2025年12月24日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 现货运价涨幅不及预期，叠加多头止盈离场，盘面承压下行,符合日报预期,落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 12月22日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1589.20点, 较上期上涨5.2% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 962.10点, 较上期上涨4.1% 12月19日 上海出口集装箱运价指数$CFl公布价格1552.92点,较上期上涨46.46点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1533USD/TEU,较上期下跌0.33% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1992USD/FEU,较上期上涨11.91% 12月19日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1094.77点, 较上期上涨3.20% | | --- | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1228.34点, 较上期上涨19.28% | | 12月19日 | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1 ...

SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 12月15日 | 12月12日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1510.56点, 较上期上涨0.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1060.86点, 较上期上涨10.23% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 924.36点, 较上期下跌3.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1064.13点, 较上期上涨9.98% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1029.8点, 较上期上涨17.28% | | 12月12日 | 12月12日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1506.461 点，较上期上涨108.83点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1118.07 点, 较上期上涨0.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1538USD/TEU,较上期上涨9.86% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (欧洲航线) 1470.55点,较上期上涨1.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美 ...

2025年12月17日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 部分班轮公司报价不及预期,盘面止涨转跌,盘面震荡上行,符合日报预期,已建议全部止盈。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 12月15日 | 12月12日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1510.56点, 较上期上涨0.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1060.86点, 较上期上涨10.23% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 924.36点, 较上期下跌3.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1064.13点, 较上期上涨9.98% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1029.8点, 较上期上涨17.28% | | 12月12日 | 12月12日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1506.461 点, 较上期上涨108.83点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1118.07 点, 较上期上涨0.3% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1538USD/TEU, 较上期上 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 11月生意社BPI延续回暖。产业"叙事"仍在延续，叠加美联储降息预期下旬升温，有色金属延续上 涨，贵金属中白银领涨。截至11月28日，生意社BPI指数录得878点，相较10月末环比回升1.0%。其中能 源、有色指数（月环比）分别为0.4%、2.7%。 第二， 11月内盘定价大宗商品涨跌互现。其中动力煤现货价格、玻璃期货价涨幅靠前，月环比涨幅分别录得 7.0%、7.6%；螺纹钢期货价格环比回落0.6%；化工产品、水泥价格指数、焦煤期货价相对偏弱，月环比分 别录得-0.1%、-1.0%、-18.3%。水泥价格最后一周有企稳好转迹象。南华综合指数期末值环比小幅收 涨，月均值同比录得0.2%（前值-0.3%）。 第三， 四大一线城市房价延续调整。截至11月17日（最新数据），四大一线城市二手房挂牌价格指数相较 10月最后一周环比录得-0.7%、-1.2%、-1.5%、-1.5% 。 第四， 存储芯片、碳酸锂等新兴制造业上游价格偏强，光伏产业价格走低。11月光伏行业综合指数（SPI） 环比回落2.6%（前值-0. ...

