2026 年 01 月 07 日 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 沪深300 创业板指 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 4.257 | | 非银金融 | 3.727 | | 基础化工 | 3.123 | | 国防军工 | 3.080 | | 综合 | 2.888 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | -0.766 | | 美容护理 | 0.202 | | 银行 | 0.477 | | 食品饮料 | 0.495 | | 家用电器 | 0.523 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 开源晨会 0107 ——晨会纪要 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 行业公司 【非银金融】储蓄和保障双重优势，保险占居民理财比重有望持续提升——行业 深度报告-20260106 储蓄和保障双重优势 ...

Core Insights - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 178 domestic game licenses and 6 imported game licenses on November 26, indicating a stable monthly issuance of licenses, which is expected to boost market confidence in the gaming industry [1][3]. Industry Overview - As of November, a total of 1,532 domestic game licenses and 92 imported game licenses have been issued this year, showing a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3]. - The distribution of the 178 domestic licenses includes 167 mobile games, 7 games for both mobile and client platforms, 3 client-only games, and 1 game available on mobile, client, and web platforms [1]. Company Highlights - Key games approved in this round include titles from major companies such as: - Ksyun Network's "Ice and Snow King" - Iceberg Network's "Little Guardian" - Perfect World's "Dream New Zhu Xian: Light Enjoy" - Other notable titles from various developers [2]. - Tencent continues to maintain a strong portfolio with 14 evergreen games, while Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" has exceeded expectations [4]. - Companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World are also expected to contribute to profit growth with their new game launches and existing titles [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as a first-time coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned for growth through a dual engine of self-developed games and the TapTap platform, which serves as a comprehensive game community and distribution platform [1][2]. - The self-developed games have shown strong performance, with titles like "Let's Go Muffin" and "Heart Town" driving revenue growth, while the TapTap platform is expected to expand significantly due to its user base and monetization potential [2][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global game developer and publisher with a diverse portfolio, including popular titles such as "Let's Go Muffin," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite." It ranks 22nd among mobile game publishers in China and is expected to enter the global top 100 by October 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - **Self-Developed Game Capability**: The company has consistently validated its ability to develop successful games, with a strong product matrix and ongoing growth from new releases and international expansions [2][12]. - **TapTap Platform Growth**: The platform benefits from a user-game dual effect, with a zero-revenue-sharing policy attracting quality games and users. The introduction of a PC version and the expansion of the iOS ecosystem are expected to further enhance growth [2][34][39]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve significant profit growth, with net profits expected to reach 1.7 billion, 2.1 billion, and 2.55 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 111.2%, 24.3%, and 20.0% [2][46]. - The target price is set at 103.2 HKD, based on a 22x PE ratio for 2026, indicating a strong valuation relative to industry peers [2][50]. Revenue Projections - Total revenue is expected to grow from 3.39 billion CNY in 2023 to 8.84 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.0% from 2025 to 2027 [46][47]. - Game revenue is projected to increase significantly, driven by successful titles and new game launches, while information service revenue from TapTap is also expected to grow robustly [46][47]. Cost and Margin Expectations - The company anticipates improving gross margins, with overall gross margins projected to rise from 69.4% in 2024 to 76.3% by 2027, driven by a higher proportion of self-developed games [48][49].

