2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 户到教 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | 戸到数 | | Sales - V id ad 从业资格号：F03101843 | | 2025/9/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1193 | 2557 | 1052 | | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 1349 | 3307 | 1154 | | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | -11.56% | -22.68% | -8.84% | | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 现值 | 1193 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Spot freight rates are maintaining a low level, the bulk market is generally weak, the US has cut the benchmark interest rate again, and market pessimism persists. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 903.32 points, down 11.71%; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78%; the NCFI for the US - West route on September 12 was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% [1]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24%; the SCFI US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1%; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [1]. Economic Data - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, higher than in July and the highest since May 2024 [1]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4 [2]. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff issue has evolved into a trade negotiation problem between the US and other countries. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [3]. Contract Information - On September 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1105.9, down 2.08%, with a trading volume of 1.96 million lots and an open interest of 4.72 million lots, a decrease of 2436 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Near - month contracts may show weak and volatile trends due to the continuous decline of spot freight rates and the intensification of the Middle - East conflict, while far - month contracts may have strong and volatile trends due to the impact of China - US economic and trade talks [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. - On September 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1163.1, with a decline of 1.57%, the trading volume was 17,800 lots, and the open interest was 47,800 lots, an increase of 161 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, showing continuous improvement [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4, both higher than expected [2]. Geopolitical Events - On September 15, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched 4 drones to attack 2 Israeli targets, including 3 drones attacking Ramon Airport and 1 attacking an Israeli military target [5]. - On September 14, an air - raid alert was sounded near Ramon Airport, and the Israeli military intercepted a drone from Yemen [5]. - On September 14, Hamas suspended the cease - fire and hostage - exchange negotiations with Israel, blaming Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for obstructing the talks [5]. Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term Strategy**: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions near 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions near 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try due to large fluctuations [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - SCFI is on a downward trend, the market is under pressure and volatile, and it's not recommended to increase positions. Instead, set stop - losses [1] - Given geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On August 25, SCFIS (European route) was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% [2] - On August 29, NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02%; NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23%; NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% [2] - On August 29, SCFI was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points; SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21%; SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% [2] - On August 29, CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6%; CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% [2] Economic Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, service PMI was 50.7, and composite PMI rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - US August Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022; service PMI was 55.4 [3] Market Conditions - As of August 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1261.0, down 2.15%, with a trading volume of 25,200 lots and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 988 lots from the previous day [4] Strategies - Short - term: For risk - takers, it's recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage: In the context of international instability, it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [5] - Long - term: It's recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for a pull - back to stabilize before making further decisions [5] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5] - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a unified rate of 83.64% [6] - On August 29, the Israeli military continued operations in the Middle East, including major strikes on Houthi targets [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Given the geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. - In the short - term, risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trends and do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the correction to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions for the arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period [3]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. Contract and Market Conditions - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, with a decline of 0.89%, a trading volume of 1.80 million lots, and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical and Trade News - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The Israeli - Palestinian conflict continues, with the Israeli military's attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip and the subsequent responses from both sides [5]. - The US will suspend the tax - free treatment for imported packages worth $800 or less from August 29, and 25 countries have announced the suspension of sending packages to the US [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, while that for the US West routes rebounded. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall, with slightly wider declines. The futures price was mainly affected by the current cabin quotes on European routes. The current cabin quotes of major shipping companies at the beginning of September turned from rising to falling, pulling down the futures price valuation. For the future market, one can continue to focus on the changes in the current cabin quotes of shipping companies on European routes and the fundamentals of the European route market. The current cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFI European routes both continued to decline, and the futures price was more likely to maintain a slight downward trend in oscillation, showing a trend relay state. The near - month contracts might experience a short - term rebound after falling to a low level [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Abstract - The Shanghai Export Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes of the current - period futures target continued to decline, while that for US West routes rebounded. The CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall, with slightly wider declines. The futures price was mainly affected by European route current - cabin quotes. The current - cabin quotes of major shipping companies at the beginning of September turned from rising to falling, pulling down the futures price valuation. For the future, pay attention to European route quotes and market fundamentals. The futures price may oscillate slightly downward, and near - month contracts may rebound after hitting lows [1]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily observe [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 3.3. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts declined. For example, the closing price of EC2510 fell 4.70% from the previous week to 1309.0 points, and the settlement price dropped 3.57% to 1324.0 points. The main influencing factor was the European route current - cabin quotes [3]. 3.4. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 18, the SCFIS European route continued to decline with a 2.47% month - on - month decrease (previous value - 2.71%), while the US West route rebounded with a 2.23% increase (previous value - 4.25%). As of August 22, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI continued to fall with wider declines. In terms of routes, the North American routes' declines widened, and the European route decline also expanded [8]. 