2025.12. 18 本文字数：2220，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周四，美国11月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告将揭晓，有关物价前景的信息有望为华尔街和美联储提 供更多未来政策路径的线索。 本周早些时候公布的非农报告显示，美国经济似乎难以带着强劲动能迈入2026年。与此同时，企业 寄望于贸易争端能够平息，但关税就如同达摩克利斯之剑，始终悬在经济发展的头顶。 数据前景 今年4月，全美CPI同比涨幅一度降至2.3%的近四年低点。然而，随着美国总统特朗普将关税上调至 数十年以来的最高水平，物价开始震荡上行。虽然关税并未引发批评者所预测的物价快速飙升，但截 至9月，通胀率已回升至3%，显著高于美联储设定的2%目标。 目前的核心问题在于，物价是会持续走高，还是会如美联储多位高层官员及经济学家所预期的那样开 始回落。受政府停摆影响，11月CPI报告推迟一周发布（10月报告已取消发布），这份报告将有助 于解答上述疑问。 自9月以来，美联储已累计降息三次，旨在提振疲软的劳动力市场。因政府停摆而延迟发布的10-11 月合并就业报告于周二公布，数据显示11月美国非农就业人数新增6.4万人，而10月非农就业 ...

[music] What is economic data and why is it vital for investors. Economic data comes in many forms and it informs investors and economists on the state of the economy which has many facets from jobs data to housing data. There's consumer confidence data and inflation data and so much more.Altogether they paint a picture of how the US economy is doing and if we're in an economic expansion or economic contraction. Additionally, they often have an immediate impact on the market. If jobs data misses expectation ...

白宫的一个账号在10月24日发帖称，原因是"调查员无法部署到现场——这使我们失去了关键数据。"9 月份的通胀数据在停摆期间发布，低于预期，但顽固地保持在3%左右。 更新的数据发布时间表预计要到政府重新开放几天后才会公布，因为负责监督这些发布工作的官员几乎 都被停薪休假了。悬而未决的问题包括11月份的通胀数据是否也会受到影响。周一早上，一位白宫官员 没有立即回应有关计划以及何时可能重新安排数据发布的问题。 9月和10月的月度就业报告均未发布，普遍的预期是，当政府工作人员重返工作岗位后（最早在本周晚 些时候），首批公布的新数据将是9月份的就业数据。Evercore ISI副董事长古哈（Krishna Guha）周一 在一份报告中预测："第一批劳动力数据——延迟的9月份就业报告——应该在停摆结束后的几天内发 布，尽管10月／11月的数据何时以及如何公布仍不确定。" 华盛顿结束政府停摆的新途径，或许能迅速逆转40天停摆带来的一些经济损失，但政府数据的中断可能 需要更长时间才能恢复正常。市场最密切关注的至少部分信息似乎很可能永远丢失，而一旦联邦工作人 员重返工作岗位，一些关于9月份劳动力市场状况的旧数据可能会很快公布。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has voted to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but the actual impact remains limited due to the need for House approval and potential presidential veto [3][5] - The ongoing government shutdown has lasted for 31 days, with significant economic repercussions, including a projected loss of at least $18 billion [7][10] - The aviation industry is facing severe challenges due to the shutdown, with warnings of potential disruptions during the Thanksgiving travel peak [8][10] Tariff Policy - The Senate passed a resolution to end Trump's tariff policy, but the House, controlled by Republicans, is likely to block it [3][5] - The Supreme Court will ultimately decide on the legality of the tariffs, with a hearing scheduled for November 5 [3][5] Government Shutdown - The shutdown has already caused significant economic damage, with estimates of permanent losses ranging from $7 billion to $14 billion depending on its duration [7] - The USDA will stop funding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) starting November 1, affecting over 41 million low-income families [7] Aviation Industry - The shutdown poses a risk to air travel, with potential staffing shortages among air traffic controllers and security personnel [8] - Airlines are urging Congress to pass a clean continuing resolution to mitigate the impact of the shutdown on air travel [8] Economic Impact - The shutdown is expected to lower GDP growth by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4, translating to a loss of $28 billion to $39 billion in output [7][10] - Delays in releasing key economic data could hinder the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates [10][12]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown for 23 days, marking the second-longest shutdown in history, impacting economic data availability and federal employees [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was released on October 24, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is below the expected 3.1% and higher than the previous month's 2.9% [1][5] - The delay in key economic data due to the government shutdown has forced the market to rely on alternative indicators, such as the ADP employment report [2][3] Economic Data Impact - The Senate rejected a temporary funding bill, leading to continued government shutdown and affecting the release of critical economic data [2] - The Labor Statistics Bureau has suspended data collection and reporting, delaying the September non-farm payroll report and CPI data [2][4] - The absence of official data is complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve, as highlighted by Fed officials [4][7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The CPI report indicated a 0.3% month-on-month increase, lower than the expected 0.4%, with core CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month [5] - The market is anticipating a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting due to lower-than-expected inflation data [7] - Fed Chair Powell's comments suggest a shift in focus from inflation control to balancing growth and employment, indicating a potential for further rate cuts [7][8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the persistent inflation in the U.S. and its implications for monetary policy, particularly the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in response to economic pressures [8][9]. Inflation Analysis - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates that the market is still adjusting to the dual impacts of tariffs and energy price fluctuations, with the overall inflation rate remaining high [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to rise significantly for the second consecutive month, driven by higher prices for goods affected by tariffs, especially imported clothing, food, and fuel [8]. - Despite the overall inflationary pressures, price increases in the services sector, particularly in air travel and accommodation, may slow down [8]. Core Inflation Trends - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is projected to show a moderate increase of around 0.3%, which, while above long-term targets, remains within a controllable range [8]. - This level of core inflation provides room for continued monetary policy easing, especially as corporate profit margins are under pressure and hiring is slowing [8]. Economic Implications - U.S. companies are facing challenges in passing on costs, with some manufacturers absorbing tariff costs while cutting back on hiring and delaying investments [9]. - This short-term strategy may alleviate profit pressures but could suppress consumer spending and employment growth in the long run, creating new economic concerns [9]. - Consumers are bearing part of the tax burden, which diminishes real purchasing power [9]. Market Outlook - The CPI data for September is expected to confirm the stubborn nature of U.S. inflation, but market reactions may be relatively muted [9]. - Investors are more focused on the Federal Reserve's decision-making in the upcoming meeting; if inflation remains around 3% while growth momentum weakens, rate cuts may be a more reasonable choice [9]. - For the forex market, this scenario suggests that the dollar may continue to face pressure, while risk assets could find short-term support [9]. Policy Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's statements and future policy guidance, as current inflation is driven by a combination of tariffs, energy prices, and supply chain adjustments [9]. - The flexibility of monetary policy will be crucial in determining future market directions in this complex environment [9].

