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美联储调查:5月通胀预期全面下降,为2024年来首次
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 22:38
Core Insights - The latest survey from the New York Fed indicates a significant decline in inflation expectations across various time frames, with one-year expectations dropping from 3.6% to 3.2% [1] - The improvement in inflation expectations is broad-based, affecting different demographics, although food prices are an exception with a projected increase of 5.5% [2] - There is a slight improvement in perceptions regarding employment and personal financial outlooks, with a decrease in the proportion of respondents expecting to lose their jobs [3][6] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations decreased from 3.6% to 3.2%, three-year expectations fell from 3.2% to 3%, and five-year expectations dropped from 2.7% to 2.6% [1] - The only category with rising inflation expectations is food, which is expected to increase by 5.5%, the highest level since October 2023 [2] - Other major consumer categories, such as gasoline, healthcare, and rent, saw a decline in inflation expectations [2] Employment and Financial Outlook - The percentage of respondents expecting to be unemployed in the next 12 months decreased to 14.8%, down by 0.5% [3] - The average expectation for a higher unemployment rate in the next year also fell by 3.3% to 40.8% [3] - A lower percentage of respondents indicated that their financial situation would worsen in a year, with those unable to meet minimum payments dropping to 13.45% [6] Market Sentiment - Respondents expressed an increased probability of the stock market rising in the next 12 months [8] - The easing of trade tensions has contributed to a more optimistic consumer sentiment, which is seen as a positive signal for the administration [9] - The Fed is closely monitoring consumer inflation expectations to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation trends [10]
特朗普关税暂缓引市场观望 通胀隐忧仍存
智通财经网· 2025-05-27 22:27
Core Insights - Despite concerns about tariffs announced by Trump potentially increasing U.S. inflation, market indicators suggest that investor worries about future price surges are not strong [1][2] - The announcement of large tariffs on April 2 did not significantly impact the one-year U.S. inflation swap rate, which remained stable at 3.4% compared to 3.36% the previous week [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is crucial for assessing inflation trends, as it is a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [2] Inflation Indicators - Recent inflation indicators show an upward trend, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating the fastest increase in input costs and output prices since 2022 [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending in April shows an inflation rate of 2.3%, with the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) higher at 2.8% [6] Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, initial market volatility was observed, but as trade negotiations progressed, market fluctuations began to stabilize [2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, spiked in early April but has since returned to around 20, close to its long-term average [2] - The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also seen a significant decline since early April [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that tariffs will lead to a one-time increase in prices, with core PCE inflation expected to rebound to 3.6% later this year before declining next year [8] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with a recent survey indicating a jump from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May [9] - Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. economy is expected to remain weak, with growth below potential and a moderate rise in unemployment [9] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved significantly following Trump's announcement to delay high tariffs on the EU, leading to substantial gains in U.S. stock markets [9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.8%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.5% on the day following the tariff delay announcement [9] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 7.6 basis points to 4.432%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 24 [9]