Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [8]. Core Insights - The commercialization of AI applications by ByteDance and the acceleration of MaaS (Model as a Service) may compel major internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu to expedite their AI strategies and monetization efforts [1]. - The demand for self-indulgent consumption among the post-90s and post-00s generations is expected to continue growing, with gaming and music sectors showing resilience despite market fluctuations [1]. - The gaming sector is anticipated to rebound quickly, driven by the upcoming Spring Festival and the global expansion of gaming applications [1]. - Companies with high-frequency data demonstrating growth certainty for 2026 are likely to see early rebounds in their stock performance [1]. Summary by Sections AI and Internet Media - ByteDance's AI application commercialization and partnerships are expected to enhance its market position, with the daily token usage surpassing 50 trillion [1]. - The market share of ByteDance's Volcano Engine in the MaaS segment is projected to reach 49% by the first half of 2025 [1]. - Major competitors are urged to accelerate their AI cloud strategies and monetization efforts in response to ByteDance's advancements [1]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is poised for growth, particularly with the Spring Festival approaching, which is expected to boost user engagement and revenue [1]. - Key recommended stocks include Giant Network, which is expected to see increased revenue and daily active users, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, noted for its high dividends and low PE ratio [1]. Music and Other Entertainment - The music subscription model shows strong user retention and cash flow potential, with NetEase Cloud Music still in its growth phase [1]. - The collectible toy market, represented by Pop Mart, has shown significant revenue growth, driven by product innovation and market expansion [1]. Advertising and Media - Focus on advertising sustainability remains, with the acquisition of New Wave expected to enhance bargaining power within the industry [1]. - The advertising sector is projected to maintain growth despite competition from e-commerce and local services [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [3][11]. Core Insights - ByteDance's AI application commercialization and MaaS (Model as a Service) are expected to accelerate, potentially forcing major internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu to expedite their AI strategies and monetization efforts [3]. - The demand for self-indulgent consumption among the post-90s and post-00s demographics is outpacing the overall domestic demand, with a focus on gaming, music, and trendy products [3]. - The gaming sector is anticipated to rebound quickly due to the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by younger audiences and a decline in global app store bargaining power [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - ByteDance's advancements in AI and cloud services are likely to challenge competitors to enhance their AI capabilities and monetization strategies [3]. - The market remains optimistic about the growth of self-indulgent consumption, particularly in gaming and entertainment sectors, despite concerns over product cycle fluctuations [3]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is expected to see significant growth during the Spring Festival, with key products like Giant Network's "Supernatural" projected to achieve new highs in revenue and daily active users [3]. - Recommended stocks include Giant Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and Bilibili, with a focus on companies with new product reserves and low PE ratios [3]. Other Consumption Areas - In the music sector, subscription models are showing strong user retention and cash flow, with NetEase Cloud Music still in its growth phase [3]. - For trendy products, Pop Mart's revenue from single IPs has shown significant growth, supported by product innovation and market expansion [3]. Advertising Sector - Focus on the sustainability of advertising investments in the internet sector, with potential growth from acquisitions and high dividend yields providing a safety margin [3].

巨人网络 20251215 摘要 游戏板块估值回调提供入场机会，当前估值约 20 倍，较前期高点 25 倍 有更大上涨空间，预计可达 25-30 倍区间，具备较好收益弹性。 2026 年游戏行业预计迎来产品大年，完美世界、腾讯、莉莉丝、米哈 游等公司均有重磅产品上线计划，无需担忧产品增速下降。 巨人网络《超自然》表现优异，七至九月流水达 15 亿元，九月流水超 预期，国庆期间 DAU 创新高近 700 万，预计春节期间将推出最佳版本 更新并加大商业化力度。 《超自然》第三季度收入确认周期调整为三个月，若按原两个月计算， 收入可增加约 2.7 亿元，总收入达 30 亿元，利润增加 2 亿元，总利润 达 8.5 亿元。预计第四季度流水与第三季度相当。 《超自然》销售费用率控制在流水 20%以内，净利润率高达 50%，主 要得益于官网下载占比高，渠道费用较低。短期内广告投放费用率维持 在 20%左右合理区间。 中国游戏市场呈现多元化发展趋势，大制作与小游戏并行，用户需求推 动休闲类游戏爆发，厂商积极扩展年轻化和女性用户群体。 巨人网络未来发展预期良好，除《超自然行动组》外，还有《名将杀》、 《5,000 年》、《口 ...

