5月，美国消费者对未来通胀的预期全面下降，为2024年来首次，其中短期通胀预期降幅最大。 相较之下，其他主要消费领域的涨价预期则普遍回落，受访者预计汽油价格涨幅将放缓至2.7%，下降0.8个百分点。医疗保健、大学教育和租金上涨的预期 也环比下降。 就业与财务前景有所改善 特朗普在贸易和移民政策上的转变也可能影响劳动力市场。多位美联储官员预计今年失业率将上升，但5月的调查显示，美国民众对就业和个人财务和股市 前景的看法反而略有改善。 就业方面，受访者预计未来12个月会失业的人比例降至14.8%，比之前下降了0.5%。受访者认为自己在未来一年内会被解雇的概率下降了0.5%，觉得自己有 可能主动辞职的比例略微上升。预计未来一年失业率会更高的平均预期也下降了3.3%至40.8%，但仍高于过去12个月的平均值。 分析指出，虽然通胀预期仍高于美联储设定的2%目标，但已明显回落，显示消费者信心改善，核心原因是中美贸易局势暂时缓和。关税缓解消息发布后， 多项调查（包括纽约联储此次调查）结果均显示，消费者情绪有所回升。 周一，美国纽约联储发布的5月最新调查结果显示，一年期通胀预期从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，降幅最大。三年期通 ...

Core Insights - Despite concerns about tariffs announced by Trump potentially increasing U.S. inflation, market indicators suggest that investor worries about future price surges are not strong [1][2] - The announcement of large tariffs on April 2 did not significantly impact the one-year U.S. inflation swap rate, which remained stable at 3.4% compared to 3.36% the previous week [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is crucial for assessing inflation trends, as it is a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [2] Inflation Indicators - Recent inflation indicators show an upward trend, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating the fastest increase in input costs and output prices since 2022 [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending in April shows an inflation rate of 2.3%, with the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) higher at 2.8% [6] Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, initial market volatility was observed, but as trade negotiations progressed, market fluctuations began to stabilize [2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, spiked in early April but has since returned to around 20, close to its long-term average [2] - The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also seen a significant decline since early April [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that tariffs will lead to a one-time increase in prices, with core PCE inflation expected to rebound to 3.6% later this year before declining next year [8] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with a recent survey indicating a jump from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May [9] - Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. economy is expected to remain weak, with growth below potential and a moderate rise in unemployment [9] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved significantly following Trump's announcement to delay high tariffs on the EU, leading to substantial gains in U.S. stock markets [9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.8%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.5% on the day following the tariff delay announcement [9] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 7.6 basis points to 4.432%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 24 [9]