ESG 投资策略报告 碳双控背景下碳因子整合策略新径 —— 低碳转型基金策略研究系列 2026 年 3 月 4 日 核心观点 分析师 马宗明 ：18600816533 :mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 研究助理 方嘉成 ：17394948526 :fangjiacheng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 1. 【银河 ESG】厚积薄发，志存高远——ESG 投资 策略解析与优化构建 2. 【银河 ESG】穿越市场周期变幻：ESG 舆情整合 策略新径 3. 【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 舆情整合策略超额收益为 5.94%——ESG 策略周度报告（20250419） 4. 【银河 ESG】本周 ESG 舆情整合策略超额收益为 1.32%——ESG 策略周度报告（20250531） www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 ⚫ 我国 "十五五" 时期，碳达峰将成为重点发力方向，碳市场建设是应对 气候变化、推进生态文明建设与高质量发展的核心抓手。党的 ...

核心结论 2026 年是"十五五"规划的第一年，纲领性政策前置，预估双碳将有望成为贯穿全年的重要议题。2027 年化工行业 纳入全国碳排放权交易市场，其后化工行业的约束将逐步落地，且相比能耗管控碳排带来的影响更为有效和直接：① 行业新增产能约束明显，同时受到多行业指标竞争以及减量替换的影响；②碳排配额的盈缺率将明显提升产品成本曲 线的陡峭程度，放大行业头尾部企业的差距；③行业集中度将有望获得改善，行业的周期属性有望明显降低。 投资逻辑 风险提示 政策落地不及预期风险；贸易环境变化风险；需求不及预期风险；行业协同反内卷执行不及预期风险等。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 碳达峰及碳中和对于化工行业的约束相对较高，因而真正落实确实会实际性产生行业影响。在化工行业，煤炭仍是多 数一体化布局企业的供能主力，且伴随国内煤化工产能布局持续增多，化工用煤量仍然处于快速提升态势；虽然很多 大宗化工产品已经供给充裕，但优秀企业的个体扩张发展和行业整体接近"饱和"的状态冲突依然存在；在碳达峰的 约束下，新兴行业和传统赛道的"碳"性价比衡量也将对传统化工行业品种形成约束；④碳减排的要求促使企业未来 不得不考虑进行减碳和固碳的方向布局 ...

报告显示，初步核算，2025年全年能源消费总量61.7亿吨标准煤，比上年增长3.5%。煤炭消费量增长 0.1%，原油消费量增长3.6%，天然气消费量增长2.0%，电力消费量增长5.0%。煤炭消费量占能源消费 总量比重为51.4%，比上年下降1.8个百分点；天然气、水电、核电、风电、太阳能发电等清洁能源消费 量占能源消费总量比重为30.4%，上升1.8个百分点。重点耗能工业企业单位电石综合能耗下降0.7%，单 位合成氨综合能耗下降2.3%，吨钢综合能耗上升1.9%，单位电解铝综合能耗下降0.9%，每千瓦时火力 发电标准煤耗与上年持平。初步测算，扣除原料用能和非化石能源消费量后，全国万元国内生产总值能 耗比上年下降5.1%。全国碳排放权交易市场碳排放配额成交量2.35亿吨，成交额146.3亿元。 2月28日，国家统计局发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。 ...

