1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Before the geopolitical situation eases, the cost support for PX is strong, and there is an expectation of significant de - stocking. Strategy: stage - low long positions and use put options for hedging; go long on the PX9 - 1 spread at a low level; widen the PXN spread when there are signs of geopolitical easing [1]. - PTA: In the second quarter, PTA has limited self - drive, and its absolute price follows the cost. Strategy: stage - low long positions and use put options for hedging; look for high - level reverse spread opportunities for the PTA9 - 1 spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: In the second quarter, affected by the Middle East situation, the cost support is strong, and there is a significant de - stocking expectation. Strategy: before the Middle East oil transportation recovers, EG may rise, but beware of pull - backs; lightly buy EG call options [1]. - Short - fiber: In the second quarter, short - fiber has weak self - drive and follows the raw materials. Strategy: the same as PTA for the single - side position; try to widen the spread when the PF processing fee is below 800 [1]. - Bottle - chip: In the second quarter, the supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategy: the same as PTA for the single - side position; the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong; lightly buy PR call options [1]. Urea Industry In March, the urea market showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing. In April, the supply may decrease slightly in the first half of the month, and the demand will weaken slightly. The price may be firm in the first half of the month and may decline in the second half [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: In March, the price of caustic soda showed a trend of rising after a slight decline. In April, the price increase may be limited [3]. - PVC: In March, the average monthly price of PVC increased. In April, the average monthly price is expected to move up slightly, but the recovery of the real estate market and slow inventory de - stocking may limit the increase [3]. Natural Rubber Industry The supply pressure from the opening of the rubber - tapping season and the support from high overseas costs and geopolitical events will lead to wide - range fluctuations in rubber prices, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Pay attention to the follow - up development of the US - Iran conflict [4]. Methanol Industry The current market is driven by the supply gap caused by the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The methanol fundamentals have improved, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [5]. Crude Oil Industry The main factors affecting oil prices are geopolitical support and policy suppression. If the situation does not improve, there is still upward momentum in the short - term. In the long - term, pay attention to the impact of high oil prices on inflation, the economy, and energy substitution [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it may follow the oil price. Strategy: wait and see; narrow the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high [10]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is still tight. In the short - term, the absolute price follows the oil price. Strategy: the same as pure benzene [10]. LPG Industry The LPG market is affected by factors such as price changes, inventory, and upstream and downstream operating rates. The overall situation needs to be comprehensively analyzed based on various factors [11]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: In the second quarter, the price may further decline due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand. Pay attention to the support at around 1150 for SA605 [12]. - Glass: Affected by multiple factors such as weak supply - demand, high inventory, and cost expectations, pay attention to the recovery of demand and inventory de - stocking [12]. Polyolefin Industry The polyolefin market is trading around the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply". The 05 - contract inventory is expected to be low. In April, the supply and cost support will be further strengthened [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On March 27, most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows showed changes, such as a decline in POY, FDY, and DTY prices and cash flows [1]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX, PX spot price, and PX futures prices all increased, and the PX spreads also changed [1]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot and futures prices increased, and the PTA basis and spreads changed [1]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot and futures prices increased, and the MEG basis and spreads changed. MEG port inventory increased, and the expected arrival decreased [1]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of urea futures contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [2]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of upstream raw materials and downstream products showed different changes, and the regional and inter - market spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rates of urea showed different trends, and the market price showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [3]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and downstream industries, as well as the inventory of caustic soda and PVC, changed [3]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber increased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production, operating rates, import and export volumes, and inventory of natural rubber showed different trends [4]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot prices increased, and the spreads between contracts and regions changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and the society decreased [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream enterprises of methanol changed [5]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Dubai crude oils changed, and the spreads between contracts and different crude oils also changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oils such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oils showed different trends [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and raw materials also changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures increased, and the spreads between styrene and pure benzene also changed [10]. - **Downstream Cash Flows and Inventories**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, and the inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports also changed [10]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries changed [10]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts and spot prices changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11]. - **External Market Prices**: The prices of LPG external market contracts increased [11]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of LPG upstream and downstream