上海出口结算运价指数(SCFIS)

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南华期货集运周报:9月初现货报价转升为降-20250825
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, while that for the US West routes rebounded. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall, with slightly wider declines. The futures price was mainly affected by the current cabin quotes on European routes. The current cabin quotes of major shipping companies at the beginning of September turned from rising to falling, pulling down the futures price valuation. For the future market, one can continue to focus on the changes in the current cabin quotes of shipping companies on European routes and the fundamentals of the European route market. The current cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFI European routes both continued to decline, and the futures price was more likely to maintain a slight downward trend in oscillation, showing a trend relay state. The near - month contracts might experience a short - term rebound after falling to a low level [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Abstract - The Shanghai Export Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes of the current - period futures target continued to decline, while that for US West routes rebounded. The CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall, with slightly wider declines. The futures price was mainly affected by European route current - cabin quotes. The current - cabin quotes of major shipping companies at the beginning of September turned from rising to falling, pulling down the futures price valuation. For the future, pay attention to European route quotes and market fundamentals. The futures price may oscillate slightly downward, and near - month contracts may rebound after hitting lows [1]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily observe [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 3.3. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts declined. For example, the closing price of EC2510 fell 4.70% from the previous week to 1309.0 points, and the settlement price dropped 3.57% to 1324.0 points. The main influencing factor was the European route current - cabin quotes [3]. 3.4. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 18, the SCFIS European route continued to decline with a 2.47% month - on - month decrease (previous value - 2.71%), while the US West route rebounded with a 2.23% increase (previous value - 4.25%). As of August 22, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI continued to fall with wider declines. In terms of routes, the North American routes' declines widened, and the European route decline also expanded [8]. 3.5. Spot Information - Demand Side - There are data on the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in the deployed capacity of different routes, as well as the latest shipping regional trade capacity and its month - on - month changes [20][23][24]. 3.6. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 23, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 4.0%. The idle capacity of 17000TEU+ container ships was 37954TEU, accounting for 0.8% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships was 82977TEU, accounting for 1.0% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 34.4 thousand TEU to 609.7 thousand TEU; Rotterdam Port decreased by 41.3 thousand TEU to 199.5 thousand TEU; Antwerp Port increased by 9.4 thousand TEU to 93.7 thousand TEU; Hamburg Port decreased by 3.8 thousand TEU to 109.8 thousand TEU [27][30]. 3.7. Spread Analysis - The current - period SCFIS European route continued to decline with a stable 2.47% month - on - month decrease, closing at 2180.17 points. The basis of the main contract EC2510 first narrowed slightly from last week and then widened slightly. The European route current - cabin quotes of major shipping companies continued to decline, leading the futures price trend. As the container shipping market is about to exit the traditional peak season, demand support is gradually decreasing. The basis remains at a relatively high level compared to the previous period. Traders should temporarily observe in the spot - futures aspect. The spreads of the container shipping European route inter - period contract combinations such as EC2508 - EC2510, EC2508 - EC2512, and EC2510 - EC2512 are given, and traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37][38].
南华期货集运周报:现货运价延续下行趋势-20250818
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 08:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate of the container shipping industry continues the downward trend. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, and the decline of the US West route narrowed. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to decline, but the decline converged. For the future market, attention can be paid to the changes in the current cabin quotes of shipping companies on European routes and the fundamentals of the European route market. Considering that the futures price has reached a relatively short - term low, the decline of the futures price may converge or maintain a shock [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and temporarily wait and see in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.盘面回顾 (Market Review) - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points; the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors of the week came from the current cabin quotes of European routes and route adjustments [3]. 4.现货信息 (Spot Information) 4.1 运价 (Freight Rates) - As of August 11, the European route of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS), the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (the previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline of the freight rate on the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (the previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 15, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to decline, but the decline converged. In terms of different routes, the decline of North American routes narrowed, the SCFI US West route decreased by 3.51% month - on - month ( - 9.80% in the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 2.61% month - on - month ( - 10.68% in the previous week), and the decline of the SCFI European route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 7.19% ( - 4.39% in the previous week) [8]. 4.2 需求面 (Demand Side) - The content mainly shows the week - on - week and year - on - year changes of the deployed capacity of different routes, as well as the latest shipping regional trade capacity and its month - on - month changes, but no specific summary data is provided [20][22][23]. 4.3 供应端 (Supply Side) - As of August 16, the idle capacity ratio of global container ships was 2.4%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 61,610 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships from 12,000 to 16,999 TEU was 109,419 TEU, accounting for 1.4% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 82.1 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 575.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 19.0 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 240.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port decreased by 13.9 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 84.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 10.6 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 113.6 thousand TEU [27][30]. 5.价差解析 (Spread Analysis) - The current Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, and the month - on - month decline widened to 2.71%, reporting 2235.48 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1408.8 points on Monday. The basis slightly narrowed from the previous week and then slightly widened. The current cabin quotes of mainstream shipping companies on European routes continued to decline, leading the trend of futures prices. As the container shipping market is about to leave the traditional peak season, the support from demand gradually decreases. Based on the current spot freight rate situation, although it has declined significantly, it still maintains a relative level, so the basis is still at a relatively high level compared with the previous period. Traders are advised to temporarily observe [35][37]. - The spreads of the inter - period contract combinations of container shipping European routes in the current week were as follows: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 710.2 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 320.8 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 389.4 points. Continuing the previous logic, as the 08 contract is about to enter the delivery month, the fluctuation range of the futures price has converged and is generally more stable. The 10 contract declined significantly during the week due to the further decline of the current cabin quotes and the influence of the capital side, resulting in a relatively significant increase in the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination during the week. Traders can temporarily wait and see [38].
南华期货集运周报:期价维持震荡,SCFI欧线降幅扩大-20250811
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:47
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index for European routes (SCFIS) continued to decline this week, and the decline in the US West route widened significantly. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall. The main influencing factors for the futures price this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments. Looking ahead, one can continue to monitor the changes in spot cabin quotes on European routes by shipping companies and the fundamentals of the European route market. Given that the current spot cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFIS European route are both falling, but considering that the futures price is at a relatively short - term low, it is more likely that the decline in the futures price will converge or the price will remain volatile [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily keep observing [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 2. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points, and the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments [3]. 3. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 4, the SCFIS European route, the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline in the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 8, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall. In terms of routes, the decline in North American routes widened. The SCFI US West route decreased by 9.80% month - on - month ( - 2.23% the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 10.68% month - on - month ( - 7.46% the previous week), and the SCFI European route also saw an expanded decline, decreasing by 4.39% month - on - month ( - 1.87% the previous week) [8]. 4. Spot Information - Demand Side - Not summarized as specific demand - side data analysis is not provided in a concise form in the text. 5. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 8, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 2.0%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 42,946 TEU, accounting for 0.9% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships between 12,000 and 16,999 TEU was 98,873 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 102.2 thousand TEU from last week, reaching 657.4 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 25.5 thousand TEU, reaching 221.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port increased by 24.1 thousand TEU, reaching 98.2 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 6.0 thousand TEU, reaching 103.0 thousand TEU [27][30]. 6. Spread Analysis - The current SCFIS European route continued to decline, but the month - on - month decline slightly converged to 0.81%, closing at 2297.86 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1421.8 points on Monday, and the basis narrowed slightly compared to last week. Traders are advised to temporarily observe. The inter - period contract spread combinations of the container shipping European route this week: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 635.0 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 311.0 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 324.0 points. Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37].