2025 年二季度收入基本符合我们预期，经营利润略低于我们的预期金山软件公布2Q2025 业绩：收入 23.07 亿元，同比下降7%，基本符合我们的预期。经营利润3.83 亿元，略低于我们的预期，主要系费用 投入略高于预期。 机构：中金公司 研究员：张潇丹/赵丽萍 发展趋势 办公业务增长修复，游戏业务持续优化。办公业务方面，收入同/环比+14%/+4%，主要得益于WPS 个 人及WPS 365 业务的扩张。2025 年6 月WPS Office 全球月活设备数达6.5 亿，同/环比+9%/+1%。期内公 司发布了WPS AI 3.0，并推出原生Office 办公智能体"WPS 灵犀"，作为WPS AI3.0 的核心能力载体，标 志着公司的AI 能力由工具型应用向协同智能体转变。游戏业务方面，收入同/环比-26%/-8%，同比下滑 主要系《尘白禁区》及《剑网3》去年同期基数较高；环比下滑主要系《尘白禁区》及《剑网3》流水表 现环比有所回落。新游戏方面，已于7 月份上线的新品《解限机》仍处于发展初期；社交推理游戏《鹅 鸭杀》于六月获得版号，预约量已突破500 万，公司预计将于下半年上线；《猫咪和汤》续作《猫咪和 ...

"中国味儿"到底是什么？ 不知不觉，2025科隆游戏展已然落下帷幕。或许大家现在还在回味开幕夜上曝光的新内容，但对我而言，令人振奋的不只有新游戏，今年科隆折射出的 2025行业新风向，也给我带来了一些不一样的情绪。 依稀记得去年的这个时候，海内外从业者们都在关心行业生存、市场变化、裁员、资金链等下行期特有的焦虑话题。 你能发现科隆前夕的开发者大会（Devcom）上，海外游戏人提出了不少直戳行业痛处的议题——"游戏行业已死"、"如何在10天内失去一名玩家"、"如何 通过5个简单步骤搞垮你的工作室"...... 当时间来到2025，虽然全球游戏行业下行依旧，Devcom上仍塞满"在不确定时期支持心理健康"、"失败专题：失败无可避免"等惨兮兮的议题，但值得庆 幸的是，一些向好的变化已经在暗地里悄然发生。尤其是国产游戏在这届科隆上呈现出的能量，几乎承包了所有的看点。 一年不见，开始"围攻"科隆了？ 从今年科隆曝光的国产游戏来看，无论是新老产品数量，还是在全球游戏行业以及玩家当中的关注度、新鲜度，今年的国内厂商都有着突破以往的超强 「存在感」。 回顾此次科隆，其中最能体现国产游戏存在感的事件，无疑是开幕夜当天《黑神话： ...

金山软件（03888.HK） 2025 年 08 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 33.800 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 47.500/19.740 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 473.34 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 473.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 14.00 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 14.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 75.95 | 计算机/软件开发 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 金山软件 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《WPS 变现能力仍有待观察，游戏业 务或实现高基数下的稳健增长—港股 公司信息更新报告》-2025.5.30 《游戏回归平稳增速，AI 驱动 WPS 及金山云增长提速 —港股公司信息 更新报告》-2025.3.23 《游戏显著超预期，WPS B 端迎复苏 拐点 —港股公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.20 WPS B 端景气度较优，关注后续《解限机》优化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gaming market is currently vibrant, with various new releases and discussions, but the performance of the mech game "Limitless Mech" has raised concerns about its marketing strategy and player retention [1][3]. Group 1: Game Performance - "Limitless Mech" had a peak online player count of 131,000 at launch, but this number dropped to nearly 10,000 within a month, indicating a significant player loss [3][5]. - The game's core gameplay is considered to be of "passing quality," which does not sufficiently engage players, leading to a lack of positive word-of-mouth [10][22]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - The marketing strategy for "Limitless Mech" was misaligned, failing to identify the target audience and effective channels, resulting in poor visibility in the domestic market [7][8]. - The game attempted to leverage international marketing tactics, such as collaborations with popular streamers, but this did not translate into domestic player engagement [6][7]. Group 3: Player Experience - The game features a complex interface and unclear new player guidance, which has contributed to a frustrating experience for newcomers [13][14][17]. - Core gameplay modes focus heavily on combat, which may not appeal to a broader audience, particularly those who are not combat enthusiasts [15][20]. Group 4: Development Insights - The game is seen as a personal project for its producer, Guo Weiwei, who has a strong passion for mech games, but this focus may not align with the current market demands [25][27]. - The development process has been lengthy, spanning over ten years, and has faced multiple setbacks, raising questions about the effectiveness of the production approach [22][28].

