在假期季节性扰动下，美国劳工市场整体仍维持在"温和波动"的区间内。初请失业金人数有所下降，扭转了前一周的激增趋势。 截至12月6日当周，续请失业救济人数升至189.7万，好于市场预期的193万，对应的4周均值为190.2万，前值由183.8万人修正为183万人。 这一人数在感恩节当周大幅下滑后出现小幅反弹，但仍明显低于近期高点，意味着招聘疲软正导致部分失业者面临较长时间的失业期，该指标通常被视为衡 量招聘情况的一个代理指标。参保失业率（IUR，季调）维持在1.2%不变。 最新数据显示，美国12月13日当周首次申请失业救济人数降至22.4万人，较前一周23.7万回落1.3万，低于经济学家预期的22.5万人。同步的4周均值小幅走高 至21.75万，显示在假期季节性扰动下，整体仍维持在"温和波动"的区间内。 近几周来，失业金申请人数波动较大，反映出感恩节假期前后数据调整的挑战。 近期宣布裁员的企业包括UPS、通用汽车、亚马逊和Verizon，但这些裁员通常需要数月时间，才会体现在政府统计数据中。 关税影响企业招聘计划 分析称，尽管基于劳工统计局数据计算的失业率出现上升，失业救济申请数据并未显示出任何地区存在明显或急 ...

Core Insights - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased last week, indicating a slight uptick in jobless claims, but it remains within the established range observed over the past year [1] Group 1 - The rise in new unemployment claims suggests potential shifts in the labor market dynamics, although the overall trend remains stable [1] - The current level of claims is consistent with the historical range, indicating no significant deterioration in employment conditions [1]

Group 1 - Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. dropped to 191,000 last week, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised total of 218,000, and below Wall Street's estimate of 221,000 [1][2] - This marks the lowest number of applications since March 30, 2023, when 191,000 jobless claims were reported [2] - Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.93 million, down 15,000 from the previous week [2] Group 2 - Planned job cuts in November totaled just over 71,000, a significant decline from approximately 153,000 job cuts in October [3] - The total number of job cuts for 2023 rose to 1.17 million, the highest level since 2020 [3] - Restructuring plans, closures, and market or economic conditions were cited as the main reasons for layoffs, with tariffs accounting for over 2,000 cuts in November [3]

Core Viewpoint - The number of unemployment benefit applications around the Thanksgiving holiday has decreased to a more than three-year low, indicating that businesses are largely avoiding layoffs despite hiring freezes [1] Group 1 - The decline in unemployment benefit applications suggests a stable labor market, with businesses maintaining their workforce [1] - The current trend reflects a cautious approach from companies, prioritizing workforce retention over new hiring [1]

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has decreased to 220,000, indicating that employers are still trying to maintain their workforce despite economic uncertainties [1][3] - However, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits has risen to 1.974 million, the highest level since October 2021, suggesting a bleak outlook for the labor market [4] Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 220,000, below the expected 227,000 [1] - Continuing claims increased to 1.974 million, exceeding the expected 1.95 million [4] Group 2: Labor Market Context - Major companies like Amazon and Target have announced layoffs, yet the jobless claims remain relatively stable [3] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in decision-making due to a lack of key employment data, which complicates the assessment of the labor market [6][7]

Core Insights - The recent jobless claims data indicates that 232,000 individuals filed for unemployment in the week ending October 18, which is an increase from 219,000 in late September, marking a significant moment as it is the first data released post the government shutdown [1][6]. Economic Implications - The jobless claims figure provides insights into economic trends that were previously obscured during the government shutdown, suggesting that the labor market remains stable without alarming signs for economists [3]. - Forecasters anticipate a modest job growth report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating that the economy added jobs in September, although job growth has slowed significantly since summer due to various uncertainties, including tariffs and immigration policies [4]. Labor Market Analysis - The overall assessment of the labor market suggests a deterioration, yet it is not on the verge of recession, as noted by Dean Baker, a senior economist [5].

Core Insights - The federal agency's website indicates that layoffs remained low during the government shutdown [1] Group 1 - The number of people applying for unemployment benefits has not significantly increased despite the ongoing government shutdown [1]

Key Points - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 232,000 for the week ending October 18, an increase from 219,000 for the week ending September 20, and above the Dow Jones consensus of 223,000 claims [1][2] - Continuing jobless claims increased slightly to 1.957 million from 1.947 million the previous week [2] - The Labor Department's jobless claims data has not been updated for the previous three weeks due to the government shutdown, but updates are expected soon [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is anticipated to release delayed unemployment data, with September's jobs report scheduled for Thursday, projecting an addition of 58,000 nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3% [3]

Economic Data Summary - Q2 GDP was revised up from +3.3% to +3.8%, marking the strongest quarter of growth since Q3 2023 [2] - Consumption increased significantly from +1.6% to +2.5%, indicating a stronger appetite among U.S. consumers [3] - The Price Index rose by 10 basis points, with headline inflation at +2.1% and core inflation at +2.6% [3] Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims fell to 218K, down 17K from estimates and 64K lower than two weeks ago, reaching the lowest level since mid-summer [4] - Continuing Claims rose slightly to 1.926 million, remaining below 1.94 million for the third consecutive week [5] Manufacturing and Trade Data - August Durable Goods Orders increased by +2.9%, significantly better than the prior month's -2.7% and the consensus estimate of -0.5% [6] - The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance for August showed an improvement to -$85.5 billion from -$102.8 billion [7] - Advanced Retail Inventories remained unchanged, while Advanced Wholesale Inventories decreased to -0.2% [7] Market Expectations - Existing Home Sales for August are forecasted at 3.96 million, a decrease from July's 4.01 million [8] - Costco is expected to report fiscal Q4 results with a projected earnings growth of +12.8% year over year and +8.1% revenue growth [9]

Group 1 - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased significantly last week, indicating a return to the previous trend after a notable increase the week before [1]