Group 1: Investment Opportunities in Entertainment Sector - The core opportunities in the entertainment sector stem from domestic young users and overseas expansion, with key targets having a projected PE of around 15x for 2026 [1] - Giant Network is expected to see an increase in domestic DAU and revenue during the Spring Festival, with plans to expand its game "Supernatural" to Southeast Asia and Japan in 2026 [1] - 37 Interactive Entertainment received an administrative penalty on December 5, with a low PE and high dividend yield, and 32% of its revenue coming from overseas [1] Group 2: Key Players and Market Trends - Century Huatong's core SLG product remains strong, with a focus on the global expansion of casual games in 2026 [2] - Pop Mart is viewed as overly pessimistic regarding single IP expectations, with IP and regional expansion (Europe and America) being key growth drivers [2] - Zhi Zi Cheng's social entertainment business is thriving in the Middle East, with a projected revenue increase of 34.5% to 36.4% year-on-year for the first nine months of the year [2] Group 3: AI and Technology Developments - Companies like Tencent, NetEase, and Bilibili are exploring AI applications, with Bilibili launching "百将牌" in Q1 2026 and AI advertising options [3] - Baidu and Alibaba are focusing on AI infrastructure, with Baidu's Kunlun chip M100 set to launch in early 2026, optimized for large-scale inference scenarios [4] - The integration of AI applications into various sectors, including advertising and e-commerce, is being pursued by multiple companies, with a focus on short videos and IP [3]

Group 1 - The gaming sector experienced a slight decline in early trading on October 13, with the gaming ETF (159869) dropping to around 1.5% [1] - As of October 10, the gaming ETF (159869) saw a net inflow of funds amounting to 2.102 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The product size of the gaming ETF reached 10.936 billion yuan, facilitating investors' access to leading A-share gaming companies [1] Group 2 - On October 12, the official announcement of the game "Black Myth: Wukong" revealed an update aimed at performance optimization and bug fixes, set to be released on October 13 across platforms [1] - The update is intended to enhance player experience and strengthen the game's reputation and longevity, highlighting the importance of ongoing maintenance for AAA titles in the gaming industry [1] - Investors are likely to place greater value on companies capable of continuous content updates and technological iterations, shifting the competitive focus towards the full lifecycle operation of products [1] Group 3 - Citic Securities released a report indicating that the typical peak seasons for gaming are during summer and winter vacations, but this year, the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed strong performance in tourism and dining [2] - Several games, including "Delta," "Dream of the Westward Journey," and "Supernatural," achieved daily revenue during the holidays that was approximately 50% higher than the average daily revenue during the summer [2] - The gaming sector is experiencing multiple catalysts for transformation, including AI, content, and commercialization models, with the gaming ETF (159869) tracking the performance of the A-share listed companies in the animation and gaming industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming industry in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has shown significant revenue growth, with A-share gaming companies reporting a 22% year-on-year increase in gaming business revenue and Hong Kong gaming companies reporting a 16% increase, indicating overall profit improvement for manufacturers [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth Drivers - The performance of new and evergreen games has driven revenue growth, with successful new releases such as Tencent's "Delta Action" and Xindong's "Fantasy Land M: Original Server" contributing to revenue increases in Southeast Asia and the Greater China region [2] - Flagship evergreen games from Tencent and NetEase have also seen growth, with several mid-sized manufacturers experiencing a rebound in older games [2] Group 2: Marketing and AI Strategies - Marketing strategies vary among manufacturers due to product cycle differences, with increased marketing investments noted for new game versions, while some companies have reduced sales expense ratios due to AI-driven efficiency improvements [3] - AI applications in gaming focus on enhancing user engagement through AI NPCs and UGC creation, while company-level applications aim to improve efficiency in art, coding, and customer service [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for A-share gaming companies in Q3 is optimistic, with new game releases expected to significantly contribute to profits, exemplified by Giant Network's "Supernatural" and JiBit's "Staff Sword Legend" [4] - Continued focus on the sustainability of new games and the value of evergreen games, alongside global expansion efforts, is anticipated to drive demand [4]

Group 1 - The gaming industry shows positive high-frequency data and good mid-term report expectations, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector's sustainability [1] - The product "Supernatural" demonstrates commercial flexibility after an increase in Daily Active Users (DAU), with a need to monitor revenue sustainability post-summer [1] - Long-term prospects in the IP sector are optimistic, particularly regarding 2B licensing and 2C channel growth, reflecting overall confidence in the gaming and IP industries [1] Group 2 - The gaming ETF (516010) tracks the anime and gaming index (930901), which selects listed companies involved in anime production, game development, and platform operations to reflect the overall performance of the anime and gaming industry [1] - The anime and gaming index focuses on the emerging cultural entertainment sector, covering the entire industry chain from content creation to distribution, characterized by high growth potential and market volatility [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Anime and Gaming ETF Connect C (012729) and Connect A (012728) for investment opportunities [1]