Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for November 2025, indicating a significant decline in carbon emission allowance prices and green certificate prices [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Prices - The expected buy price for the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in November 2025 is 47.59 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 55.42 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 yuan/ton. The buy price index decreased by 14.08%, and the sell price index decreased by 8.59% [1]. - For December 2025, the expected buy price is 55.63 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 65.35 yuan/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 60.50 yuan/ton [1]. Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.24 yuan/unit, with a price index of 77.09. For distributed projects, the price is 3.65 yuan/unit (index 74.06), and for biomass power generation, it is 3.81 yuan/unit (index 73.84) [2]. - All green certificate prices showed a decline compared to October 2025, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the largest drop [2]. Market Performance Overview - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 yuan/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 yuan/ton. The carbon price exhibited a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [2]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances was 1.7214 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 1.4864 million tons, indicating active market trading as the compliance period approaches [2]. Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, although the Korean carbon market experienced a slight decline. The price trends varied across major global carbon markets, with mixed performance in trading prices [3].

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center has released the carbon price index results for October 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, CCER prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] Carbon Emission Allowance Prices - The expected buy price for the national CEA in October 2025 is 55.39 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 60.63 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 58.00 CNY/ton; the buy price index decreased by 19.09% to 138.48, while the sell price index fell by 16.23% to 136.80, and the midpoint price index dropped by 17.64% to 137.57 [2] - For December 2025, the expected buy price for the national CEA is 62.10 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 70.45 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 66.28 CNY/ton; the buy price index is 116.18 and the sell price index is 120.92 [2] CCER Prices - The expected buy price for the CCER in October 2025 is 69.00 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.83 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 72.92 CNY/ton; the buy price index decreased by 7.75% to 173.45, while the sell price index fell by 9.29% to 184.82, and the midpoint price index dropped by 8.57% to 179.27 [2] Green Electricity Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 5.45 CNY/unit, with a price index of 99.09; for distributed projects, the price is 5.20 CNY/unit with a price index of 105.51; and for biomass power generation, the price is 5.55 CNY/unit with a price index of 107.56 [3] - Compared to September 2025, the prices for most green certificates have adjusted downwards, except for the centralized project green certificates from 2024 [3] Market Performance - In September, the average closing price for CEA was 62.94 CNY/ton, a significant decrease of 11.5% from August's average of 71.12 CNY/ton; the carbon price showed a downward trend, dropping from 69.41 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 59.16 CNY/ton by the end [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in September was 136.78 million tons, an increase of approximately 90% compared to August's 71.95 million tons, indicating heightened market activity [4] - The peak trading volume occurred on September 26, reaching 318.29 million tons, reflecting increased trading enthusiasm as the compliance period approached [4]

Group 1 - The national carbon market closed at 72.43 yuan/ton on August 1, showing a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous day, and a decline of 3.39% from the end of June [1] - In July, the total trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 11.6642 million tons, representing a significant decrease of 26.57% month-on-month, with the average daily trading volume dropping by 35.75% compared to June [1] - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center noted that the carbon price fluctuated downwards in July, narrowing the price range from 74.28 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 72.33 yuan/ton by the end [1] Group 2 - The Fudan Carbon Price Index forecasts that by August 2025, the expected buying price for CEA will be 71.25 yuan/ton, while the selling price is expected to be 76.04 yuan/ton, with a midpoint of 73.65 yuan/ton [2] - As of July, the national carbon market has cumulatively traded 6.811 billion tons, with a total transaction value of 46.823 billion yuan [2] - The carbon market is set to expand in 2025 to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with new trading methods introduced [2] Group 3 - The Chairman of the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange stated that efforts will continue to enhance the development and improvement of the national carbon emission trading market mechanisms [3]

Group 1 - The carbon price index released by Fudan University indicates a comprehensive increase in national carbon market prices in July, with expected buying price for carbon emission allowances at 70.67 yuan/ton and selling price at 76.67 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.67 yuan/ton [1] - The buying price index increased by 3.37% to 176.66, while the selling price index rose by 2.52% to 172.98, and the midpoint price index saw a 2.93% increase to 174.73 [1] - The average closing price for carbon allowances in June was 71.04 yuan/ton, up approximately 1.6% from May's average of 69.90 yuan/ton, with a significant increase of over 12% from the beginning to the end of June [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange announced the implementation of a one-way bidding trading method for the national carbon emission trading system, which can adopt either uniform price or bid price transaction models [2] - The minimum bid quantity for sellers in the one-way bidding process is set at no less than 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, with sellers allowed to set a base price based on the previous trading day's closing price or a 10% discount [2] - Buyers are restricted to a maximum bid price that does not exceed 10% above the previous trading day's closing price for the designated annual carbon emission allowances [2]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for May 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) at 78.37 CNY/ton and 82.66 CNY/ton respectively, with a midpoint of 80.52 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index decreased by 7.70%, the sell price index decreased by 7.32%, and the midpoint price index decreased by 7.51% [1] Group 2 - The research center provided price expectations for green certificates (GEC) for 2024 and 2025, with the price for centralized projects in May 2025 expected to be 5.20 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The price for distributed projects in May 2025 is expected to be 4.87 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation, it is expected to be 4.48 CNY/unit, indicating an overall increase in green certificate prices [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration announced the launch of the green certificate cancellation function, enhancing the transparency and regulation of the green power consumption management system [3] - In April, the average closing price of CEA was 82.26 CNY/ton, down 6.42% from March, while the average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased significantly to 23.31 million tons, nearly doubling from March [3]