Core Insights - The article highlights the trends and changes in the overseas revenue of Chinese mobile application and game developers for October 2025, based on data from the "Diandian Data" platform [1] Non-Game Developers Revenue Summary - ByteDance leads the non-game developers' revenue ranking with its video editing app "CapCut," achieving an estimated overseas monthly revenue exceeding $31.36 million, continuing a growth trend since April [4] - Huya Group (NASDAQ: YY) and Ruqi Software follow, with both experiencing a decline in revenue [4] - Meitu (HK: 01357) saw a significant revenue increase of over 11.48% month-on-month, driven by its apps "Meitu" and "BeautyCam" in East Asian markets [4] - Xiaohongshu maintained a 16.2% growth in overseas revenue, supported by strong performance in its lifestyle social app [4] - iQIYI (NASDAQ: IQ) reported a revenue increase of over 13.3%, attributed to the success of its series in Taiwan and Thailand [5] - Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) experienced a revenue recovery of over 11.5% from its browser and cloud storage applications [5] Game Developers Revenue Summary - The game market showed signs of recovery in October, with many domestic developers experiencing slight revenue increases [9] - Diandian Interactive (SZ: 002602) maintained its top position, with a revenue growth rate of approximately 0.6% [9] - Lemon Microfun's games continued to perform well, with a revenue increase exceeding 34.5% due to a Halloween-themed event [10] - Youxing Network's new RPG "Star Tower Traveler" generated over $7.12 million in revenue within two weeks of its overseas launch, with a significant portion coming from Japan [10] - Heartbeat Network (HK: 02400) saw a revenue increase of over 89.5% driven by new game launches and seasonal events [11] - BeheFun's social gaming app "Top Tycoon: Coin Theme Empire" achieved a revenue growth of 29.8%, setting new revenue records [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing an unexpected upturn, driven by the release of new products and increasing demand from young and female users for innovative game categories such as SLG combined with simulation management, match-three, synthesis types, and female-oriented games [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - AI technology plays a crucial role in game development, innovation in gameplay, and commercialization, leading to cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Major companies and leading startups are developing native AI games, which will open up future commercialization opportunities [1][5] - The recent market fluctuations provide a favorable opportunity for reallocation within the gaming sector, with core company valuations dropping to around 20 times earnings or even lower, suggesting a strategic increase in investment in companies with strong performance and rich new product pipelines [1][6] - Companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong are showing stable growth through successful game operations and IP collaborations, with titles like "Supernatural Action Group" and "White Out Survival" leading in revenue [1][9] Notable Companies and Products - **Giant Network**: The game "Supernatural Action Group" has maintained stable growth through operational activities and IP collaborations, positioning it as a potential evergreen title [1][9] - **Century Huatong**: Its subsidiary, Point Point Interactive, has two games, "White Out Survival" and "King Shot," that dominate the Chinese mobile game revenue rankings, with "King Shot" achieving a 5% month-on-month revenue increase in September, surpassing $100 million [1][9] - **Xindong Company**: The new title "Ise" is steadily rising in rankings, aided by its channel advantages on the TapTap platform, which enhances daily active users (DAU) and revenue [1][9][10] AI Integration in Gaming - Companies like Kaiying Network are planning to launch AI-related businesses, including the commercialization of their AI game development platform, Zoom, and AI companion applications, which are expected to generate additional revenue in Q4 [4][11] - The integration of AI in gaming is anticipated to enhance user engagement and innovate payment models, with many companies reporting significant advancements in AI's role across development, operation, and commercialization [5][11] Future Outlook - The gaming sector's growth cycle is expected to exceed expectations, with AI's influence on game development and commercialization being a key driver [3][12] - Companies with strong legacy products and the potential for new product cycles are viewed positively for future growth, particularly those with proactive AI strategies [12][13] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with robust product portfolios and innovative AI applications, including Xindong, Kaiying, Giant Network, Tencent, and NetEase, as they are likely to experience significant growth and performance elasticity starting in 2026 [12][13] Additional Trends in AI Applications - The AI application landscape is diversifying, with significant advancements in content creation, particularly in video generation, and the emergence of vertical market applications [14][15] - Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities in AI-driven sectors such as advertising, social media, e-commerce, education, and finance, leveraging the ongoing market adjustments [15]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a weekly increase of 0.37% from October 9 to October 10, 2025, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.86% during the same period [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 5.48% and the Nasdaq Index dropped by 2.53% from October 6 to October 10, 2025 [1][2] - The Media Index saw a decline of 3.59% from October 9 to October 10, 2025, and the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index decreased by 5.82% during the same week [1][2] AI Developments - OpenAI launched its flagship video and audio generation model Sora2 on September 30, 2025, which can perform complex tasks previously deemed impossible, such as simulating gymnastics movements and creating realistic soundscapes [3][4] - Tencent released its multimodal image generation model HunyuanImage3.0, which has 80 billion parameters, making it the largest open-source model in the industry [3][5] Semiconductor Sector - Dell Technologies updated its long-term financial framework, projecting annual revenue growth of 7-9%, doubling its previous forecast of 3-4% [6] - Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in xAI to fund the Colossus2 supercomputer's GPUs [6] - TSMC reported a September 2025 revenue of approximately NT$330.98 billion, a 1.4% decrease from the previous month but a 31.4% increase year-over-year [6] Autonomous Driving - Didi Autonomous Driving secured a Series D funding round totaling 2 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing AI research and promoting L4 autonomous driving applications [7] Local Lifestyle - Gaode's "Street Ranking" feature reached over 400 million users within 23 days of launch, with a 300% increase in traffic for featured local shops [8] E-commerce - The 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival commenced, with Douyin reporting an 800% year-over-year increase in brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales on the first day [9] Smartphone Market - Xiaomi captured a 21.2% market share during the Golden Week from September 29 to October 5, 2025, surpassing Apple to become the top smartphone seller in China [10] Film Industry - The box office for the 2025 National Day holiday reached 1.835 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 98.93% of the total [12] Gaming Sector - The game "Ither" launched on September 25, 2025, achieving 317,000 downloads on its first day and topping the iOS free game charts in five out of six targeted markets [13]