Report Overview - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research Group: Shipping Research Group Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The rumor of resuming shipping routes caused a significant drop in the futures market, but the official has refuted it. The market is mainly affected by trading sentiment, and there is no obvious fluctuation in freight rates. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The core factors affecting freight rates are traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The tariff issue has a marginal effect. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [4]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. Summary by Content Freight Rate Index - On November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period [3]. - On November 21, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [3] Market Conditions - On November 25, the main contract 2602 closed at 1453.5, a decrease of 7.78%, with a trading volume of 51,400 lots and an open interest of 48,200 lots, a decrease of 4946 lots from the previous day [4]. - The market dropped significantly, with heavy trading volume and intense long - short competition. The market fluctuated widely [4]. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - For risk - takers, it was previously recommended to lightly try long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. After the significant drop in the market, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losses. Stop - loss should be set [5]. Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [5]. Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before making further decisions [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of SCFIS has boosted the sentiment of long - position holders, and the futures market is in a state of oscillating operation under the game between long and short positions. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. Tariff issues have a marginal effect, and close attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight prices [1][3]. - With the sharp rise of the spot index driving the far - month contracts, risk - preferring investors are advised to enter the 02 contract in advance and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. Content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Index Information - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. Futures Market Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: As the main contract retreats and the far - month contracts are strong, risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The partial consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade consultations is beneficial to the international trade environment, and the market fluctuates upward, in line with the rebound expectation of the daily report. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop-loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The main contract remains weak in the short term, while the far-month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk - preference investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period. On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [3]. - On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. - The initial value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The initial value of the service PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The initial value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in September was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in September was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in September was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the initial value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the initial value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. Market Situation and Strategy - The China - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. The main contract closed at 1843.8 on October 30, with a gain of 0.15%, a trading volume of 17,600 lots, and an open interest of 30,100 lots, a decrease of 1792 lots from the previous day [5]. - After the China - US leaders' meeting in Busan, the bullish sentiment was gradually digested, some long - positions took profits and left the market. Under the game between long and short in the market, the market fluctuated widely. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates in the future [5]. - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, in line with the bottoming - out judgment. Risk - preference investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises to a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit and daily low - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFI continues to rebound, and the positive signals from China - US consultations meet the daily report's rebound expectations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [5]. - The easing signal of China - US trade boosts market sentiment, and the freight rates announced by each company at the beginning of November support the market, resulting in a strong - side oscillating market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On October 24, SCFIS (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, up 0.1% from the previous period. NCFI (composite index) was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period; NCFI (US West route) was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [3]. - On October 24, SCFI was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. SCFI European line price was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period; SCFI US West route was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period. CCFI (composite index) was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; CCFI (US West route) was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMM preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities accelerated [4]. - In the US, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (August final value was 54.6) [4]. 3.3 Contract Information - On October 24, the main contract 2512 closed at 1831.0, with a gain of 3.14%, a trading volume of 35,100 lots, and an open interest of 30,200 lots, an increase of 1335 lots from the previous day [5]. - The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFI has risen significantly, but the end - of - month freight rates are still slightly down, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [3]. - In the short - term, the main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - loss [3]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, and then wait for the correction to stabilize before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period. On October 17, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI**: On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 11936 USD/FEU, up 31.9% from the previous period [2]. - **CCFI**: On October 17, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - **China**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - **US**: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [2]. Tariff and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has a slight decline, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [3]. Futures Market - On October 17, the main contract 2512 closed at 1654.7, down 0.5%, with a trading volume of 2.98 million lots and an open interest of 2.57 million lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical Situation - There are continuous conflicts in the Israel - Palestine region. On October 19, armed personnel in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip fired anti - tank missiles and opened fire on the Israeli army. The Israeli army launched air strikes and shelling in the Rafah area and also attacked the Deir al - Balah area in the central Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to take tough actions in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli senior officials expect more air strikes in the Gaza Strip [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously declining, and there may be a full - scale cease - fire. The far - month contracts have significantly declined, meeting the daily report's expectations. It is not recommended to continue adding positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5]. - Pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content a. Shipping Indexes - On October 6, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1046.50 points, a 6.6% decline from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 876.82 points, a 4.8% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 717.36 points, an 8.47% decline; for the European route, it was 614.14 points, an 8.83% decline; for the US - West route, it was 868.22 points, an 8.11% decline [3]. - On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1114.52 points, a decline of 83.69 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 971 USD/TEU, a 7.70% decline; the SCFI US - West route was 1460 USD/FEU, a 10.76% decline [3]. - On September 26, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decline; for the European route, it was 1401.91 points, a 4.7% decline; for the US - West route, it was 824.92 points, a 2.4% increase [3]. b. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the September manufacturing PMI flash was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The services PMI flash rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The September composite PMI flash was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sentiment. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [4]. - In the US, the September S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (August final value: 53); the services PMI flash was 53.9 (August final value: 54.5); the composite PMI flash was 53.6 (August final value: 54.6) [4]. c. Market Situation and Strategies - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The spot price has slightly decreased [5]. - On October 9, the main contract 2512 closed at 1688.0, a 1.81% decline, with a trading volume of 41,500 lots and an open interest of 24,200 lots, an increase of 3451 lots from the previous day [5]. - During the holiday, the SCFIS index continued to decline, and the Israel - Palestine situation showed signs of easing, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market and wide - range fluctuations [5]. - **Short - term strategy**: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are stronger, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [6]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [6]. - **Long - term strategy**: All contracts are advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]. d. Geopolitical News - On October 9, Palestinian President Abbas welcomed the efforts to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which includes cease - fire, Israeli withdrawal, and access to humanitarian aid. He hopes the agreement can pave the way for a permanent political solution and end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory [7]. - On the same day, the Israeli Defense Forces said they had evaluated the situation overnight, and the IDF Chief of Staff instructed the troops to prepare for various situations, welcomed the agreement on the return of the detained persons, and would continue to act to achieve the military operation goals in the Gaza Strip [7].