文｜李思商业案例 2025年8月，「青岛啤酒博物馆」在它开张的第22年周年庆时刻达成游客总接待量破1500万人次的成 就。 按照它淡季50元/人、旺季60/人呢、各种持证半价的收费标准，这座由「青岛啤酒」于2003年投资2800 多万建成的博物馆，累计门票收入就已经至少7亿元打底。当然，平均每年小几千万的营收相比青岛啤 酒的主业收入而言，几乎可以忽略不计，却也能作为对这座博物馆影响力的印证。 作为核心展示成立百年的青岛啤酒的老厂房、老设备、中国啤酒工业史的特色博物馆，它是「第四批国 家一级博物馆」，还是「国家工业旅游示范基地」，是「全国博物馆海外影响力百强」，更在近期入选 了「国家发改委2024年度全国消费新场景典型案例」。 基本上，来青岛旅游，已经把文创消费玩出花的青岛啤酒博物馆已经成为了游客的必去网红打卡地之 一。 无论你喝不喝酒。 一个卖啤酒的，能够在啤酒之外的行业找到一块如此鲜活的消费与展现场景，青岛啤酒博物馆无疑是让 酒业同行们羡慕的存在。 尤其是在行业大环境不景气的情况下。 但问题是，青岛啤酒已经在过去很长一段时间里，一直都在博物馆、文创IP、剧本杀、联名品、价比飞 天茅台的超高端啤酒等领域，在一 ...

证券研究报告 食品饮料 | 非白酒 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券分析师 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 08 月 | 25 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 28.58 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 36.00/21.60 | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | | 92,718.58 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | | 92,718.58 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 43.72 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | 华润啤酒(00291.HK) 投资评级： 增持（首次） ——啤酒高端化有序推进 ...

白酒业务方面，25H1 白酒收入7.81 亿元，同比-33.7%，其中大单品摘要占白酒收入接近80%，政策趋 严使得商务、高端宴席等明显受损，对销售拖累明显。 机构：东吴证券 研究员：苏铖/郭晓东 投资要点 事件：华润啤酒公告2025 年中报，25H1 实现营收239.42 亿元，同比+0.8%，归母净利润57.89 亿元，同 比+23.0%，不计特别项目的EBIT 为71.05 亿元，同比+11.3%，不计特别项目的EBITDA 为83.36 亿元， 同比+10.7%。公司派发中期股息0.464 元/股，同比+24.4%，中期派息率保持26%。 啤酒韧性升级，白酒主动调整。啤酒业务方面，25H1 啤酒收入231.61亿元，同比+2.6%，量价拆分来 看，25H1 销量648.7 万吨，同比+2.2%，吨价3570 元/吨，同比+0.4%。上半年面临消费弱β，公司积极 拥抱新消费趋势，一方面传统大单品仍韧性增长，次高档及以上销量增速中至高单位数，其中喜力销量 增长超20%，老雪销量增长超70%，红爵销量增长超100%；另一方面，开发德式小麦啤酒、茶啤、果 啤、青稞啤酒等特色产品，满足个性化和差异化消费需求，亦 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is driven by premiumization, cost advantages, and effective management strategies, with a notable increase in gross profit margin [3][4] - The beer segment shows resilience with significant sales growth in premium products, while the liquor segment is undergoing adjustments due to regulatory impacts [4][10] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 38,932 million, with a slight increase to 39,155 million in 2025, and further growth expected in subsequent years [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 5,153 million in 2023 to 6,017 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 26.97% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to increase from 1.59 in 2023 to 1.85 in 2025, with a corresponding decrease in P/E ratio from 16.38 to 14.02 [1] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 239.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a net profit of 57.89 billion, up 23.0% [10] - The beer revenue for the same period was 231.61 billion, reflecting a 2.6% increase, with sales volume reaching 648.7 thousand tons, a 2.2% rise [10] - Premium products like Heineken and Snow Beer saw sales growth exceeding 20% and 70% respectively, indicating strong market demand [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][17]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 0.8% and 23.0% year-on-year, reaching RMB 239.4 billion and RMB 57.9 billion respectively [6][15]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the upgrade of the beer business structure, the release of raw material cost benefits, and effective cost control under the "Three Precision" strategy [6]. - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 35.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of HKD 28.28 [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 38,932 million in 2023, RMB 38,635 million in 2024, and estimated growth to RMB 39,239 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% [5][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,153 million in 2023 to RMB 5,807 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [5][9]. - The beer business showed a revenue increase of 2.6% to RMB 231.6 billion, driven by sales volume growth of 2.2% and a slight price increase of 0.4% [6][8]. Business Segment Analysis - The beer segment's gross margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 48.3%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 3.4 percentage points to 35.1% [6][8]. - The white liquor segment faced challenges, with a significant revenue decline of 33.7% to RMB 7.8 billion, attributed to ongoing difficulties in the business banquet scene [6][8]. - The company plans to focus on developing mass-market and light bottle liquor products to reshape its pricing structure and expand coverage in the mid-to-low-end liquor market [6]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted, with revenue estimates reduced by 1-5%, while EBITDA and net profit margins are expected to improve by 0.9-1.8 and 0-1.5 percentage points respectively [6][9].

