心动公司（02400.HK ） 买入（首次评级） 港股公司研究 证券研究报告 "聚匠人心，动玩家情" ，自研+平台 双轮驱动成长 公司简介 心动公司是一家全球游戏开发和发行商，拥有丰富的研发、发行和 代理运营经验。公司主要游戏包括《出发吧麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊 瑟》《仙境传说 M》《火炬之光：无限》等，根据 Sensor Tower，公 司 2025 年 10 月入围全球手游发行商收入榜 TOP100，在中国手游 发行商收入榜中排名第 22 名。同时，公司拥有国内规模最大的综 合性游戏社区平台 TapTap，TapTap 兼具"游戏社区"与"分发平 台"功能，为玩家提供游戏发现、下载、互动的全链路服务，为开 发者提供从测试、发布到运营的全周期支持。 投资逻辑： 1、自研游戏能力持续验证，长青游戏+出海+新品周期驱动增长： 2024 年以来公司自研游戏《出发吧麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊瑟》等 连续取得亮眼表现，体现出打磨精品游戏以及精准产品定位带来 的高成功率。《心动小镇》国际服及《仙境传说 RO：守护永恒的爱 2》等新地区新产品的上线有望继续驱动增长。 2、TapTap 平台成长及商业化空间广阔： a)TapTa ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the trends and changes in the overseas revenue of Chinese mobile application and game developers for October 2025, based on data from the "Diandian Data" platform [1] Non-Game Developers Revenue Summary - ByteDance leads the non-game developers' revenue ranking with its video editing app "CapCut," achieving an estimated overseas monthly revenue exceeding $31.36 million, continuing a growth trend since April [4] - Huya Group (NASDAQ: YY) and Ruqi Software follow, with both experiencing a decline in revenue [4] - Meitu (HK: 01357) saw a significant revenue increase of over 11.48% month-on-month, driven by its apps "Meitu" and "BeautyCam" in East Asian markets [4] - Xiaohongshu maintained a 16.2% growth in overseas revenue, supported by strong performance in its lifestyle social app [4] - iQIYI (NASDAQ: IQ) reported a revenue increase of over 13.3%, attributed to the success of its series in Taiwan and Thailand [5] - Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) experienced a revenue recovery of over 11.5% from its browser and cloud storage applications [5] Game Developers Revenue Summary - The game market showed signs of recovery in October, with many domestic developers experiencing slight revenue increases [9] - Diandian Interactive (SZ: 002602) maintained its top position, with a revenue growth rate of approximately 0.6% [9] - Lemon Microfun's games continued to perform well, with a revenue increase exceeding 34.5% due to a Halloween-themed event [10] - Youxing Network's new RPG "Star Tower Traveler" generated over $7.12 million in revenue within two weeks of its overseas launch, with a significant portion coming from Japan [10] - Heartbeat Network (HK: 02400) saw a revenue increase of over 89.5% driven by new game launches and seasonal events [11] - BeheFun's social gaming app "Top Tycoon: Coin Theme Empire" achieved a revenue growth of 29.8%, setting new revenue records [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing an unexpected upturn, driven by the release of new products and increasing demand from young and female users for innovative game categories such as SLG combined with simulation management, match-three, synthesis types, and female-oriented games [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - AI technology plays a crucial role in game development, innovation in gameplay, and commercialization, leading to cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Major companies and leading startups are developing native AI games, which will open up future commercialization opportunities [1][5] - The recent market fluctuations provide a favorable opportunity for reallocation within the gaming sector, with core company valuations dropping to around 20 times earnings or even lower, suggesting a strategic increase in investment in companies with strong performance and rich new product pipelines [1][6] - Companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong are showing stable growth through successful game operations and IP collaborations, with titles like "Supernatural Action Group" and "White Out Survival" leading in revenue [1][9] Notable Companies and Products - **Giant Network**: The game "Supernatural Action Group" has maintained stable growth through operational activities and IP collaborations, positioning it as a potential evergreen title [1][9] - **Century Huatong**: Its subsidiary, Point Point Interactive, has two games, "White Out Survival" and "King Shot," that dominate the Chinese mobile game revenue rankings, with "King Shot" achieving a 5% month-on-month revenue increase in September, surpassing $100 million [1][9] - **Xindong Company**: The new title "Ise" is steadily rising in rankings, aided by its channel advantages on the TapTap platform, which enhances daily active users (DAU) and revenue [1][9][10] AI Integration in Gaming - Companies like Kaiying Network are planning to launch AI-related businesses, including the commercialization of their AI game development platform, Zoom, and AI companion applications, which are expected to generate additional revenue in Q4 [4][11] - The integration of AI in gaming is anticipated to enhance user engagement and innovate payment models, with many companies reporting significant advancements in AI's role across development, operation, and commercialization [5][11] Future Outlook - The gaming sector's growth cycle is expected to exceed expectations, with AI's influence on game development and commercialization being a key driver [3][12] - Companies with strong legacy products and the potential for new product cycles are viewed positively for future growth, particularly those with proactive AI strategies [12][13] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with robust product portfolios and innovative AI applications, including Xindong, Kaiying, Giant Network, Tencent, and NetEase, as they are likely to experience significant growth and performance elasticity starting in 2026 [12][13] Additional Trends in AI Applications - The AI application landscape is diversifying, with significant advancements in content creation, particularly in video generation, and the emergence of vertical market applications [14][15] - Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities in AI-driven sectors such as advertising, social media, e-commerce, education, and finance, leveraging the ongoing market adjustments [15]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a weekly increase of 0.37% from October 9 to October 10, 2025, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.86% during the same period [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 5.48% and the Nasdaq Index dropped by 2.53% from October 6 to October 10, 2025 [1][2] - The Media Index saw a decline of 3.59% from October 9 to October 10, 2025, and