行 业 研 究 2025 年 08 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 96% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 传媒 沪深300 相关研究报告 《关注端游复苏趋势，继续布局游戏/ 音乐/潮玩/AI 应用—行业点评报告》 -2025.8.18 《GPT-5 或加速 AI 应用落地，游戏、 国 漫 IP 持续精彩 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.8.10 《关注模型/Agent 推新迭代，布局 AI 应用、IP 新消费—行业周报》-2025.8.3 AI 持续赋能平台经济，关注高景气端游及 IP 新品 ——行业周报 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 平台公司财报验证 AI 对业绩的赋能，DeepSeek-V3.1 发布，继续布局 AI 应用 根据快手财报，2025Q2 实现线上营销服务收入 198 亿元（同比+12.8%），主要 系 AI 优化产品营销方案，推动客户投放增加，其中 UAX 解决方案消耗占外循 环总消耗的比例提升至 65%，Q2 实现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xindong Company (02400) has announced a positive earnings forecast, expecting significant revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance from self-developed games [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xindong Company anticipates revenue of no less than RMB 30.5 billion for the first half of 2025, representing an approximate year-on-year increase of 37% [1] - The expected net profit is projected to be no less than RMB 7.9 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of about 215% [1] Group 2: Game Development and Releases - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to the strong performance of self-developed games such as "Ragnarok M: Origins," "Xindong Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite" [1] - The company’s upcoming RPG "Iser" is set to enter global open beta testing on September 25, with a final paid test scheduled from August 28 to September 8 [1] - "Iser" has already launched its international version on June 5, ranking in the top 50 in sales across 30 countries and regions, with first-month revenue expected to exceed RMB 100 million [1] - The domestic version is planned for release on September 25, with potential market expansions in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of Xindong Company, with a mid-year revenue forecast of at least 3.05 billion yuan (approximately +37% year-on-year) and a net profit of at least 790 million yuan (approximately +215% year-on-year) for the first half of 2025, exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - The self-developed games such as "Ragnarok M: Original Server," "Xindong Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite" have shown strong performance, driving revenue and gross margin increases [1] - The TapTap app maintains stable monthly active users (MAU) year-on-year, with improvements in advertising algorithms and user engagement contributing to revenue and profit growth [1] Group 3 - The new game "Xindong Town" achieved a top 10 ranking in sales following its anniversary version launch on July 17, marking a new high for the year; the overseas version of "Etheria: Restart" entered the top 50 in the U.S. sales chart, demonstrating strong performance [1] - The domestic version of "Etheria" is scheduled for full platform testing on September 25, expected to contribute to new user growth; Xindong's next-generation self-developed game "Ragnarok RO: Guardian of Eternal Love 2" will begin its first test on TapTap in December, supporting the company's long-term growth [1] - TapTap has significantly increased the number of PC games released this year, focusing on the launch and operation of the PC version, indicating growth potential [1] Group 4 - Xindong announced the acquisition of a 5.3% stake in MiAO for $14 million; MiAO is a startup founded by former Giant CEO Wu Meng, with a team experienced in high DAU social games [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has released its mid-year performance forecast for 2025, indicating a revenue of no less than 3.05 billion (approximately +37% year-on-year) and a net profit of no less than 790 million (approximately +215% year-on-year), exceeding expectations [2][4]. - The strong performance of self-developed games and the continued growth trend of TapTap are key drivers for the company's success [2][4]. - The company has a promising pipeline of new games and is expanding its community platform, which is expected to contribute to future growth [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a revenue of at least 3.05 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 37% [2][4]. - The net profit is projected to be at least 790 million, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 215% [2][4]. Game Development and Community Growth - Self-developed games such as "Ragnarok M: Beginner's Server," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite" have shown strong performance, boosting revenue and gross margin [7]. - TapTap's monthly active users (MAU) remain stable year-on-year, with improvements in advertising algorithms and user engagement driving revenue and profit growth [7]. - The company has successfully launched new games, with "Heart Town" achieving a top 10 ranking in sales and "Etheria: Restart" entering the top 50 in the U.S. sales chart [7]. Strategic Investments - The company is expanding its game portfolio by acquiring a 5.3% stake in MiAO for 14 million USD, a startup founded by the former CEO of Giant, which has expertise in social games [7].

