特朗普的关税政策再次遭到否决！美国政府停摆问题持续，局势愈加混乱！ 从本周开始，美国加快了与多个国家的贸易谈判。例如，中美之间在多个重要领域达成了共识，美国财政部长贝森特还表示，中美贸易协议最快将在下周 签署。此外，美国还在与巴西、印度等国家展开谈判，预计能够达成协议，而美国与韩国的协议也已具体敲定。 然而，在此时，美国参议院以51票赞成、47票反对的结果通过了一项决议，决定终止特朗普在全球范围内实施的全面关税政策，同时批准解除特朗普宣布 的国家紧急状态。事实上，参议院还在上周通过了两项决议，拟取消对加拿大和巴西的关税。 尽管参议院否定了特朗普的关税政策，但这并不意味着关税政策马上会被暂停。接下来的决议需要提交众议院表决，而众议院由共和党控制，且共和党曾 多次阻止推翻关税的立法，因此，决议大概率难以获得通过。即使众议院通过该决议，国会仍需三分之二的绝对多数才能推翻总统的否决。 实际上，无论是参议院还是众议院，都没有最终决定特朗普关税的权力。最终能否继续实施关税，还需要美国最高法院作出裁决。美国最高法院将于11月 5日审理这一关税案件，争议的核心问题是关税征收的权力归属以及特朗普援引《国家紧急经济权力法》的合法 ...

目前，市场将目光转向由私营机构汇编的数据，例如被称为"小非农"的ADP就业报告。 根据最新发布的9月数据，美国私营部门就业岗位减少3.2万个，创下自2023年3月以来的最大降幅。 然而，这些替代数据存在明显的局限性。浙商证券宏观首席分析师林成炜指出，不同数据在统计口径与 样本选择上的差异，可能导致最终结果出现显著偏差。 截至10月24日，美国联邦政府"停摆"已达23天，成为历史上第二长的联邦政府关门纪录，仅次于特朗普 第一个任期内35天的"停摆"期。 这场政治僵局不仅让数十万联邦雇员被迫无薪工作，更令市场依赖的经济数据陷入"断供"危机。 不过，原定于10月15日发布的9月通胀数据于北京时间10月24晚8点半公布。美国劳工统计局公布的数据 显示，美国9月消费者物价指数（CPI）同比增长3%，预估为3.1%，上月数据为2.9%；环比增长0.3%， 预期为0.4%，上月数据为0.4%。由于通胀数据不及预期，美联储本月加息概率增大。 关键数据延迟或缺失 据央视新闻报道，美国参议院于当地时间10月22日再次否决共和党提出的临时拨款法案，使联邦政 府"停摆"的僵局持续未解。该法案旨在将政府资金支持延长至11月21日，从而 ...

Most Trusted Forex Broker In Asia Presented to Jus joil, S 600 9 ING COSTS تكاليف تداو "Most Trusted Forex Broker In Asia" Forex Broker Award EXN ( ) == Open Exchange Network Endless Trading Possibilities @ 8 8 0 0 0 o e x n . g l o b a l m 0 ing with major S s with major t ve the same wal fees nd all clients it al fees waived GUL das dab obal Clients lated by the FSC as a fu CFD products pen Exchange Network UNNWEDE ROCESSI wl as renu 6 0 OEXN认为，近期美国通胀数据的持续坚挺，反映出市场仍在消化关税传导与能源价格波动的双重影响。虽然整体通胀率维持在高位，但这并未改变市场 ...

Group 1 - The article introduces the concept of bond index funds and highlights that most investors are familiar with stock index funds but not with bond index funds [2] - A free course is offered to educate investors on how to invest in bond index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - Inflation is defined as the general increase in prices of goods and services over time [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to measure inflation, which tracks the prices of a basket of 268 essential consumer goods and services [7] - The article notes that CPI is an average and may not reflect individual household experiences, as consumption patterns vary significantly between different families and cities [7]

来源：美股研究社 周四（9月11日）晚八点半，美国将公布8月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，预计将显示通胀仍顽固地居高不下。经济学家 普遍认为，关税成本将继续渗透至整体经济。 根据市场的最新共识预估，经济学家预计8月CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.9%，这将创下1月以来的最高水平，进一步偏 离美联储2%的目标，且较7月高0.2个百分点。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI预计在8月环比上涨0.3%，同 比上涨3.1%，均与前值维持不变。 他们预计，未来几个月，关税将继续推高每月通胀水平，核心CPI预计维持在0.3%左右。除去关税影响，通胀基本趋势可 能因住房租赁和劳动力市场的影响减弱而继续回落。 美国银行的经济学家则预计，"8月通胀依然顽固"。他们预测CPI环比上涨0.3%，原因包括能源价格上涨、关税推动的商 品通胀保持稳定，以及非住房类服务价格坚挺。 美银指出，关税的影响"仍在逐步传导至消费者"，推动家居用品、服装和休闲商品价格持续上涨，"预计关税将在未来几 个季度继续成为商品通胀的来源"。 法国兴业银行美国首席经济学家克里斯托弗·霍奇（Christopher Hodge）指出："核心CPI在过去两 ...