changed [11]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass spot and futures changed, and the basis also changed [12]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash spot and futures changed, and the basis also changed [12]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real Estate Data**: The supply, inventory of glass and soda ash, and real - estate data showed different trends [12]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [13]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and the basis also changed [13]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The non - standard prices of PE and PP changed [13]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of PE and PP upstream and downstream changed [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 20, the spot price in Jiangsu was 6300 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract had a premium of about 100 yuan/ton. With steel mills' restocking, the short - term fundamentals have improved. Cost pressure supports the firmness of manganese ore prices. The price is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the actual shipment of Australian manganese ore and the fuel supply and situation in South Africa [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - On Friday, affected by the news of the Australian hurricane and multiple factors, many near - month contracts of manganese - silicon futures rose by more than 5%, and the silicon - iron futures price also increased. The operating rates of both silicon products are at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years, and the demand has continued to increase month - on - month. Some steel mills' tender volume and price have both increased. As of March 20, the total inventory of silicon - manganese enterprises was 38.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons, significantly higher than the same - period level [3] Event Impact Pre - assessment - Given the months - long production and shipment interruption of the Groot Island mining area caused by the cyclone in 2024, if the path of this super typhoon is similar, its potential impact needs to be significantly increased. The core risk is not the short - term suspension of operations but the possible substantial damage to port infrastructure and its long repair cycle. If the shipment interruption is confirmed and continues, the market will quickly trade on the "supply gap" expectation. Near - month contracts will receive the strongest driving force, and the price may break through the current oscillation range. This event will resonate with the high shipping costs and South African supply risks, enhancing market bullish sentiment and volatility and attracting more speculative funds. If the demand for downstream silicon - manganese alloys remains weak, it may partially offset the positive effects of supply tightening, limiting the upside space of prices, but the downside support will be very strong due to cost and supply risks [3] Silicon - Manganese Market Price - From March 12 to March 19, 2026, the prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Jiangsu increased by 20, 10, 50, 50, 50, and 100 yuan/ton respectively [8] Cost and Profit - The spot production costs in the northern and southern regions, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou changed by 3, 20, 5, 19, 8, and 8 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot profits changed by 92, 100, 15, - 9, 42, and 42 yuan/ton respectively [11] Supply - As of March 20, the total national silicon - manganese output was 19.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 tons; the operating rate was 36.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05% [23] Demand - He Steel's silicon - manganese tender in January was priced at 5920 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 17,000 tons. There was no centralized purchase in February due to maintenance. Attention should be paid to the volume and price in March [28] Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 38.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 tons [29] Manganese Ore Price - From March 12 to March 19, 2026, the prices of Comilog Gabon lump, South32 Australian lump, CML Australian lump, South32 semi - carbonate, and Fujax South African high - iron increased by 0.5, 0.3, 0.8, 0.3, and 0.1 yuan/ton - degree respectively [32] Manganese Ore Import - In 2025, China's cumulative manganese ore imports increased by 12.2% year - on - year. South Africa, Gabon, Australia, Ghana, and other countries accounted for 53.0%, 11.5%, 10.9%, 16.2%, and 8.3% respectively [36][37] Manganese Ore Inventory - As of March 13, the total national port inventory was 470.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1 tons [42] Silicon - Iron Market Price - From March 12 to March 19, 2026, the prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu changed by - 30, - 20, 0, 0, - 20, and 150 yuan/ton respectively [47] Cost and Profit - The spot costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Shaanxi remained unchanged, and the spot profits changed by - 30, - 20, 0, 0, and - 20 yuan/ton respectively [49][50] Supply - As of October 24, the weekly silicon - iron output was 11.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 tons; the operating rate was 35.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08% [60] Demand - He Steel's silicon - iron tender in March was priced at 5950 yuan/ton, a 190 - yuan increase from February; the purchase volume was 1155 tons, a decrease of 940 tons from February and 728 tons from the same period last year [65] Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 5.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18 tons [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the crude oil market fluctuated violently. Geopolitics was the core influencing factor. The geopolitical risk premium rapidly declined, the IEA's release of strategic oil reserves was expected to suppress the market, and the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz provided support for the market. The future geopolitical situation remains unclear, and the risk of continued conflict is high. The IEA's release of strategic oil reserves may affect market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the oil price trend under the continuous interruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can be effectively navigable is still the key factor affecting the oil price trend. If the interruption continues, the pricing model of the market is expected to shift from "risk premium" to "supply gap", and the oil price center is expected to move up further. If the Strait of Hormuz is conditionally navigable under the mediation of international diplomatic forces, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil price is expected to decline. Short - term fluctuations intensify, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [8][55] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focus: The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz continues, Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries collectively cut production, and the IEA releases 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves [7] - Key data: From the week ending March 6, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 3.824 million barrels, the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.001 million barrels [7] - Main view: The crude oil market fluctuated violently this week. Geopolitics was the core influencing factor. The future geopolitical situation is unclear, and the oil price trend depends on the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. Short - term fluctuations intensify, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [8] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Interruption of the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of geopolitical conflicts [11] - Bearish factors: IEA's release of strategic oil reserves, temporary exemption of Russian oil sanctions by the US [11] Macroeconomic Analysis - Cease - fire prospects: The cease - fire prospects are slim, but the intensity and scale may decline. Trump made contradictory statements, Iran put forward cease - fire conditions, and the new supreme leader of Iran stated that he would not give up revenge and the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed [13][14] - Strait of Hormuz: The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz has been interrupted. Iran has made multiple statements on the control of the strait, and the interruption is expected to continue until the two sides achieve a complete cease - fire [16][17] - Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries' production cuts: As of March 10, the total production cuts of four Gulf countries reached 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% - 7% of the global oil supply. If the interruption of the strait continues, the production cuts may expand [18] - IEA's release of strategic oil reserves: The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest scale in history. The impact on the crude oil market depends on the release speed. The US temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil [19] Data Analysis - Supply side: US crude oil production decreased slightly, and the number of oil drilling rigs increased slightly but is expected to remain at a low level [20][23] - Demand: The operating rate of US refineries is in a seasonal recovery cycle, the operating rate of 16 European refineries is expected to recover, the operating rate of Chinese refineries has declined, and domestic refineries may face the pressure of reducing production [26][30][36] - Profit: The profits of domestic refineries have increased rapidly [42] - Inventory: EIA commercial crude oil inventory and Cushing area inventory increased, and gasoline inventory decreased. Crude oil production remaining high may lead to inventory accumulation [47][51] - Crack spread: The US crude oil crack spread has rebounded significantly [52] Future Outlook - The future geopolitical situation is unclear, and the risk of continued conflict is high. The IEA's release of strategic oil reserves is difficult to reverse the oil price trend. The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz is the key factor affecting the oil price. If the interruption continues, the oil price center is expected to move up further; if it is conditionally navigable, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil price is expected to decline [55]

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged significantly, continuing a trend of high volatility, with industry institutions indicating stronger investment demand in the coming year while industrial demand is expected to weaken [1][2] - On Wednesday, silver prices rose by 6.8%, increasing approximately one-third from last week's low [1][2] - The Silver Institute reported that due to a surge in investment demand overshadowing weakened jewelry demand and reduced silver usage in the solar sector, the silver market will experience a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year [1][2] Group 2 - Over the past year, silver prices have experienced dramatic fluctuations, driven by investment demand, with prices more than doubling [1][2] - The upward trend in silver prices was interrupted at the end of January by the largest single-day drop in history, but prices have since recovered, albeit with continued volatility [1][2] - As of 1:48 PM New York time, spot gold rose by 1.2% to $5084.28 per ounce, while silver increased by 4.2% to $84.12 per ounce, with platinum and palladium also seeing price increases [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining (601899) will continue to increase its gold and copper production, with current valuation levels being highly attractive. The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 46.1 to HKD 59, and for A-shares from RMB 56, maintaining an "overweight" rating for both H-shares and A-shares [1] Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surpassed Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of USD 4,750 per ounce for the second half of the year, with geopolitical risks, central bank signals, and ETF buying contributing to this trend. The bank emphasizes that under a bullish scenario, gold prices could reach USD 5,700 per ounce in the latter half of the year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Although Morgan Stanley had a positive outlook for metals, including copper, at the beginning of the year, prices have already exceeded the forecast of USD 12,200 per ton for the second quarter. The bank believes that supply tightness and a strong macroeconomic backdrop will continue to support copper prices, although short-term fluctuations may occur due to uncertainties in U.S. import trends and limited data from China before March [1] - The bank anticipates a supply deficit of approximately 600,000 tons in the copper market by 2026, with limited growth in mine supply being offset by new demand driven by data centers and energy storage systems [1]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downturn due to profit-taking and adjustments in trading rules, with both LME and SHFE nickel prices declining amid cautious market sentiment as the Chinese New Year approaches [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME nickel closed at $18,590, down $120/ton or 0.64%, with a trading volume of 12,783 contracts [1]. - SHFE nickel main contract 2602 closed at 147,000 CNY/ton, down 1,890 CNY/ton or 1.27% [1]. - SHFE nickel opened lower and continued to decline, reflecting weak market sentiment and profit-taking behavior [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The long-term narrative of the nickel market has shifted from "overcapacity" to "resource constraints," with significant production quota reductions from key resource countries expected to create a notable supply gap [3]. - Current market conditions show a mismatch between long-term supply constraints and short-term demand, with stainless steel maintaining steady demand while the battery sector experiences a temporary slowdown in procurement [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term nickel prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a range due to various macroeconomic factors and inventory changes, with market activity likely to decrease as the Chinese New Year approaches [4]. - Post-holiday, demand from downstream industries is anticipated to recover, potentially leading to a tightening supply chain and upward price movement, driven by the long-term supply gap logic [4].