Group 1 - The company expects a significant increase in H1 2025 performance, with revenue projected to be no less than 3.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 37%, and net profit expected to be no less than 790 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 215% [1] - The strong year-on-year growth is primarily driven by the performance of self-developed games such as "Ragnarok M: Beginning Server," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite," which have boosted revenue and improved gross margins [1] - TapTap's revenue and profit continue to grow due to improvements in advertising algorithms and increased user engagement, despite stable average monthly active users [1] Group 2 - The game "Yise" launched its international version on June 5, entering the top 50 best-selling games in 30 countries and regions, with expected revenue exceeding 100 million yuan in the first month [2] - "Heart Town" celebrated its anniversary with events and saw its iPhone game ranking rise to 7th place, with plans for an international version launch in H2 2025, potentially bringing significant revenue increments [2] - The company is leveraging its extensive experience in developing and operating multiple products based on the same IP, with "Guarding Eternal Love 2" expected to be a key long-term product driving growth [2] Group 3 - The TapTap game conference showcased 50 new game updates, including 13 PC games, marking a diversification in the platform's offerings [3] - The PC version of TapTap has officially launched, allowing users to purchase, download, and install PC games, with over 100 top games currently available [3] - The PC version operates on a no-revenue-sharing model, which may further expand growth opportunities for the platform [3]

公司预告净利润同增超过215% 机构：中金公司 研究员：张雪晴/余歆瑶 1）"游戏大版本更新"新功能（重视长青游戏单个大版本更新服务，仿照新游戏上线为产品提供完整服 务流程，推出新版本预告/前瞻直播/新版本预约/新版本预约排行榜等功能）；2）TapTapPC 桌面版（当 前已具有一定用户规模）。 未来关注：TapTap 小游戏平台、AI 制作游戏（vibe coding，聚焦制作游戏的第一步和最后一步）。 盈利预测与估值 2H25：我们估计环比利润增量来自于：1）《心动小镇》暑期周年庆提升商业化水平，买量ROI 相对可 控；2）《伊瑟》增量流水及部分利润贡献（国际服6 月上线后整体表现好于市场预期，国服及港澳台 服等于9/25上线，关注公测用户表现）。 考虑TapTap盈利水平提升、游戏表现好于预期，上调25/26 年归母净利润预期66%/81%至16.5/19.5 亿 元，对应当前股价25/26 年15/13x P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，综合考虑盈利预测调整和新游预期逐步消 化，上调目标价49%至82.5 港元（25/26 年22/18x P/E）。上行空间45%。 风险 26 年已有核心产品接续：开放世界 ...

Summary of Xindong Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xindong Company - **Industry**: Gaming and Information Services Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Performance**: Xindong Company's gaming business revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in overseas markets for "Ragnarok" and significant contributions from "Torchlight" and "Xindong Town" [2][4] 2. **Profit Improvement**: The company saw a notable improvement in profit margins, with the gaming business gross margin increasing due to a higher proportion of overseas business, which has a better margin [2][4] 3. **Future Growth Potential**: Xindong Company has high growth certainty, with upcoming launches of "Iser" in multiple regions and the overseas version of "Xindong Town" expected by the end of 2025, which could significantly contribute to revenue [2][5] 4. **TapTap Platform**: The TapTap platform benefits from algorithmic recommendations and AI capabilities, enhancing ad targeting and improving ROI for advertisers, suggesting it should be valued as a vertical gaming community or tech platform [2][6] 5. **Revenue Forecast Adjustments**: The company raised its gaming business revenue forecast for 2025 by 32.4%, with similar adjustments for 2026 and 2027 nearing 35%, while also increasing overall gross margin by 4 percentage points [2][7] 6. **Profit Structure Changes**: The profit structure is shifting, with TapTap's profit growth potentially surpassing that of the gaming business, indicating a need for a distributed valuation approach [2][12][13] 7. **Market Valuation**: Using a distributed valuation method, the target market value is approximately 37 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 81 HKD, indicating further upside potential from current stock prices [3][14] 8. **Product Line Clarity**: The product line for the next two years is clear, with "Iser" contributing in Q4 2025 and "Xindong Town" expected to generate significant revenue in 2026 [10][26] 9. **Success Rate of Products**: The high success rate of Xindong's products is attributed to systematic resource investment and management optimization, leading to successful launches like "Xindong Town" and "Iser" [11] 10. **TapTap's Unique Business Model**: TapTap operates as both a game community and distribution channel, with a zero-revenue-sharing model that attracts many mid-tier companies, thus reducing their costs [19] 11. **Advertising Revenue Growth**: TapTap's advertising revenue is closely linked to its monthly active users (MAU), with a 33% increase in ad revenue despite a decline in MAU in 2023 [20] 12. **Profitability of TapTap**: In 2024, TapTap generated 1.5 