Group 1 - Canada and India have resumed diplomatic relations by appointing new high commissioners for each other, marking the first such move in nearly 10 months [1][3] - The appointment of Christopher Kut as Canada's new high commissioner to India reflects a gradual approach to deepen diplomatic interactions and enhance bilateral cooperation, which is deemed beneficial for Canada's economy [3] - India's government has appointed Patnaik, the current ambassador to Spain, as the next high commissioner to Canada, bringing over 30 years of diplomatic experience [3] Group 2 - The diplomatic tensions between Canada and India escalated in September 2023 when Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau publicly accused the Indian government of involvement in the assassination of Sikh leader Nijjar, leading to mutual expulsions of diplomats [3] - Concurrently, the U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods as a punitive measure for India's purchase of Russian oil, while also increasing tariffs on certain Canadian goods to 35% [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a potential shift towards a dovish stance, indicating that the market's expectations for a rate cut in September are likely to be realized, with a 25 basis point cut being anticipated [6][7][9] - Following Powell's remarks, the stock market experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising nearly 1000 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by approximately 2% [1][2] - The expectation of a rate cut has led to a sharp decline in the US dollar index, which fell by 0.9006% to 97.7623 [5][6] Group 2: Canadian Tariff Changes - Canada announced the cancellation of several retaliatory tariffs on US goods that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), aiming to ease tensions with the US [11][12] - This policy shift indicates a significant change in Canada's approach to US trade relations, moving away from a previously aggressive stance against US protectionism [12] - However, Canada may retain tariffs on US steel, aluminum, and automobiles, which were previously imposed by the Trump administration [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, indicated a 35% probability that the contents of his letter regarding trade with Canada could materialize, suggesting that if Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cooperates, President Trump may consider lowering tariffs [1] Group 1 - The probability of the letter's contents being realized is stated to be 35% [1] - Cooperation from Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is seen as a key factor in potentially lowering tariffs by President Trump [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Short-term short [2] - Asphalt: High-level short [8] - PX: Oscillating weakly [8] - Gold: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] - Silver: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Core Views - The supply of coke is slightly decreasing, the demand has rigid support, the first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - International oil prices are falling, with short-term low inventory and medium-term supply increase expectations, so short in the short term [2] - Steel prices are pushed up by limit production and raw material prices, but the demand is expected to weaken this week. Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] - Ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level under the game of long and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [5] - The short-term price of live pigs rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] - The short-term price of palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] - The short-term price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] - The supply and demand of asphalt improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] - The spot pressure of PX appears, and it is viewed as oscillating weakly [8] - Gold is pushed up by geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances, and it is slightly bullish in the medium-term wide-range oscillation [9] - Silver is slightly bullish in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the synchronous movement with gold [9] - The long-term bond market is affected by the stock-bond seesaw, and whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] - The short-term bond market is affected by tight capital, and attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] - The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] - The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13] Summaries by Variety Coke - Supply: Affected by profit compression and Tangshan limit production, the overall supply continues the downward trend [1] - Demand: Steel mills have low inventory and good profits, and the rigid demand for coke still exists [1] - Price: The first round of price increase has been initiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] Crude Oil - Supply: Short-term low inventory, medium-term OPEC+ maintains the stance of increasing production, with supply increase expectations [2] - Price: International oil prices fall, and short in the short term [2] Rebar - Supply: Affected by limit production and raw material prices, the price is pushed up [4] - Demand: The new round of high temperature affects construction progress, and the demand is expected to weaken this week [4] - Price: Considering cost support, steel prices will be adjusted in a narrow range [4] Iron Ore - Supply: Port inventory decreases, and the number of ships in port increases [5] - Price: The main futures price oscillates at a high level, and it is expected to continue the high-level oscillation under the game of long and short factors [5] Live Pigs - Supply: The group farms' slaughter rhythm is slow, and the second fattening support is insufficient [6] - Demand: The demand is weak, and the slaughterhouse orders are limited [6] - Price: The short-term price rebounds weakly, and interval trading is recommended [6] Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysian production increases, and Indian imports increase [6] - Demand: The domestic spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and the downstream is on the sidelines [6] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [6] Soybean Meal - Supply: The trade tariff adjustment causes concerns about soybean supply in the fourth quarter [7] - Demand: The oil mill sales progress is slow, and the basis price is lowered [7] - Price: The short-term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with strong technical support at 2900 - 2920 and attention to the pressure at 3030 [7] Asphalt - Supply: The weekly output increases, and the supply next week may be restricted [7][8] - Demand: Affected by weather, the infrastructure demand recovers slowly [8] - Price: The supply and demand improve limitedly, and it is bearish at a high level [8] PX - Supply: The domestic and overseas operating rates show different trends, and the overall supply is relatively stable [8] - Demand: The PTA processing fee is at a new low, and the PX spot pressure appears [8] - Price: Oscillating weakly [8] Gold - Driving Factors: Geopolitical risks and tariff disturbances strengthen, and the safe-haven sentiment pushes up the price [9] - Price: Medium-term wide-range oscillation slightly bullish [9] Silver - Driving Factors: The Fed faces threats from the government, and the inflation expectation rises [9] - Price: Oscillating slightly bullish [9] Long-term Treasury Bonds - Economic Situation: The economy has strong resilience and the recovery momentum is strengthened [10] - Market Situation: The long-term funds enter the market, and the stock-bond seesaw affects the bond market [10] - Price: Whether it enters a bearish trend needs to be observed, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [10] Short-term Treasury Bonds - Capital Situation: The capital is tight, which is bearish for short-term bonds [10] - Price: Attention should be paid to the direction choice at the 60-day moving average after the rebound [10] Methanol - Supply: The cost is stable, the domestic start-up is expected to increase, and the port import is expected to increase [11] - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to be weak [11] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] Soda Ash - Supply: The production increases, and the inventory rises [12] - Demand: The downstream demand is mediocre [12] - Price: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12] Plastic - Supply: The production enterprise devices are slightly adjusted, and the supply is expected to change little [13] - Demand: In the traditional off-season, the overall transaction is difficult to expand [13] - Price: The L 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and shorting is recommended [13]

