Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - President Trump indicated that Japan is facing a serious rice shortage while not accepting U.S. rice, and plans to send a letter regarding tariffs to Japan [2] - U.S. Agriculture Secretary mentioned that Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow in the U.S. [2] - Media reports suggest U.S. officials are seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, aiming to reach a deal by July 9 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Updates - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel by early next year according to Morgan Stanley [2] - Gold has achieved its largest half-year increase since 2007 [2] - Chile's copper production in May increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 486,574 tons according to Chile's National Statistics Institute [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Insights - The combination of Trump's tariffs and low water levels has led to severe supply chain congestion in European ports, the worst since the pandemic began [2] - Kazakhstan's oil production is projected to exceed expectations by 2% this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to anticipated increases in output from large oil fields [2] - The European Commission's Vice President announced that the EU has reached a preliminary agreement on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products [2] Group 4: Market Forecasts - Citi forecasts that the supply gap in the gold market is expected to peak in Q3 2025, followed by a gradual decline due to decreasing investment demand [2] - Indonesia has raised its July reference price for crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton [2]

Group 1 - The European Union will not extend the duty-free trade measures for Ukrainian agricultural products that have been in place since 2022, with the current policy set to expire on June 5, 2023, and trade reverting to the 2017 agreement from June 6, 2023 [1] - The EU's temporary removal of import tariffs and quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products was implemented after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but farmers in countries like Poland and France have complained about the influx of Ukrainian products harming their interests [1] - The European Parliament has approved a new tariff law imposing a 6.5% basic tariff on fertilizers imported from Russia and Belarus, with additional fees of €40 to €45 per ton to be applied between 2025 and 2026, and a 50% tariff on previously untaxed agricultural products from these countries [1][2] Group 2 - The new tariff law is set to take effect in July 2023, aiming to diversify EU fertilizer production and reduce reliance on low-priced imports from Russia, although there are concerns that this may lead to a significant increase in fertilizer prices, negatively impacting farmers [2]

Group 1 - The EU will not extend the tariff exemption policy for Ukrainian agricultural products, which will expire on June 5, 2023, and trade will revert to the 2017 agreement from June 6, 2023 [2] - The temporary removal of tariffs was implemented after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, but farmers in countries like Poland and France have complained about the influx of Ukrainian products harming their interests [2] - The EU had previously promised to negotiate a new trade agreement with Ukraine, but no formal negotiations have started as of May 2023 [2] Group 2 - The European Parliament has approved a new tariff law on fertilizers and certain agricultural products from Russia and Belarus, imposing a basic tariff of 6.5% on fertilizers and an additional fee of €40 to €45 per ton from 2025 to 2026 [4] - A 50% tariff will be applied to Russian and Belarusian agricultural products that have not yet been subject to additional tariffs [4] - The aim of this legislation is to diversify the EU's fertilizer production and reduce dependence on low-priced imports from Russia, although there are concerns about significant price increases for fertilizers affecting farmers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is planning to significantly increase tariffs on agricultural products imported from Ukraine, which will drastically reduce the previously tariff-free import quotas for these products [1] Group 1 - The EU's decision is based on information from multiple diplomatic sources [1] - The new tariffs will be implemented in the coming weeks [1] - This move indicates a shift in trade policy towards Ukrainian agricultural imports [1]