Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current market is characterized by a "golden age of chaos" and an "industrial revolution," with gold remaining the core choice for de-dollarization and risk aversion [2][13] - As of September 29, 2025, gold prices reached historical highs, with London gold at $3827.37 per ounce and New York gold at $3856.38 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets, shifts in monetary policy, and changes in supply-demand dynamics [3][5] - The significant rise in gold prices, over 42% year-to-date, is attributed to heightened market risk aversion, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions [5][6] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have surged, with London silver nearing $44 per ounce, marking a 40% increase year-to-date, driven by a recovery in the gold-silver ratio and strong industrial demand [8][9] - The dual nature of silver as both an industrial and financial asset has contributed to its price increase, particularly in sectors like photovoltaics and renewable energy [8][9] - The silver market is smaller than gold, making it more susceptible to speculative trading, which can lead to significant price volatility [10] Group 3: Copper Market Analysis - Copper prices have recently surpassed $10,000 per ton, with a nearly 20% increase this year, influenced by an expanding supply gap and surging demand from emerging sectors [12][13] - The supply gap is expected to reach 53,000 tons in 2025 and 87,000 tons in 2026, exacerbated by mining disruptions and limited production growth [12] - The structural bull market for copper is driven by long-term demand from green technologies and AI, while supply growth remains constrained [12]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (9.22-9.26) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油自低位回升，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶65.19美元，周涨4.54%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶68.82 美元，周涨4.19%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶495元，周涨1.64%。尽管此前美方表示欧盟应该停止购买俄罗斯石油，但匈牙利方面表示，匈方 反对在没有可行替代方案的情况下提前停止进口俄罗斯化石燃料，伊拉克原油出口增加的预期导致油价承压下跌，原油在周初下行，但之后乌 克兰袭击行动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端设备瘫痪，相关设施每日出口原油约200万桶， ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购价格的指引。今年大豆新作总体供应预期向好。国内大豆和进口大豆价差反 弹,进口大豆价格疲软,由于阿根廷临时取消农产品出口税,以便于增加美元收入,缓解比索的贬值压力,因 此阿根廷豆类品种出口短期会有明显的增量。即使中国不采购美国大豆，叠加中国大豆还有庞大的库存，也容 易使得明年一季度中国大豆 ...

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing stable global demand growth at an annual rate of approximately 1.2%, primarily driven by high-end manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and military, consuming about 110,000 tons of pure tungsten annually, equivalent to 220,000 tons of tungsten concentrate [1][3][9] - China dominates global tungsten supply, providing around 80% of the demand, with 2024 native tungsten concentrate production expected to be 133,500 tons, which is insufficient to meet market demand [1][5][27] Key Points on Tungsten Prices - Recent supply-demand changes in the minor metals market have led to a rapid increase in tungsten prices, with 55-degree tungsten concentrate reaching 220,000 yuan per ton and APT prices nearing 330,000 yuan, marking a historical high and an increase of over 50% compared to the average price in 2024 [1][10] - Factors contributing to the price increase include reduced tungsten quotas by the Ministry of Natural Resources, strengthened export controls, significant price hikes in international markets, and increased military demand due to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war [1][11][14] Supply Chain Structure - The tungsten industry supply chain consists of upstream (mining, ore dressing, and waste recycling), midstream (tungsten smelting), and downstream (alloy manufacturing) [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2024, China's total tungsten raw material supply is projected to be approximately 204,700 tons, including 134,700 tons of native tungsten, 60,000 tons of recycled tungsten, and 10,000 tons of imported tungsten concentrate [3][16] - There exists a supply gap of about 10,000 tons in the Chinese tungsten market, with both enterprise and social inventories at historical lows [3][22][23] Military Demand Impact - The military sector's direct and indirect consumption of tungsten is significantly increasing, driven by a large-scale arms race, which is expected to further elevate demand for tungsten products [1][13][15] Recycling and Recovered Tungsten - The use of recycled tungsten materials has increased, with some factories using up to 30% recycled materials in 2024, compared to less than 10% five years ago [1][8] - The growth rate of recycled tungsten production is expected to be around 7-8% in 2025, reaching approximately 60,000 tons [17][19] Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has intensified efforts to combat the smuggling of scrap metals, which has further tightened market conditions [12] - Strict management of over-extraction has led to cautious behavior among mining companies, impacting current and future native tungsten supply [20][24] Future Outlook - The global demand for tungsten is anticipated to continue rising, particularly due to military spending increases in Europe and other regions, which may lead to sustained price increases [15][41] - The market is expected to remain under supply constraints, with total supply projected to be around 200,000 tons in 2025, while demand is expected to reach approximately 220,000 tons [26][41] Conclusion - The tungsten industry is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, rising demand driven by military needs, and significant price volatility influenced by regulatory actions and geopolitical factors. The outlook suggests continued pressure on supply and potential for further price increases in the coming years.

Group 1 - The platinum market is experiencing unprecedented tightness due to tariff concerns and speculative buying, leading to significant flows of platinum from London and Zurich to U.S. and Chinese warehouses [1] - After a record increase last month, spot prices have reached new highs, with one-month implied borrowing costs for platinum hitting the highest level since data collection began in 2002 [1] - The influx of over 500,000 ounces of platinum into U.S. warehouses earlier this year was driven by tariff-related premiums, mirroring trends seen in the copper market [1] Group 2 - Despite a slight price retreat, market tensions remain unresolved, with spot premium structures strengthening as buyers pay significantly higher prices for immediate supply compared to future contracts [5] - The rise in leasing rates is partly attributed to industry users questioning the sustainability of the recent price surge, which has seen platinum prices soar nearly 60% year-to-date [7] - The World Platinum Investment Council anticipates a supply deficit of nearly 1 million ounces this year, further depleting already limited ground inventories [7]

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - President Trump indicated that Japan is facing a serious rice shortage while not accepting U.S. rice, and plans to send a letter regarding tariffs to Japan [2] - U.S. Agriculture Secretary mentioned that Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow in the U.S. [2] - Media reports suggest U.S. officials are seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, aiming to reach a deal by July 9 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Updates - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel by early next year according to Morgan Stanley [2] - Gold has achieved its largest half-year increase since 2007 [2] - Chile's copper production in May increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 486,574 tons according to Chile's National Statistics Institute [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Insights - The combination of Trump's tariffs and low water levels has led to severe supply chain congestion in European ports, the worst since the pandemic began [2] - Kazakhstan's oil production is projected to exceed expectations by 2% this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to anticipated increases in output from large oil fields [2] - The European Commission's Vice President announced that the EU has reached a preliminary agreement on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products [2] Group 4: Market Forecasts - Citi forecasts that the supply gap in the gold market is expected to peak in Q3 2025, followed by a gradual decline due to decreasing investment demand [2] - Indonesia has raised its July reference price for crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton [2]