the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index decreased by 5.82% during the same week [1][2] AI Developments - OpenAI launched its flagship video and audio generation model Sora2 on September 30, 2025, which can perform complex tasks previously deemed impossible, such as simulating gymnastics movements and creating realistic soundscapes [3][4] - Tencent released its multimodal image generation model HunyuanImage3.0, which has 80 billion parameters, making it the largest open-source model in the industry [3][5] Semiconductor Sector - Dell Technologies updated its long-term financial framework, projecting annual revenue growth of 7-9%, doubling its previous forecast of 3-4% [6] - Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in xAI to fund the Colossus2 supercomputer's GPUs [6] - TSMC reported a September 2025 revenue of approximately NT$330.98 billion, a 1.4% decrease from the previous month but a 31.4% increase year-over-year [6] Autonomous Driving - Didi Autonomous Driving secured a Series D funding round totaling 2 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing AI research and promoting L4 autonomous driving applications [7] Local Lifestyle - Gaode's "Street Ranking" feature reached over 400 million users within 23 days of launch, with a 300% increase in traffic for featured local shops [8] E-commerce - The 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival commenced, with Douyin reporting an 800% year-over-year increase in brands achieving over 100 million yuan in sales on the first day [9] Smartphone Market - Xiaomi captured a 21.2% market share during the Golden Week from September 29 to October 5, 2025, surpassing Apple to become the top smartphone seller in China [10] Film Industry - The box office for the 2025 National Day holiday reached 1.835 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 98.93% of the total [12] Gaming Sector - The game "Ither" launched on September 25, 2025, achieving 317,000 downloads on its first day and topping the iOS free game charts in five out of six targeted markets [13]

Core Insights - The year 2024 marks the first year of profitability for Xindong after three consecutive years of losses, driven by the success of self-developed new games like "Departure Muffin" and "Xindong Town," along with the earlier overseas launch of "Lily of the Valley" [1] - The company has adopted a more focused approach this year, emphasizing the release of the turn-based strategy card RPG "Etheria: Restart," which supports multi-platform play [1][3] Game Performance - "Etheria: Restart" launched internationally in June, generating a revenue of 69.33 million yuan in its first month, excluding PC data [3][19] - The game was released in six major East Asian T1 markets on September 25, achieving a revenue of 37.1 million yuan within 12 days, slightly surpassing the international version's performance [6][15] - As of October 9, the game maintained strong rankings in the iOS free and revenue charts across various East Asian markets, with notable positions in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Japan [9][11] Market Trends - The game has shown a cumulative download of approximately 1.435 million in the new markets, with significant contributions from China, Taiwan, and Japan [13] - The daily revenue peaked at 4.06 million yuan shortly after launch but has since stabilized around 2.8 million yuan [15] - The average revenue per download (RPD) reached 27.6 yuan, slightly lower than the international version's 34.5 yuan [15] Long-term Outlook - The international version of "Etheria: Restart" has demonstrated stable monthly revenue of around 10 million yuan after four months, indicating potential for long-term operation [16][23] - The company plans to enhance its esports ecosystem, aiming to establish "the first IP in turn-based esports," with various tournaments already held and more planned for the future [25][27] Financial Performance - Xindong's financial report for the first half of the year shows significant growth, with total revenue reaching 3.08 billion yuan, a 38.8% increase year-on-year [36] - The top five revenue-generating games include "Departure Muffin" and "Xindong Town," indicating a shift towards newer titles contributing to overall revenue [38]

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on Xindong Company (02400) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 28%/23%/14% and adjusted net profit growth at 94%/31%/24% [1] Group 1: Game Promotion and TapTap's Value - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, leading to increased sales expense ratios, with TapTap emerging as a significant promotional channel [1] - TapTap's online promotion service revenue for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 976 million, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1] - TapTap offers low or no revenue sharing, making it developer-friendly, and has become a vital promotional channel for small and independent games due to its specialized and professional nature [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The number of game licenses issued in China increased by 25% year-on-year, with a total of 1,195 licenses from January to September 2025, enhancing promotional demand [2] - TapTap has over 240,000 registered developers and 300,000 games launched, with an average monthly active user count of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - AI technology is expected to empower game development, benefiting TapTap by enhancing content supply and promoting a more equitable creative environment [2] Group 3: Validation of Xindong's Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully validated its strategic adjustments since 2022, focusing on core product categories and enhancing efficiency [3] - Successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" demonstrate the company's ability to develop enduring games through resource focus and continuous updates [3] - Upcoming game releases, including the strategy card game "Iser" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicate a strong pipeline for future growth [3]

