南华期货集运周报 —— 现货运价延续下行趋势 2025/08/17 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣（Z0021065） 1. 摘要 当周期货标的现货指数上海出口结算运价指数（SCFIS）欧洲航线继续下行，美西航线降幅收窄。中国 出口集装箱运价指数（CCFI）、上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）和宁波出口集装箱运价指数（NCFI）均 继续下降，但降幅收敛。 分航线来看，SCFI欧洲航线继续下行，且降幅扩大，美西航线和美东航线均继续下行，但降幅收窄。当 周期价主要影响因素仍为欧线现舱报价。当周主流船司8月底现舱报价进一步下探，且降幅相对较大，带降了 期货价格的估值。 对于后市而言，可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价变动和欧线市场基本面。 当前欧线现舱报价与SCFI欧线均继续下行，但考虑期价至相对短期低位，期价降幅收敛或维持震荡的可 能性相对较大。 2. 策略 期现（基差）策略：交易者宜暂时保持观察。 套利（跨期）策略：可暂时保持观望。 | | EC2508 | EC2510 | EC2512 | EC2602 | EC2604 | EC2606 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index for European routes (SCFIS) continued to decline this week, and the decline in the US West route widened significantly. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall. The main influencing factors for the futures price this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments. Looking ahead, one can continue to monitor the changes in spot cabin quotes on European routes by shipping companies and the fundamentals of the European route market. Given that the current spot cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFIS European route are both falling, but considering that the futures price is at a relatively short - term low, it is more likely that the decline in the futures price will converge or the price will remain volatile [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily keep observing [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 2. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points, and the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments [3]. 3. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 4, the SCFIS European route, the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline in the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 8, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall. In terms of routes, the decline in North American routes widened. The SCFI US West route decreased by 9.80% month - on - month ( - 2.23% the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 10.68% month - on - month ( - 7.46% the previous week), and the SCFI European route also saw an expanded decline, decreasing by 4.39% month - on - month ( - 1.87% the previous week) [8]. 4. Spot Information - Demand Side - Not summarized as specific demand - side data analysis is not provided in a concise form in the text. 5. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 8, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 2.0%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 42,946 TEU, accounting for 0.9% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships between 12,000 and 16,999 TEU was 98,873 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 102.2 thousand TEU from last week, reaching 657.4 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 25.5 thousand TEU, reaching 221.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port increased by 24.1 thousand TEU, reaching 98.2 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 6.0 thousand TEU, reaching 103.0 thousand TEU [27][30]. 6. Spread Analysis - The current SCFIS European route continued to decline, but the month - on - month decline slightly converged to 0.81%, closing at 2297.86 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1421.8 points on Monday, and the basis narrowed slightly compared to last week. Traders are advised to temporarily observe. The inter - period contract spread combinations of the container shipping European route this week: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 635.0 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 311.0 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 324.0 points. Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37].