Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the cobalt industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The cobalt market is experiencing a supply-driven price increase, with significant price recovery following the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [1][4]. - The DRC's export ban, effective from February 22, 2025, aims to reduce historical inventory and stabilize cobalt prices, which had previously dropped due to oversupply [2][45]. - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow, driven by the electric vehicle (EV) sector and advancements in consumer electronics, with cobalt consumption projected to reach approximately 222,000 tons globally in 2024 [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Cobalt: A Strategic Battery Metal - Cobalt is recognized for its high melting point, magnetic properties, and unique catalytic performance, making it essential in battery applications [1][15]. - The price of cobalt has undergone three cycles of increase and decrease since 2017, with the current cycle being primarily supply-driven [13][14]. 2. Cobalt Raw Material Supply - Global cobalt reserves are concentrated in the DRC, which is the largest producer, contributing approximately 75.9% of the global cobalt output in 2024 [21][22]. - The DRC's export ban is expected to impact around 128,000 tons of global cobalt supply over seven months, tightening the market and potentially increasing prices [45][47]. 3. Demand for Cobalt - In 2024, the global cobalt consumption is projected to be about 222,000 tons, with electric vehicles accounting for 43% and consumer electronics for 30% of the demand [3][19]. - The demand for cobalt in high-temperature alloys is also expected to grow, particularly in aerospace and military applications [3][19]. 4. Price Outlook - Following the DRC's export ban, imports of cobalt intermediate products into China have significantly decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [4][9]. - The report anticipates further price increases for cobalt as imports remain low and demand recovers in the latter half of 2025 [4][9]. 5. Key Companies to Watch - Major players in the cobalt industry include Luoyang Molybdenum, which is the largest cobalt supplier globally, and other companies like Huayou Cobalt and Greeenmei, which are also significant contributors to cobalt production [6][20][41].

Group 1 - The stock price of Huayou Cobalt on August 5 was 42.46 yuan, down by 0.31 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.575 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.19% [1] - Huayou Cobalt is primarily engaged in the deep processing, research and development, production, and sales of cobalt new material products, including cobalt tetroxide, cobalt hydroxide, and cobalt sulfate [1] - The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between 2.6 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.62% to 67.59% [1] Group 2 - On August 5, the net outflow of main funds was 68.2981 million yuan, with a total net outflow of 1.412 billion yuan over the past five days [1]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is seeking to establish a cobalt pricing mechanism to promote domestic processing of cobalt, following a ban on cobalt exports [1][2] - The DRC accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt supply, and the export ban was implemented after cobalt prices fell significantly and production increased [1][2] - Since the export ban, cobalt prices have risen nearly 60%, while the price of cobalt hydroxide has more than doubled [1] Group 2 - The DRC does not want cobalt prices to exceed $40 per pound, a level seen in 2018 and 2022, and aims to stabilize cobalt prices [2] - China’s imports of cobalt intermediate products dropped over 60% in June, marking a significant decline since the DRC's export ban [2] - The DRC and the U.S. are working to establish a strategic partnership to attract more American investment in its mineral resources, including copper, cobalt, lithium, and tantalum [2] Group 3 - Rising cobalt prices may lead to increased battery costs, forcing automakers to raise prices and delaying the affordability of electric vehicles [3] - Strict control measures and rising prices could push electric vehicle battery manufacturers to shift towards cobalt-free battery technologies [3] - Companies like BYD and CATL are expanding their lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production, with Tesla using LFP batteries for 50% of its global sales in 2023 [3]

