当地时间20日，美国白宫宣布，总统特朗普签署行政令，修改对从巴西进口商品的关税范围。部分商品 40%从价关税维持不变，但鉴于谈判取得进展，对美东时间11月13日零点后进入美国的特定巴西农产品 取消附加从价关税。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） 白宫称，此举旨在平衡国家安全关切与推动对巴贸易关系发展。 ...

Group 1 - Canada and India have resumed diplomatic relations by appointing new high commissioners for each other, marking the first such move in nearly 10 months [1][3] - The appointment of Christopher Kut as Canada's new high commissioner to India reflects a gradual approach to deepen diplomatic interactions and enhance bilateral cooperation, which is deemed beneficial for Canada's economy [3] - India's government has appointed Patnaik, the current ambassador to Spain, as the next high commissioner to Canada, bringing over 30 years of diplomatic experience [3] Group 2 - The diplomatic tensions between Canada and India escalated in September 2023 when Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau publicly accused the Indian government of involvement in the assassination of Sikh leader Nijjar, leading to mutual expulsions of diplomats [3] - Concurrently, the U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods as a punitive measure for India's purchase of Russian oil, while also increasing tariffs on certain Canadian goods to 35% [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a potential shift towards a dovish stance, indicating that the market's expectations for a rate cut in September are likely to be realized, with a 25 basis point cut being anticipated [6][7][9] - Following Powell's remarks, the stock market experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising nearly 1000 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by approximately 2% [1][2] - The expectation of a rate cut has led to a sharp decline in the US dollar index, which fell by 0.9006% to 97.7623 [5][6] Group 2: Canadian Tariff Changes - Canada announced the cancellation of several retaliatory tariffs on US goods that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), aiming to ease tensions with the US [11][12] - This policy shift indicates a significant change in Canada's approach to US trade relations, moving away from a previously aggressive stance against US protectionism [12] - However, Canada may retain tariffs on US steel, aluminum, and automobiles, which were previously imposed by the Trump administration [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, indicated a 35% probability that the contents of his letter regarding trade with Canada could materialize, suggesting that if Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cooperates, President Trump may consider lowering tariffs [1] Group 1 - The probability of the letter's contents being realized is stated to be 35% [1] - Cooperation from Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is seen as a key factor in potentially lowering tariffs by President Trump [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Short-term short [2] - Asphalt: High-level short [8] - PX: Oscillating weakly [8] - Gold: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] - Silver: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Core Views - The supply of coke is slightly decreasing, the demand has rigid support, the first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - International oil prices are falling, with short-term low inventory and medium-term supply increase expectations, so short in the short term [2] - Steel prices are pushed up by limit production and raw material prices, but the demand is expected to weaken this week. Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] - Ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level under the game of long and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [5] - The short-term price of live pigs rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] - The short-term price of palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] - The short-term price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] - The supply and demand of asphalt improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] - The spot pressure of PX appears, and it is viewed as oscillating weakly [8] - Gold is pushed up by geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances, and it is slightly bullish in the medium-term wide-range oscillation [9] - Silver is slightly bullish in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the synchronous movement with gold [9] - The long-term bond market is affected by the stock-bond seesaw, and whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] - The short-term bond market is affected by tight capital, and attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] - The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] - The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13] Summaries by Variety Coke - Supply: Affected by profit compression and Tangshan limit production, the overall supply continues the downward trend [1] - Demand: Steel mills have low inventory and good profits, and the rigid demand for coke still exists [1] - Price: The first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] Crude Oil - Supply: Short-term low inventory, medium-term OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, with supply increase expectations [2] - Price: International oil prices fall, and short in the short term [2] Rebar - Supply: Affected by limit production and raw material prices, the price is pushed up [4] - Demand: The new round of high temperature affects construction progress, and