华尔街的交易大厅里，曾经有那么几天，每个月的"就业星期五"和"CPI星期三"就像是圣诞节一样，充 满了期待与刺激。那时，美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据是市场的北极星，指引着数万亿美元的资金流 向。但现在，这颗北极星似乎开始打转了，而且转得有点让人头晕。 CPI：当价格收集员变成"统计猜测师" 如果说就业数据是个"草稿"，那消费者物价指数（CPI）的状况就更像是一场"侦探游戏"了。由于2025 年1月的联邦招聘冻结和随后的人员流失，BLS的价格收集员队伍变得"精简"了许多。结果呢？他们不 得不更多地依赖"估算"——也就是说，当他们无法亲自去商店查看价格时，就得靠"猜"了。 "这就像你点了一份牛排，结果厨师说他没时间去买肉，所以他'估计'牛排应该是这个味道。"一位分析 师耸耸肩说，"而且，他们'估计'的比例还越来越高，从15%飙到35%！难怪我们对核心CPI的预期老是 错，感情BLS的猜测比我们的模型还准。"这种情况，让那些依赖CPI数据来预测美联储政策的基金经理 们，感觉自己像是在玩一场蒙眼射飞镖的游戏。 华尔街的应对：从"相信"到"验证" 面对这种"数据迷雾"，华尔街的聪明钱自然不会坐以待毙。 "现在，每次数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous release of the $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to disrupt the current calm in the U.S. bond market, potentially leading to significant volatility [1] Group 1: Auction Demand and Market Sentiment - Investor focus is on the demand for upcoming auctions, particularly due to concerns that trade policies may deter foreign buyers, who are typically significant holders of U.S. Treasuries [2] - The recent poor performance of the 20-year Treasury auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 and a yield of 5.047%, reflects growing investor anxiety [2] - Recent 10-year Treasury auctions have shown robust performance, with foreign investor participation above average, indicating that inflation concerns may outweigh trade worries [2] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - Economists predict a 0.2% month-over-month increase in CPI and a 2.4% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year [3] - There are concerns that any unexpected rise in inflation could unsettle investors, posing risks to the labor market and economic growth [3] Group 3: Potential Risks from Auction Performance - A poor performance in the bond auction combined with higher-than-expected inflation could lead to a sharp increase in bond yields, representing a dual threat to the market [4] - The upcoming auction of long-term bonds is crucial for gauging investor interest in U.S. Treasuries amid rising debt and deficit concerns [5] - Experts warn that continued poor auction results could signal deeper issues in the market, with rising yields being a significant concern [5]

Core Insights - Despite concerns about tariffs announced by Trump potentially increasing U.S. inflation, market indicators suggest that investor worries about future price surges are not strong [1][2] - The announcement of large tariffs on April 2 did not significantly impact the one-year U.S. inflation swap rate, which remained stable at 3.4% compared to 3.36% the previous week [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data is crucial for assessing inflation trends, as it is a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [2] Inflation Indicators - Recent inflation indicators show an upward trend, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicating the fastest increase in input costs and output prices since 2022 [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ending in April shows an inflation rate of 2.3%, with the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) higher at 2.8% [6] Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcement, initial market volatility was observed, but as trade negotiations progressed, market fluctuations began to stabilize [2] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, spiked in early April but has since returned to around 20, close to its long-term average [2] - The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which tracks bond market volatility, has also seen a significant decline since early April [2] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that tariffs will lead to a one-time increase in prices, with core PCE inflation expected to rebound to 3.6% later this year before declining next year [8] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with a recent survey indicating a jump from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May [9] - Despite inflation concerns, the U.S. economy is expected to remain weak, with growth below potential and a moderate rise in unemployment [9] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved significantly following Trump's announcement to delay high tariffs on the EU, leading to substantial gains in U.S. stock markets [9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.8%, the S&P 500 increased by 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.5% on the day following the tariff delay announcement [9] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 7.6 basis points to 4.432%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 24 [9]