Group 1 - The game ETF (159869) has seen a narrowing decline of 0.25% as of September 30, with a net inflow of funds amounting to 1.298 billion yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The product scale of the game ETF has reached a new high of 10.574 billion yuan since its inception, facilitating investors in easily accessing leading A-share gaming companies [1] - In September 2025, a total of 145 domestic game licenses and 11 imported game licenses were issued, with several major companies receiving approvals for their games [1] Group 2 - The gaming sector is experiencing multiple catalysts including AI, content, and commercialization model transformations, making the game ETF (159869) an attractive investment opportunity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap platform driven by the resumption of game license approvals and AI-enabled game development, alongside the strategic adjustments in the company's self-developed game pipeline [1][2]. Group 1: TapTap Platform Value - TapTap has become a significant channel for game promotion, with online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1]. - The platform offers low or no revenue sharing, making it friendly for small and independent developers, and has emerged as a vital promotional channel due to the fragmentation of user time and the rise of vertical communities [1]. - TapTap provides comprehensive services including analysis, testing, and marketing promotion, enhancing its value to developers [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The developer-user flywheel effect is established, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, and an average monthly active user (MAU) of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 37% in user advertising ARPU [2]. - The total number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,195, a 25% year-on-year increase, boosting the demand for promotion [2]. - The strategic expansion into multi-platform and international markets, along with AI-enabled game development, is expected to enhance TapTap's revenue potential, with projections estimating revenue could reach 5 billion by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The self-developed game strategy has shown positive results since 2024, with a focus on core categories and efficient resource allocation, leading to successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" [3]. - The company has demonstrated the ability to develop enduring games through focused resources, continuous optimization, and frequent updates, with successful overseas contributions [3]. - Future game pipeline includes promising titles such as the strategy card game "Ither" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicating a solid reserve of upcoming products [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming industry [7]. Core Insights - The issuance of game licenses in September, with approvals for companies like Kaiying, Giant Network, and Point Point, indicates a positive trend in the new game cycle and overall industry prosperity. The performance of several new games, such as Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" and G-bits' "Staff Sword Legend," is expected to drive the product cycle and industry sentiment upward. The combination of new game cycles, favorable policies, and AI catalysis suggests that the gaming sector still has upward valuation potential, warranting continued attention to investment opportunities in this area [2][4][6]. Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In September, a total of 156 game licenses were issued, including 145 domestic and 11 imported games. This brings the total number of domestic game licenses issued this year to 1,195, nearing the annual total of 1,306 from 2024 [6][9]. Market Performance - The gaming market in China showed a month-on-month growth, with August revenues reaching 29.263 billion yuan, a 0.61% increase from the previous month. The mobile gaming market accounted for 21.541 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.85% month-on-month growth [9]. New Game Launches - Several new games are set to launch or have recently launched, including Kaiying's "The Legend of the Adventure" and Heartbeat's "Yise," which quickly topped the iOS and TapTap charts. The report highlights a rich pipeline of upcoming games from major developers, indicating potential for revenue growth [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the internet media industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing significance of cloud computing and gaming, highlighting the potential for innovation in video group broadcasting. It notes that AI and self-developed chips are pivotal for value reassessment in global internet cloud computing [2]. - The gaming sector is described as fundamentally sound, with mid-term performance and long-term narratives supporting its status as one of the strongest themes in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [2]. - Long videos are expected to benefit from recent regulatory policies, which aim to enhance content supply and project ROI, while short videos are innovating with interactive formats [2]. Summary by Sections Cloud Computing - Alibaba's cloud strategy focuses on becoming a super AI cloud, with significant investments in AI infrastructure projected to increase data center energy consumption tenfold by 2032. The report anticipates a positive revenue trajectory driven by advancements in domestic models and chips [2]. - Key companies to watch include Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Kingsoft, with their cloud computing and AI applications expected to drive growth [2]. Gaming - The gaming industry has seen a continuous revenue acceleration over four quarters, with profit margins at their highest since Q2 2023. The report forecasts a PE range of 15-20x for 2026, suggesting that valuations are not overstated [2]. - Notable companies include Tencent, NetEase, Giant Network, and others, with specific titles and projects expected to contribute to their growth [2]. Long Video - The report highlights the establishment of a policy bottom for the broadcasting industry, which is expected to resolve core contradictions in content supply. The focus is on the potential for innovation in variety shows and the integration of short video elements into long video formats [2]. - Companies like Mango TV are noted for their upcoming projects and stable operations, while the report suggests that long video platforms are adapting to new interactive programming trends [2]. Other Key Areas - The report also mentions emotional consumption sectors such as NetEase Cloud Music, Pop Mart, and others, indicating a broad interest in various entertainment segments [2].