| 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00291 | 年潤啤酒 | (0) | 28.880 | 2.12% | | 00168 | 青岛啤酒股份 | | 51.800 1.77% | | | 00236 | 香港生力啤 | | | 1.210 1.68% | | 01876 | 百威亚太 | | 8.550 | 0.47% | 港股啤酒股逆势上涨，其中，昨日涨超6%的华润啤酒继续上涨2.12%，青岛啤酒股份、香港生力啤涨近 2%，百威亚太跟涨。 中国酒业协会数据显示，2024年我国精酿啤酒市场规模已突破800亿元大关，同比增幅超30%。其中， 融入中式创新元素的产品占比从5%跃升至18%，成为拉动行业增长的重要引擎。(格隆汇) 消息上，华润啤酒昨日午间公告，2025年上半年营业额239.42亿元人民币(下同)，按年升0.8%。纯利 57.89亿元创新高，按年升23%；每股盈利1.78元。野村发表研究报告指，华润啤酒上半年整体业绩表现 稳健，收入按年增1%；销售升2.2%；均价升0.4%，显示在润啤的高端化策略下，啤酒业务市 ...

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC's performance in the first half of the year shows a significant decline, with net profit down 24.4%, sales down 6.1%, and revenue down 5.6% [1][2] - The company faces intense competition in the high-end beer market from local brands like China Resources Beer, Tsingtao Beer, and Yanjing Beer, which have gained market share [1][2][5] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Budweiser APAC reported revenue of $3.136 billion, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of $409 million, down 24.4% [1][2] - Total sales volume reached 4.363 billion liters, reflecting a 6.1% decline compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company's net profit has been declining for three consecutive years, with figures of $913 million, $852 million, and $726 million projected for 2022-2024, representing year-on-year declines of 3.89%, 6.7%, and 14.8% respectively [2] Market Challenges - Budweiser APAC's reliance on on-premise channels like restaurants and nightclubs has been detrimental, as these channels face increasing competition [3][4] - The company's market share in the high-end beer segment has dropped from approximately 50% to 42% [4] - The shift in consumer preferences towards non-on-premise channels has further complicated Budweiser's market position [7] Strategic Adjustments - The newly appointed CEO, Cheng Yanjun, is focusing on strategic transformation, emphasizing channel transformation, product adjustment, and marketing innovation [6] - Budweiser APAC is shifting its product strategy to target the mid-range market, particularly the 8-10 yuan price segment, which has seen increased competition from other major brands [6][7] - The company aims to enhance its non-on-premise channel presence, which currently accounts for about 50% of its business in China, compared to the industry average of 60% [7] Future Outlook - The beer industry is entering a phase of moderate growth, and Budweiser APAC must adapt to maintain its competitive edge [3][4] - Analysts suggest that while Budweiser's strategy to penetrate the mid-range market is late, there are still opportunities for growth if the company can effectively build brand recognition and channel presence [6][7]