特朗普推动解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，这是总统首次试图解雇美联储官员 世界经济的一位重要领导人警告称， 唐纳德·特朗普总统对美联储行动的过度干预可能对美国和世界其他国家构成严重的经济风险。 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德周一在接受法国古典广播电台采访时表示，罢免美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔或美联储理事丽莎·库克 的行为"将对美国经济和世界经济构成非常严重的危险"。 特朗普试图解雇库克，是美国历史上总统首次试图罢免美联储现任理事，而这一情况的新颖性可能会导致案件上诉至最高法院 。如 果总统能够成功罢免库克，他将能够任命一位支持其降息立场的继任者。 拉加德解释说："如果美国货币政策不再独立，而是取决于这个人或那个人的指令，那么我相信，这将对美国经济平衡产生影响，并 进而对全球产生影响，这是非常令人担忧的，因为它是世界上最大的经济体。" 特朗普曾多次威胁要解雇他于 2017 年任命为主席的鲍威尔，原因是鲍威尔没有降低美联储的基准联邦基金利率——尽管今年夏天他 已经收回了这些威胁，因为鲍威尔的任期将于 2026 年 5 月到期。 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示，美联储改变其独立货币政策可能会损害美国经济。 特朗普的盟友 ...

Group 1 - The credibility of economic data, particularly employment and CPI reports, has significantly declined, leading to increased uncertainty in market reactions [1][2][3] - Employment reports have been repeatedly revised downward, causing skepticism among economists regarding the accuracy of initial data releases [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection has become less reliable due to staffing issues, resulting in a higher reliance on estimates rather than actual price checks [3] Group 2 - Wall Street has adapted to the data uncertainty by applying a "revision premium," anticipating that initial data will be corrected in the future [4] - The rise of alternative data sources, such as satellite imagery and credit card transaction analysis, has provided traders with independent verification opportunities [4] - The Federal Reserve's acknowledgment of declining data coverage has raised concerns about its ability to make accurate decisions based on potentially flawed data [4] Group 3 - The ongoing crisis of data credibility highlights the importance of data quality over quantity in a data-driven financial environment [5] - The financial market's ability to handle bad news is challenged by the prevalence of poor-quality data, emphasizing the need for reliable economic indicators [5]

Core Insights - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates a complex inflation situation, with overall price pressures easing slightly but core inflation remaining stubbornly high, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's battle against rising prices is far from over [1][2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI-U rose by 0.2% in July, a slowdown compared to June's 0.3% increase, while the overall inflation rate stabilized at 2.7% over the past year, still above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector [1] Federal Reserve Impact - The mixed report places the Federal Reserve in a cautious position, as the moderate overall inflation rate is a positive sign, but sticky core inflation may prevent any premature declarations of victory [2] - Fed officials are expected to maintain a data-dependent stance, closely monitoring upcoming employment and inflation reports before making significant policy shifts [2] - The data reinforces the notion that taming inflation's "last mile" may be the most challenging aspect, with the Fed under pressure to remain vigilant [2] Market Reaction - Financial markets may interpret the report with some ambiguity, potentially leading to volatility; while the softer overall data could support stock markets hoping for an end to monetary tightening, strong core data may bolster the dollar and exert upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [3] - The July CPI data serves as a reminder that the path to price stability is not straightforward, with the economy, the Fed, and investors needing to navigate an uncertain environment [3] - The next CPI report, scheduled for release on September 11, will be crucial in determining the future direction of inflation and monetary policy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous release of the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to disrupt the current calm in the U.S. bond market, potentially leading to significant volatility [1] Group 1: Auction Demand and Market Sentiment - Investor focus is on the demand for upcoming auctions, particularly due to concerns that trade policies may deter foreign buyers, who are typically significant holders of U.S. Treasuries [2] - The recent poor performance of the 20-year Treasury auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 and a yield of 5.047%, reflects growing investor anxiety [2] - Recent 10-year Treasury auctions have shown robust performance, with foreign investor participation above average, indicating that inflation concerns may outweigh trade worries [2] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Economists predict a 0.2% month-over-month increase in CPI and a 2.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year [3] - There are concerns that any unexpected rise in inflation could unsettle investors, posing risks to the labor market and economic growth [3] Group 3: Potential Risks from Auction Performance - A poor performance in the bond auction combined with higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a sharp increase in bond yields, representing a dual threat to the market [4] - The upcoming auction of long-term bonds is crucial for gauging investor interest in U.S. Treasuries amid rising debt and deficit concerns [5] - Experts warn that continued poor auction results could signal deeper issues in the market, with rising yields being a significant concern [5]

Core Insights - Despite concerns about tariffs announced by Trump potentially increasing U.S. inflation, market indicators suggest that investor worries about future price surges are not strong [1][2] - The announcement of large tariffs on April 2 did not significantly impact the one-year U.S. inflation swap rate, which remained stable at 3.4% compared to 3.36% the previous week [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is crucial for assessing inflation trends, as it is a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [2] Inflation Indicators - Recent inflation indicators show an upward trend, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating the fastest increase in input costs and output prices since 2022 [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending in April shows an inflation rate of 2.3%, with the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) higher at 2.8% [6] Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, initial market volatility was observed, but as trade negotiations progressed, market fluctuations began to stabilize [2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, spiked in early April but has since returned to around 20, close to its long-term average [2] - The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also seen a significant decline since early April [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that tariffs will lead to a one-time increase in prices, with core PCE inflation expected to rebound to 3.6% later this year before declining next year [8] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with a recent survey indicating a jump from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May [9] - Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. economy is expected to remain weak, with growth below potential and a moderate rise in unemployment [9] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved significantly following Trump's announcement to delay high tariffs on the EU, leading to substantial gains in U.S. stock markets [9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.8%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.5% on the day following the tariff delay announcement [9] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 7.6 basis points to 4.432%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 24 [9]