2025年9月30日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续大幅下行，叠加资金出逃，盘面宽幅震荡，建议空仓过节控制风险，设置好止损，国庆快乐! | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 9月29日 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1120.49点, 较上期下跌10.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 717.36点, 较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 921.25点, 较上期下跌22.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 614.14点, 较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 868.22点, 较上期下跌8.11% 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点,较上期下跌83.69点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1087.41点,较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格971USD/TEU,较上期下跌7.70%% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining significantly, and with capital outflows, the market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to stay out of the market during the holiday to control risks and set stop - losses [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Freight Indexes - On September 29, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1120.49 points, down 10.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 921.25 points, down 22.8% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, down 8.47% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 868.22 points, down 8.11% from the previous period [2]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1114.52 points, down 83.69 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 971 USD/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1460 USD/FEU, down 10.76% from the previous period [2]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, down 4.7% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 824.92 points, up 2.4% from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [2]. c. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [2]. d. Market Conditions and Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors have been advised to try to go long at around 1600 for the 12 and 02 contracts. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold positions stubbornly. Set stop - losses [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2]. - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation [2]. e. Contract - related Information - On September 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1115.0, down 3.11%, with a trading volume of 1.67 million lots and an open interest of 2.93 million lots, a decrease of 3117 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit and circuit - breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [2].

2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

2025年9月29日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 盘面继续反弹,符合日报筑底判断,远月较强,建议空仓过节控制风险,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月22日 | 9月26日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1254.92点，较上期下跌12.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）717.36点，较上期下跌8.47% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1193.64点，较上期下跌11.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）614.14点，较上期下跌8.83% | | 9月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）868.22点，较上期下跌8.11% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1114.52 点，较上期下跌83.69点 | 9月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格971USD/TEU，较上期下跌7.70%% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1087.41点，较上期下跌2.9% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1460USD ...

航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 户到教 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | 戸到数 | | Sales - V id ad 从业资格号：F03101843 | | 2025/9/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1193 | 2557 | 1052 | | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 1349 | 3307 | 1154 | | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | -11.56% | -22.68% | -8.84% | | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 现值 | 1193 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottoming process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Spot freight rates are maintaining a low level, the bulk market is generally weak, the US has cut the benchmark interest rate again, and market pessimism persists. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Content Freight Index - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 903.32 points, down 11.71%; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78%; the NCFI for the US - West route on September 12 was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% [1]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European - line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24%; the SCFI US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1125.30 points, down 2.1%; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [1]. Economic Data - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, higher than in July and the highest since May 2024 [1]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4 [2]. Tariff and Trade - The Sino - US tariff issue has evolved into a trade negotiation problem between the US and other countries. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback [3]. Contract Information - On September 18, the main contract 2510 closed at 1105.9, down 2.08%, with a trading volume of 1.96 million lots and an open interest of 4.72 million lots, a decrease of 2436 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff fluctuations, the game is challenging, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - Near - month contracts may show weak and volatile trends due to the continuous decline of spot freight rates and the intensification of the Middle - East conflict, while far - month contracts may have strong and volatile trends due to the impact of China - US economic and trade talks [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On September 15, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% from the previous period [2]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. - On September 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1163.1, with a decline of 1.57%, the trading volume was 17,800 lots, and the open interest was 47,800 lots, an increase of 161 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, showing continuous improvement [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4, both higher than expected [2]. Geopolitical Events - On September 15, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched 4 drones to attack 2 Israeli targets, including 3 drones attacking Ramon Airport and 1 attacking an Israeli military target [5]. - On September 14, an air - raid alert was sounded near Ramon Airport, and the Israeli military intercepted a drone from Yemen [5]. - On September 14, Hamas suspended the cease - fire and hostage - exchange negotiations with Israel, blaming Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for obstructing the talks [5]. Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term Strategy**: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions near 1200 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions near 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or lightly try due to large fluctuations [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].

2025年9月10日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续下跌,中东局势再度紧张,现货运价持续低迷,盘面处于筑底过程,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损, SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 9月8日 | 9月5日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1566.46点, 较上期下跌11.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1023.16点,较上期下跌6.83% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）980.48点，较上期下跌3.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 855.93点, 较上期下跌7.92% | | 9月5日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1338.34点, 较上期下跌4.19% | | | 9月5日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1444.44 点，较上期下跌0.62点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数) 1149.14点，较上期下跌0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1315USD/TEU,较上期下跌11.21% | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - SCFI is on a downward trend, the market is under pressure and volatile, and it's not recommended to increase positions. Instead, set stop - losses [1] - Given geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [4] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On August 25, SCFIS (European route) was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% [2] - On August 29, NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02%; NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23%; NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% [2] - On August 29, SCFI was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points; SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21%; SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% [2] - On August 29, CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6%; CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1%; CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% [2] Economic Data - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, service PMI was 50.7, and composite PMI rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] - US August Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022; service PMI was 55.4 [3] Market Conditions - As of August 29, the main contract 2510 closed at 1261.0, down 2.15%, with a trading volume of 25,200 lots and an open interest of 53,200 lots, a decrease of 988 lots from the previous day [4] Strategies - Short - term: For risk - takers, it's recommended to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage: In the context of international instability, it's advisable to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt [5] - Long - term: It's recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for a pull - back to stabilize before making further decisions [5] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The margin for contracts from 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5] - On August 26, the US Department of Commerce made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on polypropylene corrugated boxes imported from China, with a unified rate of 83.64% [6] - On August 29, the Israeli military continued operations in the Middle East, including major strikes on Houthi targets [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Given the geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2][5]. - In the short - term, risk - takers can try to go long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trends and do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. For the long - term, take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the correction to stabilize before making further decisions [5]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions for the arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Information Freight Rate Index - On August 25, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1041.38 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. On August 22, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1083.74 points, down 8.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 963.54 points, down 1.79% from the previous period [3]. - On August 22, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1415.36 points, down 44.83 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 6.54% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1757.74 points, down 1.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 799.19 points, down 2.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1. The August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 [3]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. Contract and Market Conditions - On August 27, the main contract 2510 closed at 1316.0, with a decline of 0.89%, a trading volume of 1.80 million lots, and an open interest of 5.37 million lots, a decrease of 684 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical and Trade News - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The Israeli - Palestinian conflict continues, with the Israeli military's attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip and the subsequent responses from both sides [5]. - The US will suspend the tax - free treatment for imported packages worth $800 or less from August 29, and 25 countries have announced the suspension of sending packages to the US [5].