固收+扩容下的资金面分析和择时思路 - 解码转债超额收益 之源 20260226 摘要 机构投资者已占据可转债市场主导地位，五类主要机构（公募基金、企 业年金、保险机构、私募基金、券商资管与自营）合计持仓占比已超过 80%，而一般机构与自然人占比则持续下降，主要驱动力来自固收+策 略扩容和转债市场的老龄化。 股票市场预期直接影响机构配置转债的斜率。乐观的市场预期会加速机 构增持转债，反之则可能导致减持。历史数据显示，2022 年初、2023 年末以及 2025 年二季度，市场悲观情绪均导致机构转债持仓占比下降。 机构化和股性化趋势改变了转债投资框架，传统双低策略的有效性降低， 基本面驱动的个券选择权重上升。市场呈现结构化特征，不同行业转债 的正股弹性与基本面差异显著，导致跨行业的策略一致性下降。 在结构性市场中，胜率思维比赔率思维更重要。高溢价股性转债有时仍 具备较高的跟涨和赔率，因为其对正股的跟涨充分，且上涨过程验证了 正股资质的改善，从而支撑溢价率维持在高位。 2025 年，公募基金、券商、私募等机构在转债市场的占比上升，而年 金与保险等偏绝对收益资金的直投份额下降。保险资金倾向于在股票市 场回落、转债估 ...

编者按 丙午马年，资本市场是否会迎来奔腾之势？面对利率下行、存款"搬家"的宏观背景，以及A股震荡、商 品波动的复杂局面，投资者如何布局？"策马点金"栏目邀请友山基金首席投资官金焰、上海旭诺资产管 理有限公司投资经理户涛、上海大墉资产管理有限公司创始人兼基金经理鲍瑞海，从宏观配置、衍生工 具、实物资产等不同维度，为投资者奉上马年财富管理的专业参考。 周期股与商品期货的"双重表达" 在利率持续走低的背景下，居民存款向资本市场转移已成为确定性趋势。 金焰介绍，2025年非银机构存款余额显著增加6.4万亿元，银行理财产品规模突破33万亿元，较2024年 年末增加3.3万亿元，其中97%以上为固收类产品。"在利率下行的背景下，单纯的固收类资产难以满足 投资者的收益需求，增配权益类资产来提升整体回报已成为必然选择。预计'固收+'策略将凭借稳健与 增强收益的特性，成为广大投资者资产配置的主流选择。"他说。 他进一步表示，"固收"部分以中短久期、高等级信用债为主，获取稳健票息收益，并充当"安全 垫"；"+"部分则通过可转债、ETF、精选个股以及CTA策略等工具实现收益增强。配置比例需严格依据 资金风险收益目标动态校准，控制在 ...

Group 1 - The total scale of fixed-term deposits maturing in 2026 is estimated to be around 50 trillion, with most maturing in the first two quarters of 2026 [2] - Current deposit interest rates are relatively low, mostly around 1% compared to 2021-2022, leading to a low risk appetite for deposit funds [2] - A few hundred billion to a trillion level of funds may flow into the stock market, which is beneficial but not significantly large [3] Group 2 - Investment in financial products or funds is primarily focused on "fixed income +" strategies, with bonds as the main component and stocks as a supplementary part [4] - The stock portion of these strategies tends to focus on low volatility and low dividend stocks, which could benefit dividend indices [4] - The market size for "fixed income +" strategies is expected to grow rapidly in 2026 [4]