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit exceeding 400 million RMB, and the net profit margin is expected to rise to around 40% in 2025 [25] 13. **Overall Performance Outlook**: The overall performance outlook for Xindong Company remains optimistic, with adjusted earnings forecasts reflecting strong growth potential driven by successful game launches and the profitability of the TapTap platform [27] Other Important Insights - **Market Discrepancies**: There are significant discrepancies in market valuation, with traditional views comparing Xindong to larger gaming companies like Tencent and NetEase, which may not accurately reflect its current growth trajectory [8][9] - **Focus on Key Projects**: Key projects to watch include "Ragnarok" and "Torchlight," with "Ragnarok" performing particularly well in Southeast Asia [15] - **User Engagement Strategies**: "Xindong Town" has maintained user engagement through frequent events, contributing to its strong performance in 2025 [16][17] - **Valuation Perspectives**: Different viewpoints exist regarding the valuation of "Xindong Town," with suggestions to evaluate it separately as a platform due to its complex profit structure [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][11] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth driven by new and existing games, as well as the TapTap platform, with a projected revenue of at least 3.05 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 37% [4][8] - Net profit is anticipated to be no less than 790 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of around 215%, exceeding previous expectations [4][8] - The performance boost is attributed to successful self-developed games and improvements in the TapTap platform's advertising algorithms and user engagement [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 6.466 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29% [7] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.71 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 110.7% [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 71% in 2025, while the net margin is projected at 26.4% [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 3.5 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.0 times [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has raised its profit forecasts significantly for 2025 and 2026, reflecting better-than-expected performance from TapTap and game titles, leading to an upgraded target price and a maintained outperform rating [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company has increased its net profit expectations for 2025 and 2026 by 66% and 81% respectively, reaching 1.65 billion and 1.95 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15x and 13x [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue of no less than 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 37% [2]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be no less than 790 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of over 215% [2]. Group 2: Game Performance - The solid performance in the first half of 2025 is attributed to titles such as "Ragnarok M: Beginners' Server," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight," which have driven revenue growth and improved gross margins [3]. - The second half of 2025 is expected to see profit growth from the anniversary celebration of "Heart Town" and the launch of "Iser" on September 25, with the international version performing better than market expectations [3]. Group 3: TapTap Growth - TapTap has shown steady revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by improvements in advertising algorithms and increased user engagement [4]. - The company plans to focus on significant updates for games and the development of a PC version of TapTap, which has already garnered a user base [4]. - Future initiatives include enhancing the TapTap mini-game platform and exploring AI-driven game development [4].

Group 1 - TapTap held its 2025 game release conference, showcasing a record 50 new game updates, including 45 unreleased titles and 13 PC games [1] - The introduction of PC games at the conference marks a significant expansion for TapTap, with titles like "Mingmo: Yuanshu" and "Zongmen Qiyuan" featured [1] - TapTap's PC version has been launched, allowing users to purchase and download over 100 top games without revenue sharing, which is expected to enhance growth potential [1] Group 2 - The self-developed game "Yise" has been successful in international markets, ranking in the top 50 in over 30 countries, with a domestic launch scheduled for September 25 [2] - "Xindong Xiaozhen" is set to celebrate its anniversary with a collaboration event, and its international version is anticipated to launch in late 2025, potentially increasing revenue [2] - The upcoming MMORPG "Xianjing Chuanqi RO: Shouhu Yongheng de Ai 2" is expected to leverage the established IP and the company's experience to perform well in the global market [2]