Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Tsingtao Brewery, with a target price of RMB 88.00 based on a current price of RMB 69.50 [2]. Core Insights - Tsingtao Brewery's profitability continues to improve, with H1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching RMB 20.491 billion and RMB 3.904 billion, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.11% and 7.21% year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 19.05% [3][11]. - The company has demonstrated resilience in sales volume, achieving 4.732 million kiloliters, which is a 2.3% increase, outperforming the industry average decline of 0.3% [11]. - The product mix is optimizing, with mid-to-high-end sales volumes accounting for 42.1% of total sales, indicating a clear growth pattern favoring premium products [3][12]. Revenue Analysis - The beer business revenue increased by 1.9% in H1 2025, with a slight decline in ton price of 0.3%. However, Q2 showed a positive trend in ton price, indicating price stabilization [4][12]. - Regional performance varied, with Shandong showing solid fundamentals and East China emerging as a new growth engine, achieving revenue growth of 9.94% [4][12]. Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin reached 43.7% in H1 2025, with a further increase to 45.84% in Q2, driven by lower unit costs due to falling raw material prices [5][13]. - The operating cash flow/net profit ratio stands at 123%, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60%, providing reliable returns in uncertain markets [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the strategic resolve of Tsingtao Brewery in adapting to industry changes, such as the rise of on-demand retail and craft beer diversification. The company is well-positioned to benefit from consumers' renewed preference for high-quality products [14]. - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 3.52, RMB 3.75, and RMB 3.95, respectively, with a maintained target price of RMB 88 based on a 25x PE multiple for 2025 [14].

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer demonstrated steady growth in the first half of 2025, benefiting from cost advantages and maintaining its leading position in the industry [1] Industry Summary - In the first half of 2025, the domestic beer industry saw a total production of 19.04 million tons, a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - Despite the overall industry stability, Qingdao Beer achieved a sales increase [1] Company Summary - In the first half of 2025, Qingdao Beer’s main brand achieved product sales of 2.713 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [1] - Sales of mid-to-high-end products reached 1.992 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1] - The classic series, Qingdao White Beer, high-end fresh 1L aluminum bottles, and ultra-high-end products all maintained steady growth in sales [1] - The company continues to strengthen its market position across all channels, with emerging channels leading the industry [1] - The instant retail business has experienced rapid growth in transaction volume for five consecutive years [1] - The company’s leading position in the industry remains solid, with a projected dividend yield of 3.52% for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady growth in performance, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first half of 2025 reaching 20.49 billion, 3.90 billion, and 3.63 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 2.11%, 7.21%, and 5.99% [4]. - The gross margin and net profit margin for the first half of 2025 were 43.7% and 19.05%, showing improvements of 2.09 and 0.91 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company has effectively controlled its expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios remaining stable [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 10.05 billion, 2.19 billion, and 2.03 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 1.28%, 7.32%, and 6.02% respectively [5]. - The company’s sales volume for the first half of 2025 was 4.732 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.20%, with an average price of 4,330 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.09% [5]. - The domestic beer industry saw a slight decline in production, but the company managed to grow its sales volume, particularly in mid-to-high-end products [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 32.94 billion, 33.71 billion, and 34.47 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.50%, 2.32%, and 2.25% respectively [7][10]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 4.86 billion, 5.32 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.88%, 9.46%, and 8.19% [7][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 3.56, 3.90, and 4.22 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19, 18, and 16 [7][10].

