.7%, particularly affecting tech hardware manufacturers, while the Bank of Korea maintained interest rates as anticipated [4] Corporate Earnings - The global equity markets are retreating from record highs as the corporate earnings season begins, with many companies reporting results that beat analysts' estimates despite some megacaps disappointing investors [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Equity Strategy - **Context**: The call discusses the impact of reemerging US-China trade tensions on the Chinese stock market, particularly in October 2025, highlighting potential volatility in major indexes such as HSI, CSI300, and MSCI China [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Tensions**: Recent announcements of significant new trade restrictions by both China and the US have raised concerns about market volatility [1][2]. - **Sector Vulnerability**: Sectors heavily reliant on US exports, including communications infrastructure, tech hardware, solar equipment, and semiconductors, are identified as particularly vulnerable to these trade tensions [1][3]. - **Defensive Sectors**: In contrast, domestic yield plays are viewed as more defensive and less exposed to trade risks [1][2]. - **Valuation Outlook**: Despite current tensions, the outlook for PRC/HK markets remains constructive over a 12-month horizon due to undemanding valuations [1][7]. Specific Data Points - **Rare Earths Policy**: China's new export controls on rare earth-related items require exporters to obtain licenses, affecting industries such as semiconductors and electric vehicles. China produces nearly 70% of global rare earths and controls over 90% of refining capacity [2][3]. - **US Tariff Impact**: The US has announced a 100% tariff on all products from China, which could escalate if China does not retract its rare earth restrictions [2][3]. - **Profit Exposure**: - Communications infrastructure companies like Innolight and Eoptolink derive 90-95% of their earnings from US exports [3][6]. - Tech hardware firms such as T&S Comm and WUS have 40-85% of their earnings from US exports [3][6]. - Solar equipment companies like Jinko and JA Solar generate 60-70% of their profits from US markets [3][6]. - Semiconductor firms TFME, JCET, and TSHT have 20-70% of their profits from US exports [3][6]. Additional Important Information - **Market Valuations**: Current valuations for major indexes are slightly above historical means, with HSI at a forward PER of 11.3x and PB of 1.3x, CSI300 at 14.6x PER and 1.6x PB, and MSCI China at 12.8x PER and 1.5x PB [7]. - **Target Index Levels**: The HSI Index targets are set at 26,800 by the end of 2025, 27,500 by mid-2026, and 28,800 by the end of 2026 [7]. - **Company Strategies**: Companies are adapting to potential tariff increases by relocating production to countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, and some are passing on tariff costs to consumers [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese equity market amidst ongoing trade tensions.

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive [7] Core Insights - The MS Capex Tracker indicates that US next twelve months (NTM) capital expenditure intentions have accelerated to +20% through Q3, up from +10% at the start of the year, primarily driven by Data Center investments [3][4] - The report highlights a significant positive rate of change in capital expenditure, particularly from US Hyperscalers, which aligns with the "Data Center vs Everything Else" theme [3] - There is potential for manufacturing capital expenditure to increase further into 2026 due to improved tariff policies, supporting the $10 trillion reshoring thesis [3][4] - The report identifies key companies well-positioned for growth, including Trane Technologies (TT), Eaton Corporation (ETN), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Vertiv Holdings (VRT), Rockwell Automation (ROK), and Acuity Inc. (AYI) [3] Summary by Relevant Categories Capital Expenditure Trends - NTM capital expenditure leaders include Hyperscalers (+78%), Tech Hardware (+20%), Utilities (+18%), and Aerospace (+12%) [9] - Laggards in capital expenditure include IT (-14%), Chemicals (-9%), Automotive (-7%), Food & Beverage (-6%), Semiconductors (-4%), and Energy (-3%) [9] Rate of Change in Capital Expenditure - The rate of change for NTM capital expenditure shows leaders such as Hyperscalers (+38%) and Tech Hardware (+20%), while laggards include Chemicals (-16%) and IT (-16%) [12]

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency exchanges experienced a rally as Bitcoin prices increased following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] - The SEC approved rule changes that facilitate easier listings of cryptocurrency ETFs, positively impacting market sentiment [1] - Newly IPO'd Bullish led the gains after its quarterly report, while Coinbase and Gemini also saw significant price increases [1] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled to gain traction, with Apple shares declining after its iPhone event [2] - Gemini's IPO saw a strong debut on Nasdaq, although it closed below its highs [4] - Coinbase rebounded from a significant 19% drop, raising questions about its current investment potential [4]