Group 1 - The article introduces the concept of bond index funds and highlights that most investors are familiar with stock index funds but not with bond index funds [2] - A free course is offered to educate investors on how to invest in bond index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - Inflation is defined as the general increase in prices of goods and services over time [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to measure inflation, which tracks the prices of a basket of 268 essential consumer goods and services [7] - The article notes that CPI is an average and may not reflect individual household experiences, as consumption patterns vary significantly between different families and cities [7]

Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August is expected to show persistent inflation, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, marking the highest level since January [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining unchanged from previous values [2] - The impact of tariffs is expected to continue influencing inflation, with significant increases in tariff revenue and costs being passed on to consumers [2][3] Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts a core CPI increase of 0.36% month-over-month, slightly above market expectations, pushing the year-over-year core CPI to 3.13% [2] - Bank of America also predicts stubborn inflation for August, attributing it to rising energy prices and stable goods inflation driven by tariffs [3] - Ameriprise anticipates a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.4%, driven by rising food prices and the gradual transmission of tariff costs [5] Consumer Sentiment - A survey from the University of Michigan indicates that American households expect inflation to rise by 4.8% over the next year, significantly higher than the market forecast of 2.6% [5] - The psychological impact of tariffs is noted, with concerns about ongoing cost increases affecting consumer perceptions of inflation [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is influenced by the CPI data, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [9] - The economic landscape remains hotter than the Fed would prefer, leading to cautious considerations regarding future rate cuts [9]

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook raises concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy, which could have severe implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Policy - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve could undermine the independence of U.S. monetary policy, potentially destabilizing the U.S. economy and affecting global economic balance [1][3]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is considered crucial for maintaining the U.S. economy's stability and its position in the global economy, as political interference can lead to inflation, currency depreciation, and stock market declines [3]. Group 2: Legal and Political Context - Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook is unprecedented in U.S. history, as it marks the first time a president has sought to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor, which may lead to legal challenges up to the Supreme Court [3]. - Cook has filed a lawsuit to prevent her dismissal, and it remains uncertain whether federal courts will agree that a criminal transfer without actual charges meets the "for cause" standard for removing a Federal Reserve governor [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Key inflation indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), have remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target throughout the year, with July PCE showing a year-over-year increase of 2.6% and core PCE rising to 2.9% [4]. - The July CPI data indicated a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.7%, with core CPI increasing by 3.1%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a 89.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% stands at 10.3% [5].

Group 1 - The credibility of economic data, particularly employment and CPI reports, has significantly declined, leading to increased uncertainty in market reactions [1][2][3] - Employment reports have been repeatedly revised downward, causing skepticism among economists regarding the accuracy of initial data releases [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection has become less reliable due to staffing issues, resulting in a higher reliance on estimates rather than actual price checks [3] Group 2 - Wall Street has adapted to the data uncertainty by applying a "revision premium," anticipating that initial data will be corrected in the future [4] - The rise of alternative data sources, such as satellite imagery and credit card transaction analysis, has provided traders with independent verification opportunities [4] - The Federal Reserve's acknowledgment of declining data coverage has raised concerns about its ability to make accurate decisions based on potentially flawed data [4] Group 3 - The ongoing crisis of data credibility highlights the importance of data quality over quantity in a data-driven financial environment [5] - The financial market's ability to handle bad news is challenged by the prevalence of poor-quality data, emphasizing the need for reliable economic indicators [5]