专家交流 - 钨价何去何从 20250824 摘要 全球钨需求稳定增长，年增长率约 1.2%，主要驱动力来自高端制造业， 特别是航天航空和军工领域，每年消耗约 11 万吨纯金属量的钨，相当 于 22 万吨标准吨的钨精矿。 中国是全球钨供应的主导者，提供约 80%的需求量。2024 年中国原生 钨精矿产量为 13.35 万吨，远不能满足市场需求，再生钨原料成为重要 补充，部分工厂再生物料使用比例已提升至 30%。 近期小金属市场供需变化导致钨价迅猛上涨，55 度钨精矿价格已达每吨 22 万元，APT 价格接近 33 万元，创历史新高，较 2024 年全年平均价 位上涨超过 50%。 钨价上涨的主要原因包括：自然资源部减少钨配额，商务部和海关总署 加强出口管控，国际市场涨价显著，以及俄乌战争等地缘政治冲突导致 军工需求预期增加，上游企业利润较高。 中国政府加强打击废旧金属走私力度，减少了废旧金属供应，加剧了市 场紧张局势。军工领域对钨的直接和间接消费需求均显著增加，大规模 军备竞赛将进一步推高需求。 Q&A 请简要介绍钨行业的产业链结构。 钨行业的产业链分为上游、中游和下游。上游包括采矿业、选矿业以及废物回 收加 ...

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - President Trump indicated that Japan is facing a serious rice shortage while not accepting U.S. rice, and plans to send a letter regarding tariffs to Japan [2] - U.S. Agriculture Secretary mentioned that Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow in the U.S. [2] - Media reports suggest U.S. officials are seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, aiming to reach a deal by July 9 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Updates - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel by early next year according to Morgan Stanley [2] - Gold has achieved its largest half-year increase since 2007 [2] - Chile's copper production in May increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 486,574 tons according to Chile's National Statistics Institute [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Insights - The combination of Trump's tariffs and low water levels has led to severe supply chain congestion in European ports, the worst since the pandemic began [2] - Kazakhstan's oil production is projected to exceed expectations by 2% this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to anticipated increases in output from large oil fields [2] - The European Commission's Vice President announced that the EU has reached a preliminary agreement on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products [2] Group 4: Market Forecasts - Citi forecasts that the supply gap in the gold market is expected to peak in Q3 2025, followed by a gradual decline due to decreasing investment demand [2] - Indonesia has raised its July reference price for crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton [2]