Core Viewpoint - The once-coveted high-rise elevator apartments are now facing unprecedented challenges, including a significant drop in prices and transaction volumes, with declines exceeding 30% from historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since 2022, the real estate market has entered a "volume and price decline" phase, with a sharp drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - The market trend reflects the foresight of industry figures like Cao Dewang, who warned about the potential devaluation of properties [1][3]. Group 2: Key Factors for Decline - **High Shared Area Costs**: The common area in elevator apartments can be as high as 25% or more, leading to hidden costs for buyers. For a 100 square meter apartment, usable space may only be 70-75 square meters, resulting in additional expenses that can reach tens of thousands of yuan [4]. - **Safety Risks**: High-rise buildings pose significant safety hazards during emergencies, as elevators may fail during disasters, and rescue operations are limited to certain heights, increasing evacuation difficulties [5][6]. - **Inconvenient Access**: Residents often face issues with elevator malfunctions and congestion during peak hours, leading to delays in daily commutes and impacting quality of life [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Aging elevator apartments are unlikely to see large-scale redevelopment due to high costs, leading to a situation where maintenance becomes a burden on residents. This could result in a demographic shift, with economically stable residents moving out, leaving behind lower-income tenants and potentially transforming these areas into "slums" [11].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market remains stagnant in 2025, with over 2 million second-hand homes listed nationwide and cities like Chongqing and Chengdu facing inventory backlogs exceeding 200,000 units [1] - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, old high-rise residential buildings have listing periods extending over two years, with transaction prices generally 15%-30% below market value [2] Group 1: Market Trends - High-rise apartments, once considered desirable, are rapidly depreciating in value, reflecting a shift in market perception [4] - The average price of elevator apartments in first-tier cities has dropped by 12% year-on-year in 2025, while step-up apartments have seen a 5% increase [8] Group 2: Structural Issues - High-rise buildings suffer from significant common area allocations, with only 70 square meters usable out of a 100 square meter purchase, leading to higher costs for residents [6] - Aging infrastructure poses a major concern, with elevators typically requiring major repairs after 8-10 years of heavy use, leading to increased maintenance costs for residents [7] Group 3: Safety and Maintenance Concerns - High-rise buildings face critical safety issues, particularly during emergencies, as fire escapes and elevators may become inoperable [7] - The lack of maintenance and deteriorating conditions in high-rise buildings can lead to a downward spiral, where poor living conditions further decrease property values [10] Group 4: Financial Implications - Banks are increasingly cautious, halving loan amounts for high-rise properties over 20 years old, pushing buyers towards full cash purchases [9] - The market for high-rise apartments is shrinking, with only 2 out of 30 listed units sold last year, indicating a significant lack of buyer interest [10]