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a decline in net profit by 24.4%, a 6.1% drop in sales volume, and a 5.6% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [1][3] - The company faces pressure from both traditional dining and nightlife channels and the rise of local brands like China Resources Beer and Tsingtao Brewery in the high-end market [1][4] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Budweiser APAC's revenue was $3.136 billion, down 5.6% year-on-year, with net profit at $409 million, a 24.4% decrease, and total sales volume at 4.363 billion liters, down 6.1% [3][4] - The company's net profit has been on a downward trend for three consecutive years, with figures of $913 million, $852 million, and $726 million from 2022 to 2024, reflecting declines of 3.89%, 6.7%, and 14.8% respectively [3][4] Market Challenges - Budweiser APAC's sales in the Chinese market decreased by 8.2%, with revenue per hundred liters dropping by 9.5% and overall revenue down by 6.4% in the second quarter due to weak business layout and channel performance [4][5] - The company is experiencing increased competition in the high-end market, with its market share dropping from approximately 50% to 42% in 2024 [6][7] Strategic Adjustments - The CEO has initiated a strategic transformation focusing on channel restructuring, product adjustments, and marketing innovation to address the challenges faced in the Chinese market [7][8] - Budweiser APAC is shifting its product strategy to target the mid-range market, particularly in the 8-10 yuan price segment, which has seen increased competition from other major brands [7][8] Channel Strategy - Non-drinking channels are becoming a key focus, with Budweiser APAC's non-drinking channel business accounting for about 50% of its operations in China, compared to the industry average of 60% [8] - The non-drinking channel's share of the Chinese beer market reached 52% in 2024 and expanded to approximately 60% in the first half of 2025, driven by a shift in consumer behavior towards home consumption and instant retail [8]

Summary of Beer Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The beer industry is characterized as a mature fast-moving consumer goods sector with high industrialization and seasonal sales patterns, where Q2 and Q3 account for approximately 60% of annual sales [1][2] - The cost structure is primarily driven by upstream packaging materials (45%-50%) and brewing raw materials (approximately 20%, mainly imported barley) [1][4] - The industry has a gross margin of about 40% and a net margin exceeding 10%, which is lower than other alcoholic beverages like liquor [1][5] Key Insights - The Chinese beer market has undergone rapid development from 1979 to 1995, followed by two waves of mergers and acquisitions from 1996 to 2013, leading to increased industry concentration [1][6][7] - As of 2017, the top five companies (CR5) held over 70% market share, indicating a regional oligopoly [1][9] - Since 2018, the industry has shifted towards structural upgrades, with stable total production and a clear trend towards premiumization [1][10] Growth Potential - China's retail beer prices are lower than the global average, and the proportion of mid-to-high-end beer sales is below that of developed countries, indicating significant potential for premiumization [3][12] - The high-end market is expected to grow, supported by economic growth and changing consumer habits, with a notable trend towards diversified and premium products [3][11][13] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the beer market is stable, with leading companies recognizing the importance of premiumization and enhancing operational capabilities [3][9] - Companies are exploring diversification strategies, such as acquisitions in other beverage sectors and launching new product lines [3][14][15] Cost Structure and Pricing - The cost structure is heavily influenced by packaging and raw materials, with a 90% reliance on imported barley [4] - Historical data shows that beer prices typically lag behind cost increases, which can affect profitability [4] Future Outlook - The beer industry is expected to maintain stable sales volumes, with ongoing premiumization trends and the introduction of new product categories [11] - The average price per ton for leading companies has seen a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3% to 5% from 2018 to 2023 [11] - The high-end segment, particularly in the 8-10 RMB price range, is leading the structural upgrade, while the ultra-premium segment requires time for brand development [16] Strategic Initiatives - Leading companies are leveraging their market share and brand recognition to expand into new regions and enhance their product offerings [17][18] - The focus on high-end products not only improves profitability but also broadens the sales reach of these companies [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer is experiencing its first-ever decline in both revenue and net profit in its mid-year performance, indicating significant challenges in the competitive beer market [3][5][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chongqing Beer reported revenue of 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [3][5]. - This marks the first time in the company's history since its listing in 1997 that both revenue and net profit have declined simultaneously in a mid-year report [5][6]. - For the full year of 2024, the company also saw declines in revenue and net profit, with figures of 14.645 billion yuan and 1.115 billion yuan, respectively, representing decreases of 1.15% and 16.61% year-on-year [5][6]. Product Performance - High-end product revenue reached 5.625 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing only a marginal increase of 0.04%, while mid-range product revenue declined [4][7]. - The only segment showing growth was the economy product line, which saw a revenue increase of 5.39% to 196 million yuan [4][7]. Marketing and Sales Strategy - The company has invested heavily in marketing, hiring multiple celebrity endorsements, including Wu Lei and Fan Chengcheng, with sales expenses amounting to 1.333 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4][8]. - Despite these efforts, sales in the southern market, one of its core regions, fell by 1.47% to 2.478 billion yuan, indicating challenges in driving sales growth [9][10]. R&D and Future Outlook - Research and development investment has significantly decreased, with only 5.7819 million yuan spent in the first half of 2025, a drop of 50.12% year-on-year [11]. - The company plans to invest 600 million yuan to enhance its subsidiary in Foshan, aiming to improve its market competitiveness in the southern region [10].