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3月基金配置展望:关注自由现金流指数
Ping An Securities· 2026-03-03 07:55
证券研究报告 关注自由现金流指数 ——3月基金配置展望 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号:S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号:S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524120003 高 越 一般从业资格编号:S1060124070014 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号:S1060124030069 研究助理 2026年3月3日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 基金配置建议:关注自由现金流指数 2 2月回顾:A股、美股市场涨跌分化;美债、国债利率下行;商品价格先下后上,原油价格上涨,黄金上涨;美元指数上行,人民币升值。海外 政策和地缘环境扰动、AI替代恐慌等因素共同作用下,权益市场涨跌分化。全球避险情绪升温,美债、国债利率下行。 3月展望:资产配置的逻辑。股债轮动模型显示,2026年1月私人部门融资增速、通胀因子下行,基本面复苏信号信号有所波动。2月市场动量因 子收正,综合基本面与动量信号的择时模型继续看多权益资产。本月基于7个情绪指标构建的A股情绪指数显示,看多未来一个月权益市场表现 的情绪指标有所回落,市场情绪指数跌出乐观区间。基于宏观综合指标的港股择时策略显示看多 ...
低利率高波动时代,攻守兼备的“固收+”基金将迎新一轮配置机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 03:29
Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks marks a shift towards a low-interest-rate environment, prompting investors to reconsider traditional savings and explore "fixed income +" strategies in public funds as a viable investment option [1][11]. Group 1: "Fixed Income +" Fund Characteristics - "Fixed Income +" is not an official fund type but a strategy that combines low-volatility fixed income assets with equities and other instruments to enhance returns [1]. - The strategy typically includes mixed bond funds, with equity investments capped at 30% to qualify as "fixed income +" products [2]. - The average annualized return of "fixed income +" funds over the past five years is 16.35%, outperforming both pure bond funds and mixed equity funds [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of May 28, "fixed income +" funds have an average annualized volatility of 4.55% and a maximum drawdown of -8.61%, which is lower than that of mixed equity funds [4]. - Among 1,253 "fixed income +" funds, 64.53% reported positive returns in the first quarter of 2025 [1][5]. Group 3: Growth Phases of "Fixed Income +" Funds - The first rapid growth phase occurred from 2014 to 2016, driven by a favorable market environment and significant liquidity, leading to a doubling of "fixed income +" fund numbers [8]. - The second growth phase from 2019 to 2021 was fueled by regulatory changes and a strong equity market, resulting in a 134.41% increase in the number of "fixed income +" funds [9]. Group 4: Current Market Opportunities - The current market conditions, characterized by low deposit rates and increased volatility, present a favorable environment for "fixed income +" strategies, similar to previous growth phases [11]. - Analysts suggest that the focus on diversified asset allocation within "fixed income +" strategies can enhance return potential amid uncertain economic conditions [11]. Group 5: Recommended "Fixed Income +" Products - A selection of 103 "fixed income +" products with above-average performance metrics has been identified for potential investment, including several mixed bond funds [12][14]. - The top-performing mixed bond funds over the past five years include those managed by Tianhong Fund, Dongfanghong Asset Management, and others, showcasing strong returns and low volatility [14][16].