（来源：中国改革报） 转自：中国改革报 湖北省发展改革委价格管理处坚持向高而攀、向上而行，敢于担当、务实作为，多项工作受到湖北省 委、省政府肯定。 一是坚持统筹谋划，勇争国家决策部署落地"排头兵"。大力推动新能源上网电价市场化改革，高效完成 历次输配电价改革，组织落实湖北省电网输配电价改革，优化输配电价结构，建立健全煤电容量电价机 制，研究建立省内煤电机组容量电价政策体系，着力推进天然气上下游价格联动，指导全省56个县市建 立居民价格联动机制、63个县市建立非居民价格联动机制，理顺价格，有效缓解倒挂矛盾。牵头抓好农 业水价综合改革，有序推动市级验收和省级核验，扎实推动污水处理收费改革试点，组织宜昌市、荆州 市、鄂州市积极申报国家沿江城市污水改革试点，纳入试点城市名单。 二是坚持创新施策，勇当服务高质量发展"先锋队"。会同能源部门持续深化改革，确保湖北工商业电价 稳中有降、保持在合理水平，实体经济获得感大大增强。系统优化分时电价机制，先后制定出台工商业 分时电价、节假日深谷电价、居民充电桩分时电价、工商业充电桩临时分时电价等政策，方便企业群众 享受低价电，助力电网"削峰填谷"，提升系统运行质效。健全自备电厂交叉 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the market focus has shifted to the upcoming US CPI data. For various commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy impacts, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity [4][7][9]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Index - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; the European Central Bank Executive Committee will expand the scope of application of the euro back - up financing mechanism; many car companies disclosed their solid - state battery technology paths and industrial plans; some companies made progress in 3D printing technology and PCB production [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Presented the basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods [3]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the intensifying divergence in US monetary policy expectations, the risk appetite of the capital market is suppressed, and the US stocks and precious metals are highly volatile. Domestically, the liquidity is tightened seasonally approaching the Spring Festival. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental scale of 50 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. In 2025, commercial banks' net profit was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the average capital profit rate and average asset profit rate were 7.78% and 0.60% respectively. The central bank's net injection on Thursday was 44.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: On Thursday, precious metals tumbled. The decline was due to the decline of US technology stocks, investors' forced liquidation, and profit - taking. The US initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data were released, and the US existing home sales in January decreased by 8.4% month - on - month [8]. - **Strategy View**: Although short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, they are still in a high - level volatile pattern. The market is waiting for the US CPI data. The strategy is to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 950 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Before the domestic long holiday, funds were cautious. Overnight silver and US stocks declined, and copper prices fell after rising. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased [12][13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the market sentiment is affected by the decline of precious metals, the strong manufacturing in Europe and the US provides support. The copper price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 99000 - 103000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton for LME copper [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Mozambique aluminum smelter is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic demand is weak, but the low LME inventory and high US aluminum spot premium support the price. The aluminum price is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 23200 - 23600 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3050 - 3140 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc index rose slightly. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation was average [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc mine inventory accumulation slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC stabilized. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, the strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise, and there is still a risk of price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [17][18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead index fell slightly. The lead ingot social inventory increased, and the waste battery inventory was higher than that in 2025 [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee is low. The lead price is near the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and whether it can stabilize depends on the post - holiday restocking willingness of downstream enterprises [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated. The spot premium of nickel was stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The price of nickel iron rose slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term rebound demand, but the nickel price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern due to fundamental pressure. The approved nickel ore production quota has little impact on the price, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fluctuated. The smelter's production in Yunnan was stable, and that in Jiangxi was low due to the shortage of waste tin raw materials. The downstream demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price may rebound with the stabilization of precious metals, but it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the futures price fell slightly. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to be strong. The short - term supply - demand pattern is tight. The upstream has more bargaining power after the holiday. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount to the main contract [26]. - **Strategy View**: There is a strike in the Guinea bauxite mine area, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton for the main contract AO2605 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton for the main contract [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded slightly, and the trading volume increased. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price is supported by supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The rebar inventory started to accumulate, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The carbon emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The steel market is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron water production is in a recovery trend. The ore price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic terminal demand after the festival [37]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were at a premium to the futures prices [38]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas coal - related disturbances have a positive impact on sentiment, but the short - term upward drive of coking coal is not strong. The downstream replenishment is coming to an end, and there is a risk of price correction after the festival. Coking coal may have a better performance from June to October [40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak [44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a volatile and sorted pattern, with the reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton for the main contract [45]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak [46]. - **Strategy View**: The soda ash market is in a weak and stable volatile pattern, with the reference range of 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton for the main contract [46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices were at a premium to the futures prices [47]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures price fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [50]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in February. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [51]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures price fell. The supply decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is expected to be in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and spot prices [53]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated with the commodity market. The tire enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [56][57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival, trade short - term on the disk, and hold a hedging position during the festival [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price rose slightly. The US crude oil commercial inventory increased, and the diesel and fuel oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [61]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot price changed slightly, and the futures price decreased [62]. - **Strategy View**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [63]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot price was stable, and the futures price rose [64]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is negative. It is recommended to short - sell [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, and attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol market needs to reduce production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA market is in the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to be stable at a high level, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips after the Spring Festival [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand from downstream PTA was weak. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [73][74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. The trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival [76]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term pig price is under pressure due to large supply and high inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The long - term price may be supported by seasonal factors and demand recovery [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable in most markets approaching the Spring Festival [78]. - **Strategy View**: The egg market is in the inventory - accumulation period. The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short - sell. The long - term price trend depends on capacity reduction [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price rose. The global soybean supply and demand were slightly adjusted in the USDA report [80]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term protein meal price is expected to be in a volatile pattern due to the increase in US soybean procurement expectations and the rise in import costs [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean oil price rose, the palm oil price fell, and the rapeseed oil price was stable. The global palm oil supply and demand data were released [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth this year. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data were released [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest is completed. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rose. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data were released in the USDA report [88][89]. - **Strategy View**: The USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the shock range after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy [90].

