2月28日，复旦大学可持续发展研究中心(以下简称"研究中心")公布了2026年3月复旦碳价指数结果。此 次公布了2026年3月全国碳排放配额(简称CEA)价格指数、2026年12月全国CEA价格指数、2026年3月全 国CCER价格指数以及2026年3月中国绿色电力证书GEC价格指数。 2月全国碳市场价稳量缩，全球主要碳市场成交量整体下跌 在发布环节，研究中心总结了2月全国碳市场的运行情况：第一，价格方面，本月CEA的日均收盘价为 79.57元/吨，相较于1月的日均收盘价77.76元/吨上涨约2.33%。本月碳价整体呈现高位窄幅震荡的特 征，节前市场在76至81元/吨之间波动，2月9日曾单日上涨5.81%至80.56元/吨，显示部分企业在节前仍 有配额调整需求；节后恢复交易后价格稳定在81元/吨附近，未出现大幅波动。 第二，成交量方面，受春节假期影响，本月碳配额日均成交量为24.57万吨，相较1月的54.68万吨大幅缩 水约55%。尽管整体成交规模明显收缩，月内仍出现单日放量情形，如2月6日和9日成交量均超过53万 吨，反映节前部分企业仍在进行配额调整或策略性布局。整体来看，2月市场呈现"价稳量缩"的节日特 ...

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for February 2026, indicating expected buy and sell prices for carbon emission allowances and certified voluntary emission reductions [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowances (CEA) - The expected buy price for CEA in February 2026 is 72.47 CNY/ton, while the sell price is projected at 83.69 CNY/ton, with a midpoint price of 78.09 CNY/ton [1]. - The buy price index for CEA is 181.18, reflecting a 9.59% increase, and the sell price index is 188.83, showing a 12.88% rise, with the midpoint price index at 185.22, up by 11.35% [1]. Certified Voluntary Emission Reductions (CCER) - The expected buy price for CCER in February 2026 is 71.80 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.80 CNY/ton and a midpoint price of 77.80 CNY/ton [1]. - The buy price index for CCER is 180.49, up by 8.13%, while the sell price index is 201.59, increasing by 7.99%, and the midpoint price index is 191.27, reflecting an 8.06% rise [1]. Green Electricity Certificates (GEC) - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 7.38 CNY/unit, with a price index of 134.18; for distributed projects, the price is 7.05 CNY/unit and a price index of 143.04; and for biomass power generation, the price is 7.04 CNY/unit with a price index of 136.43 [2]. - All three categories of green certificates have seen price increases compared to January 2026, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the highest increase of 53% [2]. Market Performance - In January, the average closing price for CEA was 77.54 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 22.55% compared to December 2025 [3]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in January was 62.97 million tons, a decrease of nearly 70% from December, indicating reduced market activity following compliance deadlines [3]. - Globally, carbon markets experienced a decline in trading volumes, with notable drops in the UK and South Korea, while prices remained relatively stable across most markets [3].