Export Ban Extension - The Congolese Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) has extended the temporary export ban on cobalt for an additional three months due to high inventory levels in the market [1][2] - The ban affects all cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), including industrial, semi-industrial, small-scale, and artisanal cobalt [2] Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt is a critical component in lithium-ion batteries, enhancing energy density and stability [1] - The DRC holds the largest cobalt reserves globally, with 6 million tons, accounting for 55% of the total land reserves [1] - Global cobalt production is projected to reach approximately 291,300 metric tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.39%, with the DRC contributing 220,000 tons, representing 75.86% of the total [1] Price Fluctuations - Following the initial export ban in February, cobalt prices rebounded nearly 60%, with the price of cobalt hydroxide doubling [2] - Prior to the ban, cobalt prices had fallen below $10 per pound, marking a significant decline due to a shift in supply-demand dynamics [2] Impact on Chinese Companies - Chinese companies, such as Daosheng Technology and Tengyuan Cobalt, reported no immediate impact from the export ban, citing sufficient raw material reserves [3] - Major cobalt producers in China, including Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt, have shown strong revenue growth, with Luoyang Molybdenum reporting revenue of 46.006 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 90.47% year-on-year [3] Inventory and Supply Chain - The extension of the export ban is expected to create a supply gap, accelerating the consumption of existing inventories and potentially driving cobalt prices higher [3][4] - Despite the ban, domestic cobalt salt production and inventory levels remain high, with limited effects on inventory depletion observed so far [4] Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain an optimistic view on cobalt prices, predicting that domestic cobalt prices may exceed 250,000 yuan per ton [5] - The DRC may implement export quotas in the long term to enhance its pricing power in the cobalt market [5] Emerging Demand - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow due to advancements in new technologies and the continued development of electric vehicles and consumer electronics [6] - Global cobalt consumption is projected to reach approximately 200,200 metric tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.15%, with China's consumption expected to rise by 5.6% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has reiterated a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., with a target price of HKD 8.5 for its H-shares, following the company's positive earnings forecast for the first half of the year, indicating significant year-on-year profit growth [1][2] Group 1: Production Costs and Profit Forecast - Management expects production costs to remain stable quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 but decrease year-on-year, with TFM copper mine costs projected between USD 5,500 and 6,000 per ton, and KFM copper mine costs between USD 3,000 and 3,500 per ton [1] - The company anticipates net profit for the first half of the year to reach between RMB 8.2 billion and 9.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 51% to 68%, aligning with Bank of America's predictions and exceeding market consensus [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Profit Growth - Profit growth is primarily driven by rising copper and cobalt prices, with Q2 2025 copper prices expected at USD 9,538 per ton, a 2% year-on-year decline but a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase; cobalt hydroxide prices increased by 61% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 188,000 per ton [2] - Increased production and sales volumes contributed to profit growth, with copper metal output for the first half of the year at 354,000 tons, a 13% year-on-year increase, and cobalt metal output at 61,000 tons, also a 13% year-on-year increase [2] - Q2 copper production is projected at 183,000 tons, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase and a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase, with annualized production exceeding 700,000 tons, surpassing the company's guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 tons for the year [2]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company, with a current stock price of 7.5 HKD [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading vertically integrated copper producer globally, with a strategic focus on the "Zambia-Congo" dual-core layout [1][7]. - The company aims to double its copper production from its own mines within the next five years, leveraging its strong resource endowment and ongoing projects [7][41]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, reaching 3.99 billion USD in 2024, a 43.5% year-on-year growth, attributed to rising copper prices and enhanced production capacity [18][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2011 through the restructuring of four Zambian copper enterprises and has since become a pioneer in overseas non-ferrous metal mining for Chinese enterprises [1][11]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 28.4 billion HKD and a total share capital of 3,902 million shares [2]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 25.611 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -10% [6]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 3.115 billion CNY, corresponding to a PE ratio of 8.6 [6][7]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a total ore resource of 436 million tons, ranking it among the top in the industry [31]. - The copper production from self-owned mines increased from 99,000 tons in 2020 to 159,000 tons in 2024, marking a growth of over 60% [37][41]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute approximately 1.67 billion USD in cash dividends for 2024, representing 42% of its total profit, maintaining a consistent dividend payout ratio of around 40% over the past five years [23][26]. Strategic Projects and Future Outlook - The company is actively expanding its resource base through various projects in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant investments planned for the coming years [27][53]. - The company has initiated several projects, including the Samba copper mine and Mwambashi copper mine, which are expected to contribute significantly to future production capacity [46][49].

