记者从近日举行的2025第七届(CIBC)中国国际啤酒技术高峰论坛上了解到，区别于白酒、葡萄酒行业的 经营数据下滑，在结构性升级和风味创新的帮助下，2025年啤酒行业仍有望保持增长，但内部竞争逻辑 却已经发生剧变，在悦己消费的驱动下，啤酒最早发生了变化，高端化竞争正在进入新阶段。 啤酒行业逆势增长 年终盘点｜果味化、奶茶化、功能化，啤酒行业增长虽稳但竞争已入深水区 作者：栾立 12月中旬，北京迎来了今年首场小雪，30岁的李冰在家里和朋友摆起了火锅局，但区别于以往，今年桌 上的传统风味啤酒被各种花花绿绿的新包装和柠檬乌龙、佛手柑等新口味所占领，而这样的现象在2025 年正在变得普遍。 今年酒水行业的主旋律是深度调整，而啤酒是少数保持增长的品类。国家统计局数字显示1月-9月，国 内白酒行业和葡萄酒行业产量和销量都处于下滑状态，而啤酒是少数产销量保持增长的品类。在论坛 上，中国酒业协会啤酒分会秘书长元月表示，以去年四季度的数据做参照，预计2025年全年啤酒行业的 营收会继续保持个位数增长，利润保持双位数增长。 在过去几年中，啤酒行业通过高端化升级实现了快速增长，但今年上市整体增速普遍有所放缓。论坛上 多位与会者认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer achieved a net profit margin of 22.3% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, marking a recent high for the company [1] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 reached 45.8%, up by 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The increase in gross profit margin is attributed to the decline in raw material prices such as barley and glass bottles, leading to cost benefits, as well as an increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products [1] Market Demand and Product Strategy - There remains strong consumer demand for mid-to-high-end products that emphasize product quality and brand strength [1] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the expansion and upgrade of the beer price range of 8-12 yuan due to its strong product power and brand influence [1] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the improvement in profitability driven by structural upgrades and raw material cost benefits throughout 2025 [1] - The reasonable valuation level for the company is estimated at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 75.90 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer reported a total revenue of 20.49 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.90 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.63 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.0% increase [1] Revenue Analysis - The beer business saw a revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 2.2% and a slight decrease in price per ton by 0.3% [1] - The growth in sales volume was attributed to strong demand during the Spring Festival and low inventory levels at the beginning of the year, outperforming the industry average which saw a 0.3% decline in production from January to June [1] - The sales structure improved, with the main brand's sales increasing by 3.9%, accounting for 57.3% of total sales, and mid-to-high-end product sales rising by 5.1%, making up 42.1% of total sales [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 43.7%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in raw material costs, with the cost per ton of beer decreasing by 3.8% [2] - The company effectively controlled expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing minor changes [2] - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.1%, improving by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a steady enhancement in profitability [3] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to slow recovery in beverage market demand, with projected revenues of 32.85 billion, 33.61 billion, and 34.42 billion yuan respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are expected to be 4.75 billion, 5.13 billion, and 5.44 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [3] - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage in its base market, with comprehensive product coverage and leading brand strength, supported by systematic innovation to adapt to market changes [3]