Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for February 2026, indicating expected buy and sell prices for carbon emission allowances and certified voluntary emission reductions [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) - The expected buy price for CEA in February 2026 is 72.47 CNY/ton, while the sell price is projected at 83.69 CNY/ton, with a midpoint price of 78.09 CNY/ton [1]. - The buy price index for CEA is 181.18, reflecting a 9.59% increase, and the sell price index is 188.83, showing a 12.88% rise, with the midpoint price index at 185.22, up by 11.35% [1]. Certified Voluntary Emission Reductions (CCER) - The expected buy price for CCER in February 2026 is 71.80 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.80 CNY/ton and a midpoint price of 77.80 CNY/ton [1]. - The buy price index for CCER is 180.49, up by 8.13%, while the sell price index is 201.59, increasing by 7.99%, and the midpoint price index is 191.27, reflecting an 8.06% rise [1]. Green Electricity Certificates (GEC) - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 7.38 CNY/unit, with a price index of 134.18; for distributed projects, the price is 7.05 CNY/unit and a price index of 143.04; and for biomass power generation, the price is 7.04 CNY/unit with a price index of 136.43 [2]. - All three categories of green certificates have seen price increases compared to January 2026, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the highest increase of 53% [2]. Market Performance - In January, the average closing price for CEA was 77.54 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 22.55% compared to December 2025 [3]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in January was 62.97 million tons, a decrease of nearly 70% from December, indicating reduced market activity following compliance deadlines [3]. - Globally, carbon markets experienced a decline in trading volumes, with notable drops in the UK and South Korea, while prices remained relatively stable across most markets [3].

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for January 2026, indicating a buy price expectation of 66.13 CNY/ton and a sell price expectation of 74.14 CNY/ton for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) [1] - The expected buy price for CEA in December 2026 is projected to be 70.32 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 85.36 CNY/ton, reflecting an upward trend in carbon pricing [1] - The buy price index for January 2026 is 165.33, while the sell price index is 167.28, indicating a stable market outlook [1] Group 2 - The research center reported that the price of green certificates for centralized projects, distributed projects, and biomass power generation in 2025 is expected to rise, with centralized project certificates priced at 5.93 CNY/unit, an increase of over 25% [2] - The price index for distributed project green certificates is 113.83, while biomass power generation certificates are priced at 4.6 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase across all categories [2] - The price ranking from highest to lowest remains centralized project certificates, distributed project certificates, and biomass power generation certificates [2] Group 3 - In December, the average closing price of CEA was 61.83 CNY/ton, a notable increase of approximately 3.27% compared to November's average closing price of 59.87 CNY/ton [3] - The trading volume for carbon allowances in December averaged 201.28 million tons, a decrease of 15.7% from November's 238.77 million tons, yet the market remained active with significant trading days [3] - The highest single-day trading volume was recorded on December 23, reaching 357.39 million tons, indicating robust market activity despite the overall decline in average volume [3]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for December 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Price Indices - The expected buy price for CEA is 53.45 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 61.65 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 57.55 CNY/ton [1] - The expected buy price for CCER is 59.00 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 69.40 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 64.20 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index for CCER decreased by 1.12% to 148.32, while the sell price index increased by 1.80% to 166.95 [1] Group 2: Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.31 CNY/unit, with a price index of 78.36 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from distributed projects is 4.39 CNY/unit, with a price index of 89.07 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from biomass power generation is 3.53 CNY/unit, with a price index of 68.41 [2] Group 3: Carbon Market Performance - In November, the average closing price for CEA was 59.87 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 11% compared to October's average of 53.94 CNY/ton [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in November was 236.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.38% from October's 244.49 million tons [2] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step in carbon market management [3] - By 2027, additional industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking will be included in the carbon market, covering approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [3] Group 5: Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market showed overall recovery in trading volume, although the Korean carbon market experienced a notable decline [4] - Major global carbon markets generally saw price fluctuations, with mixed results in trading prices month-over-month [4]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for September 2025, indicating a buy price expectation of 68.46 CNY/ton and a sell price expectation of 72.38 CNY/ton for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) [1] - The buy price index for CEA decreased by 3.92% to 171.15, while the sell price index fell by 4.81% to 163.31, resulting in a mid-price index drop of 4.38% to 167.03 [1] - The prices for three types of domestic green certificates (GEC) produced in 2024 and 2025 showed a comprehensive decline, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the largest drop [1] Group 2 - In August, the average closing price for CEA was 71.39 CNY/ton, down approximately 3% from July's average of 73.57 CNY/ton, indicating a downward trend in carbon prices [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased by about 9% to 55.26 million tons compared to July, with market trading stability improving significantly [2] - The release of the "Opinions" by the Central Committee and the State Council on August 25 aims to enhance the national carbon market, promoting a unified market and optimizing resource allocation efficiency [2][3]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for August 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices and China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) prices [1] - The expected buy price for CEA in August 2025 is 71.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.04 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.65 CNY/ton [1] - The expected buy price for CCER in August 2025 is 76.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.59 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 79.91 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The research center also published green certificate prices for centralized projects, distributed projects, and biomass power generation for 2024 and 2025 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 7.82 CNY/unit, while distributed projects are expected to be 6.94 CNY/unit, and biomass power generation is expected to be 6.77 CNY/unit [2] - Compared to July 2025, the prices of green certificates for 2024 and 2025 show mixed trends, with some prices increasing and others decreasing [2] Group 3 - In July, the average closing price for CEA was 73.64 CNY/ton, an increase of approximately 3% compared to June's average of 71.51 CNY/ton [3] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in July was 51.03 million tons, a decrease of 35.75% from June's 79.42 million tons, ending a four-month increase in trading volume [3] - Despite the decrease in trading volume, it remains at a high level, showing a year-on-year increase of nearly 236%, indicating enhanced trading activity in the national carbon emissions trading market [3]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for July 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price indices and China Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] - The expected buy price for national carbon emission allowances in July 2025 is 70.67 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 76.67 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.67 yuan/ton [1] - The buy price index increased by 3.37% to 176.66, while the sell price index rose by 2.52% to 172.98, and the midpoint price index increased by 2.93% to 174.73 [1] Group 2 - In June, the carbon price continued to rise, starting from 68.34 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and reaching 76.57 yuan/ton by the end, with a monthly increase of over 12% [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in June was 781,000 tons, a 43.1% increase compared to May's 545,800 tons [2] - Global carbon markets showed varied performance in June, with different trading volumes and price trends across major carbon markets, and New Zealand's carbon market experienced the largest month-on-month price increase [2]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for May 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) at 78.37 CNY/ton and 82.66 CNY/ton respectively, with a midpoint of 80.52 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index decreased by 7.70%, the sell price index decreased by 7.32%, and the midpoint price index decreased by 7.51% [1] Group 2 - The research center provided price expectations for green certificates (GEC) for 2024 and 2025, with the price for centralized projects in May 2025 expected to be 5.20 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The price for distributed projects in May 2025 is expected to be 4.87 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation, it is expected to be 4.48 CNY/unit, indicating an overall increase in green certificate prices [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration announced the launch of the green certificate cancellation function, enhancing the transparency and regulation of the green power consumption management system [3] - In April, the average closing price of CEA was 82.26 CNY/ton, down 6.42% from March, while the average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased significantly to 23.31 million tons, nearly doubling from March [3]