BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call August 22, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Representatives Laura L. Felice - Executive VP & CFO Robert W. Eddy - President, CEO & Chairman William C. Werner - Executive Vice President of Strategy & Development Conference Call Participants Edward Joseph Kelly - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Katharine Amanda McShane - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division Mark David Carden - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Mic ...

Photo by Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesLightRocket via Getty ImagesBJ's Wholesale Club Holdings stock (NYSE: BJ) is scheduled to announce its fiscal second-quarter results on Friday, August 22, 2025. Analysts project earnings of $1.09 per share on revenue of $5.48 billion, indicating no change in earnings year-over-year and a 5% rise in sales compared to the previous year's $1.09 per share and $5.21 billion in revenue. Historically, BJ’s stock has increased after earnings announ ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Visa is a payment processor in the financial sector, collecting small fees for facilitating transactions via its branded cards [2] - Costco operates as a warehouse club retailer and issues credit cards within the Visa system, charging an annual membership fee for shopping [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Visa processed 60.7 billion transactions, a 9% year-over-year increase, resulting in a revenue of $9.6 billion, also up 9% [3] - Costco's revenue in the fiscal Q3 2025 increased by 8% to nearly $62 billion, with membership fees contributing significantly to operating income [5] Group 3: Growth Potential - Both Visa and Costco are well-managed companies with strong growth prospects; Visa benefits from the shift to digital transactions, while Costco is expanding its store base due to high demand [6] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Both companies are currently considered expensive, with Visa's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio about 5% above its five-year average, while Costco's is approximately 25% above [9][10] - Visa's dividend yield is 0.7%, and Costco's is less than 0.6%, indicating limited income generation for value investors [8] Group 5: Investment Considerations - Visa appears to be the better value option compared to Costco for growth investors, given its relatively lower valuation metrics [10] - Caution is advised for investors, as economic downturns could negatively impact both companies [12]

Core Insights - The stock market is experiencing a dual trend of excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) and stock splits, with stock splits gaining significant attention [1][2] Stock Split Overview - A stock split allows a company to adjust its share price and outstanding share count without affecting its market capitalization or operational performance [2] - Reverse splits are generally viewed negatively by investors, often associated with struggling companies trying to avoid delisting [3] - Forward splits are favored by investors as they make shares more affordable, potentially leading to better operational performance [5] Historical Performance - Companies that have executed forward splits since 1980 have averaged a 25.4% return in the year following the announcement, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 11.9% average return over the same period [6] Potential Candidates for Stock Splits - Costco and Netflix are being considered as potential candidates for stock splits in 2025, with Costco's share price nearing $1,000 and Netflix's around $1,300 [8][10] - Both companies have not conducted a stock split in many years, raising investor interest [9][10] Costco's Position - Costco's management does not currently see the necessity for a stock split, citing the prevalence of fractional-share purchases as a reason [12][14] - The company will continue to evaluate the situation but has no immediate plans for a split [13][15] Netflix's Position - Netflix is unlikely to announce a stock split due to the high percentage of shares held by institutional investors (80.2%), who do not require lower nominal prices [17][18] - Retail investor ownership at nearly 20% is not low enough to create urgency for a split, unlike other companies with even lower retail ownership [19]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported net sales of **$20.97 billion** for the month, representing an increase of **6.8%** from **$19.64 billion** in the same period last year [3] Sales Performance - Comparable sales results for the month were as follows: - **U.S.**: **4.1%** - **Canada**: **3.3%** - **Other International**: **6.6%** - **Total Company**: **4.3%** - **E-commerce**: **11.6%** [3] - When excluding impacts from changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange, comparable sales were: - **U.S.**: **5.5%** - **Canada**: **6.3%** - **Other International**: **8.4%** - **Total Company**: **6%** - **E-commerce**: **12%** [4] Traffic and Transaction Insights - Comparable traffic or frequency increased by **3.4%** worldwide and **2.8%** in the U.S. [4] - The average worldwide selling price per gallon of gas decreased by approximately **10.4%** year-over-year [5] - Average transaction value increased by **0.9%**, and when excluding gas deflation and foreign exchange, it was up **2.5%** [5] Regional Performance - Strongest comparable sales in the U.S. were observed in the **Northwest**, **Midwest**, and **Los Angeles** regions [6] - Internationally, the best results were in **Mexico**, **Taiwan**, and **Korea** [6] Merchandising Highlights - Foods and sundries showed positive mid to high single-digit growth, with strong performance in: - **Cooler** - **Candy** - **Frozen Foods** - Fresh foods increased by high single digits, particularly in: - **Meat** - **Bakery** - Non-foods also performed well with mid single-digit growth, especially in: - **Jewelry** - **Majors** - **Gift Cards** - Ancillary business sales declined by low to mid single digits, while pharmacy, optical, and hearing aid departments were top performers [7][8] Challenges and Risks - The negative impact of foreign currencies on total and comparable sales was approximately: - **Canada**: **-1.6%** - **Other International**: **-1.0%** - **Total Company**: **-0.4%** [5] - Gas price deflation negatively impacted total reported comparable sales by approximately **-1.3%** [5] - The negative impact of cannibalization was approximately **-70 basis points** for the company in May [6] Future Outlook - The upcoming June reporting period will include five weeks, starting from June 2 and ending July 6, compared to the previous year's five weeks from June 3 to July 7 [8]