Core Viewpoint - The company has received a regulatory inquiry from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its 2024 annual report disclosures, particularly focusing on its trading business and the recognition of revenue from standard warehouse receipt transactions. Group 1: Trading Business Overview - In the first half of 2024, the company's trading business revenue was 637 million yuan, which significantly increased to 2.602 billion yuan in the second half [1] - The total revenue from trading activities for 2024 was 3.268 billion yuan, with standard warehouse receipt transactions contributing 1.814 billion yuan [1] - The average gross margin for most traded products was less than 0.2%, with an overall average gross margin of -0.3%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Revenue Recognition and Accounting Practices - The company distinguishes between standard warehouse receipt business and other forms of trading, providing detailed disclosures on the top ten customers and suppliers, product types, transaction amounts, and relationships [1] - Revenue from non-financing trading is recognized using the gross method, while financing trading is recognized using the net method [4] - The company has implemented various internal controls to ensure the accuracy of revenue recognition related to metal trading, including analyzing the timing of control transfer and verifying supporting documents [7] Group 3: South African Onikin Mine Operations - The company has invested 26 million yuan in the Onikin Mine, with a book value of fixed assets at 128 million yuan and intangible assets (mining rights) at 4.3 million yuan [1] - Cumulative investments in the Onikin Mine from 2018 to 2024 amounted to 1.113 billion yuan, with significant expenditures on mining engineering and construction [8] - The company has faced challenges in resuming operations at the Onikin Mine due to various external factors, including public health events and changes in national policies [9] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The company plans to focus on the Tau Mine and 6th well for resource extraction in 2025, with a projected investment of approximately 27 million USD for the Tau Mine and 35 million USD for the W Mine over the next three years [9] - The development of the Onikin Mine is contingent on the company's financial situation, with ongoing assessments of the feasibility of various mining projects [9]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to significantly impact the cobalt market, leading to supply shortages and potential price increases, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt seeing substantial stock price gains as a result [1][2]. Supply and Demand Overview - DRC's cobalt production in 2024 is projected at 220,000 tons, accounting for 75.9% of global supply, with a monthly export of 18,000 tons. If the export ban is extended to six months, it could reduce exports by 108,000 tons, which is equivalent to 84% of China's cobalt demand for 2024 [1]. - China's cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 38% to 104,000 tons, while demand will slightly increase by 2.3% to 131,000 tons, resulting in a shift from a surplus of 42,000 tons to a shortage of 27,000 tons [1]. Industry Chain Impact - **Upstream Mining**: Non-DRC production is becoming a scarce asset. Huayou Cobalt's Indonesian capacity of 30,000 tons is expected to generate 5 billion yuan in revenue by 2025, despite being 10% more expensive than DRC production [2]. - **Midstream Smelting**: Companies like Greeenmei and Zhongwei Co. are adapting their raw material sources to reduce costs and mitigate risks associated with DRC's export policies [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The electric vehicle sector is increasing cobalt procurement by 50% year-on-year, while the 3C battery sector is expected to see an 8% increase in cobalt demand, indicating differing responses to market conditions [4]. Investment Landscape - Focus on non-DRC production and recycling sectors is recommended. Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources are positioned to benefit from reduced export risks, while recycling firms like Greenmei are expected to see a 120% increase in cobalt recovery by 2025 [5][6]. - The performance elasticity of companies is linked to their ability to increase non-DRC production, with a 10% increase in Indonesian capacity potentially raising profit margins by 3-5% [6]. Conclusion - The cobalt market is experiencing a short-term supply contraction due to administrative interventions, with a dual strategy recommended for investors: short-term trading opportunities in non-DRC production and long-term investments in cobalt recycling and low-cobalt battery technologies [7].

Group 1 - A cargo ship carrying 30,000 tons of ammonium sulfate recently departed from Taizhou Port to South America, with Jiangsu Jiangnong New Materials Co., Ltd. aiming to export 900,000 tons this year, a 10% increase from last year [1] - Taizhou Port achieved a cargo throughput of 420 million tons in 2024, ranking second in the province and eleventh nationally, with a first-quarter throughput of 105 million tons and a container throughput growth of 4.3% year-on-year [1] - Taizhou International Container Terminal Co., Ltd. has obtained permits for handling nine types of dangerous goods, enhancing logistics support for pharmaceutical import enterprises in the region [1] Group 2 - In March, Jiangyan Youlibo Container Terminal achieved a historic milestone by surpassing 5,000 TEUs in monthly container operations, with inland container terminal (ICT) contributing 41.63% to the total throughput [2] - In April, China State Construction Engineering Corporation's first overseas integrated football stadium project in Serbia marked a significant step for Chinese steel structure enterprises in Europe, with the first batch of components weighing 1,340 tons shipped [2] - The project utilized a BIM digital platform for seamless integration of design, process, and production, ensuring timely delivery and installation [2] Group 3 - Taizhou has been selected as a national logistics hub city, presenting new opportunities and challenges for port development, focusing on health, marine equipment, and high-tech shipbuilding industries [3] - The city aims to enhance the integration of port, industry, and urban development, with plans to waive tolls for container shipping vessels and prioritize their passage [3] - Efforts are underway to increase the proportion of berths for vessels over 50,000 tons, particularly to support major projects in the region [3]

Group 1 - The company focuses on the exploration, mining, smelting, and sales of strategic mineral resources, primarily gold, copper, and cobalt, with a diversified layout of "resource development + industrial synergy" [20][21][24] - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of RMB 5.133 billion, a decrease of 4.48% compared to the previous year, while the operating cost was RMB 4.897 billion, down 2.47% [25][26] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB -0.97 billion, a slight improvement in loss compared to the previous year [25][26] Group 2 - The company has made significant progress in its South African gold mining project, achieving an annual gold ore mining volume of over 300,000 tons [6][21] - The copper production line in the Democratic Republic of Congo faced challenges in the first half of 2024 due to insufficient ore supply and local power outages, but production is expected to stabilize in the second half [7][9] - The company emphasizes sustainable development, implementing green practices and community engagement in its operations [9][10] Group 3 - The global economic recovery provides a stable demand foundation for mining products, while technological innovation opens new paths for cost reduction and efficiency improvement [16][17] - The company is actively expanding its overseas operations and resource reserves, particularly in South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo, to enhance its competitive position [10][20] - The company has a strong resource reserve and quality, with significant mining operations in both South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo [24][26]