the demand is expected to weaken this week [4] - Price: Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] Iron Ore - Supply: Port inventory decreases, and the number of ships in port increases [5] - Price: The main futures price oscillates at a high level, and it is expected to continue the high-level oscillation under the game of long and short factors [5] Live Pigs - Supply: The group farms' slaughter rhythm is slow, and the second fattening support is insufficient [6] - Demand: The demand is weak, and the slaughterhouse orders are limited [6] - Price: The short-term price rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysian production increases, and Indian imports increase [6] - Demand: The domestic spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and the downstream is on the sidelines [6] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] Soybean Meal - Supply: The trade tariff adjustment causes concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter [7] - Demand: The oil mill sales progress is slow, and the basis price is lowered [7] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly output increases, and the supply next week may be restricted [7][8] - Demand: Affected by weather, the infrastructure demand recovers slowly [8] - Price: The supply and demand improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] PX - Supply: The domestic and overseas operating rates show different trends, and the overall supply is relatively stable [8] - Demand: The PTA processing fee is at a new low, and the PX spot pressure appears [8] - Price: Oscillating weakly [8] Gold - Driving Factors: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances strengthen, and the safe-haven sentiment pushes up the price [9] - Price: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] Silver - Driving Factors: The Fed faces threats from the government, and the inflation expectation rises [9] - Price: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Long-term Treasury Bonds - Economic Situation: The economy has strong resilience and the recovery momentum is strengthened [10] - Market Situation: The long-term funds enter the market, and the stock-bond seesaw affects the bond market [10] - Price: Whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] Short-term Treasury Bonds - Capital Situation: The capital is tight, which is bearish for short-term bonds [10] - Price: Attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] Methanol - Supply: The cost is stable, the domestic start-up is expected to increase, and the port import is expected to increase [11] - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to be weak [11] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] Soda Ash - Supply: The production increases, and the inventory rises [12] - Demand: The downstream demand is mediocre [12] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] Plastic - Supply: The production enterprise devices are slightly adjusted, and the supply is expected to change little [13] - Demand: In the traditional off-season, the overall transaction is difficult to expand [13] - Price: The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13]

Core Viewpoint - The United States and Vietnam are reportedly close to reaching a trade framework that imposes tariffs based on the proportion of foreign components in products exported to the U.S. [1] Summary by Categories Tariff Structure - Products with a high proportion of foreign components (up to 20% or more) will face tariffs around 20% or higher [1] - Products with a lower proportion of foreign components will see slightly reduced tax rates [1] - Products entirely sourced from Vietnam will be subject to the lowest tax rate, potentially around the current standard rate of 10% [1]

Group 1 - The EU will not extend the tariff exemption policy for Ukrainian agricultural products, which will expire on June 5, 2023, and trade will revert to the 2017 agreement from June 6, 2023 [2] - The temporary removal of tariffs was implemented after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, but farmers in countries like Poland and France have complained about the influx of Ukrainian products harming their interests [2] - The EU had previously promised to negotiate a new trade agreement with Ukraine, but no formal negotiations have started as of May 2023 [2] Group 2 - The European Parliament has approved a new tariff law on fertilizers and certain agricultural products from Russia and Belarus, imposing a basic tariff of 6.5% on fertilizers and an additional fee of €40 to €45 per ton from 2025 to 2026 [4] - A 50% tariff will be applied to Russian and Belarusian agricultural products that have not yet been subject to additional tariffs [4] - The aim of this legislation is to diversify the EU's fertilizer production and reduce dependence on low-priced imports from Russia, although there are concerns about significant price increases for fertilizers affecting farmers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in container shipping bookings from China to the United States following the mutual tariff reductions between the two countries, indicating a potential recovery in trade activity and logistics demand [1]. Group 1 - The average booking volume of container shipments from China to the U.S. surged by nearly 300% after the tariff reductions [1]. - As of May 5, the seven-day average booking volume was 5,709 standard containers, which increased to 21,530 standard containers by May 14, reflecting a 277% rise [1].

