曾经火爆的二三十层电梯房，如今正面临前所未有的危机。 电梯频繁故障、物业费用飙升、安全隐患加剧，加上成交低迷，高层房从热门资产变成负担。 曹德旺的预警正在应验，高层住宅的黄金时代真的要落幕了吗？ 2025年"金九银十"收官数据显示，百城二手住宅均价同比下跌7.6%，其中二三十层电梯房的跌幅尤为突出。 很多房龄超过十五年的高层住宅，挂牌价格一降再降，有些甚至比巅峰时期下跌三成以上。 在北京、深圳这些一线城市，同一小区里高层房源的价格明显低于低层房源，每平方米差价常常达到五千到八千元。 市场冷淡的现象直接体现在成交周期上。 低层住宅平均三个月左右就能卖出，而高层房往往需要半年甚至更久才有人问津。 有的挂牌超过一年依然无人看房，流动性大幅下降。 购房者观望情绪浓厚，高层住宅在二手市场的吸引力明显下降。 住进去的业主更为焦虑，电梯频繁故障、管道漏水、物业费不断上涨，使生活体验大打折扣。 有人曾认为高层房未来会贬值是危言耸听，但如今市场数据已经验证了曹德旺的预言。 购房者不仅面临经济损失，更有居住安全的隐忧。 市场上的二三十层电梯房正逐渐失去昔日的光环，从被疯抢的"香饽饽"变成了人人避之的"烫手山芋"。 北京朝阳区部分 ...

最新数据显示，中指研究院于10月30日发布报告，其监测的28个重点城市在10月份的楼市成交面积同比大幅下跌18.94%，环比也下降了5.7%。与此同时， 全国百城二手住宅价格环比下跌的城市数量高达98个，并且这一趋势已持续五个月之久，超过90个城市深陷二手房市场的深度调整期。 早在几年前，曹德旺就一针见血地指出，房子本质上不过是钢筋混凝土的堆砌，其价值终将贬低。他还曾提出忠告，建议手中握有多套房产的家庭尽快出售 多余房产，否则可能面临有价无市，既卖不出去也租不出去的窘境。 如今，房地产市场的走向似乎验证了他的预言。新房市场销售疲软，二手房挂牌量激增，房屋出售变得日益艰难。尤其值得注意的是，与多层住宅相比，二 三十层的电梯房可能更难逃脱"卖不掉，租不出"的困境，最终沦为"贫民窟"。究其原因，电梯房存在以下几点主要弊端： 楼市寒意渐浓，网红企业家曹德旺多年前的预言似乎正在应验。 高层电梯房的居民出行高度依赖电梯。一旦遭遇地震、火灾等突发状况，电梯往往会停止运行，居民只能通过楼梯逃生。这无疑大大增加了逃生难度，也延 缓了外部救援的速度。相比之下，多层住宅的居民则可以迅速下楼逃生，生存几率更高。 二、公摊面积过大： ...

Core Viewpoint - The once-coveted high-rise elevator apartments are now facing unprecedented challenges, including a significant drop in prices and transaction volumes, with declines exceeding 30% from historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since 2022, the real estate market has entered a "volume and price decline" phase, with a sharp drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions in the first quarter of 2025 [3]. - The market trend reflects the foresight of industry figures like Cao Dewang, who warned about the potential devaluation of properties [1][3]. Group 2: Key Factors for Decline - **High Shared Area Costs**: The common area in elevator apartments can be as high as 25% or more, leading to hidden costs for buyers. For a 100 square meter apartment, usable space may only be 70-75 square meters, resulting in additional expenses that can reach tens of thousands of yuan [4]. - **Safety Risks**: High-rise buildings pose significant safety hazards during emergencies, as elevators may fail during disasters, and rescue operations are limited to certain heights, increasing evacuation difficulties [5][6]. - **Inconvenient Access**: Residents often face issues with elevator malfunctions and congestion during peak hours, leading to delays in daily commutes and impacting quality of life [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Aging elevator apartments are unlikely to see large-scale redevelopment due to high costs, leading to a situation where maintenance becomes a burden on residents. This could result in a demographic shift, with economically stable residents moving out, leaving behind lower-income tenants and potentially transforming these areas into "slums" [11].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market remains stagnant in 2025, with over 2 million second-hand homes listed nationwide and cities like Chongqing and Chengdu facing inventory backlogs exceeding 200,000 units [1] - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, old high-rise residential buildings have listing periods extending over two years, with transaction prices generally 15%-30% below market value [2] Group 1: Market Trends - High-rise apartments, once considered desirable, are rapidly depreciating in value, reflecting a shift in market perception [4] - The average price of elevator apartments in first-tier cities has dropped by 12% year-on-year in 2025, while step-up apartments have seen a 5% increase [8] Group 2: Structural Issues - High-rise buildings suffer from significant common area allocations, with only 70 square meters usable out of a 100 square meter purchase, leading to higher costs for residents [6] - Aging infrastructure poses a major concern, with elevators typically requiring major repairs after 8-10 years of heavy use, leading to increased maintenance costs for residents [7] Group 3: Safety and Maintenance Concerns - High-rise buildings face critical safety issues, particularly during emergencies, as fire escapes and elevators may become inoperable [7] - The lack of maintenance and deteriorating conditions in high-rise buildings can lead to a downward spiral, where poor living conditions further decrease property values [10] Group 4: Financial Implications - Banks are increasingly cautious, halving loan amounts for high-rise properties over 20 years old, pushing buyers towards full cash purchases [9] - The market for high-rise apartments is shrinking, with only 2 out of 30 listed units sold last year, indicating a significant lack of buyer interest [10]