CEA-价格季节性分析 元/吨 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 110 100 90 80 70 60 03/12 04/17 05/25 06/29 08/03 09/07 10/19 11/23 12/28 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 研究员:何颚昀 从业资格号:F03100810 投资咨询号:Z0021074 CEA-累计成交量季节性分析 碳市场数据报告 2026-02-12 中国 恢 门 切 (CEA数据截止:2026年2月11日;CCER数据截止:2026年2月11日) | 碳交易 | 当日最新价 | 当日价格涨幅 | 2026价格累计涨幅 | 当日成交量 | 2026累计成交量 | 2026累计成交量同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/吨 | % | 96 | 八 相 | / 万吨 | 比增幅 % | | CEA: 挂牌 | 78. 70 | -2. 24% | 5. 45% | 20000 | 162. 89 | 57. 05% | | CEA: 大宗 | 78. 63 | 0. 04 ...

Group 1 - A recent case in Ningxia highlights that some key emission units lack a deep understanding of the carbon emission trading market and the importance of timely and full compliance with carbon emission quota payments [1] - The national carbon emission trading market aims to achieve China's "dual carbon" goals by enforcing mandatory emission reduction responsibilities among key emission units, promoting greenhouse gas reduction at the lowest social cost [1] - Since its launch in 2021, the national carbon market has completed three compliance submissions, maintaining a high overall compliance rate, although some key emission units have failed to meet their quota obligations on time [1] Group 2 - The "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading Management," effective from May 1, 2024, impose fines on key emission units that fail to comply with quota payments, with penalties ranging from five to ten times the average market transaction price of the unpaid quotas [2] - The regulations also outline requirements for carbon emission data quality and the supervision of technical service institutions, clarifying the penalties for violations [2] - The carbon market currently includes 3,378 key emission units and aims to cover major industrial sectors by 2027, with ongoing efforts to enhance the market structure and combat data fraud [2] Group 3 - The recent carbon emission penalty case serves as a reminder for key emission units to continuously understand and adapt to the evolving rules of the carbon market, emphasizing the need for legal awareness and proactive compliance [3] - Companies are encouraged to improve their carbon emission and asset management capabilities to contribute to sustainable development and the green transformation of the economy and society [3]

（文章来源：新华财经） 2026年12月31日前，省级生态环境主管部门组织发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业重点排放单位按时足额 完成2025年度碳排放配额清缴。 新华财经北京2月9日电生态环境部办公厅2月9日公布《关于做好2026年全国碳排放权交易市场有关工作 的通知》。其中明确，2026年4月10日前，省级生态环境主管部门向钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业重点排放 单位预分配2025年度碳排放配额。2026年6月30日前向发电行业重点排放单位预分配2025年度碳排放配 额。 2026年9月20日前，省级生态环境主管部门基于2025年度核查结果，按照年度配额总量和分配方案核定 2025年度发电、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业重点排放单位应发放配额量，并向全国碳排放权注册登记机构 书面报送相关数据表，进行核定配额的注册登记。9月30日前，省级生态环境主管部门向发电、钢铁、 水泥、铝冶炼行业重点排放单位分配2025年度碳排放配额。 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon emissions trading market has been a key policy tool for achieving the "dual carbon" goals since its launch, with significant progress made in its development and operation [1][2] - As of December 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the carbon market is expected to reach 865 million tons, with a total transaction value of 57.663 billion RMB [1] - The market currently includes approximately 3,300 key emission units, covering about 65% of the national carbon dioxide emissions [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The carbon market has shown steady growth, with a trading volume of 235 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24%, and a transaction value of 14.630 billion RMB [1] Future Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to accelerate the construction of the national carbon market, revising the "Carbon Emission Trading Management Measures (Trial)" to adapt to new market conditions [2] - There will be an expansion of industry coverage and optimization of the carbon emission trading market quota allocation scheme, gradually tightening quota distribution while implementing a combination of free and paid allocation methods [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company Ningxia Tianrui Thermal Energy Co., Ltd. has been fined 423.99 million yuan for failing to timely fulfill carbon emission quota obligations during the third compliance period, marking a significant shift in the enforcement of carbon compliance regulations in China [1][2][7]. Group 1: Company Penalties and Compliance - Tianrui Thermal Energy has received multiple penalties for non-compliance, with fines escalating from 29,000 yuan to 4.2 billion yuan over three compliance periods due to late quota submissions and inaccurate greenhouse gas emission reports [6][7]. - The recent fine of 4.2 billion yuan is the first major penalty under the newly implemented Carbon Emission Trading Management Regulations, emphasizing the legal responsibility of companies to comply with carbon quota requirements [2][7]. - The company has been penalized four times for failing to meet compliance deadlines, indicating a pattern of non-compliance that has resulted in significant financial repercussions [1][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework and Market Implications - The new regulations, effective from May 1, 2024, impose fines ranging from five to ten times the market average for non-compliance, highlighting the increased financial risks for companies that fail to adhere to carbon emission standards [2][8]. - The substantial penalty serves as a warning to other major emission units, signaling that the era of low compliance costs is over and that proactive carbon asset management is essential for sustainability [2][9]. - The carbon market is expected to transition from a "soft constraint" to a "hard constraint," with stricter regulations and increasing carbon prices anticipated, which will further elevate the costs associated with non-compliance [8][9].