3.5. Spot Information - Demand Side - There are data on the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in the deployed capacity of different routes, as well as the latest shipping regional trade capacity and its month - on - month changes [20][23][24]. 3.6. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 23, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 4.0%. The idle capacity of 17000TEU+ container ships was 37954TEU, accounting for 0.8% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships was 82977TEU, accounting for 1.0% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 34.4 thousand TEU to 609.7 thousand TEU; Rotterdam Port decreased by 41.3 thousand TEU to 199.5 thousand TEU; Antwerp Port increased by 9.4 thousand TEU to 93.7 thousand TEU; Hamburg Port decreased by 3.8 thousand TEU to 109.8 thousand TEU [27][30]. 3.7. Spread Analysis - The current - period SCFIS European route continued to decline with a stable 2.47% month - on - month decrease, closing at 2180.17 points. The basis of the main contract EC2510 first narrowed slightly from last week and then widened slightly. The European route current - cabin quotes of major shipping companies continued to decline, leading the futures price trend. As the container shipping market is about to exit the traditional peak season, demand support is gradually decreasing. The basis remains at a relatively high level compared to the previous period. Traders should temporarily observe in the spot - futures aspect. The spreads of the container shipping European route inter - period contract combinations such as EC2508 - EC2510, EC2508 - EC2512, and EC2510 - EC2512 are given, and traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate of the container shipping industry continues the downward trend. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, and the decline of the US West route narrowed. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to decline, but the decline converged. For the future market, attention can be paid to the changes in the current cabin quotes of shipping companies on European routes and the fundamentals of the European route market. Considering that the futures price has reached a relatively short - term low, the decline of the futures price may converge or maintain a shock [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and temporarily wait and see in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.盘面回顾 (Market Review) - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points; the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors of the week came from the current cabin quotes of European routes and route adjustments [3]. 4.现货信息 (Spot Information) 4.1 运价 (Freight Rates) - As of August 11, the European route of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS), the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (the previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline of the freight rate on the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (the previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 15, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to decline, but the decline converged. In terms of different routes, the decline of North American routes narrowed, the SCFI US West route decreased by 3.51% month - on - month ( - 9.80% in the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 2.61% month - on - month ( - 10.68% in the previous week), and the decline of the SCFI European route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 7.19% ( - 4.39% in the previous week) [8]. 4.2 需求面 (Demand Side) - The content mainly shows the week - on - week and year - on - year changes of the deployed capacity of different routes, as well as the latest shipping regional trade capacity and its month - on - month changes, but no specific summary data is provided [20][22][23]. 4.3 供应端 (Supply Side) - As of August 16, the idle capacity ratio of global container ships was 2.4%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 61,610 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships from 12,000 to 16,999 TEU was 109,419 TEU, accounting for 1.4% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 82.1 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 575.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 19.0 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 240.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port decreased by 13.9 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 84.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 10.6 thousand TEU from the previous week, closing at 113.6 thousand TEU [27][30]. 5.价差解析 (Spread Analysis) - The current Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) for European routes continued to decline, and the month - on - month decline widened to 2.71%, reporting 2235.48 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1408.8 points on Monday. The basis slightly narrowed from the previous week and then slightly widened. The current cabin quotes of mainstream shipping companies on European routes continued to decline, leading the trend of futures prices. As the container shipping market is about to leave the traditional peak season, the support from demand gradually decreases. Based on the current spot freight rate situation, although it has declined significantly, it still maintains a relative level, so the basis is still at a relatively high level compared with the previous period. Traders are advised to temporarily observe [35][37]. - The spreads of the inter - period contract combinations of container shipping European routes in the current week were as follows: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 710.2 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 320.8 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 389.4 points. Continuing the previous logic, as the 08 contract is about to enter the delivery month, the fluctuation range of the futures price has converged and is generally more stable. The 10 contract declined significantly during the week due to the further decline of the current cabin quotes and the influence of the capital side, resulting in a relatively significant increase in the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination during the week. Traders can temporarily wait and see [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The spot price of shipping has peaked, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of prices until the end of October. The shipping companies are facing increasing pressure to secure cargo, and the current spot freight rates have entered a rapid downward phase. The freight rates on the European route are expected to break through the 2000 mark in September [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1490, a previous value of 1551, and a decline of -3.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1201, a previous value of 1233, and a decline of -2.59%. Other routes such as SCFI - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.2 Shipping Contracts - **Contract Price Changes**: Contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., show different price changes. For example, EC2506 has a price increase of 0.17% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508 show different changes. For example, the position of EC2606 decreased by 8 [5]. - **Contract Month - to - Month Differences**: The month - to - month differences such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 also show changes. For example, the 10 - 12 month - to - month difference increased by 18.8 [5]. 3.3 Market News - **Tariff and Diplomatic News**: The US and China need to decide whether to extend the current tariff suspension agreement by August 12. Trump threatens to impose higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 [6]. - **Shipping Route News**: South Korea will start pilot operations on the "Northern Sea Route" in 2026. Three Chinese small - scale carriers will provide several voyages on this route in late summer 2025 [6]. - **US Import News**: The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report shows that US imports in the last four months of 2025 will decline significantly year - on - year, mainly due to pre - stocking in late 2024 and the pre - peak before the tariff takes effect this year [6]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Market Trend**: The market is in a volatile state [7]. - **Spot Price Analysis**: The spot price has peaked and is in a downward phase. Shipping companies on the European route are under great pressure to secure cargo, and the spot freight rates are expected to decline further [8]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - **Strategy Suggestion**: Short the October contract on rallies (take profit gradually as the recent decline is large), and hold the long - December and short - April spread [9].