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper market is experiencing significant volatility, with spot prices surging above futures prices, indicating large-scale inventory withdrawals and a conflict between substantial long positions held by three entities and severely insufficient deliverable inventory [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Tom/next spread, a key indicator of immediate demand in the LME storage network, has seen a dramatic increase, with the spread rising by $64, marking one of the largest daily increases since 1998 [1]. - As of last Thursday, three independent entities held long positions that accounted for at least 30% of the open interest in the January contract, which translates to over 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total deliverable inventory in the LME storage network [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The current situation reflects a "physical squeeze" where short sellers are compelled to either find physical copper for delivery or incur high costs to roll over their positions [2]. - The long-term outlook for the copper market indicates structural supply tightness extending to 2028, with most monthly spreads showing backwardation, suggesting expectations of future supply shortages [3]. Group 3: Geographic Inventory Imbalance - Although global copper inventories are currently at sufficient levels, there is a significant regional imbalance, with a large concentration of inventory in U.S. warehouses due to previous tariff policies [6]. - Recent increases in LME copper inventory, including a rise of 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, were primarily driven by deliveries from Asian warehouses and small inflows into New Orleans [6].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have retreated from historical highs due to profit-taking by investors and the absence of new import tariffs on key minerals by the U.S. government [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Thursday, silver prices dropped by 7.3% but recovered most of the losses later [1][3]. - Silver prices had previously surged over 20% in the four trading days leading up to the drop, reaching a record high of $93.75 per ounce [1][3]. Group 2: U.S. Government Actions - President Trump decided against imposing comprehensive tariffs on key minerals, including silver and platinum, opting instead for bilateral negotiations and the idea of setting price floors [1][3]. - This decision followed months of investigation into whether imports posed a national security threat to the U.S. [1][3]. Group 3: Market Implications - Concerns over potential tariffs had previously led to a situation where some metal supplies, including silver, remained in U.S. warehouses, contributing to a global short squeeze last year and supporting prices into 2026 [1][3]. - Daniel Ghali, a senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, noted that the U.S. government's approach indicates a more targeted decision-making process in the future, alleviating fears of broad actions that could impact physical metal prices [1][3]. Group 4: Current Market Conditions - The New York Commodity Exchange currently holds approximately 434 million ounces of silver, an increase of about 100 million ounces compared to a year ago [4]. - Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC, expressed a positive mid-term outlook for silver, citing factors such as supply gaps, industrial consumption, and spillover demand from gold, while also advising caution due to the rapid recent price movements [4].

Group 1 - The global precious metals market is at a turning point, with gold expected to rise to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $100 per ounce in the first quarter of 2026 [1][2] - Key drivers of this bullish trend include heightened geopolitical risks, supply shortages in the physical market, and renewed doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which have collectively increased the premium on safe-haven assets [1][2] - Silver is anticipated to outperform gold due to the tightening conditions in the physical market, supported by the uncertainty surrounding the "Section 232" tariff rulings on critical minerals [3] Group 2 - Basic metals may gradually replace precious metals as the main players in the commodity market cycle, with aluminum and copper expected to show resilience in the second half of 2026 due to strong industrial demand [2][3] - Tactical selling may occur due to policy fluctuations, but each dip should be viewed as a buying opportunity within the overall bullish trend [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unprecedented surge in gold and silver prices, with silver experiencing a particularly dramatic increase due to various market factors [1][3][30] - On December 22, the international gold price broke through 997 yuan per gram, reaching a historical high, and stabilized around 1000 yuan per gram by December 29 [1][2] - Silver prices saw a significant increase, with a 36.59% rise over 23 trading days from November 21 to December 23, and reaching 17.1 yuan per gram by December 29 [3][4] Group 2 - The cumulative increase in international gold prices this year is approximately 70%, while silver has exceeded 170%, significantly outperforming gold [4] - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and expectations of continued interest rate cuts, leading to a more accommodative global monetary environment [6][7][8] - The decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, making them more attractive compared to cash [10][11] Group 3 - Domestic capital inflows have intensified, driven by a stagnant A-share market, prompting investors to seek certainty in gold and silver as safe-haven assets [14] - The global geopolitical landscape, including tensions in various regions, has heightened risk aversion, further driving investment into gold and silver [15][16] Group 4 - The industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly in emerging sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, while supply is constrained, leading to a structural shortage [19][22][23] - By 2025, the global silver supply is projected to face a significant shortfall of approximately 3600 tons, the largest in recent years [24] Group 5 - Recent policy changes in India allowing citizens to use silver as collateral for loans have led to a surge in silver imports, further driving up prices [27][28] - The tightness in the London silver market has created upward pressure on prices, as short positions face significant delivery challenges [29]