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for January 2026, indicating a buy price expectation of 66.13 CNY/ton and a sell price expectation of 74.14 CNY/ton for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) [1] - The expected buy price for CEA in December 2026 is projected to be 70.32 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 85.36 CNY/ton, reflecting an upward trend in carbon pricing [1] - The buy price index for January 2026 is 165.33, while the sell price index is 167.28, indicating a stable market outlook [1] Group 2 - The research center reported that the price of green certificates for centralized projects, distributed projects, and biomass power generation in 2025 is expected to rise, with centralized project certificates priced at 5.93 CNY/unit, an increase of over 25% [2] - The price index for distributed project green certificates is 113.83, while biomass power generation certificates are priced at 4.6 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase across all categories [2] - The price ranking from highest to lowest remains centralized project certificates, distributed project certificates, and biomass power generation certificates [2] Group 3 - In December, the average closing price of CEA was 61.83 CNY/ton, a notable increase of approximately 3.27% compared to November's average closing price of 59.87 CNY/ton [3] - The trading volume for carbon allowances in December averaged 201.28 million tons, a decrease of 15.7% from November's 238.77 million tons, yet the market remained active with significant trading days [3] - The highest single-day trading volume was recorded on December 23, reaching 357.39 million tons, indicating robust market activity despite the overall decline in average volume [3]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index results for January 2026, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Summary - The expected buy price for CEA in January 2026 is 66.13 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 74.14 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 70.13 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 165.33, and the sell price index is 167.28, with a midpoint index of 166.34 [2] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 70.32 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 85.36 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint of 77.84 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 131.56, and the sell price index is 146.52, with a midpoint index of 139.36 [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in January 2026 is 66.40 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 77.60 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 72.00 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 12.54% to 166.92, and the sell price index increased by 11.81% to 186.67, with a midpoint index increase of 12.15% to 177.01 [2] GEC Price Index Summary - The price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 production is expected to be 5.93 CNY/unit, with a price index of 107.82. For distributed projects, the price is 5.61 CNY/unit (index 113.83), and for biomass power generation, the price is 4.6 CNY/unit (index 89.15). All three categories saw price increases exceeding 25%, with centralized projects showing the highest increase [3] National Carbon Market Activity - In December, the average closing price for CEA was 61.83 CNY/ton, up approximately 3.27% from November's average of 59.87 CNY/ton. The carbon price showed a trend of stabilization followed by a significant rise, reaching above 70 CNY/ton after eight consecutive days of increases [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in December was 201.28 million tons, down 15.7% from November's 238.77 million tons. Despite the decrease, the market remained active, with half of the trading days exceeding 2 million tons, peaking at 357.39 million tons on December 23 [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market in December showed varied trends, with the EU and Korean markets experiencing a recovery, while the UK market saw a significant decline. The EU's average daily trading volume increased by 2.19%, while the UK's dropped by 90.39% [5] - The EU carbon market's price rose from 96.24 USD/ton to 101.36 USD/ton, a cumulative increase of 5.31%. The UK market's price increased from 75.01 USD/ton to 87.42 USD/ton, a cumulative increase of 16.55%. In contrast, the Korean market's price fell from 7.35 USD/ton to 6.90 USD/ton, a cumulative decrease of 6.12% [6]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for December 2025, including the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price index, the national voluntary emission reduction (CCER) price index, and the Chinese Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] Carbon Emission Allowance and CCER Price Trends - The expected buying price for the CEA in December 2025 is 53.45 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 61.65 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 57.55 CNY/ton; the buying price index is 100.00, and the selling price index is 105.82, with a midpoint price index of 103.03 [2] - The expected buying price for CCER is 59.00 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 69.40 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 64.20 CNY/ton; the buying price index is 148.32 (down 1.12%), the selling price index is 166.95 (up 1.80%), and the midpoint price index is 157.84 (up 0.44%) [2] Green Certificate Price Index Trends - The expected price for the 2024 produced centralized project green certificates is 2.89 CNY/unit, with a price index of 58.38; for distributed projects, the price is 2.6 CNY/unit (index 49.73); and for biomass power generation, the price is 1.48 CNY/unit (index 32.96) [4] - The expected price for the 2025 produced centralized project green certificates is 4.31 CNY/unit (index 78.36); for distributed projects, the price is 4.39 CNY/unit (index 89.07); and for biomass power generation, the price is 3.53 CNY/unit (index 68.41) [4] - Price trends for green certificates show divergence, with distributed and biomass project certificates increasing in price for 2024, while centralized project certificates decreased; for 2025, centralized and distributed project certificates increased, while biomass project certificates decreased [4] Carbon Market Activity in November - The average closing price for CEA in November was 59.87 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 11% compared to October's average of 53.94 CNY/ton; the price showed a notable rise and fall, peaking at 67.87 CNY/ton before dropping back below 60 CNY/ton [6] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in November was 236.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.38% from October's 244.49 million tons; nearly two-thirds of trading days saw volumes exceeding 2 million tons, with a peak of 420.29 million tons on November 11 [6] National Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking a significant step in expanding the carbon market; by 2027, additional industries such as chemicals, aviation, and paper will be included, covering approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [7] - Global carbon markets showed overall recovery in November, with the EU carbon market's average daily trading volume increasing by 52.21%, while the UK market rose by 16.73%; however, the Korean market experienced a decline of 32.53% [7] Global Carbon Market Price Trends - In November, the EU carbon market price decreased from 93.36 USD/ton to 92.93 USD/ton, a drop of 0.46%, while the average daily price increased by 2.46%; the UK market price fell from 76.19 USD/ton to 75.81 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.50%, with a daily average increase of 1.64% [8] - The Korean carbon market price dropped from 7.28 USD/ton to 7.07 USD/ton, a decline of 2.80%, with a daily average price decrease of 0.75%; the New Zealand market price fell from 33.16 USD/ton to 32.43 USD/ton, a decrease of 2.18%, while the daily average price increased by 0.61% [8]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for November 2025, indicating a significant decline in carbon emission allowance prices and green certificate prices [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Prices - The expected buy price for the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in November 2025 is 47.59 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 55.42 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 yuan/ton. The buy price index decreased by 14.08%, and the sell price index decreased by 8.59% [1]. - For December 2025, the expected buy price is 55.63 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 65.35 yuan/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 60.50 yuan/ton [1]. Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.24 yuan/unit, with a price index of 77.09. For distributed projects, the price is 3.65 yuan/unit (index 74.06), and for biomass power generation, it is 3.81 yuan/unit (index 73.84) [2]. - All green certificate prices showed a decline compared to October 2025, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the largest drop [2]. Market Performance Overview - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 yuan/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 yuan/ton. The carbon price exhibited a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [2]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances was 1.7214 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 1.4864 million tons, indicating active market trading as the compliance period approaches [2]. Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, although the Korean carbon market experienced a slight decline. The price trends varied across major global carbon markets, with mixed performance in trading prices [3].

