Core Viewpoint - The company is facing pressure on overall revenue due to warmer weather, leading to a year-on-year decline in total channel revenue in the mid-single digits for Q3 2025, while maintaining a focus on marketing investments for the Olympics and product innovation [1][3]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total channel revenue decreased in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a month-on-month weakening trend observed from July to September [1]. - Breakdown of revenue by channel shows offline channels experiencing a high single-digit decline, with wholesale channels down significantly and direct sales channels down in the mid-single digits; online channels, however, saw a high single-digit growth [1]. Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts have deepened across channels, with overall channel discounts increasing in the low single digits year-on-year; the wholesale channel saw a slight increase, while direct sales and e-commerce channels experienced a more significant increase [2]. - Inventory levels are manageable, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio maintained at 5-6 months; it is expected to be controlled at 4-5 months by year-end [2]. Store Expansion - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores from the previous quarter and 15 stores from the previous year; direct stores decreased by 46 from the previous year, while wholesale stores increased by 61 [2]. Product Innovation - The company is actively promoting new products, including the launch of the superbeng capsule for key products like the Feidian 6 and Chitu 9, as well as new basketball and outdoor products [2]. Marketing Initiatives - The company is enhancing its marketing efforts, including the launch of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics gear for the Chinese sports delegation and collaborations for skiing events [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company aims to maintain revenue stability through 2025, with projected revenues of 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively; net profits are projected at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026, with a strong buy recommendation maintained [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Li Ning (02331.HK) with a target price not specified [2][5] Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company's overall revenue faced pressure due to warmer weather, resulting in a year-on-year decline in total revenue in the mid-single digits. Despite deeper discounts, inventory remains controllable, and the company will continue to optimize channel structure while investing in Olympic marketing and product innovation. Management maintains guidance for flat revenue and high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 [1][5] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 17X for 2025 and 15X for 2026 [1][5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with a weakening trend observed month by month from July to September. Offline channels saw a high single-digit decline, while online channels experienced high single-digit growth [5][6] - The overall discount level increased in Q3 2025, with inventory levels remaining healthy and controllable, expected to be within 4-5 months by year-end [5][6] Store Expansion and Product Innovation - The number of main brand stores increased to 6,132 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net addition of 33 stores compared to the previous quarter. The company continues to push for product innovation, with new launches planned in running, basketball, and outdoor categories [5][6] Marketing and Brand Strategy - The company is actively promoting its brand through Olympic marketing initiatives, including the release of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics Chinese sports delegation award equipment and collaborations in skiing events [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.74 billion, 30.29 billion, and 31.87 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0%, 5%, and 5% respectively. Net profit projections are 2.4 billion, 2.71 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan, with growth rates of -21%, 13%, and 9% respectively [6][9]

投资要点：公司发布2024 年报与2025 一季报。2024 年实现营业收入35.23 亿元，同比-4.5%；实现归母 净利润0.21 亿元，同比扭亏。分季度看，公司24Q4 实现营业收入11.88 亿元，同比-11.8%，实现归母净 利润0.41 亿元，同比扭亏；25Q1 实现营业收入9.6 亿元，同比+13.2%，实现归母净利润0.26 亿元，同 比+3.3%。业绩符合预期。 展望后续，公司主业拐点向上趋势明确，同时探索具身智能机器人等AI 应用延伸，打造新的成长级。 主业方面，智能装备业务将加快国际化拓展，全力服务特斯拉、Rivian、沃尔沃、大众等战略客户，推 动国际业务规模与质量双提升；电机电控零部件方面，公司主流的三合一产品将继续在理想、奇瑞等车 型进一步上量，持续提升市场占有率，带动收入、盈利继续改善。同时，公司基于传统装备业务的长期 积累，进行了具身智能机器人工业应用场景的开发，以及在电机电控零部件领域探索eVTOL、具身智 能机器人、专用机械等新兴应用场景。 2025 年公司将积极推动新兴业务布局，建立公司新的增长极。 下调盈利预测，维持"增持"评级。考虑到公司装备业务低毛利项目交付节奏、盈 ...