钴行业动态报告：原料进口大幅下降，钴价第二轮上涨启 动 20250920 摘要 刚果金延长钴出口禁令，叠加中国海关数据显示 8 月钴进口量环比大降 60%，加剧原料短缺，短期内供应紧张将推动钴价上涨。 钴价经历多轮周期，当前由刚果金政策主导的上涨与前两轮需求驱动不 同，预计涨幅或不及前两次，但长期来看 35 万元/吨是可见的中枢，短 期原料短缺可能推升至 40 万元/吨。 全球钴资源集中度高，刚果金储量占比 55%，产量占比高达 75%，其 政策变动对市场影响巨大。刚果金政府有强烈的挺价诉求，以保护经济 利益和财政收入。 多数钴矿企业产量下降，仅洛阳钼业产量增长。嘉能可等企业因钴价下 跌而减产或停产，钴生产成本依然存在，价格跌破 16 万元/吨时，多数 企业已停止生产。 2024 年电动汽车电池三元正极材料占钴需求 41%，消费电子钴酸锂正 极占 26%。短期内消费电子需求超预期，三元电池需求受铁锂挤压，但 长期来看固态电池落地后将以三元为主，钴需求潜力巨大。 Q&A 刚果金政府延长钴矿出口禁令对钴行业的影响是什么？ 刚果金政府计划再延长钴矿出口禁令两个月，这一决定将对全球钴行业产生重 大影响。首先，刚果金是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Greeenme intends to leverage its scarce resource business to acquire 1-2 small but high-quality listed companies, actively promote its tungsten business into the capital market, and push for its main entity to be listed in Hong Kong [1][14]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Greeenme achieved revenue of approximately 33.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of about 1.02 billion yuan, up 9.19% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of around 9.5 billion yuan, a 13.67% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 511 million yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year [2]. - Greeenme forecasts revenues exceeding 40 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan, and 60 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a potential doubling over three years [2]. Business Growth Areas - The fastest-growing segments from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be battery materials, tungsten resource recovery, and precious and rare metal recovery, with significant investments made in tungsten and precious metal recovery since last year [2][12]. - Nickel mining is a key growth driver, with Greeenme producing 51,600 tons of nickel metal in 2024, a 91% increase year-on-year, and generating revenue of 5.85 billion yuan from nickel, accounting for 17.61% of total revenue [5][6]. Nickel Market Insights - Greeenme's nickel production is projected to exceed 216,000 tons by 2027. The company ranks among the top three in the world for MHP nickel production capacity [5][9]. - Nickel prices have seen fluctuations, with a peak of $25,638 per ton in 2022, but have since declined to around $21,506 per ton in 2023 and are projected to be approximately $16,818 per ton in 2024 [7][9]. Strategic Initiatives - Greeenme is actively seeking to establish battery material production bases in Indonesia, collaborating with companies like EcoPro and Vale to create an integrated industrial park capable of producing approximately 30 GW of power batteries annually [10]. - The company aims to become a leading global supplier of scarce resource recycling, targeting the recovery of 25 types of scarce resources, with a goal of achieving over 10% of China's supply for each type [12][13]. Future Plans - Greeenme plans to sell 1-2 small listed companies to enhance its scarce resource business and is also looking to list its main entity in Hong Kong [1][14].

Core Viewpoint - Greeenme's revenue and profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 indicates a positive trend, with expectations for significant revenue increases in the coming years, driven by battery materials and metal recycling businesses [2][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Greeenme achieved revenue of approximately 33.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of about 1.02 billion yuan, up 9.19% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of around 9.5 billion yuan, a 13.67% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 511 million yuan, reflecting a 12.1% growth [2]. - Greeenme anticipates revenues exceeding 40 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan, and 60 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, aiming for a doubling of revenue over three years [2]. Business Growth Areas - The fastest-growing segments for Greeenme from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be battery materials, tungsten resource recycling, and precious and rare metal recycling [2][11]. - The company has made significant investments in tungsten resource recovery and precious metal recycling since last year [11]. Nickel Mining Operations - Greeenme's nickel metal output reached 51,600 tons in 2024, a 91% increase, with a total nickel resource capacity of 150,000 tons per year [4]. - Nickel business generated revenue of 5.85 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 17.61% of total revenue [4]. - The company aims to produce over 216,000 tons of nickel metal by 2027 [4]. Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have fluctuated, reaching a peak of $25,638 per ton in 2022 and dropping to around $21,506 per ton in 2023, with projections for 2024 at approximately $16,818 per ton [7][8]. - Greeenme's chairman highlighted the critical cost thresholds for nickel production, indicating that current prices are near the "survival line" for profitability [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Greeenme is expanding its operations in Indonesia, collaborating with other companies to establish a comprehensive industrial park for nickel refining and battery material production [10]. - The company plans to recover 25 types of scarce resources, aiming for over 10% of China's supply for each type [12]. Future Outlook - Greeenme's chairman predicts that by 2035, the market share of ternary batteries will equal that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, driven by global market expansion [8]. - The company is also pursuing acquisitions of smaller listed companies to enhance its tungsten business and plans to list its main entity in Hong Kong [13].