南华期货集运周报 —— 现货运价延续下行趋势 2025/08/17 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣（Z0021065） 1. 摘要 当周期货标的现货指数上海出口结算运价指数（SCFIS）欧洲航线继续下行，美西航线降幅收窄。中国 出口集装箱运价指数（CCFI）、上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）和宁波出口集装箱运价指数（NCFI）均 继续下降，但降幅收敛。 分航线来看，SCFI欧洲航线继续下行，且降幅扩大，美西航线和美东航线均继续下行，但降幅收窄。当 周期价主要影响因素仍为欧线现舱报价。当周主流船司8月底现舱报价进一步下探，且降幅相对较大，带降了 期货价格的估值。 对于后市而言，可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价变动和欧线市场基本面。 当前欧线现舱报价与SCFI欧线均继续下行，但考虑期价至相对短期低位，期价降幅收敛或维持震荡的可 能性相对较大。 2. 策略 期现（基差）策略：交易者宜暂时保持观察。 套利（跨期）策略：可暂时保持观望。 | | EC2508 | EC2510 | EC2512 | EC2602 | EC2604 | EC2606 | | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 声别毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/8/11 | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 现值 | 1490 | 1201 | 1823 | 1130 | 2792 | 1961 | | 前值 | 1551 | 1233 | 2021 | 1284 | 3126 | 2051 | | 涨跌幅 | -3.94% | -2.59% | -9.80% | -11.99% | -10.68% | -4.39% | | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index for European routes (SCFIS) continued to decline this week, and the decline in the US West route widened significantly. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall. The main influencing factors for the futures price this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments. Looking ahead, one can continue to monitor the changes in spot cabin quotes on European routes by shipping companies and the fundamentals of the European route market. Given that the current spot cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFIS European route are both falling, but considering that the futures price is at a relatively short - term low, it is more likely that the decline in the futures price will converge or the price will remain volatile [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily keep observing [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 2. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points, and the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments [3]. 3. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 4, the SCFIS European route, the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline in the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 8, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall. In terms of routes, the decline in North American routes widened. The SCFI US West route decreased by 9.80% month - on - month ( - 2.23% the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 10.68% month - on - month ( - 7.46% the previous week), and the SCFI European route also saw an expanded decline, decreasing by 4.39% month - on - month ( - 1.87% the previous week) [8]. 4. Spot Information - Demand Side - Not summarized as specific demand - side data analysis is not provided in a concise form in the text. 5. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 8, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 2.0%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 42,946 TEU, accounting for 0.9% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships between 12,000 and 16,999 TEU was 98,873 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 102.2 thousand TEU from last week, reaching 657.4 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 25.5 thousand TEU, reaching 221.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port increased by 24.1 thousand TEU, reaching 98.2 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 6.0 thousand TEU, reaching 103.0 thousand TEU [27][30]. 6. Spread Analysis - The current SCFIS European route continued to decline, but the month - on - month decline slightly converged to 0.81%, closing at 2297.86 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1421.8 points on Monday, and the basis narrowed slightly compared to last week. Traders are advised to temporarily observe. The inter - period contract spread combinations of the container shipping European route this week: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 635.0 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 311.0 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 324.0 points. Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The shipping market is currently facing a complex situation with geopolitical conflicts, tariff uncertainties, and fluctuating freight rates. Due to the high difficulty of market gaming, it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and different trading strategies are proposed for different contracts, but overall, risk control through stop - loss settings is emphasized [1][4]. 3. Content Summary 3.1 Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index on August 1 was 1087.66 points, down 2.06%; the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; the US West route was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points; the European line price was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; the US West route was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1232.29 points, down 2.3%; the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; the US West route was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In July, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI preliminary value was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [2]. - **China**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - **US**: In July, the S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024 [3]. 3.3 Market Events - Trump's tariff policy: Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases, and the spot market had a small price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market [4]. - Geopolitical events: On August 3, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched three "special military operations" against Israeli military targets and a port. Israel's national security minister entered the Al - Aqsa Mosque area, which was condemned by Palestine, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term strategy**: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and take partial profits when there is a profit margin of over 300 points. For the EC2512 contract, it is recommended to go short lightly and take profits. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and no position - holding against losses is recommended, with stop - losses set [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try lightly with a small position [4]. - **Long - term strategy**: For all contracts, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before making further decisions [4]. 3.5 Contract Information - On August 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1421.8, down 0.72%, with a trading volume of 3.03 million lots and an open interest of 5.11 million lots, a decrease of 1323 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the company's margin was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Team 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is stabilizing, with the main contract rising and then falling, and the near - month contract continuing to repair the basis. If there is a callback today, consider adding positions [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound, and different strategies are proposed for different contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On July 21, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% [3]. - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1147.96 points, down 5.75%; the European route was 1440.25 points, up 0.35%; the US West route was 1181.87 points, down 0.40% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) on July 21: the composite index was 1646.90 points, down 86.39 points; the European line price was 2079 USD/TEU, down 1.00%; the US West route was 2142 USD/FEU, down 2.4% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) on July 18: the composite index was 1303.54 points, down 0.8%; the European route was 1803.42 points, up 4.5%; the US West route was 941.65 points, down 8.4% [3] 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 50 (2 - month high), and composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [3]. - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 points from May [3]. - US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, service PMI was 53.1 (2 - month low), and composite PMI was 52.8 (2 - month low) [3] 3.3 Market Situation - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The tariff negotiation date was postponed to August 1. The spot market price range was set, with small price increases to test the market, and the market rebounded slightly [5]. - On July 21, the main contract 2510 closed at 1592.7, down 2.35%, with a trading volume of 69,300 lots and an open interest of 51,200 lots, a decrease of 186 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.4 Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300). If it continues to decline today, consider adding positions. Consider shorting the EC2512 contract above 1950 [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, with a positive spread structure and large fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to stabilize after a decline, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.5 Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6] 3.6 Geopolitical News - A new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha is expected to reach an agreement within two weeks, and all parties are cautiously optimistic [7]. - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqqi wrote to the UN Security Council and the Secretary - General regarding the UK, France, and Germany's threat to activate "rapid - restoration sanctions", stating that their actions are invalid [7]