27 June 2025 | 4:44PM EDT US Weekly Kickstart Look for early impact of tariffs during 2Q 2025 earnings season David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-774 ...

事态的发展按照我的推演，当下可以判断：基本上不会再恶化了。 回到市场，开盘给了很好的低吸机会，全天下来，指数上涨 11.73 ， 3559 只个股飘红，平均股价上涨 0.7% ，体感还是蛮不错的。 昨天文章提前给了本周的明确判断： 周末 以色列和伊朗打仗，看空 A 股的人很多， 今天让他们失望了 。 昨天还在嚷嚷，要封锁霍尔木兹海峡的伊朗，今天马上服软，自己准备了一份协议，保证不拥有核武器。 以色列也就坡下驴，说如果伊朗接受美国拆除其核计划的要求，自己愿意停止行动。 双方都为停手给出了自己的态度。 最根本的原因还是我说的那样： 从这三篇的关系来看，高盛的逻辑还是挺清晰的，第一篇《形势已变》，表明整体大环境已有改善；第二 篇《为何民营企业愈发壮大》分析具体原因，第三篇也是市场流传热度最高的一篇《十大领军企业的崛 起》落在了具体投资方向上。 我们分开一个一个看。 首先是大环境。 自 2021 年初的高点以来，中国民营上市公司一共蒸发掉了 4 万亿美元的市值，相对于国央企来说，差距 更是达到 56% ，可以说是相当惨了。 大家都知道民企对经济的重要性，就拿去年来说， 60% 的 GDP 、 80% 的城市就业岗位以 ...

15 June 2025 | 7:44PM HKT China Strategy The comeback of Chinese POEs (Part 1): The tide has turned After losing almost US$4tn of market cap and underperforming the SOE sector by 56pp (cum dividends) since late 2020, Chinese private-owned enterprises (POEs), which represent 60% of the entire listed universe by market value, are in the process of regaining their "mojo" in the equity market. Key arguments are: While the beta story has improved, we believe selectivity is still required for success in the broad ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the tech hardware and semiconductors sector, including ASE, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, and TSMC, among others [8]. Core Insights - The outlook for AI adoption remains strong, with significant momentum in enterprise AI, leading to supply constraints for major customers [2][3]. - TSMC aims to double its CoWoS capacity year-over-year in 2025, despite facing gross profit margin dilution due to overseas expansion [3]. - Samsung reports robust memory demand, particularly from PC and smartphone sectors, supporting DDR pricing [4]. - The report highlights a value bias within the APAC tech sector, indicating a preference for certain stocks over others [5]. Summary by Sections AI and Technology Hardware - AI-related developments are driving enterprise adoption, with Microsoft noting strong demand from large customers [2]. - The ramp-up of Blackwell rack assembly is on track, with Quanta expecting to meet server test cycle targets by the end of Q2 2025 [2]. Semiconductor Industry - TSMC's gross margin is negatively impacted by NTD appreciation against USD, with a 40-basis point decline for every 1% appreciation [3]. - MediaTek maintains its Q2 gross margin guidance at 47% despite foreign exchange pressures [3]. - ASE targets $1.6 billion in revenue from advanced packaging and testing in 2025, up from $600 million in 2024 [30]. Market Dynamics - Samsung anticipates strong demand for memory products, which is expected to support pricing in the DDR segment [4]. - The report notes a potential decline in revenue for certain ICs, indicating a cooling off from earlier pull-ins [3]. Company-Specific Insights - ASE is focused on expanding its advanced packaging and testing business, targeting significant revenue growth [30]. - MediaTek is aggressively pursuing the N2 process migration, with expectations of reaching $1 billion in cloud ASIC revenue by 2026 [39]. - Quanta's server business is expected to grow, with AI servers making up a significant portion of sales [24]. Preferred Companies - The report lists preferred companies in the APAC tech sector, highlighting those with strong growth potential and favorable valuations [8].

13 May 2025 | 1:50AM HKT Taiwan Strategy Dividend ETF Rebalancing Update We highlighted in late April that dividend ETFs have become significant in the Taiwan market, reaching a total AUM of US$62bn or 4.0%/5.7% of Taiwan ex-TSMC full/free float market cap currently. The upcoming rebalancing for dividend ETFs during May-June is important for investors to monitor, as it will drive flows and volatility for stocks to be included or excluded, or having their weights adjusted. This provides investors with opport ...

Global Markets Strategy 27 Apr 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China/HK Equity Strategy Dashboard | Wendy Liu AC | | --- | | (852) 2800 1087 | | wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com | | J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/J.P. Morgan | | B ...

Global Markets Strategy 21 Apr 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China/HK Equity Strategy Dashboard | Wendy Liu AC | | --- | | (852) 2800 1087 | | wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com | | J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/J.P. Morgan | | B ...