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center has released the carbon price index results for October 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, CCER prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] Carbon Emission Allowance Prices - The expected buy price for the national CEA in October 2025 is 55.39 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 60.63 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 58.00 CNY/ton; the buy price index decreased by 19.09% to 138.48, while the sell price index fell by 16.23% to 136.80, and the midpoint price index dropped by 17.64% to 137.57 [2] - For December 2025, the expected buy price for the national CEA is 62.10 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 70.45 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 66.28 CNY/ton; the buy price index is 116.18 and the sell price index is 120.92 [2] CCER Prices - The expected buy price for the CCER in October 2025 is 69.00 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.83 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 72.92 CNY/ton; the buy price index decreased by 7.75% to 173.45, while the sell price index fell by 9.29% to 184.82, and the midpoint price index dropped by 8.57% to 179.27 [2] Green Electricity Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 5.45 CNY/unit, with a price index of 99.09; for distributed projects, the price is 5.20 CNY/unit with a price index of 105.51; and for biomass power generation, the price is 5.55 CNY/unit with a price index of 107.56 [3] - Compared to September 2025, the prices for most green certificates have adjusted downwards, except for the centralized project green certificates from 2024 [3] Market Performance - In September, the average closing price for CEA was 62.94 CNY/ton, a significant decrease of 11.5% from August's average of 71.12 CNY/ton; the carbon price showed a downward trend, dropping from 69.41 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 59.16 CNY/ton by the end [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in September was 136.78 million tons, an increase of approximately 90% compared to August's 71.95 million tons, indicating heightened market activity [4] - The peak trading volume occurred on September 26, reaching 318.29 million tons, reflecting increased trading enthusiasm as the compliance period approached [4]

Group 1 - The national carbon market closed at 72.43 yuan/ton on August 1, showing a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous day, and a decline of 3.39% from the end of June [1] - In July, the total trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 11.6642 million tons, representing a significant decrease of 26.57% month-on-month, with the average daily trading volume dropping by 35.75% compared to June [1] - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center noted that the carbon price fluctuated downwards in July, narrowing the price range from 74.28 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 72.33 yuan/ton by the end [1] Group 2 - The Fudan Carbon Price Index forecasts that by August 2025, the expected buying price for CEA will be 71.25 yuan/ton, while the selling price is expected to be 76.04 yuan/ton, with a midpoint of 73.65 yuan/ton [2] - As of July, the national carbon market has cumulatively traded 6.811 billion tons, with a total transaction value of 46.823 billion yuan [2] - The carbon market is set to expand in 2025 to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with new trading methods introduced [2] Group 3 - The Chairman of the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange stated that efforts will continue to enhance the development and improvement of the national carbon emission trading market mechanisms [3]

Group 1 - The carbon price index released by Fudan University indicates a comprehensive increase in national carbon market prices in July, with expected buying price for carbon emission allowances at 70.67 yuan/ton and selling price at 76.67 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.67 yuan/ton [1] - The buying price index increased by 3.37% to 176.66, while the selling price index rose by 2.52% to 172.98, and the midpoint price index saw a 2.93% increase to 174.73 [1] - The average closing price for carbon allowances in June was 71.04 yuan/ton, up approximately 1.6% from May's average of 69.90 yuan/ton, with a significant increase of over 12% from the beginning to the end of June [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange announced the implementation of a one-way bidding trading method for the national carbon emission trading system, which can adopt either uniform price or bid price transaction models [2] - The minimum bid quantity for sellers in the one-way bidding process is set at no less than 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, with sellers allowed to set a base price based on the previous trading day's closing price or a 10% discount [2] - Buyers are restricted to a maximum bid price that does not exceed 10% above the previous trading day's closing price for the designated annual carbon emission allowances [2]

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for May 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) at 78.37 CNY/ton and 82.66 CNY/ton respectively, with a midpoint of 80.52 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index decreased by 7.70%, the sell price index decreased by 7.32%, and the midpoint price index decreased by 7.51% [1] Group 2 - The research center provided price expectations for green certificates (GEC) for 2024 and 2025, with the price for centralized projects in May 2025 expected to be 5.20 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The price for distributed projects in May 2025 is expected to be 4.87 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation, it is expected to be 4.48 CNY/unit, indicating an overall increase in green certificate prices [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration announced the launch of the green certificate cancellation function, enhancing the transparency and regulation of the green power consumption management system [3] - In April, the average closing price of CEA was 82.26 CNY/ton, down 6.42% from March, while the average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased significantly to 23.31 million tons, nearly doubling from March [3]