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The Chinese self-developed games' overseas market achieved actual sales revenue of $9.501 billion (approximately 68.341 billion RMB), marking an 11.07% year-on-year growth, the highest in nearly five years [1] - The global mobile game market size grew by 4.8% to 635.57 billion RMB, indicating a recovery in the market, with overseas markets remaining a key area for Chinese game companies [3] - Major game companies like Tencent, NetEase, and others are increasingly entering overseas markets through gameplay integration and innovative themes, enhancing market scale and creating opportunities for blockbuster games [3] Group 2: AI Technology in Game Development - AI technology is providing new opportunities for game companies to expand overseas, with foreign companies already integrating AI deeply into game development [4] - 37 Interactive Entertainment has developed over 40 AI capabilities, including AI translation technology, which is used in over 60% of its overseas games with a 95% accuracy rate [4] - Companies like Youzu Network are leveraging AI and big data to enhance their global game operations, aiming to break down language and cultural barriers [4][5] Group 3: Cultural Export and Localization - Cultural export has evolved from simple product output to deeper cultural integration and localization, facilitating two-way cultural exchange [7] - The success of the game "Black Myth: Wukong," which incorporates rich Chinese cultural elements, has sparked global interest in Chinese culture [7] - Companies are increasingly using games as a medium for cultural dialogue, with Youzu Network and others integrating traditional Chinese culture into their products [9][10] Group 4: Future of the Gaming Industry - The gaming industry is seen as a key driver of economic growth, evolving from mere entertainment to a significant economic force [11] - The industry's evolution is expected to release substantial potential, reshaping economic and cultural landscapes as it aligns with technological advancements and cultural prosperity [11]

Core Viewpoint - Kingsoft Software continues to show steady revenue growth, with a first-quarter revenue of 2.34 billion RMB, representing a 9% year-on-year increase [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for the quarter is approximately 82%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [1] - Research and development expenses are around 830 million RMB, up 16% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in AI capabilities and new game categories [1] - Sales expenses are approximately 340 million RMB, a 30% increase year-on-year, mainly driven by promotional investments for new games [1] - Administrative expenses remain stable at about 160 million RMB year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 284 million RMB, slightly down from 285 million RMB in the same period last year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The office segment, including WPS personal and WPS 365 businesses, generates 1.301 billion RMB in revenue, a 6.22% year-on-year increase [1] - WPS personal business revenue is 857 million RMB, reflecting a 10.86% year-on-year growth, with a global monthly active user base of approximately 647 million, up 7.92% [1] - WPS 365 business revenue is 151 million RMB, showing a significant growth of 62.59% year-on-year, driven by document, collaboration, and AI capabilities [1] Group 3: Gaming Segment - The gaming and other business segment generates approximately 1.04 billion RMB in revenue, a 14% year-on-year increase, mainly from the success of the games "Dust White Zone" and "Jian Wang 3" [2] - "Dust White Zone" maintains user engagement through differentiated content and long-term operational strategies, while "Jian Wang 3" solidifies its user base through gameplay updates [2] - The new game "Limitless Machine" launched on July 2, has received positive feedback, ranking fifth on Steam's global wishlist [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth driven by the dual engines of office and gaming segments [2] - Projections for revenue from 2025 to 2027 are 11.4 billion RMB, 12.9 billion RMB, and 14.6 billion RMB, with net profits of 1.88 billion RMB, 2.46 billion RMB, and 2.85 billion RMB respectively [2] - The target valuation for Kingsoft Software is approximately 49.1 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of about 40 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Software [3][5] Core Views - Kingsoft Software continues to experience steady revenue growth, with Q1 revenue reaching 2.34 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The office and gaming segments contribute 56% and 44% to the total revenue, respectively [1] - The company's gross margin for the quarter is approximately 82%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year [1] - R&D expenses for the quarter are around 830 million RMB, up 16% year-on-year, primarily due to investments in AI capabilities and new game categories [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth driven by both office and gaming segments, estimating revenues of 11.4 billion, 12.9 billion, and 14.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] Summary by Sections Office Segment - Kingsoft Office recorded Q1 revenue of 1.301 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.22%. The personal business segment generated 857 million RMB, growing by 10.86% [2] - WPS 365 business revenue reached 151 million RMB, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 62.59% [2] - WPS software business revenue declined by 20.99% to 262 million RMB, mainly due to new procurement processes affecting sales [2] Gaming Segment - The gaming and other business revenue for Q1 was approximately 1.