Core Insights - BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. reported mixed results for Q1 of fiscal 2025, with revenues below expectations but earnings exceeding them, supported by modest growth in comparable club sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.14, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 91 cents and increasing from 85 cents in the previous year [2]. - Total revenues reached $5,153.5 million, a 4.8% increase year over year, but fell short of the consensus estimate of $5,179 million [2]. - Net sales increased by 4.7% to $5,033.1 million, while membership fee income rose 8.1% to $120.4 million [2]. Comparable Sales - Total comparable club sales increased by 1.6% year over year, with a 3.9% increase when excluding gasoline sales, outperforming the estimate of 3.7% [3]. - Robust traffic contributed 2.5 percentage points to comparable sales growth, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of growth [3]. - Digitally enabled comparable sales surged by 35% during the quarter [3]. Expansion Plans - BJ's Wholesale Club continued its expansion by adding five new clubs and four new gas stations, with a target of 25 to 30 new club openings over the next two fiscal years [4]. Margin Analysis - Gross profit increased to $969.5 million from $883.4 million year over year, with the merchandise gross margin rate expanding by 30 basis points [5]. - Operating income rose by 26.7% year over year to $203.6 million, and the operating margin expanded by 70 basis points to 4% [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 20.9% to $285.8 million, with the adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 70 basis points to 5.5% [6]. Expense Overview - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose by 5.4% year over year to $760.9 million, reflecting higher labor and occupancy costs due to new openings [7]. Financial Snapshot - At the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents stood at $39.5 million, with long-term debt at $398.9 million and stockholders' equity at $1,971.6 million [8]. - Net cash provided by operating activities was $208.1 million, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $67.6 million for the 13 weeks ended May 3, 2025 [8]. - The company repurchased 55,000 shares worth $6.2 million during the quarter [8]. Guidance - BJ's Wholesale Club expects fiscal 2025 comparable club sales, excluding gasoline sales, to increase between 2% and 3.5% year over year [9]. - Management guided adjusted earnings per share to be between $4.10 and $4.30, compared to $4.05 reported for fiscal 2024 [9]. - Capital expenditures are anticipated to be around $800 million for fiscal 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. is expected to report an increase in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by strategic investments and a value-driven model [1][2][3]. Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BJ's revenue is $5.18 billion, reflecting a 5.2% increase from the previous year [1]. - Merchandise comparable club sales are anticipated to rise by 3.7% for the quarter [4]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is stable at 91 cents, indicating a 7.1% year-over-year increase [2]. - BJ's has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12%, with the last quarter exceeding estimates by 6.9% [3]. Membership Growth - The company has consistently grown its member base, supported by strong renewal rates and upgrades to higher-tier memberships [3]. - Membership fee income is projected to increase by 7.7% for the quarter [3]. Strategic Initiatives - BJ's Fresh 2.0 initiative has improved produce quality and merchandising, enhancing member engagement and visit frequency [4]. - The company is focusing on better pricing, private-label offerings, and digital solutions to drive sales [4]. Challenges - Consumer spending remains cautious, potentially impacting discretionary categories [5]. - SG&A expenses are expected to increase by 5.4% year-over-year, which may affect margins [5]. - Competition from traditional grocers and warehouse clubs could pressure BJ's pricing power [5]. Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model indicates a likely earnings beat for BJ's, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.77% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [6][7].