导语 2025年权益市场火热，有些主要宽基市场指数涨超50%，部分主题指数更是涨超100%，但投资者却对求稳收益的追求愈发强烈，固收+基金凭借较稳的回 撤控制与增强收益弹性扩容速度远超权益基金。 截至2025年末，固收+基金规模已达2.48万亿元，同比增速为46.69%，体现出居民及机构在低利率与权益市场波动加大环境下对"求稳收益+低波动"资产 的配置需求。 当下为什么要重视固收+基金？ 1、低利率背景下，传统理财收益走低 当前低利率的市场环境下，无论是居民青睐的定期存款，还是货币基金、短债基金，其收益率均一再走低，已难以满足投资者对资产求稳增值的投资需 求。对于机构投资者而言，纯债基金也因票息变薄和债市波动加剧，难以完成投资目标。 2、固收+策略在当前市场优势明显 一般来说，固收+策略是通过以债券资产作为底仓，再通过精选股票等权益资产做增强，两者结合构建了风险收益比较优的投资组合。所以，相较于纯债 基金，它具备更高的收益弹性；而相较于纯股票基金，它风险和波动较低，持有体验较好。 3、市场需求印证它契合当下行情 数据显示，近年来固收+基金的规模增速快于权益基金，表明在低利率、市场波动的环境下，很多投资者对于这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [4][41]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management sector is experiencing a slight increase in scale, with a focus on loan growth at the beginning of the year, leading to a stable overall scale in January [1]. - The industry is characterized by a significant "Matthew Effect," where leading wealth management companies dominate the market, while smaller firms are still in the early stages of development [1][10]. - The transition from pure fixed income to "fixed income plus" and multi-asset strategies is a gradual but firm trend in the industry, with mixed-asset products becoming the main battlefield for this transformation [1][2]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management Product Layout - As of the end of 2025, there are 191 institutions with active wealth management products, with wealth management companies holding 92.25% of the total market scale [10]. - The mixed-asset and equity products are primarily concentrated among large banks and leading joint-stock banks, reflecting a strategic focus on these areas [10]. Performance Metrics - In January 2026, the weighted average annualized yield of bank wealth management products rose to 3.62%, an increase of 181 basis points from the previous month [11]. - The initial fundraising scale for newly issued products in January was 423.8 billion, with most being fixed-income products [20]. Product Development Strategy - Wealth management subsidiaries are advised to prioritize mixed-asset products to build experience in equity and derivatives management before cautiously introducing pure equity products [2]. - Leading firms like Agricultural Bank Wealth Management and Everbright Wealth Management have established scale advantages in mixed-asset products, leveraging their channel and brand strengths [2]. Market Outlook - The investment strategy for 2026 should shift from focusing on yield elasticity to ensuring yield certainty, emphasizing risk budget management and the use of innovative tools and strategies [3]. - The report suggests increasing the development and application of structured products linked to broad or industry indices to meet the demand for stable returns in a volatile market [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [4][41]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management sector is experiencing a low overall allocation in multi-asset products, with significant individual differences and early-stage development characteristics [1]. - The industry is transitioning from pure fixed income to "fixed income plus" and multi-asset strategies, with mixed products currently being the main battleground for this transformation [2]. - In January 2026, the average annualized yield for bank wealth management products increased to 3.62%, reflecting a recovery of 181 basis points month-on-month [11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In January, the wealth management product scale remained stable, with a total scale of 31.6 trillion yuan, showing little month-on-month change [13]. - The mixed product scale reached 6,383.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than the equity product scale of 271.5 billion yuan, indicating a preference for mixed strategies [12]. Product Performance - The newly issued products in January had an initial fundraising scale of 4,238 billion yuan, primarily consisting of fixed income products, with the performance benchmark remaining stable at 2.33% [20]. - Most of the closed-end bank wealth management products that matured in January met their performance benchmarks, demonstrating a strong performance in the sector [29]. Strategic Development - Wealth management subsidiaries are focusing on mixed products first, gradually building a multi-asset allocation framework before introducing pure equity products [2]. - Leading wealth management institutions are leveraging their channel and brand advantages to strengthen mixed products as core tools for wealth management clients [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation and challenges in the capital market, highlighting the need for professional investment research to optimize asset allocation, particularly in the context of the evolving public fund industry in China [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The public fund industry is experiencing intense competition, prompting smaller fund companies to define their positioning and develop differentiated strategies to break through [2][3] - The active investment approach is being prioritized, with a focus on three core product lines: active equity investment, "fixed income plus" products, and index enhancement [5][11] - The industry is shifting from a focus on scale expansion to high-quality development, with a need for fund managers to adapt to changing market dynamics [1][2] Group 2: Company Strategies - The company aims to avoid chasing popular investment trends that lack competitive advantage, instead focusing on niche areas where it can build core competencies [6][10] - A pragmatic investment culture is being cultivated, emphasizing product quality and investment competitiveness while avoiding the pitfalls of blindly following market trends [6][8] - The management structure is designed to ensure clear responsibilities and efficient collaboration across departments to support strategic goals [7] Group 3: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers on understanding client needs and designing products that align with those needs, rather than pushing all products to clients [4][10] - The "fixed income plus" strategy is positioned as a solution that balances stability and potential returns, focusing on providing a good holding experience for investors [17][21] - The company emphasizes a systematic approach to investment, integrating macro and micro analysis to identify opportunities and manage risks effectively [18][22] Group 4: Market Outlook - The current market environment is characterized by low-risk returns, leading to a trend of wealth allocation towards standardized financial products [9][23] - The company maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the market, identifying structural investment opportunities in sectors like AI, advanced manufacturing, and high-dividend companies [23] - The focus on long-term asset allocation strategies is crucial, especially in light of increasing correlations among domestic assets, making international assets more appealing for diversification [16][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, focusing on the performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, the impact of deposit maturities on the stock market, and the valuation of dividend indices. Market Performance - The overall market experienced a decline, with small and mid-cap stocks falling more than large-cap stocks. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices dropped around 1.5%. However, Hong Kong stocks showed resilience, rebounding in the afternoon and closing higher [2][3]. - The A-share market has seen a 3.4% correction from its peak in this bull market, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has corrected by 4.2%. Since September 2024, both markets have risen by 50-60% [2][3][4]. Deposit Maturities and Market Impact - A significant amount of deposits, approximately 50 trillion yuan, is set to mature between late 2025 and early 2026, with most maturing in the first two quarters of 2026 [4][5][6]. - The current interest rates on deposits are lower than in previous years, leading to speculation about whether these funds will flow into the stock market. However, only a small portion is expected to enter equity assets due to the low-risk appetite of depositors [7][8][9]. Investment Strategies - It is suggested that only 5-10% of the maturing deposit funds may flow into stock markets, translating to several hundred billion to a trillion yuan potentially entering the market, which is seen as a positive but not overwhelmingly large impact [14][15]. - The article emphasizes that new funds and profits taken from the market should consider stable fixed-income strategies rather than aggressive stock investments, especially when the market is rated around 3 stars [21][22][23]. Dividend Indices Valuation - The article provides a valuation table for various dividend indices, highlighting their earnings yield, price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, and dividend yield. For instance, the Shanghai Dividend Index has an earnings yield of 9.79% and a P/E ratio of 10.21 [24][25]. - The valuation of dividend indices is crucial as they have been among the fastest-growing index funds in recent years, and the article encourages investors to explore these options [28][30].

