Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for December 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Price Indices - The expected buy price for CEA is 53.45 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 61.65 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 57.55 CNY/ton [1] - The expected buy price for CCER is 59.00 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 69.40 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 64.20 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index for CCER decreased by 1.12% to 148.32, while the sell price index increased by 1.80% to 166.95 [1] Group 2: Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.31 CNY/unit, with a price index of 78.36 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from distributed projects is 4.39 CNY/unit, with a price index of 89.07 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from biomass power generation is 3.53 CNY/unit, with a price index of 68.41 [2] Group 3: Carbon Market Performance - In November, the average closing price for CEA was 59.87 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 11% compared to October's average of 53.94 CNY/ton [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in November was 236.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.38% from October's 244.49 million tons [2] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step in carbon market management [3] - By 2027, additional industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking will be included in the carbon market, covering approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [3] Group 5: Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market showed overall recovery in trading volume, although the Korean carbon market experienced a notable decline [4] - Major global carbon markets generally saw price fluctuations, with mixed results in trading prices month-over-month [4]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for December 2025, including the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price index, the national voluntary emission reduction (CCER) price index, and the Chinese Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] Carbon Emission Allowance and CCER Price Trends - The expected buying price for the CEA in December 2025 is 53.45 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 61.65 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 57.55 CNY/ton; the buying price index is 100.00, and the selling price index is 105.82, with a midpoint price index of 103.03 [2] - The expected buying price for CCER is 59.00 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 69.40 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 64.20 CNY/ton; the buying price index is 148.32 (down 1.12%), the selling price index is 166.95 (up 1.80%), and the midpoint price index is 157.84 (up 0.44%) [2] Green Certificate Price Index Trends - The expected price for the 2024 produced centralized project green certificates is 2.89 CNY/unit, with a price index of 58.38; for distributed projects, the price is 2.6 CNY/unit (index 49.73); and for biomass power generation, the price is 1.48 CNY/unit (index 32.96) [4] - The expected price for the 2025 produced centralized project green certificates is 4.31 CNY/unit (index 78.36); for distributed projects, the price is 4.39 CNY/unit (index 89.07); and for biomass power generation, the price is 3.53 CNY/unit (index 68.41) [4] - Price trends for green certificates show divergence, with distributed and biomass project certificates increasing in price for 2024, while centralized project certificates decreased; for 2025, centralized and distributed project certificates increased, while biomass project certificates decreased [4] Carbon Market Activity in November - The average closing price for CEA in November was 59.87 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 11% compared to October's average of 53.94 CNY/ton; the price showed a notable rise and fall, peaking at 67.87 CNY/ton before dropping back below 60 CNY/ton [6] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in November was 236.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.38% from October's 244.49 million tons; nearly two-thirds of trading days saw volumes exceeding 2 million tons, with a peak of 420.29 million tons on November 11 [6] National Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking a significant step in expanding the carbon market; by 2027, additional industries such as chemicals, aviation, and paper will be included, covering approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [7] - Global carbon markets showed overall recovery in November, with the EU carbon market's average daily trading volume increasing by 52.21%, while the UK market rose by 16.73%; however, the Korean market experienced a decline of 32.53% [7] Global Carbon Market Price Trends - In November, the EU carbon market price decreased from 93.36 USD/ton to 92.93 USD/ton, a drop of 0.46%, while the average daily price increased by 2.46%; the UK market price fell from 76.19 USD/ton to 75.81 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.50%, with a daily average increase of 1.64% [8] - The Korean carbon market price dropped from 7.28 USD/ton to 7.07 USD/ton, a decline of 2.80%, with a daily average price decrease of 0.75%; the New Zealand market price fell from 33.16 USD/ton to 32.43 USD/ton, a decrease of 2.18%, while the daily average price increased by 0.61% [8]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for October 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, voluntary carbon market (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1][2]. CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buying price for CEA in October 2025 is 55.39 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 60.63 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 58.00 CNY/ton. The buying price index decreased by 19.09%, and the selling price index decreased by 16.23% [2][3]. - For December 2025, the expected buying price for CEA is 62.10 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 70.45 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 66.28 CNY/ton [2][3]. - The expected buying price for CCER in October 2025 is 69.00 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 76.83 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 72.92 CNY/ton. The buying price index decreased by 7.75%, and the selling price index decreased by 9.29% [2][3]. GEC Price Indices - The expected price for green certificates (GEC) for centralized projects produced in 2024 is 3.11 CNY/unit, with a price index of 62.79. For distributed projects, the price is 2.82 CNY/unit (index 53.87), and for biomass power generation, it is 1.84 CNY/unit (index 40.88) [4][5]. - For 2025 production, the expected price for centralized projects is 5.45 CNY/unit (index 99.09), for distributed projects is 5.20 CNY/unit (index 105.51), and for biomass projects is 5.55 CNY/unit (index 107.56) [4][5]. Market Activity in September - In September, the average closing price for CEA was 62.94 CNY/ton, down 11.5% from August's average of 71.12 CNY/ton. The price fluctuated from 69.41 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 59.16 CNY/ton by the end [6]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances increased to 136.78 million tons, a 90% increase compared to August's 71.95 million tons, indicating heightened market activity [6]. - The announcement of China's 2035 national contributions reflects a comprehensive approach to low-carbon development, emphasizing China's role in global climate governance [6]. Global Carbon Market Trends - In September, global carbon market trading volumes generally increased, with the EU market seeing a 30.02% rise in average daily trading volume, while the Korean market experienced a 49.10% decline [7]. - The EU carbon market's average price rose from 86.18 USD/ton to 88.90 USD/ton, while the UK market's price increased from 73.04 USD/ton to 75.99 USD/ton [7].

Group 1 - The national carbon market closed at 72.43 yuan/ton on August 1, down 0.07% from the previous day, with a 3.39% decline from the end of June [1] - In July, the national carbon market saw a total trading volume of 11.6642 million tons, a decrease of 26.57% month-on-month, ending a four-month growth trend [1] - The average daily trading volume in July was 510,300 tons, down 35.75% from June's 794,200 tons [1] Group 2 - The Fudan Carbon Price Index forecasts a buying price of 71.25 yuan/ton and a selling price of 76.04 yuan/ton for carbon emission allowances (CEA) by August 2025 [2] - As of July, the national carbon market has cumulatively traded 6.811 billion tons, with a total transaction value of 46.823 billion yuan [2] - The carbon trading management regulations will take effect on May 1, 2024, marking a significant step in the development of the carbon market [2] Group 3 - The chairman of Shanghai Environment Energy Exchange stated that efforts will continue to enhance the mechanisms of the national carbon trading market [3]