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14%, driven by contributions from games like "Dust White Zone" and "Jian Wang 3" [2] - The new game "Limitless Machine" launched on July 2, has received positive feedback, ranking fifth on Steam's global wishlist [2] Financial Projections - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.88 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.85 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 21%, 31%, and 16% [4][3] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2026 is 17.4, with a target valuation of approximately 49.1 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of around 40 HKD [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue and operating profit in Q2 2025, primarily due to pressures in the gaming sector and increased investments in new games and AI initiatives [1][2]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts a revenue of 2.29 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.5% [1]. - The office business is projected to generate 1.34 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 13.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.1% [1]. - The gaming business is expected to generate 0.945 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.8% [1]. Profitability Analysis - The operating profit is anticipated to be 400 million yuan, with an operating profit margin of 17.5%, down 14.6 percentage points year-on-year and 8.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 601 million yuan, corresponding to a net profit margin of 26.3%, showing an increase of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year and 14.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Adjustments to Forecasts - The revenue growth forecast for the gaming segment has been revised down from 5% to flat for the year, reflecting cautious assumptions regarding the performance of new and existing games [1][2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 2.4% and 3.1% to 11.07 billion yuan and 12.36 billion yuan, respectively [2]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is maintained at 50 HKD, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35 times for 2025 [2]. - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 times for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 38% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent global popularity of the rap song "Da Zhan Hong Tu" exemplifies the successful overseas dissemination of Chinese culture, highlighting the balance between profound cultural works and more relatable, popular cultural products [2][3] Group 1: Cultural Dissemination - The success of "Da Zhan Hong Tu" is part of a broader trend where Chinese culture is increasingly welcomed by global audiences, with various forms of media such as music, film, and games gaining traction [2][3] - Recent cultural exports demonstrate a diverse creativity in Chinese culture, appealing particularly to younger audiences and transforming sporadic highlights into a continuous and expansive presence [2][3][4] Group 2: Dual Approach to Cultural Promotion - Cultural dissemination should adopt a dual approach: showcasing profound works that represent Chinese civilization while also promoting relatable and popular cultural products that resonate with the public [3][4] - The interplay between high culture and popular culture enhances the overall cultural image, with each serving distinct roles in attracting and engaging audiences [4] Group 3: Factors Supporting Cultural Export - Effective media and technology empower creators to produce innovative works, facilitating smoother and broader cultural dissemination through internet platforms [4][5] - The development of the cultural industry supports new cultural types, such as micro-dramas, which thrive on diverse content and audience validation, enabling easier success in overseas markets [5] - New platforms play a crucial role in showcasing cultural products, allowing for a more tailored approach that resonates with local audiences and enhances market resilience [5][6] Group 4: Future Prospects - Building cultural influence and brand recognition globally requires ongoing efforts in market competitiveness, product appeal, and audience engagement, while embracing global contexts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry in China is experiencing a significant recovery in the first half of the year, as evidenced by the performance forecasts of several A-share gaming companies, with many reporting substantial profit growth or turning losses into profits [1][2]. Financial Performance - ST华通 (Century Huatong) is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan, representing a growth of 107.20% to 158.00% [2] - 浙数文化 (ZheShu Culture) anticipates a net profit of 330 million to 390 million yuan, with a growth of 124% to 165% [2] - 游族网络 (Youzu Network) forecasts a net profit of 40 million to 60 million yuan, marking an increase of 768.75% to 1203.13% [2] - 完美世界 (Perfect World) and 冰川网络 (Icefire Network) are expected to turn losses into profits, with 完美世界 projecting a profit of 480 million to 520 million yuan [2][6] - ST凯文 (ST Kevin) expects to maintain a loss level similar to last year, with a projected loss of 65 million to 48 million yuan [2] - 电魂网络 (Dianhun Network) anticipates a loss of 11 million to 7.5 million yuan, indicating a shift from profit to loss [2] Cost Control as a Key Factor - Cost control has emerged as a critical factor for gaming companies to avoid losses, with companies like 完美世界 and 冰川网络 attributing their turnaround to reduced investment in underperforming projects [1][4] - High distribution costs have made it challenging for gaming companies to maintain profitability [2][3] Market Environment - The number of game licenses issued in the first half of the year has significantly increased compared to last year, with the domestic mobile game market growing by 20% year-on-year [1][7] - The gaming market is characterized by intense competition, with a focus on product quality as a determinant of success [1][8] Long-term Products and New Releases - Long-standing products are crucial for the stability of gaming companies, providing a solid revenue base amid market growth [7] - New blockbuster games remain essential for driving rapid revenue growth, as seen with ST华通's new release, which has performed exceptionally well in the market [9][10] Industry Trends - The gaming industry is witnessing a recovery in market sentiment, with a notable increase in the issuance of domestic game licenses and the integration of AI technology enhancing operational efficiency [8] - The upcoming release of major titles from leading companies is expected to intensify market competition [10]