受访公募机构表示，当前，居民资产配置持续向金融资产转移，"固收+"产品凭借其清晰的风险收益特 征，有望成为承接稳健类资金的重要载体，市场规模或进一步增长。 "固收+"基金规模达2.99万亿元，有望成低风险理财市场"压舱石" 随着天量存款到期、低利率环境延续，"固收+"基金规模和业绩迎来"双丰收"。 "固收+"产品规模快速增长 "固收+"产品规模持续扩张。中金公司研报数据显示，截至2025年末，全市场2292只"固收+"基金规模合 计达2.99万亿元（统计一级债基、二级债基、可转债、偏债混、低仓位灵活配置基金、偏债混合型 FOF），创历史新高；环比增长9%，较去年同期增长56%。从细分品类来看，2025年四季度，二级债基 大幅扩容，最新规模达1.55万亿元，环比增长19%。 进入2026年以来，基金公司继续加大力度布局"固收+"基金，包括汇添富、富国、易方达、国泰、摩根 等多家基金公司。 兴业基金固定收益投资部总经理助理腊博表示，"固收+"产品规模快速增长是多方面因素共同影响的结 果，低利率环境是重要的背景，较低的存款利率和债券收益率难以满足投资者对收益的诉求，经济结构 转型和政策支持使市场风险偏好显著提升。 ...

进入2026年以来，基金公司继续加大力度布局"固收+"基金，包括汇添富、富国、易方达、国泰、摩根 等多家基金公司。 兴业基金固定收益投资部总经理助理腊博表示，"固收+"产品规模快速增长是多方面因素共同影响的结 果，低利率环境是重要的背景，较低的存款利率和债券收益率难以满足投资者对收益的诉求，经济结构 转型和政策支持使市场风险偏好显著提升。 腊博认为，随着存款利率的吸引力下降，存款向"固收+"产品、保险产品、理财产品和权益类产品转化 的比例也会相应提升。而从产品布局的角度来看，基金公司布局不同风险梯度的"固收+"产品，可以更 好地契合投资者不同的风险收益偏好。 随着天量存款到期、低利率环境延续，"固收+"基金规模和业绩迎来"双丰收"。 受访公募机构表示，当前，居民资产配置持续向金融资产转移，"固收+"产品凭借其清晰的风险收益特 征，有望成为承接稳健类资金的重要载体，市场规模或进一步增长。 "固收+"产品规模快速增长 "固收+"产品规模持续扩张。中金公司（601995）研报数据显示，截至2025年末，全市场2292只"固收 +"基金规模合计达2.99万亿元（统计一级债基、二级债基、可转债、偏债混、低仓位灵活配置基 ...