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer reported a total revenue of 20.49 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.90 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.63 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.0% increase [1] Revenue Analysis - The beer business saw a revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 2.2% and a slight decrease in price per ton by 0.3% [1] - The growth in sales volume was attributed to strong demand during the Spring Festival and low inventory levels at the beginning of the year, outperforming the industry average which saw a 0.3% decline in production from January to June [1] - The sales structure improved, with the main brand's sales increasing by 3.9%, accounting for 57.3% of total sales, and mid-to-high-end product sales rising by 5.1%, making up 42.1% of total sales [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 43.7%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in raw material costs, with the cost per ton of beer decreasing by 3.8% [2] - The company effectively controlled expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing minor changes [2] - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 19.1%, improving by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a steady enhancement in profitability [3] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to slow recovery in beverage market demand, with projected revenues of 32.85 billion, 33.61 billion, and 34.42 billion yuan respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are expected to be 4.75 billion, 5.13 billion, and 5.44 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.3%, 7.9%, and 6.1% respectively [3] - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage in its base market, with comprehensive product coverage and leading brand strength, supported by systematic innovation to adapt to market changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of over 20.49 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 7.2% despite a 0.3% decline in the overall beer industry [1][4][6] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 20.49 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.11% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.904 billion yuan, up 7.21% year-on-year [6] - Net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.632 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.99% [6] - Basic earnings per share were 2.862 yuan, an increase of 7.11% compared to the previous year [6] - Net cash flow from operating activities was 4.799 billion yuan, down 16.00% year-on-year [3][6] Market Position and Strategy - Qingdao Beer maintained its market share through channel advantages, achieving a product sales volume of 4.732 million kiloliters, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, while the overall industry faced a decline [1][4] - The growth in profit was driven by continuous optimization of product structure, with mid-to-high-end product sales increasing by 5.1%, surpassing the overall sales growth [4] - The company is advancing its strategy of "Qingdao Beer main brand + Laoshan Beer as a national second brand," focusing on upgrading the product mix of the main brand [4] - The main brand's sales volume reached 2.713 million kiloliters, a 3.9% increase, with high-value mid-to-high-end products accounting for 1.992 million kiloliters, up 5.1% [4] Innovation and New Channels - The company is focusing on new consumer groups and demands by launching innovative products such as "light dry beer," "sakura-flavored white beer," and "hazy IPA" to meet diverse market needs [4] - Qingdao Beer is solidifying its market position in mainstream channels while leading in emerging channels, with significant growth in its instant retail business through new operational models [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing brand development through a combination of its main brand products and new product innovations [6] - The company aims to expand its new business and retail channels to meet diverse consumer needs, implementing a fresh delivery service in 24 cities [6] - The company is committed to high-quality development and exploring new growth areas through acquisitions and partnerships in non-beer businesses [8] Summary by Sections Basic Information - Latest closing price is 71.97 yuan - 12-month A-share price range is between 53.96 and 83.41 yuan - Total share capital is 1,364.20 million shares - Circulating market value is 98.174 billion yuan [2] Financial Forecasts - Expected revenue for 2025 is 334.67 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.14% - Expected net profit for 2025 is 48.18 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.88% - Corresponding PE ratios are projected at 20x for 2025 [8][11] Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "1+1+1+2+N" product strategy to strengthen its main products while fostering new product development [6] - The company is actively exploring the integration of new businesses, including the acquisition of a traditional yellow wine company [7] - The company is enhancing its brand visibility and quality through innovative marketing strategies and consumer engagement [8]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025Q1实现营业收入104.46亿元，同比+2.9%，主要受销量带动。2025Q1公司累计实现销量226.1万千 升，同比+3.5%。从产品结构看，2025Q1青岛啤酒主品牌销量137.5万千升，同比+4.1%；中高端以上产品 实现销量101.1万千升，同比+5.3%，随着即饮消费场景逐步恢复，公司中高端以上产品销量占比提升。从 吨价来看，2025Q1公司ASP同比-0.6%至4620元/千升。 积极控本降费，净利率改善明显 1）25Q1公司毛利率为41.64%，同比+1.20pcts，主要系大麦和包材等价格下降。此外，中高端以上产品销 量占比提升，亦推动毛利率改善。2）25Q1公司销售费用率为12.53%，同比- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.71 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The sales volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a notable rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, which saw a sales increase of 5.3% [2]. - The company improved its gross margin to 41.64%, up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower prices for barley and packaging materials, as well as an increase in the sales proportion of higher-margin products [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 operating revenue was 10.446 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% driven by sales volume [2]. - The company reported a net profit of 1.71 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% increase year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 0.6% to 4,620 yuan per thousand liters [2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The gross margin improved to 41.64%, up 1.20 percentage points year-on-year, due to lower raw material costs and a higher sales proportion of mid-to-high-end products [3]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 12.53%, down 0.29 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved efficiency in expense allocation [3]. - The net profit margin reached 16.64%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see improved profitability in 2025 due to low year-on-year comparisons and a favorable cost environment, with raw material costs projected to decline [4]. - The new management team, which completed its transition at the end of 2024, is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 4.846 billion, 5.171 billion, and 5.442 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55, 3.79, and 3.99 yuan [4].

Core Viewpoint - The beer giants in China, including Tsingtao Brewery, Budweiser APAC, and China Resources Beer, are facing challenges in achieving sustained growth, with Tsingtao Brewery reporting a decline in revenue and a slight increase in profit for 2024 [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - Tsingtao Brewery's revenue for 2024 was 32.138 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.30% year-on-year, equating to a reduction of approximately 1.8 billion yuan [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.345 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.81%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.951 billion yuan, up 6.19% [1]. - The overall sales volume for Tsingtao Brewery in 2024 was 7.538 million kiloliters, down approximately 5.9% from 8.007 million kiloliters in 2023 [2]. Market Performance Summary - The main brand of Tsingtao Brewery achieved a revenue of 22.083 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of about 5.1%, while other brands generated 9.495 billion yuan, down 6.4% [2]. - The revenue from the Shandong market, Tsingtao Brewery's primary market, was 22.095 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue, with a decline of over 6% [3]. - All major markets, including Shandong, North China, South China, and East China, experienced revenue declines in 2024, with East China seeing a nearly 10% drop [3]. Industry Trends and Competition - The beer industry has been in a state of stagnant competition since 2014, with a 0.6% year-on-year decline in beer production among large-scale enterprises in 2024 [4]. - The trend towards premiumization remains a core theme in the industry, with Tsingtao Brewery reporting that the proportion of mid-to-high-end products in total sales increased from 40.5% to 41.8% [5]. - Tsingtao Brewery has launched several new high-end products, including "One Century Legend" and "Amber Lager," as part of its strategy to enhance product structure [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the high-end market has intensified, with Budweiser APAC reporting a revenue decline of approximately 9% and a net profit decrease of 14.8% in 2024 [8]. - China Resources Beer also faced a revenue decline of 3.57% in 2024, although it reported a growth of over 9% in high-end beer sales following its acquisition of Heineken China [9]. - Tsingtao Brewery aims to optimize its product structure and expand its market presence in mid-to-high-end products to create new growth opportunities [9].