Core Insights - The trade tracking agency Vizion reported a significant increase in container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. following the mutual tariff reductions between the two countries, with bookings soaring nearly 300% [1] Group 1: Shipping Industry Impact - The average booking volume of standard containers from China to the U.S. increased from 5,709 containers as of May 5 to 21,530 containers as of May 14, marking a 277% rise over a seven-day average [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic soybean meal is tight in the short - term, with high spot prices, but the supply pressure will appear in the medium - term as the import volume increases and the oil mill's operating rate recovers. The price of soybean meal futures may be under pressure when the operating rate recovers and the downstream buying sentiment cools down. [5][17] - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the future, with the number of newborn piglets reaching a high level and the slaughter weight rising. The future rebound space of the live pig futures market is limited, and the price will be under pressure in the medium - term. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - DCE soybean meal主力 2509 contract rose 0.36% to 3059 yuan/ton. Coastal mainstream oil mills' quotations increased by 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with Tianjin at 4300 yuan/ton (up 220 yuan/ton), Jiangsu at 3950 yuan/ton (up 250 yuan/ton), and Guangdong at 3930 yuan/ton (up 310 yuan/ton). [2] - DCE live pig主力 2509 contract fell 0.83% to 14135 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.89 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg. [2] - Overnight CBOT US soybean主力 contract rose 0.5% to 1052 cents/bushel. [2] 2. Main Producing Area Weather - In the US Midwest, precipitation is expected to be active on weekends, and the wet conditions in the south may delay sowing. From last Friday to this Monday, there were local sporadic showers in both the west and the east. The temperature conditions varied in different periods and regions. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows local sporadic showers and temperatures close to or higher than normal from Tuesday to Saturday. The dry weather at the beginning of last week promoted planting and field operations, but more rainfall systems are expected to appear over the weekend and this week. [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - The inventory reconstruction of soybeans takes time, and the short - term supply shortage situation remains. The pre - May Day stocking supports the price, but the import volume of soybeans in May - June is expected to be 23 million tons, and the oil mill's operating rate will recover to over 50%, along with the release of state - reserve soybeans, which will bring supply pressure and may lead to price decline. [5] - On April 23, the national major oil mills' soybean meal trading volume was 1.805 million tons, a decrease of 2.474 million tons compared with the previous day. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 42.4%, an increase of 3.11% compared with the previous day. [5] - On April 24, the import cost of US soybeans was 3869 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), the cost after tariff was 7316 yuan/ton (unchanged), the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3664 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3690 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan). [5] - On April 24, the daily slaughter volume of key live pig breeding enterprises increased by 1.23%, and the daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises increased by 0.92%. [5][6] - As of April 17, the expected net sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 market year were between 200,000 - 600,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year were 0 - 200,000 tons; the expected net sales of US soybean meal in the 2024/25 market year were between 150,000 - 350,000 tons, and in the 2025/26 market year were 0 - 50,000 tons. [6] - Due to the heavy rain in March and early April, the soybean harvesting rate was lower than the five - year average, and the output was at risk. The exchange expected the soybean output to be 48.6 million tons. The slow - down of soybean sales was also affected by the harvest delay. As of April 16, farmers had sold 23.4% of the 2024/25 crops, the slowest rate in ten years. [6] - In March, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 3.228968 million tons, soybean oil output was 644,820 tons, and soybean meal output was 2.387321 million tons. [6] - Brazil's expected soybean export volume in April was 14.3 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons compared with last week's forecast, and the expected soybean meal export volume remained at 2.4 million tons. [7] - In mid - April 2025, compared with early April, among 50 important production materials, 10 products' prices rose, 32 decreased, and 8 remained unchanged. The price of live pigs (outer ternary) was 14.9 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg (1.4%). [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the price of rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the price of live pigs in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, China's soybean inventory, and China's soybean meal inventory. [10][12][13][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, US soybean futures rose due to the expected easing of global trade tensions. The domestic soybean meal spot price increased by an average of 200 yuan/ton per day, with a serious vehicle - pressing situation in oil mills and a tight supply. The customs clearance problem will continue, but a large amount of soybeans will arrive in the second quarter, and the oil mill's operating rate is gradually recovering. There is a risk of chasing high prices in the short - term. [17] - For live pigs, the number of breeding sows has recovered, and the future theoretical slaughter volume of live pigs will increase. The number of newborn piglets in March reached a high level, and the slaughter weight has been rising. The future rebound space of the live pig futures market is limited, and the price will be under pressure in the medium - term. [18]