Core Viewpoint - The United States and Vietnam are reportedly close to reaching a trade framework that imposes tariffs based on the proportion of foreign components in products exported to the U.S. [1] Summary by Categories Tariff Structure - Products with a high proportion of foreign components (up to 20% or more) will face tariffs around 20% or higher [1] - Products with a lower proportion of foreign components will see slightly reduced tax rates [1] - Products entirely sourced from Vietnam will be subject to the lowest tax rate, potentially around the current standard rate of 10% [1]

Group 1 - The EU will not extend the tariff exemption policy for Ukrainian agricultural products, which will expire on June 5, 2023, and trade will revert to the 2017 agreement from June 6, 2023 [2] - The temporary removal of tariffs was implemented after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, but farmers in countries like Poland and France have complained about the influx of Ukrainian products harming their interests [2] - The EU had previously promised to negotiate a new trade agreement with Ukraine, but no formal negotiations have started as of May 2023 [2] Group 2 - The European Parliament has approved a new tariff law on fertilizers and certain agricultural products from Russia and Belarus, imposing a basic tariff of 6.5% on fertilizers and an additional fee of €40 to €45 per ton from 2025 to 2026 [4] - A 50% tariff will be applied to Russian and Belarusian agricultural products that have not yet been subject to additional tariffs [4] - The aim of this legislation is to diversify the EU's fertilizer production and reduce dependence on low-priced imports from Russia, although there are concerns about significant price increases for fertilizers affecting farmers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in container shipping bookings from China to the United States following the mutual tariff reductions between the two countries, indicating a potential recovery in trade activity and logistics demand [1]. Group 1 - The average booking volume of container shipments from China to the U.S. surged by nearly 300% after the tariff reductions [1]. - As of May 5, the seven-day average booking volume was 5,709 standard containers, which increased to 21,530 standard containers by May 14, reflecting a 277% rise [1].

Core Insights - The trade tracking agency Vizion reported a significant increase in container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. following the mutual tariff reductions between the two countries, with bookings soaring nearly 300% [1] Group 1: Shipping Industry Impact - The average booking volume of standard containers from China to the U.S. increased from 5,709 containers as of May 5 to 21,530 containers as of May 14, marking a 277% rise over a seven-day average [1]

豆粕生猪：通关持续扰动 豆粕再创新高 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金门期货 JIORHI FILLINE | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3077 | 3063 | 14.00 | 0.46% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3049 | 2984 | 65.00 | 2.18% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 3059 | 3048 | 11.00 | 0.36% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 4月24日 | 元/吨 | 2455 | 2432 | 23.00 | 0.95% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 4月2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Many countries have indicated they will not take retaliatory measures, and some have already lowered tariffs [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamison Greer, highlighted that several nations are refraining from imposing retaliatory tariffs [1] - A number of countries have proactively reduced their tariffs in response to recent trade developments [1]