Core Insights - The year 2024 marks the first year of profitability for Xindong after three consecutive years of losses, driven by the success of self-developed new games like "Departure Muffin" and "Xindong Town," along with the earlier overseas launch of "Lily of the Valley" [1] - The company has adopted a more focused approach this year, emphasizing the release of the turn-based strategy card RPG "Etheria: Restart," which supports multi-platform play [1][3] Game Performance - "Etheria: Restart" launched internationally in June, generating a revenue of 69.33 million yuan in its first month, excluding PC data [3][19] - The game was released in six major East Asian T1 markets on September 25, achieving a revenue of 37.1 million yuan within 12 days, slightly surpassing the international version's performance [6][15] - As of October 9, the game maintained strong rankings in the iOS free and revenue charts across various East Asian markets, with notable positions in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Japan [9][11] Market Trends - The game has shown a cumulative download of approximately 1.435 million in the new markets, with significant contributions from China, Taiwan, and Japan [13] - The daily revenue peaked at 4.06 million yuan shortly after launch but has since stabilized around 2.8 million yuan [15] - The average revenue per download (RPD) reached 27.6 yuan, slightly lower than the international version's 34.5 yuan [15] Long-term Outlook - The international version of "Etheria: Restart" has demonstrated stable monthly revenue of around 10 million yuan after four months, indicating potential for long-term operation [16][23] - The company plans to enhance its esports ecosystem, aiming to establish "the first IP in turn-based esports," with various tournaments already held and more planned for the future [25][27] Financial Performance - Xindong's financial report for the first half of the year shows significant growth, with total revenue reaching 3.08 billion yuan, a 38.8% increase year-on-year [36] - The top five revenue-generating games include "Departure Muffin" and "Xindong Town," indicating a shift towards newer titles contributing to overall revenue [38]

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on Xindong Company (02400) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 28%/23%/14% and adjusted net profit growth at 94%/31%/24% [1] Group 1: Game Promotion and TapTap's Value - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, leading to increased sales expense ratios, with TapTap emerging as a significant promotional channel [1] - TapTap's online promotion service revenue for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 976 million, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1] - TapTap offers low or no revenue sharing, making it developer-friendly, and has become a vital promotional channel for small and independent games due to its specialized and professional nature [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The number of game licenses issued in China increased by 25% year-on-year, with a total of 1,195 licenses from January to September 2025, enhancing promotional demand [2] - TapTap has over 240,000 registered developers and 300,000 games launched, with an average monthly active user count of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - AI technology is expected to empower game development, benefiting TapTap by enhancing content supply and promoting a more equitable creative environment [2] Group 3: Validation of Xindong's Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully validated its strategic adjustments since 2022, focusing on core product categories and enhancing efficiency [3] - Successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" demonstrate the company's ability to develop enduring games through resource focus and continuous updates [3] - Upcoming game releases, including the strategy card game "Iser" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicate a strong pipeline for future growth [3]

Group 1 - The game ETF (159869) has seen a narrowing decline of 0.25% as of September 30, with a net inflow of funds amounting to 1.298 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The product scale of the game ETF has reached a new high of 10.574 billion yuan since its inception, facilitating investors in easily accessing leading A-share gaming companies [1] - In September 2025, a total of 145 domestic game licenses and 11 imported game licenses were issued, with several major companies receiving approvals for their games [1] Group 2 - The gaming sector is experiencing multiple catalysts including AI, content, and commercialization model transformations, making the game ETF (159869) an attractive investment opportunity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap platform driven by the resumption of game license approvals and AI-enabled game development, alongside the strategic adjustments in the company's self-developed game pipeline [1][2]. Group 1: TapTap Platform Value - TapTap has become a significant channel for game promotion, with online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1]. - The platform offers low or no revenue sharing, making it friendly for small and independent developers, and has emerged as a vital promotional channel due to the fragmentation of user time and the rise of vertical communities [1]. - TapTap provides comprehensive services including analysis, testing, and marketing promotion, enhancing its value to developers [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The developer-user flywheel effect is established, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, and an average monthly active user (MAU) of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 37% in user advertising ARPU [2]. - The total number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,195, a 25% year-on-year increase, boosting the demand for promotion [2]. - The strategic expansion into multi-platform and international markets, along with AI-enabled game development, is expected to enhance TapTap's revenue potential, with projections estimating revenue could reach 5 billion by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The self-developed game strategy has shown positive results since 2024, with a focus on core categories and efficient resource allocation, leading to successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" [3]. - The company has demonstrated the ability to develop enduring games through focused resources, continuous optimization, and frequent updates, with successful overseas contributions [3]. - Future game pipeline includes promising titles such as the strategy card game "Ither" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicating a solid reserve of upcoming products [3].